As someone from the tech world who had never been involved with defense before, I've recently been helping out on a defense startup. As an element of what you said on "Rebuild the U.S. defense-industrial base": Having software backing every process has made a lot of American companies efficient and strong. It seems the DoD spends a relatively tiny, tiny percentage of their budget on software relative to private-sector companies and, where it does, doesn't have the procurement procedures in place to do it as well as companies to.
Software eating everything is one of America's greatest strengths and the DoD should take advantage of this strength too (with appropriate cybersecurity measures... which I admit is very hard.)
We will need to do quite a bit more to restore the Arsenal of Democracy. I refer you to the outline set forth in "American's Advanced Manufacturing Problem - and How to Fix It," by David Adler and William B. Bonvillian, American Affairs, Fall 2023, Vol. VIII, No. 3, pp. 3-30. Also, the tax and financial incentives that influence how executives decide upon making capital investments must be drastically changed.
Overall, count me as a conservative who would agree with you on all of these, even #5. But they're not easy:
1) "Putin’s territorial ambitions in Europe go well beyond Ukraine." You keep saying this as though it's obviously true, but it is not. Russia appears to have neither the political interest nor military ability to pick a fight with a NATO country. Europe should take the lead on Ukraine because it's in their backyard and our checkbook is masking that reality. As long as we keep writing bankrolling them, the EU will keep pretending that Putin is Hitler.
2) "a large chunk of the GOP now views Ukraine as a culture-war issue" You sometimes misdiagnose Republican motivations, but this one is a whopper even for you. Republicans are tired of protecting Ukraine's borders and ignoring our own. That is not a "culture war" issue; it's a basic rule of law issue. Either you control who enters your country or you cease to have a country.
3) "the defenders of liberal democracy are still at a disadvantage in the global war of ideas" What political party are they in? "A [Enlightenment] liberal government telling the story of what it means to be liberal" only works if you actually a government that believes in Enlightenment liberalism, Locke's value-neutral state. Western governments and parties (whether Left or Right) no longer appear to. As a side note: "liberal-democracy" has always been an oxymoron.
4) We can have India as an ally, but not if the US government keeps making culture war issues (LGBT, trans, womens' rights, abortion, etc...) the litmus test for US friendship. Modi's BJP is a Hindu version of Orban's Fidesz. We treat Hungary as if it's a fascist dictatorship despite the objective fact that it is not. If we go down that road with India, we will lose them. Losing Hungary is no big deal; losing India would be catastrophic.
We need to break up the conglomeration of defense industry into smaller units, individual companies, that will have a reason to compete against each other, instead of just be part of a massive group.
Nothing says “sign up for the axis of good guys” like dropping a long-standing close ally while it’s fighting a theocratic genocidal mafia next door, amirite?
The shipbuilding part is incredibly important. Earlier this year 85% of subcontractors for the construction of Aircraft carriers said they had difficulties finding workers. I have a feeling this is primarily caused by reliance on skilled machining in these types of industries. What we really need is a super capital intensive, advanced manufacturing firm to enter the market and start competing for these bids. My concern however, is that the imposition of soft (or hard) SBA requirements on the Navy makes this type of entrance very difficult. Additionally, at least for contracting with Huntington Ingalls Industries, if you want to even be considered as a supplier, you have to wait for 18-24 months with no promise of orders at the end of that period. So yes, we need to make it easier to build factories, but we also need to make sure that, in as many places as possible, we expedite the process of creative destruction within the industrial base.
TL;DR -- Takes too long for navy contractors to accept new subcontractors, so we don't see replacement of dead firms, nor competition with the existing ones.
The argument for turning our defense priority to Asia is compelling, but hanging our Israeli allies out to dry is not going to help us make the case for the alliances we need to do that successfully. We can’t always do things exactly as we want.
RE: TikTok forced sale.. I don't agree with it for two reasons.
First, I believe that the free world's biggest *flex* is allowing precisely the type of communications asymmetry that Noah decries. We let China run TikTok in the US, even though it's banned in China (alongside virtually all Western social apps). A direct corollary of the first amendment is the right to "receive information from any source". The message is- *they* don't trust you to see all the news and think for yourself, but *we* do. I think it would be a huge mistake to stoop down to their level on this one.
