I still don’t understand why we can go to Venezuela (with all its potential for domestic political blowback, congrats on ur reelection Rubio) and we can’t make it clear to the Saudis and jumped up gulf princes that either they get the oil Wells pumping or kiss goodbye to the fleet in the gulf, any weapons deals & all those US Bases
Can we distinguish between "we'll sell phones, even to people ruled by dictators" and "we'll loan money, even to dictators"? I dislike the idea of Wall Street becoming a piggy bank for the next Ortega or whomever.
Money is a good way for dictators to stay in power. Is it really a good idea for us to open our wallets wide even to the worst governments?
Or am I naive to try to separate "trade" from "finance"?
One other point: In terms of GOP hatred of the Latin American Left, I think you need to remember that the GOP has had no meaningful foreign policy for more than a decade, not since 2004, when they turned everything about the Iraq War into a club with which to beat their domestic rivals. You see this with their bifurcation about Russia right now. Some of them want to say Biden is being too aggressive, Putin isn't so bad, we should avoid war; others want to say Biden is being too timid, and we should start a no-fly zone even if that risks nuclear war. But _all_ of them know that everything is awful and it's Biden's fault.
The reason to attack Leftism in Latin America is that they can then link Leftists in Latin America to Democrats and other liberals or progressives at home, and say that they're baaaaaaaaad. Marco Rubio's understanding of Venezuela and Cuba extends only as far as "what do I have to say to get people in Miami to vote for me?" :-P
So, leaving aside the realpolitik aspect of reasons why we might want to just tolerate the Venezuelan regime and work with them towards gradual reforms, I want to push back on your questioning of the legitimacy of Guaidó's claim.
Guaidó followed the process in his country's constitution. Let's imagine an alternate reality where Trump had cowed the SoSs of Georgia and Arizona into "finding" the additional votes he needed. He and Pence were all set to get him re-installed. But the day before the electoral count, a bunch of GOP House and Senate members have an attack of conscience*, and an emergency session of Congress rushes through an impeachment of both Trump and Pence, making Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker, the President. She immediately appoints Biden as her VP, and resigns, ending the crisis.
* Yes, I know this is the least realistic part of this imagined scenario. /lolsob/
Pelosi's role in this scenario would be very much parallel to what's happened with Guaidó. His assumption of the Presidency was authorized by the legislature in the manner prescribed in their constitution, and it is supposed to be temporary -- if they ever get to hold real elections again, he would be banned from participating. Before all of this happened, he had been considered a potential serious candidate in an election. He sacrificed that on the principle that the fraudulent re-election of Maduro should be blocked.
Maybe you have other reasons to dislike or disagree with Guaidó, but I don't think questioning the process here is reasonable. He and the National Assembly did exactly what they were supposed to here, in the face of an autogolpe. They just lost. "Possession is nine tenths of the law." If we can't get a legitimate regime, we just have to make what bargains we can with the illegitimate one, and try to cajole them into returning to normalcy. I don't think Guaidó's faction wants to start a civil war, and nobody wants to invade. So that's where we're at.
I think the "stick" should mainly be reserved to "Don't make deals with Russia and China, and we won't back regime-change against you, but we're also not going to pretend that we think you're a good person, you little autocrat you."
Budding up to Cuba and Venezuela is by far the most mysterious foreign policy idea. Chavez/Maduro destroyed oil production so effectively that it would take a decade of investment to go back to where it was[1], and no sane oil company is going to risk political instability for that long (either the regime nationalizes production again, or the US elects GOP which restores sanctions). Cuba is so unpopular in Latin America that leftists have to promise they're not like that to be electable - the post itself has plenty of examples. If that's the case, than how will rapprochement help improve opinion of US in the hemisphere?
Nor can I agree with the idea America has been waging a war on Latin America leftism. The US did nothing when leftists won in Chile or Brazil. The exceptions are two actual authoritarian regime, and one guy who rhetorically looked like a rerun of Chavez.
I can't see any reason why the admin should accept the domestic blowback for basically nothing.
This doesn’t make sense to me. We effectively have a good neighbor policy for everyone except for the two dictatorships. I’m not sure what normalizing relations with them will do for Latin America overall.
