Nov 22, 2023·edited Nov 22, 2023Liked by Noah Smith
"But I think 2024 will be a bit like 1976 — a small resurgence of unrest that makes many people feel like the 2010s never ended."
And for that reason alone, I'm bailing on all public social media in 2024. It's just gonna be far, far too much yelling, screaming, and general anger for me to take. Best to stay out of there.
I believe it. It's all before my time (born in 1983), but I recently just looked at this Wikipedia page and yup... 60s and 70s dwarf every decade that came after that.
“Weather’s attacks began three months later, and by 1971 protest bombings had spread across the country. In a single eighteen-month period during 1971 and 1972 the FBI counted an amazing 2,500 bombings on American soil, almost five a day.”
The median age of the country was something like 21 back then. Imagine living in a country where 1/3 of the people are strong young adults who are pissed off and impulsive because of all the lead in their bloodstreams.
I disagree, and the number of people participating in 2020 greatly those involved in civil unrest in 1968. Technology might have been the cause, but considering that the population is so much older, it's far more remarkable.
Also, the US was in jeopardy throughout 2020 in a way it just wasn't in 1968. America is a far more polarized and divided society today than in the 60s. 2024/25 could be even worse.
Back in 1968, polarization all-pervasive, with deep divisions within individual families. I was 14 then so let me tell you that 2023 (or 2020) is no 1968. Lots of bad stuff, but nothing like Vietnam, the draft, assassinations, chaotic political conventions, and far more destroy urban unrest. (No pandemics though, so there was that at least.)
Polarization is well studied, and Americans are far more polarized today than in 1968. Yes, there were less bombings in 2020 than 1968, but the Floyd riots were the most destructive in American history.
As bad as Vietnam, the draft, and assassinations were, they pale in comparison to the half million extra American deaths that were caused by political polarization in 2020-22. As for serious political violence, Jan 2021 definitely wins that one.
I worry that the degree of danger the US faced during its 3 crises of 2020 will never be fully appreciated.
A half million deaths caused by political polarization? You mean, vaccine refusal? Not sure I'd include that.
More people died in the 1968 riots than after George Floyd. As for property damage value, I guess we'd have to take into account how much larger and richer the nation is now than in 1968.
And, as someone who witnessed it up close and personal, I'll just close by noting: Vietnam. Draft.
(But I grant you that the pandemic was pretty bad, though we're coming out of it very well.)
Nov 23, 2023·edited Nov 23, 2023Liked by Noah Smith
As someone who has been here since almost the beginning, thank you for three engaging and informative years.
I am sitting here in Taipei and I can’t help but be struck by two things:
1) How much poorer people are individually. Most people live in apartments and they have much less space per person. Not that many people own cars, at least in Taipei. It might just be cultural, but there is much less display of wealth.
2) How much wealthier they are in public goods. The transit infrastructure is truly first world, with clean, reliable, and affordable subways, a HSR line, and an extensive bus system. The roads are pot hole free, sidewalks are clean and schools are very well maintained.
They probably wouldn’t like to be called more socialist than the US but they have made a different trade off than we have.
Also a striking difference from San Francisco is how clean and crime free the city is. People leave stuff in the basket of their bicycles when they go into a shop or cafe. It’s completely safe to walk around alone at night. The only sign at all of disorder was the very rare graffiti and one homeless person I saw.
I talked to some Taiwanese-American young men here and they remarked how much better their standard of living and quality of life was on a teacher’s salary than it was in the US. I have some Taiwanese friends and they all plan to move back some day. I have children in the US, which will probably keep me there, but if I did not, I would consider it too. Learning Chinese would be quite the challenge, though. Taiwan is definitely doing something right.
> Not that many people own cars, at least in Taipei.
Taiwan's annual household income is $17,000 a year. For the household. And cars are a global product that (modulo taxes) cost basically the same everywhere in the world. You don't get to pay 50% less for a Camry just because you buy it in Taipei or Hanoi.
Even in America something like 30-40% of households that earn $17,000 a year don't have a car and America is much more car-dependent than Taiwan. At least in Taiwan you can use a moped but (culturally) that's not really an option in the US.
I think one of the under-researched/discussed issues (especially online) is why Americans don't know/realise/talk-as-if they are vastly wealthier than basically everyone else on Earth. Like Americans aren't "slightly" richer than the French, they are 50% richer, which is massive.