Second, I don't think TikTok is really all that potent of a weapon. Being a social media app for "young people" is kind of a curse. Ask Facebook. Young people get older and then the new young people want a new app that's free of the oldies.
There was probably a genuine moment, around ten years ago, when many folks were new to social media and relatively easily fooled by fake news. That was a long time ago. Nowadays, everyone knows that social media is a cesspool of misinfo. We are attuned to the biases of each platforms. TikTok is not known for political content, but the present legislation treats the prospect of such content as a latent threat. People would notice if TikTok started pushing a political agenda. It would lead to ridicule. People would sign up just to see the silly propaganda, and then make fun of it on YouTube or Instagram.
We allow openly declared communists, Islamists, and white nationalists to print opinion pieces in the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, etc. The most cogent anti-American content you can find in English comes directly from our university faculty, paid for largely with taxpayer dollars. The most viral anti-American social media posts are written by Americans and posted on apps owned and operated by Americans. We allow all of this because we believe in free speech, and crucially, we believe in the ability of our citizenry to process information from competing sources and decide for themselves what is reality. TikTok is a drop in the bucket of the anti-American media landscape. We are throwing away our biggest flex, stooping to their low level, to weed out an app that is totally insignificant to the political information landscape. Let's not!
Another extremely insightful and relevant post by Noah on the steps needed to militarily, economically and geopolitically create the strength sufficient to deter Xi from moving on Taiwan and launching what will likely become WW3.
But Noah needs to rethink his phrasing regarding, "We need to focus on China, while the EU helps Ukraine."
Ukraine *is* the current war, and expanding our munitions manufacturing capacity to supply them in their fight against Russia, not only updates our own stockpiles with brand new gear, but stands ready to supply our own forces for a >2026 war in defense of Taiwan. In other words, regarding Ukraine, it's 'all hands on deck'. Putin needs to be stopped cold, stopped NOW, and his armies bled white to force him into a long period of neutrality during which he will unwilling/unable to join Xi in China's war. This also sends a strong message to Taiwan--and our potential allies India and Vietnam--that we can and do protect our friends. Especially when a Democrat is in the WH.
No one wants a kinetic war with the US. Our opening capability is devastating. China would love to trigger a US buildup so we spend a lot of money, while they work on their economy. This has been their strategy for a long time. We should focus on information and economic warfare.
India is a rising power. Yes, build Indonesian (and other parts of Asia) economic competition against China. As well as Africa. That may well include ship building, for US defense, out of SK, Japan, etc. There is really no reason for US to build this capacity when we have partners that can do it right now.
We can keep sending money to Ukraine, but that war will not end unless Europe or we step up and put our troops/air assets into the mix. We need to call Putin's bluff. Bribe his generals to capitulate and hit with a level of force he can not tolerate. No one wants to do that, but that is what would be required to end it. We could probably end it in a week with our B2s dropping JDAMs. But we won't and we do not have the political fortitude to take the risk. We will keep delaying with more money and UKR deaths.
Just on a pure policy level - I want to make absolutely clear that I wholeheartedly support increasing ALL immigration, INCLUDING from India - I’m slightly skeptical of eliminating the bias towards small countries.
My thinking is that making sure we reserve space for ALL countries helps make America more diverse. It enriches America’s gloriously beautiful melting pot when we say, “Oh, you’re from some tiny island nation or landlocked principality where people barely ever make it to America? Sure thing, front of the line! WE WILL ADD YOUR DISTINCTIVENESS TO OUR OWN!”.
I’m not coming at this from a restrictionist POV; I’m sincerely interested in finding ways to satisfy both objectives: (1) keeping America diverse and (2) increasing ties with potential allies like India. I just don’t want us to sacrifice the 1 in the rush to achieve 2.
"And helping Israel prosecute its fairly brutal campaign in Gaza weakens America’s moral standing in the world, especially in the eyes of majority-Muslim Asian countries like Indonesia and Malaysia."
You really need to add something about the sitting Israeli officials who have openly advocated for removing all of the locals from Gaza and repopulating it with more amenable settlers. Your silence on people like Ben Gvir (the National Security Minister) advocating for Gazans to leave and Jewish settlements to come in, is a glaring ommission in the linked piece.