Also, it’s pretty cool seeing that Mapp is as I work there regularly. The choice in South America is not really between leftist and rightists. It’s always about corruption. Corruption is what drives these elections. Basically they seesaw from one side to the other because they are all corrupt. There is this constant hope that this young guy from this party is going to put an end to the corruption.
I never take these favorable views of the United States polls seriously. The United States as a whole as a concept is generally widely admired. And a huge huge huge portion would love to have a green card. But also know the people who have lived in the United States and who moved back to South America just because life in the culture there is so much more interesting.
Anyway, Columbia is probably my favorite country. Argentina is awesome even though their government sucks especially with their fake exchange rate. I am going to chili for the first time this summer. Can’t wait.
I think Morales did a ton of good and was inspiring in a lot of ways and overall a great president, but man, why'd he have to go and eliminate term limits so he could run again? You can see how that would get people riled up, right? He couldn't find a successor to hand off the presidency to? I still buy that the US was wrong to condemn the election right before the coup, and god knows I feel very "you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to 'em"" about Jeanine Añez and the other Christian supremacist coup orchestrators, but man, if Morales had just accepted the legitimacy of term limits, I feel like this could have been avoided.
Looking foward for your article on how Latin American could make the jump to manufacturing. In Brazil there are people (including economists) who think we should 'abandon' manufacturing and focus on primary sector activities. I'm really skeptical about this view, so it would be nice to read about a consistent policy for manufacturing.
It’s a dangerous spiral opening trade and normalize relationships with murderous dictators like Maduro. Let’s remember that the Vice President is the head of Cartel de los Soles.
The US has never cared much about the neighbors but lifting all the sanctions would bring nothing good for the US or the Venezuelan people.
Instead of appeasing brutal and repressive regimes like Venuezuela (and Cuba), perhaps the current administration could have refrained from being a bitch to domestic energy production.
Pity, too, that Merkel shut down nuclear energy in her country.
The original "Alliance for Progress" of 1962 was designed and implemented to reduce and stop Soviet and Cuban influence in Latin America during the Cold War Era. After J.F.K assasination, it lost momentum, faded and was terminated.
A XXI Century "New Alliance for Progress" for Central American and Caribbean countries is very needed nowadays. Such "Alliance" will provide governments with auditable funding, permitting the poor population of those countries to have opportunities to fairly better their living. It will also provide funding and technical knowledge to fight Corruption, Drug trafficking and the devastating effects of Tropical Hurricanes.
If Security and living conditions greatly improve South of the Rio Grande, Migration up North, to the USA will be drastically reduced. It won't be an easy task but once policies are properly setup, desired results will be produced.
A part of the Caribbean geography and long ago, the "Adversary", Cuba could be invited to engage in the making up of that international "Alliance". Having it's own Security Concerns ahead, the USA must pragmatically first engage with Cuba. For that the US Foreign Department must re-evaluate its (Foreign) Policies for the Region.
Letter sent to editor of America's Quarterly on line publication on 9 th of May. 2021.
Also sent to Vice POTUS K.Harris previously on April 2021.
The original "Alliance for Progress" of 1962 was designed and implemented to reduce and stop Soviet and Cuban influence in Latin America during the Cold War Era. After J.F.K assasination, it lost momentum, faded and was terminated.
A XXI Century "New Alliance for Progress" for Central American and Caribbean countries is very needed nowadays. Such "Alliance" will provide governments with auditable funding, permitting the poor population of those countries to have opportunities to fairly better their living. It will also provide funding and technical knowledge to fight Corruption, Drug trafficking and the devastating effects of Tropical Hurricanes.
If Security and living conditions greatly improve South of the Rio Grande, Migration up North, to the USA will be drastically reduced. It won't be an easy task but once policies are properly setup, desired results will be produced.
A part of the Caribbean geography and long ago, the "Adversary", Cuba could be invited to engage in the making up of that international "Alliance". Having it's own Security Concerns ahead, the USA must pragmatically first engage with Cuba. For that the US Foreign Department must re-evaluate its (Foreign) Policies for the Region.
Letter sent to editor of America's Quarterly on line publication on 9 th of May. 2021.
Also sent to Vice POTUS K.Harris previously on April 2021.
I still don’t understand why we can go to Venezuela (with all its potential for domestic political blowback, congrats on ur reelection Rubio) and we can’t make it clear to the Saudis and jumped up gulf princes that either they get the oil Wells pumping or kiss goodbye to the fleet in the gulf, any weapons deals & all those US Bases
Can we distinguish between "we'll sell phones, even to people ruled by dictators" and "we'll loan money, even to dictators"? I dislike the idea of Wall Street becoming a piggy bank for the next Ortega or whomever.
