Why Japan opened itself up to immigration

And why your country probably will, too.

Screen cap from a video by Noah Smith, Yoyogi Park, 2023

Noah’s First Law of Japan Discourse is that if a debate in the U.S. goes on long enough, someone will eventually cite Japan as support for their position.

Noah’s Second Law of Japan Discourse is that 80% of such arguments will be wrong.

Both of these laws were firmly on display in the recent battle over high-skilled immigration. The Tech Right pointed out (correctly) that skilled immigration is essential for America to retain its competitive edge in high-tech industries. Some on the Nativist Right tried to argue with that America would do just as well if it banned immigration from India and put more resources toward training its own STEM workers. When it became apparent that this was a ridiculous assertion (U.S. tech workers are already well-trained, but the U.S. has only 4.4% of world population, so our domestic talent pool is limited), some on the Nativist Right switched to a new argument: Economic prosperity is unimportant compared to racial homogeneity.

Predictably, Japan was trotted out as an example of why this is a good idea:

As a professional Guy Who Knows Slightly More About Japan Than the Average Westerner Does, I feel it is incumbent upon me to debunk this latest piece of mythmaking. As with most such misconceptions, the idea that Japan kept itself racially pure, and remained economically successful despite this choice, contains a few small grains of truth wrapped in many thick layers of lazy stereotyping, wishful thinking, and out-of-date information.

The small grains of truth here are:

1. Japan remained unfavorable toward immigration for longer than most rich countries.

2. Japan remained a nice place to live in the 1990s and 2000s despite not taking in many immigrants.

But the key facts that bust the Nativist Right’s myth of Japan are:

1. Japan has opened itself up to large-scale immigration since the early 2010s.

2. Japan has suffered a severe and prolonged stagnation in wages and living standards, and this was the main reason it opened up to immigration

The key to understanding Japan is that in most respects, it’s actually a pretty normal developed country, despite the different visual style and cultural quirks. Its evolution on immigration hasn’t resembled the U.S., Canada, or Australia, but it has been roughly similar to that of many European countries.

And that means the story of Japanese immigration is a complex one. The aggregate economic impacts are still unclear. The country was divided on the question of whether to take in immigrants, and with good reason — a large enough flood of foreigners, especially from places more culturally distinct from Japan, will definitely put strains on the country’s famously orderly society. Those strains won’t be exactly the same as in Europe, but some of the broad contours will be similar.

In fact, I would say that I’m personally more apprehensive about those changes than the average Japanese person. Still, I think it’s important that we not tell ourselves myths about Japanese policy, the Japanese economy, or Japan’s racial homogeneity. Comparing ourselves to a fantasy Japan will actively hurt our ability to shape a real future for America.

The story of how Japan opened up to immigration