And, even if you have a .... "eh" view of the hard liners in the Israeli government who have spent the past 30 years talking about fully annexing the West Bank and Gaza..., Indonesians and Malaysians are also paying attention.
“So U.S. leaders have to continue to push very hard for deepening integration with India — investment, trade, diplomatic coordination, military exercises, multilateral alliances and regional pacts, and so on.”
Indian-Americans have deep roots in U.S. businesses, as well as in the STEM sector and healthcare professionals. U.S. businesses are establishing important high-tech footprints in Malaysia and Indonesia. Japan also has a presence (e.g., Samsung). The largest Silicon Valley corporations have been working to establish ties and build within India. I believe the incentives for U.S. businesses in these countries are compelling.
Increasingly, the Mideast countries are aligning with Israel as a defense against Iranian influence and power. This is similar to the EU stepping up its role, via NATO, as a defense against Russia. Note the cooperation of Mideast intelligence and military assistance with Israel when Iran fired missiles and released armed drones. Ten years ago, this would have been unthinkable.
It seems to me countries that have been sitting on the fence for years are being forced to pick a side.
In general I agree with you, but sorry, #3 is absurd on multiple levels. Fox et al want the US government to be weak and the country divided; just look at their behavior. We can argue about their motivations, but the impact is obvious, and quite detrimental to US security. As for the NYT, their endless bothsiderism and relentless refusal to recognize the danger that MAGA and RW media represent to the US and liberal democracy makes them part of the problem, and very unlikely to be part of the solution.
I can't argue with a word that Noah has written about rebuilding our defense industrial base, or about cultivating allies in the Asia Pacific region. If Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India do not want to find themselves under Chinese domination, they need to join us to preserve another way of life.
Standing together as a counterweight to China is going to be a century-long task.
For more thoughts see my post: It's Hostile, It's Real, but Don't Call It Cold Warhttps://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/its-hostile-its-real-but-dont-call
Does Tiktok divestiture really going to stop Chinese and Russian propaganda? Weren’t they already distributing it freely using Facebook, Twitter and Youtube? Not clear to me how this will change anything really
As someone from the tech world who had never been involved with defense before, I've recently been helping out on a defense startup. As an element of what you said on "Rebuild the U.S. defense-industrial base": Having software backing every process has made a lot of American companies efficient and strong. It seems the DoD spends a relatively tiny, tiny percentage of their budget on software relative to private-sector companies and, where it does, doesn't have the procurement procedures in place to do it as well as companies to.
Software eating everything is one of America's greatest strengths and the DoD should take advantage of this strength too (with appropriate cybersecurity measures... which I admit is very hard.)
We will need to do quite a bit more to restore the Arsenal of Democracy. I refer you to the outline set forth in "American's Advanced Manufacturing Problem - and How to Fix It," by David Adler and William B. Bonvillian, American Affairs, Fall 2023, Vol. VIII, No. 3, pp. 3-30. Also, the tax and financial incentives that influence how executives decide upon making capital investments must be drastically changed.
Overall, count me as a conservative who would agree with you on all of these, even #5. But they're not easy:
1) "Putin’s territorial ambitions in Europe go well beyond Ukraine." You keep saying this as though it's obviously true, but it is not. Russia appears to have neither the political interest nor military ability to pick a fight with a NATO country. Europe should take the lead on Ukraine because it's in their backyard and our checkbook is masking that reality. As long as we keep writing bankrolling them, the EU will keep pretending that Putin is Hitler.
2) "a large chunk of the GOP now views Ukraine as a culture-war issue" You sometimes misdiagnose Republican motivations, but this one is a whopper even for you. Republicans are tired of protecting Ukraine's borders and ignoring our own. That is not a "culture war" issue; it's a basic rule of law issue. Either you control who enters your country or you cease to have a country.
3) "the defenders of liberal democracy are still at a disadvantage in the global war of ideas" What political party are they in? "A [Enlightenment] liberal government telling the story of what it means to be liberal" only works if you actually a government that believes in Enlightenment liberalism, Locke's value-neutral state. Western governments and parties (whether Left or Right) no longer appear to. As a side note: "liberal-democracy" has always been an oxymoron.