Money is a good way for dictators to stay in power. Is it really a good idea for us to open our wallets wide even to the worst governments?
Or am I naive to try to separate "trade" from "finance"?
Shouldn’t policy in South America also be focused on preservation of the Amazon and other rainforests? Have we given up on that?
One other point: In terms of GOP hatred of the Latin American Left, I think you need to remember that the GOP has had no meaningful foreign policy for more than a decade, not since 2004, when they turned everything about the Iraq War into a club with which to beat their domestic rivals. You see this with their bifurcation about Russia right now. Some of them want to say Biden is being too aggressive, Putin isn't so bad, we should avoid war; others want to say Biden is being too timid, and we should start a no-fly zone even if that risks nuclear war. But _all_ of them know that everything is awful and it's Biden's fault.
The reason to attack Leftism in Latin America is that they can then link Leftists in Latin America to Democrats and other liberals or progressives at home, and say that they're baaaaaaaaad. Marco Rubio's understanding of Venezuela and Cuba extends only as far as "what do I have to say to get people in Miami to vote for me?" :-P
So, leaving aside the realpolitik aspect of reasons why we might want to just tolerate the Venezuelan regime and work with them towards gradual reforms, I want to push back on your questioning of the legitimacy of Guaidó's claim.
Guaidó followed the process in his country's constitution. Let's imagine an alternate reality where Trump had cowed the SoSs of Georgia and Arizona into "finding" the additional votes he needed. He and Pence were all set to get him re-installed. But the day before the electoral count, a bunch of GOP House and Senate members have an attack of conscience*, and an emergency session of Congress rushes through an impeachment of both Trump and Pence, making Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker, the President. She immediately appoints Biden as her VP, and resigns, ending the crisis.
* Yes, I know this is the least realistic part of this imagined scenario. /lolsob/
Pelosi's role in this scenario would be very much parallel to what's happened with Guaidó. His assumption of the Presidency was authorized by the legislature in the manner prescribed in their constitution, and it is supposed to be temporary -- if they ever get to hold real elections again, he would be banned from participating. Before all of this happened, he had been considered a potential serious candidate in an election. He sacrificed that on the principle that the fraudulent re-election of Maduro should be blocked.
Maybe you have other reasons to dislike or disagree with Guaidó, but I don't think questioning the process here is reasonable. He and the National Assembly did exactly what they were supposed to here, in the face of an autogolpe. They just lost. "Possession is nine tenths of the law." If we can't get a legitimate regime, we just have to make what bargains we can with the illegitimate one, and try to cajole them into returning to normalcy. I don't think Guaidó's faction wants to start a civil war, and nobody wants to invade. So that's where we're at.
I think the "stick" should mainly be reserved to "Don't make deals with Russia and China, and we won't back regime-change against you, but we're also not going to pretend that we think you're a good person, you little autocrat you."
Budding up to Cuba and Venezuela is by far the most mysterious foreign policy idea. Chavez/Maduro destroyed oil production so effectively that it would take a decade of investment to go back to where it was[1], and no sane oil company is going to risk political instability for that long (either the regime nationalizes production again, or the US elects GOP which restores sanctions). Cuba is so unpopular in Latin America that leftists have to promise they're not like that to be electable - the post itself has plenty of examples. If that's the case, than how will rapprochement help improve opinion of US in the hemisphere?
Nor can I agree with the idea America has been waging a war on Latin America leftism. The US did nothing when leftists won in Chile or Brazil. The exceptions are two actual authoritarian regime, and one guy who rhetorically looked like a rerun of Chavez.
I can't see any reason why the admin should accept the domestic blowback for basically nothing.
[1]
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/venezuelas-new-oil-production-target-is-completely-unrealistic-1030985750
This doesn’t make sense to me. We effectively have a good neighbor policy for everyone except for the two dictatorships. I’m not sure what normalizing relations with them will do for Latin America overall.
Also, it’s pretty cool seeing that Mapp is as I work there regularly. The choice in South America is not really between leftist and rightists. It’s always about corruption. Corruption is what drives these elections. Basically they seesaw from one side to the other because they are all corrupt. There is this constant hope that this young guy from this party is going to put an end to the corruption.