I'm still struggling to find good explanations for the gap between actual economic performance and public pessimism on the economy in the US. I think the inflation hangover and partisanship (GOP voters think we're in the depression, basically) are the big ones, but also:
- It may be that Millennials are always going to poll as somewhat negative on the economy for the same reason Boomers do on crime and public safety because it's what the country was like during their formative years and they don't update their priors.
- Rent has gone up a lot and mortgage interest rates are a lot higher even than in 2019, especially in a lot of markets that weren't experiencing much of a housing crisis before. This is probably the biggest phantom factor.
- This isn't brought up much, but I suspect that a lot of people in the top two income quintiles actually liked the the pre-2020 slack labor market and ZIRP economy quite a bit more than the one we have now where people like service workers are making big income gains. I would expect right-leaning voters to be pretty shameless about saying this, but a lot of liberals who used to say things like "I'd be happy to pay extra for my Starbucks order if the barista earned what they do in Denmark" didn't really mean it.
- The government demonstrated in 2020 that it was capable of huge welfare state expansion when the shit hit the fan (expanded UI, eviction moratoriums, expanded child tax credit, etc.) that's largely been retracted.
- Vibes are a huge things. I see people repeat falsehoods about the economy (that record poverty rates are a thing, record numbers of people are working second and third jobs when it's actually pretty low relatively) and when people rebuff them they just straight up don't believe it. Dems in general have a big problem with outreach here - it doesn't matter what the facts are, it matters how people feel. If people don't feel you're meeting them there they'll tell you off, and it doesn't really matter WHY they feel how they feel.
In the end I am guessing it's just inflation. People in monetarily stable societies generally have very strong folk-economic beliefs about what things "should" cost that are hard to loosen. Which makes sense - inflation barely existed over a perceptible time frame before 1900 and has only been an intermittent thing in the lucky parts of the world since then.
I read one other idea that I would add to your list. People are still traumatized by the pandemic years. People lost jobs and family members and were isolated for long periods. They are still processing that, so all glasses tend to look half empty.
I agree, and this is 100% the source of the unaccounted-for vibes. Probably also a source of low Biden approval ratings as well. The fact that Trump is an avowed autocrat and Biden probably the best president since LBJ may be less salient than people missing the world as it was in 2019. I get it, my own life was infinitely better back then. But still...
"Especially if Trump loses again" I'd say "If and only if Trump loses again". I guess it's still a less than 50 % chance that Trump would carry through on his threats to execute political opponents, but much more than 50% that he will turn the force of the state against then. The guardrails that mostly stopped him last time won't be there in 2025.
“We’ve lived through radical technological change our whole lives, but AI is a different sort of beast entirely. In some ways, it’s almost like magic — a whole new way of controlling the world without necessarily understanding the mechanisms of control.”
Indeed, AI has produced the first major artificial firing of a CEO, followed by a real-world mass resignation, followed by a real-world BoD re-shuffle. I can’t imagine Altman not chafing at having Microsoft as a boss.
The relationship between the US and China has waffled between cold and lukewarm since Xi took power in 2012. Xi's goals haven't changed— his mellow vibe at the recent meeting In San Francisco is more designed to seek rapprochement with Western Capital to fix his ailing economy, not really seeking any friendship with United States. I agree with Noah that we should not be fooled by these slight oscillations in a relationship that is sure to be at odds for many years to come.
However, I still think that Cold War 2 is a very bad way to talk about the important tensions between the US, China, Russia, and Iran.
Why voluntarily climb back into that linguistic straitjacket? Why look back to a time when there was a lot more zero-sum thinking? Can't we come up with something better?
I try to answer these questions in my history-focused substack “As Time Goes By." See "It's Hostile, It's Real, but Don't Call It Cold War"
Noah, at some point could you write about the deficit, the debt, and considerations re raising taxes? I feel like the topic only gets discussed by politicians, and it would be helpful to have the voices of more economists on the issue.
Personally I'm concerned, and I think the math on raising top tax rates is easy - it's just the politics that is hard. But is that the right opinion?
This is not Noah's fault since he uses ChatGPT to spell-check his essays. I've just backspaced twice to change "it's" to "its", because my phone adds the apostrophe by default.
If AI is so smart, why doesn't it do this? At this point even regular autocorrect should be capable of cleaning it up as soon as you press send.
Also: plurals of proper nouns don't take an apostrophe. ("No more Vietnam's." See what my phone just did?) Autocorrect has destroyed everyone's intuitions on this, I suppose because it's a stochastic parrot and proper nouns take a possessive much more often than a plural. Can Silicon Valley not fix this?