4) We can have India as an ally, but not if the US government keeps making culture war issues (LGBT, trans, womens' rights, abortion, etc...) the litmus test for US friendship. Modi's BJP is a Hindu version of Orban's Fidesz. We treat Hungary as if it's a fascist dictatorship despite the objective fact that it is not. If we go down that road with India, we will lose them. Losing Hungary is no big deal; losing India would be catastrophic.
We need to break up the conglomeration of defense industry into smaller units, individual companies, that will have a reason to compete against each other, instead of just be part of a massive group.
Nothing says “sign up for the axis of good guys” like dropping a long-standing close ally while it’s fighting a theocratic genocidal mafia next door, amirite?
The shipbuilding part is incredibly important. Earlier this year 85% of subcontractors for the construction of Aircraft carriers said they had difficulties finding workers. I have a feeling this is primarily caused by reliance on skilled machining in these types of industries. What we really need is a super capital intensive, advanced manufacturing firm to enter the market and start competing for these bids. My concern however, is that the imposition of soft (or hard) SBA requirements on the Navy makes this type of entrance very difficult. Additionally, at least for contracting with Huntington Ingalls Industries, if you want to even be considered as a supplier, you have to wait for 18-24 months with no promise of orders at the end of that period. So yes, we need to make it easier to build factories, but we also need to make sure that, in as many places as possible, we expedite the process of creative destruction within the industrial base.
TL;DR -- Takes too long for navy contractors to accept new subcontractors, so we don't see replacement of dead firms, nor competition with the existing ones.
The argument for turning our defense priority to Asia is compelling, but hanging our Israeli allies out to dry is not going to help us make the case for the alliances we need to do that successfully. We can’t always do things exactly as we want.
RE: TikTok forced sale.. I don't agree with it for two reasons.
First, I believe that the free world's biggest *flex* is allowing precisely the type of communications asymmetry that Noah decries. We let China run TikTok in the US, even though it's banned in China (alongside virtually all Western social apps). A direct corollary of the first amendment is the right to "receive information from any source". The message is- *they* don't trust you to see all the news and think for yourself, but *we* do. I think it would be a huge mistake to stoop down to their level on this one.
Second, I don't think TikTok is really all that potent of a weapon. Being a social media app for "young people" is kind of a curse. Ask Facebook. Young people get older and then the new young people want a new app that's free of the oldies.
There was probably a genuine moment, around ten years ago, when many folks were new to social media and relatively easily fooled by fake news. That was a long time ago. Nowadays, everyone knows that social media is a cesspool of misinfo. We are attuned to the biases of each platforms. TikTok is not known for political content, but the present legislation treats the prospect of such content as a latent threat. People would notice if TikTok started pushing a political agenda. It would lead to ridicule. People would sign up just to see the silly propaganda, and then make fun of it on YouTube or Instagram.
We allow openly declared communists, Islamists, and white nationalists to print opinion pieces in the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, etc. The most cogent anti-American content you can find in English comes directly from our university faculty, paid for largely with taxpayer dollars. The most viral anti-American social media posts are written by Americans and posted on apps owned and operated by Americans. We allow all of this because we believe in free speech, and crucially, we believe in the ability of our citizenry to process information from competing sources and decide for themselves what is reality. TikTok is a drop in the bucket of the anti-American media landscape. We are throwing away our biggest flex, stooping to their low level, to weed out an app that is totally insignificant to the political information landscape. Let's not!
Another extremely insightful and relevant post by Noah on the steps needed to militarily, economically and geopolitically create the strength sufficient to deter Xi from moving on Taiwan and launching what will likely become WW3.
But Noah needs to rethink his phrasing regarding, "We need to focus on China, while the EU helps Ukraine."
Ukraine *is* the current war, and expanding our munitions manufacturing capacity to supply them in their fight against Russia, not only updates our own stockpiles with brand new gear, but stands ready to supply our own forces for a >2026 war in defense of Taiwan. In other words, regarding Ukraine, it's 'all hands on deck'. Putin needs to be stopped cold, stopped NOW, and his armies bled white to force him into a long period of neutrality during which he will unwilling/unable to join Xi in China's war. This also sends a strong message to Taiwan--and our potential allies India and Vietnam--that we can and do protect our friends. Especially when a Democrat is in the WH.