I never take these favorable views of the United States polls seriously. The United States as a whole as a concept is generally widely admired. And a huge huge huge portion would love to have a green card. But also know the people who have lived in the United States and who moved back to South America just because life in the culture there is so much more interesting.
Anyway, Columbia is probably my favorite country. Argentina is awesome even though their government sucks especially with their fake exchange rate. I am going to chili for the first time this summer. Can’t wait.
I think Morales did a ton of good and was inspiring in a lot of ways and overall a great president, but man, why'd he have to go and eliminate term limits so he could run again? You can see how that would get people riled up, right? He couldn't find a successor to hand off the presidency to? I still buy that the US was wrong to condemn the election right before the coup, and god knows I feel very "you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to 'em"" about Jeanine Añez and the other Christian supremacist coup orchestrators, but man, if Morales had just accepted the legitimacy of term limits, I feel like this could have been avoided.
North and South American Free Trade Agreement when??
Looking foward for your article on how Latin American could make the jump to manufacturing. In Brazil there are people (including economists) who think we should 'abandon' manufacturing and focus on primary sector activities. I'm really skeptical about this view, so it would be nice to read about a consistent policy for manufacturing.
It’s a dangerous spiral opening trade and normalize relationships with murderous dictators like Maduro. Let’s remember that the Vice President is the head of Cartel de los Soles.
The US has never cared much about the neighbors but lifting all the sanctions would bring nothing good for the US or the Venezuelan people.
Hi Noah
Thanks for talking about LatAm!
Really looking forward to your post about industrial production in LatAm.
Perhaps even a post about crypto in El Salvador?
Instead of appeasing brutal and repressive regimes like Venuezuela (and Cuba), perhaps the current administration could have refrained from being a bitch to domestic energy production.
Pity, too, that Merkel shut down nuclear energy in her country.
A "NEW ALLIANCE FOR PROGRESS"
The original "Alliance for Progress" of 1962 was designed and implemented to reduce and stop Soviet and Cuban influence in Latin America during the Cold War Era. After J.F.K assasination, it lost momentum, faded and was terminated.
A XXI Century "New Alliance for Progress" for Central American and Caribbean countries is very needed nowadays. Such "Alliance" will provide governments with auditable funding, permitting the poor population of those countries to have opportunities to fairly better their living. It will also provide funding and technical knowledge to fight Corruption, Drug trafficking and the devastating effects of Tropical Hurricanes.
If Security and living conditions greatly improve South of the Rio Grande, Migration up North, to the USA will be drastically reduced. It won't be an easy task but once policies are properly setup, desired results will be produced.
A part of the Caribbean geography and long ago, the "Adversary", Cuba could be invited to engage in the making up of that international "Alliance". Having it's own Security Concerns ahead, the USA must pragmatically first engage with Cuba. For that the US Foreign Department must re-evaluate its (Foreign) Policies for the Region.
Letter sent to editor of America's Quarterly on line publication on 9 th of May. 2021.
Also sent to Vice POTUS K.Harris previously on April 2021.
A "NEW ALLIANCE FOR PROGRESS"
The original "Alliance for Progress" of 1962 was designed and implemented to reduce and stop Soviet and Cuban influence in Latin America during the Cold War Era. After J.F.K assasination, it lost momentum, faded and was terminated.
A XXI Century "New Alliance for Progress" for Central American and Caribbean countries is very needed nowadays. Such "Alliance" will provide governments with auditable funding, permitting the poor population of those countries to have opportunities to fairly better their living. It will also provide funding and technical knowledge to fight Corruption, Drug trafficking and the devastating effects of Tropical Hurricanes.
If Security and living conditions greatly improve South of the Rio Grande, Migration up North, to the USA will be drastically reduced. It won't be an easy task but once policies are properly setup, desired results will be produced.
A part of the Caribbean geography and long ago, the "Adversary", Cuba could be invited to engage in the making up of that international "Alliance". Having it's own Security Concerns ahead, the USA must pragmatically first engage with Cuba. For that the US Foreign Department must re-evaluate its (Foreign) Policies for the Region.
Letter sent to editor of America's Quarterly on line publication on 9 th of May. 2021.
Also sent to Vice POTUS K.Harris previously on April 2021.