I'm sure that in 10 years, likely less, "it's" will be widespread and acceptable in the possessive form. Hopefully this will be done irregardless of grammarians' objections while the non-grammarians among us could care less.
Maybe. But I support an abundance agenda for correct grammar/spelling.
It's like when you visit a website that says "You have 1 items in your shopping cart". I was about ten years old when I learned to write code in BASIC to prevent that.
"It's/its" is slightly harder but if AGI destroys humanity before it fixes that, I will be annoyed.
Can’t believe its been near a year since I’ve been following you Noah.
I was a depressed progressive. Climate Change, Racial Politics, the Pandemic...all of it did a proper number on my mental health and well-being.
Reading your writing, your optimism and your analysis on the world has filled me with excitement and anticipation. I have shared your articles to many, many friends and family. You’re a rockstar! Thank you so much for your positivity in this cynical and nihilistic world.
Consistently my favorite Substack. Have been really liking the geopolitical posts, the futurism, and the leftists / tankies content. Also, you changed my mind about solar! Thanks and keep up the great work!
In general I agree your thoughts, but I have to say I don't feel you have listed the one big caveat concerning India. This is their adherence to the cast system and the systematic persecution of Musslims. The present prime minister of India, Mr. Modi and his party, the BJP, have risen to power partially by inciting hatred of Muslims. The Indian police routinely turn their backs on religious riots that result in the deaths of Muslims and the rapes of Muslim women. In California they were able to block the governor from signing a bill outlawing the cast system in California. This is an issue that usually flies under the radar, but is becoming increasently more important. It is true that the cast system was outlawed in India, but it still operates among the Hindu majority - both in India and as well as in America. This is an issue that needs far more attention than it is presently receiving.
"But I think 2024 will be a bit like 1976 — a small resurgence of unrest that makes many people feel like the 2010s never ended."
And for that reason alone, I'm bailing on all public social media in 2024. It's just gonna be far, far too much yelling, screaming, and general anger for me to take. Best to stay out of there.
And of course, the unrest we had even at the peak of summer 2020 paled in comparison to the late 60s/early 70s.
I believe it. It's all before my time (born in 1983), but I recently just looked at this Wikipedia page and yup... 60s and 70s dwarf every decade that came after that.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States
“Weather’s attacks began three months later, and by 1971 protest bombings had spread across the country. In a single eighteen-month period during 1971 and 1972 the FBI counted an amazing 2,500 bombings on American soil, almost five a day.”
It’s almost impossible to fathom today.
The median age of the country was something like 21 back then. Imagine living in a country where 1/3 of the people are strong young adults who are pissed off and impulsive because of all the lead in their bloodstreams.
I disagree, and the number of people participating in 2020 greatly those involved in civil unrest in 1968. Technology might have been the cause, but considering that the population is so much older, it's far more remarkable.
Also, the US was in jeopardy throughout 2020 in a way it just wasn't in 1968. America is a far more polarized and divided society today than in the 60s. 2024/25 could be even worse.
There may be more people participating, but there are fewer actual explosions and murders.
Back in 1968, polarization all-pervasive, with deep divisions within individual families. I was 14 then so let me tell you that 2023 (or 2020) is no 1968. Lots of bad stuff, but nothing like Vietnam, the draft, assassinations, chaotic political conventions, and far more destroy urban unrest. (No pandemics though, so there was that at least.)
Polarization is well studied, and Americans are far more polarized today than in 1968. Yes, there were less bombings in 2020 than 1968, but the Floyd riots were the most destructive in American history.
As bad as Vietnam, the draft, and assassinations were, they pale in comparison to the half million extra American deaths that were caused by political polarization in 2020-22. As for serious political violence, Jan 2021 definitely wins that one.
I worry that the degree of danger the US faced during its 3 crises of 2020 will never be fully appreciated.
A half million deaths caused by political polarization? You mean, vaccine refusal? Not sure I'd include that.
More people died in the 1968 riots than after George Floyd. As for property damage value, I guess we'd have to take into account how much larger and richer the nation is now than in 1968.
And, as someone who witnessed it up close and personal, I'll just close by noting: Vietnam. Draft.
(But I grant you that the pandemic was pretty bad, though we're coming out of it very well.)
Still think there won't be much yelling and screaming on PBS.
As someone who has been here since almost the beginning, thank you for three engaging and informative years.