No one wants a kinetic war with the US. Our opening capability is devastating. China would love to trigger a US buildup so we spend a lot of money, while they work on their economy. This has been their strategy for a long time. We should focus on information and economic warfare.
India is a rising power. Yes, build Indonesian (and other parts of Asia) economic competition against China. As well as Africa. That may well include ship building, for US defense, out of SK, Japan, etc. There is really no reason for US to build this capacity when we have partners that can do it right now.
We can keep sending money to Ukraine, but that war will not end unless Europe or we step up and put our troops/air assets into the mix. We need to call Putin's bluff. Bribe his generals to capitulate and hit with a level of force he can not tolerate. No one wants to do that, but that is what would be required to end it. We could probably end it in a week with our B2s dropping JDAMs. But we won't and we do not have the political fortitude to take the risk. We will keep delaying with more money and UKR deaths.
Just on a pure policy level - I want to make absolutely clear that I wholeheartedly support increasing ALL immigration, INCLUDING from India - I’m slightly skeptical of eliminating the bias towards small countries.
My thinking is that making sure we reserve space for ALL countries helps make America more diverse. It enriches America’s gloriously beautiful melting pot when we say, “Oh, you’re from some tiny island nation or landlocked principality where people barely ever make it to America? Sure thing, front of the line! WE WILL ADD YOUR DISTINCTIVENESS TO OUR OWN!”.
I’m not coming at this from a restrictionist POV; I’m sincerely interested in finding ways to satisfy both objectives: (1) keeping America diverse and (2) increasing ties with potential allies like India. I just don’t want us to sacrifice the 1 in the rush to achieve 2.
"And helping Israel prosecute its fairly brutal campaign in Gaza weakens America’s moral standing in the world, especially in the eyes of majority-Muslim Asian countries like Indonesia and Malaysia."
You really need to add something about the sitting Israeli officials who have openly advocated for removing all of the locals from Gaza and repopulating it with more amenable settlers. Your silence on people like Ben Gvir (the National Security Minister) advocating for Gazans to leave and Jewish settlements to come in, is a glaring ommission in the linked piece.
And, even if you have a .... "eh" view of the hard liners in the Israeli government who have spent the past 30 years talking about fully annexing the West Bank and Gaza..., Indonesians and Malaysians are also paying attention.
“So U.S. leaders have to continue to push very hard for deepening integration with India — investment, trade, diplomatic coordination, military exercises, multilateral alliances and regional pacts, and so on.”
Indian-Americans have deep roots in U.S. businesses, as well as in the STEM sector and healthcare professionals. U.S. businesses are establishing important high-tech footprints in Malaysia and Indonesia. Japan also has a presence (e.g., Samsung). The largest Silicon Valley corporations have been working to establish ties and build within India. I believe the incentives for U.S. businesses in these countries are compelling.
Increasingly, the Mideast countries are aligning with Israel as a defense against Iranian influence and power. This is similar to the EU stepping up its role, via NATO, as a defense against Russia. Note the cooperation of Mideast intelligence and military assistance with Israel when Iran fired missiles and released armed drones. Ten years ago, this would have been unthinkable.
It seems to me countries that have been sitting on the fence for years are being forced to pick a side.
In general I agree with you, but sorry, #3 is absurd on multiple levels. Fox et al want the US government to be weak and the country divided; just look at their behavior. We can argue about their motivations, but the impact is obvious, and quite detrimental to US security. As for the NYT, their endless bothsiderism and relentless refusal to recognize the danger that MAGA and RW media represent to the US and liberal democracy makes them part of the problem, and very unlikely to be part of the solution.
I can't argue with a word that Noah has written about rebuilding our defense industrial base, or about cultivating allies in the Asia Pacific region. If Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India do not want to find themselves under Chinese domination, they need to join us to preserve another way of life.
Standing together as a counterweight to China is going to be a century-long task.
For more thoughts see my post: It's Hostile, It's Real, but Don't Call It Cold Warhttps://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/its-hostile-its-real-but-dont-call
Does Tiktok divestiture really going to stop Chinese and Russian propaganda? Weren’t they already distributing it freely using Facebook, Twitter and Youtube? Not clear to me how this will change anything really