A healthy economy, strong productivity growth, and a continuing tech boom.
Yeah, you're probably right dude. But it takes a decade to realize the last one was good. Taibbi and Kern were punching against this narrative this week, but it will likely work out like this.
My students now have prospects that were hardly a dream ten years ago, and this is in a D2 school. They're getting snapped up like candy by corps who want to "train to standard", which means they're going to be killers in the market five years from now once they have their legs beneath them. As someone like you who had to knife it out in the early 2000s (pre-crash), I'd trade a whole bucket of my education for their opportunity now.
If you want to be in the office and make connections now, the world is yours for the taking in the USA. If you wanna gripe on TicToc or X about affordable housing and flexible work schedules, then you're entering a seller's market.
The next gen is getting it. America is going to be incredibly strong.
This coming from an unapologetic, apathetic Xer who thinks generation theory is complete BS baked up by some posers who didn't do the math (or the reading) and just needed to rimshot tenure.
Regarless, I'm optimistic. Keep up the good work bud.
Labor shortages and high wages drive productivity growth. It’s actually in businesses long term interests not to have labor that’s too cheap.
Another promising development is the increasing positivity around nuclear power worldwide.
Construction numbers are approaching economics of scale levels for some reactor types, leaving nuclear's first of a kind trap experienced by Europe and the US in the 2010s.
I'd love to get your take on this NYT article. It attempts to explain why Trump has better economic marks than Biden.
Obviously past fiscal deficit spending and current fiscal spending didn’t contribute to inflation. Aggregate demand doesn’t matter for prices obviously, and the rate increases didn’t remove demand from the market, because obviously prices aren’t dictated by supply and demand. This was a joke article. Hope your future ones are better, or you’ll lose a subscriber.
MRNA vaccines are great and all but when do we get the parties and legal cocaine/laudinum they had (or better designer drugs)?
1. More immigration
2. Make permits easier
3. More YIMBY
Do these and we really have a roaring 20s.
"Using vaccines to treat cancer will reduce disease burden"
Keeping more people alive longer will not reduce overall health care burden. It will just shift to some other problem. We humans all die, but we fight it like hell.
Noah, I agree that this that the economy is not on a government spending fueled sugar high, but what are you smoking?
Be sure someone is holding the string that keeps you attached to Mother Earth.
Seems like the govt is paying a lot for its debt now. (Over $600 billion a year) And increasing investment in military stuff will increase it further, rather than paying it down. Is this going to drag on the economy or cause other problems?
I propose the McDonald's test:
Hourly wages at my local McD's start at $15 an hour.
But a Big Mac meal is $10 and change.
Can somebody who works at a McDonalds afford to eat there? It looks to me like the answer is no because a single extra value meal amounts to roughly 1/8 of a total day's wages.
That is why so many workers, especially on the lower end of the spectrum, are sour on the economy.
I don’t understand the reasoning behind “The percentage of Americans age 18-64 receiving Social Security Disability payments was only 3.9% in 2022, compared to 4.8% in 2013. Vaccination reduces the severity of Covid, which likely prevents long-term disability due to lung scarring.”
Because COVID did not exist in 2013, the population had 100% protection against COVID, far more than any vaccine or vaccination program could provide. Unless the existence of COVID by itself was somehow crowding out other sources of disability while, thanks to vaccination, causing less disability than those other causes, this doesn’t add up.
Good analysis. I would add one more important factor in the analysis of why we are in the current goldilocks situation....The Covid-19 pandemic. Of course, much like a major war, the pandemic was a tragedy. However, much like a major war, the pandemic accelerated technology (especially around automation/virtualization) which would have taken years (decades) to happen "naturally." The current jump in productivity can be directly traced to the rapid absorption of these technologies in the economy.
Um, remember what happed after the roaring twenties?
This strikes me as bordering on delusional given tech layoffs. Rehiring is slow because the easy money made possible by low interest rates has evaporated in the face of the Fed's 5.25% rate.
Speaking of which my subjective with regards to the Fed rate is that corporate America is holding its breath and waiting for the other shoe to drop. Look for the second quarter of 2024.
Are you considering the Billions that government spent during the pandemic. And how in Canada,
The slight intrest rate hikes had people panicking,
Because the average Household is up to its eyeballs in Mortgage Debt because they thought the housing market was never ending? They had to get in? Car loans for two cars because both had to have personal transportation.? Credit Cards maxed to the limit, at what 28%
Right, my first house in 1985 had a Mortgage at 12% my GMC 1500 had a loan at 14%
Well what do you think would happen if interest rates went to 8%"never mind 12%?
People are already returning loaned vehicles because they cant keep up payments.People are turning to trustees to consolidate debts,
Food Prices soaring in the post two years.
Couple that with the commercial vacancy rates because of The Pandemic. Commercial Real Estate Companies are suffering.
I think you, we, should be careful , as someone who has a house paid, no credit card debt, and money in the bank, my recommendation to you at this point in time, is to act and think, like your walking on eggshells. Why do I say that, you ask? its the intangibles, they are always the things or events that can put a wrench into the best laid plans