I am sitting here in Taipei and I can’t help but be struck by two things:
1) How much poorer people are individually. Most people live in apartments and they have much less space per person. Not that many people own cars, at least in Taipei. It might just be cultural, but there is much less display of wealth.
2) How much wealthier they are in public goods. The transit infrastructure is truly first world, with clean, reliable, and affordable subways, a HSR line, and an extensive bus system. The roads are pot hole free, sidewalks are clean and schools are very well maintained.
They probably wouldn’t like to be called more socialist than the US but they have made a different trade off than we have.
Also a striking difference from San Francisco is how clean and crime free the city is. People leave stuff in the basket of their bicycles when they go into a shop or cafe. It’s completely safe to walk around alone at night. The only sign at all of disorder was the very rare graffiti and one homeless person I saw.
I talked to some Taiwanese-American young men here and they remarked how much better their standard of living and quality of life was on a teacher’s salary than it was in the US. I have some Taiwanese friends and they all plan to move back some day. I have children in the US, which will probably keep me there, but if I did not, I would consider it too. Learning Chinese would be quite the challenge, though. Taiwan is definitely doing something right.
> Not that many people own cars, at least in Taipei.
Taiwan's annual household income is $17,000 a year. For the household. And cars are a global product that (modulo taxes) cost basically the same everywhere in the world. You don't get to pay 50% less for a Camry just because you buy it in Taipei or Hanoi.
Even in America something like 30-40% of households that earn $17,000 a year don't have a car and America is much more car-dependent than Taiwan. At least in Taiwan you can use a moped but (culturally) that's not really an option in the US.
I think one of the under-researched/discussed issues (especially online) is why Americans don't know/realise/talk-as-if they are vastly wealthier than basically everyone else on Earth. Like Americans aren't "slightly" richer than the French, they are 50% richer, which is massive.
Noah did a great blog post about this.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-generally-richer-than
I'm still struggling to find good explanations for the gap between actual economic performance and public pessimism on the economy in the US. I think the inflation hangover and partisanship (GOP voters think we're in the depression, basically) are the big ones, but also:
- It may be that Millennials are always going to poll as somewhat negative on the economy for the same reason Boomers do on crime and public safety because it's what the country was like during their formative years and they don't update their priors.
- Rent has gone up a lot and mortgage interest rates are a lot higher even than in 2019, especially in a lot of markets that weren't experiencing much of a housing crisis before. This is probably the biggest phantom factor.
- This isn't brought up much, but I suspect that a lot of people in the top two income quintiles actually liked the the pre-2020 slack labor market and ZIRP economy quite a bit more than the one we have now where people like service workers are making big income gains. I would expect right-leaning voters to be pretty shameless about saying this, but a lot of liberals who used to say things like "I'd be happy to pay extra for my Starbucks order if the barista earned what they do in Denmark" didn't really mean it.
- The government demonstrated in 2020 that it was capable of huge welfare state expansion when the shit hit the fan (expanded UI, eviction moratoriums, expanded child tax credit, etc.) that's largely been retracted.
- Vibes are a huge things. I see people repeat falsehoods about the economy (that record poverty rates are a thing, record numbers of people are working second and third jobs when it's actually pretty low relatively) and when people rebuff them they just straight up don't believe it. Dems in general have a big problem with outreach here - it doesn't matter what the facts are, it matters how people feel. If people don't feel you're meeting them there they'll tell you off, and it doesn't really matter WHY they feel how they feel.
In the end I am guessing it's just inflation. People in monetarily stable societies generally have very strong folk-economic beliefs about what things "should" cost that are hard to loosen. Which makes sense - inflation barely existed over a perceptible time frame before 1900 and has only been an intermittent thing in the lucky parts of the world since then.
I read one other idea that I would add to your list. People are still traumatized by the pandemic years. People lost jobs and family members and were isolated for long periods. They are still processing that, so all glasses tend to look half empty.
I agree, and this is 100% the source of the unaccounted-for vibes. Probably also a source of low Biden approval ratings as well. The fact that Trump is an avowed autocrat and Biden probably the best president since LBJ may be less salient than people missing the world as it was in 2019. I get it, my own life was infinitely better back then. But still...
it’s massive inequality.
Thanks for all of your hard work---your success from this blog is very well deserved. :)
"Especially if Trump loses again" I'd say "If and only if Trump loses again". I guess it's still a less than 50 % chance that Trump would carry through on his threats to execute political opponents, but much more than 50% that he will turn the force of the state against then. The guardrails that mostly stopped him last time won't be there in 2025.
“We’ve lived through radical technological change our whole lives, but AI is a different sort of beast entirely. In some ways, it’s almost like magic — a whole new way of controlling the world without necessarily understanding the mechanisms of control.”
Indeed, AI has produced the first major artificial firing of a CEO, followed by a real-world mass resignation, followed by a real-world BoD re-shuffle. I can’t imagine Altman not chafing at having Microsoft as a boss.
At last word Altman is returning to His old company.
Thanks for the round up. I’ve been spreading your blogs like an apostle. Keep up the smarty rants. 👍🏼
Wonderful post for Thanksgiving eve. Has put me in an optimistic and thankful mood.
The relationship between the US and China has waffled between cold and lukewarm since Xi took power in 2012. Xi's goals haven't changed— his mellow vibe at the recent meeting In San Francisco is more designed to seek rapprochement with Western Capital to fix his ailing economy, not really seeking any friendship with United States. I agree with Noah that we should not be fooled by these slight oscillations in a relationship that is sure to be at odds for many years to come.
However, I still think that Cold War 2 is a very bad way to talk about the important tensions between the US, China, Russia, and Iran.
Why voluntarily climb back into that linguistic straitjacket? Why look back to a time when there was a lot more zero-sum thinking? Can't we come up with something better?
I try to answer these questions in my history-focused substack “As Time Goes By." See "It's Hostile, It's Real, but Don't Call It Cold War"
https://kathleenweber.substack.com/p/its-hostile-its-real-but-dont-call
I'm currently working on a brief history of the relationship between the "West and the Rest." Coming soon.
Great Holiday Greeting letter
Noah, at some point could you write about the deficit, the debt, and considerations re raising taxes? I feel like the topic only gets discussed by politicians, and it would be helpful to have the voices of more economists on the issue.
Personally I'm concerned, and I think the math on raising top tax rates is easy - it's just the politics that is hard. But is that the right opinion?
"Its Belt and Road initiative", not "it's".
This is not Noah's fault since he uses ChatGPT to spell-check his essays. I've just backspaced twice to change "it's" to "its", because my phone adds the apostrophe by default.
If AI is so smart, why doesn't it do this? At this point even regular autocorrect should be capable of cleaning it up as soon as you press send.
Also: plurals of proper nouns don't take an apostrophe. ("No more Vietnam's." See what my phone just did?) Autocorrect has destroyed everyone's intuitions on this, I suppose because it's a stochastic parrot and proper nouns take a possessive much more often than a plural. Can Silicon Valley not fix this?
Rant over.
I'm sure that in 10 years, likely less, "it's" will be widespread and acceptable in the possessive form. Hopefully this will be done irregardless of grammarians' objections while the non-grammarians among us could care less.
Maybe. But I support an abundance agenda for correct grammar/spelling.
It's like when you visit a website that says "You have 1 items in your shopping cart". I was about ten years old when I learned to write code in BASIC to prevent that.
"It's/its" is slightly harder but if AGI destroys humanity before it fixes that, I will be annoyed.
Can’t believe its been near a year since I’ve been following you Noah.
I was a depressed progressive. Climate Change, Racial Politics, the Pandemic...all of it did a proper number on my mental health and well-being.
Reading your writing, your optimism and your analysis on the world has filled me with excitement and anticipation. I have shared your articles to many, many friends and family. You’re a rockstar! Thank you so much for your positivity in this cynical and nihilistic world.
Cheers 🍻!
Consistently my favorite Substack. Have been really liking the geopolitical posts, the futurism, and the leftists / tankies content. Also, you changed my mind about solar! Thanks and keep up the great work!
In general I agree your thoughts, but I have to say I don't feel you have listed the one big caveat concerning India. This is their adherence to the cast system and the systematic persecution of Musslims. The present prime minister of India, Mr. Modi and his party, the BJP, have risen to power partially by inciting hatred of Muslims. The Indian police routinely turn their backs on religious riots that result in the deaths of Muslims and the rapes of Muslim women. In California they were able to block the governor from signing a bill outlawing the cast system in California. This is an issue that usually flies under the radar, but is becoming increasently more important. It is true that the cast system was outlawed in India, but it still operates among the Hindu majority - both in India and as well as in America. This is an issue that needs far more attention than it is presently receiving.
Can I add to your list of things to write about and request your Econ 102 thoughts on Thailand and Vietnam?