109 Comments

I live in Pennsylvania, in a very purple suburb full of kind, friendly, modest, very normal people. Over the past two weeks a non-trivial number of my neighbors have taken their Trump/Vance signs off of their lawns. Regular everyday Americans HATE this kind of rhetoric and are embarrassed by it.

I suspect that the reason Vance keeps doubling down on this terrible strategy is because (like the people who run my industry: tech and venture capital) he is hopelessly addicted to Twitter, and consequently gets his dose of daily dopamine from the fawning bluecheck replies that bubble up to the top of his notification stream. We can refer to Noah's exchange with Joe Lonsdale as an example of the quality of thinking this engenders in our "thought leaders" (I laughed out loud at how much his support for his arguments is essentially "Elon told me so"... a "free-thinking contrarian" indeed!)

For as much time MAGA rails about "out of touch Democrat elites", their movement seems to be completely unaware of how alienating these messages are to the suburban Midwestern moderates that will decide this election.

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Fingers crossed you are right man, like you I also agree that the average American is actually embarrassed by racism and doesn't condone it.

I've also seen a slight number of signs disappearing here in GA, but lets see if their voting pattern changes. Maybe people are just slightly embarrassed by supporting someone so vocally racist, instead of keeping it subtle.

I've long said that Elon and JD Vance are chronically online in the worst possible way and still don't see that online interactions and news don't replace reality. Regarding your final point, I think its really funny how JD Vance and people like him keep spouting rhetoric about hating Coastal or Democrat elites, but they marry them, attend the Ivy League universities, make millions in coastal cities like San Francisco, and in the case like JD choose to run with a NY Coastal elite as a VP nominee. Make it make sense to me.

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Great to hear us about the signs disappearing!

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I spent roughly the first 30 years of my life in PA and am heartened to see that there’s still some common sense and decency there.

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Maybe JD Vance will claim that the signs are actually being stolen by Haitian migrants and are being burned as fuel to barbecue the cats and dogs.

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Cheeky monkeys! Can't watch them too closely!

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Alienating to moderates, yes. Because they regularly consume from MSM outlets like CNN that report both on such fantastical claims--and the strong rebuttals from Ohio Republican officials denying said claims.

But the FOX News-led Alt-Right mediasphere, that includes Newsmax, OANN, etc., pitches a very different story. One the one hand they report that, so far, there are no credible reports of Haitians eating pets. But then imply you can't really trust such denials, by jumping shamelessly back into racist Culture War tropes demonizing immigrants, and attacking "Fake News" outlets like CNN for calling JD & Trump liars. https://www.mediamatters.org/newsmax/newsmax-host-runs-widely-debunked-racist-claims-about-haitian-immigrants-and-pets

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We already knew Donald Trump is a pathological liar and malignant narcissist whose fragile ego requires constant self-praise and worship by his cult and young women like Laura Loomer. It is apparent that J.D. Vance, who has earned the nickname "Shady", lacks even the moral courage of Mike Pence, who may have been an embarrassing toady but showed he was not completely unprincipled, in the end. Vance, reportedly a Catholic convert, acts as though unaware, or not caring, that bearing false witness against your neighbor is something that God commands you not to do. He showed intelligence 8 years ago when he called Trump "cultural heroin" and "a cynical asshole" but is now atoning for his heresy and proving to be just another very cynical, hypocritical political hack, of which unfortunately the Republican Party currently has a huge surplus. I am supporting Harris in order to prevent the election of two blatantly dishonest demagogues to lead our country.

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JD Vance is willing to do whatever it takes to be close to power, in my opinion he is even more despicable than Trump because he has no real belief system.

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Eh, Trump doesn’t either. Do you really think he truly believes in an abortion ban?

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Trump genuinely appreciates flattery and complements, which in a weird way is still pleasant to see. Even when his enemies praise him, he goes out of his way to compliment them back.

Here's an excerpt from an article yesterday:

“He was so nice to me yesterday. In one way I sort of wish the call wasn’t made, because I do feel a little — he’s so nice. ‘I’m so sorry about what happened,’ and all that,” Trump said at a campaign town hall in Michigan, recounting his call with Biden on Monday.

“Same with Kamala today. She could not have been nicer,” Trump added. “But the fact is, we have to have people that are respected by the opponent.”

Earlier in the event, Trump referred to the “very nice call” he had with Harris, eliciting boos from the crowd.

“No, it was very nice,” Trump said as the crowd jeered.

In my opinion, JD Vance is more in line with the crowd, consumed by hatred of the other. Trump will hate you, but praise him and he'll suddenly be nice.

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What's weird about the Haitian thing is not just that they said it, but how the people promulgating this have kept it in the news despite how thoroughly bullshit it is. If you end up going down a hole like this, the smart thing to do politically is to stop digging. Instead, Trump's followers are doing what they can to keep this in the news by inventing even more ludicrous allegations that also get debunked. The whole thing seems tailor-made to repel swing voters who have legitimate concerns about immigration but are not racists.

This feels to me like the end of Steve Bannon's infamous zone-flooding as a viable strategy. Distraction tactics worked well for Trump in 2016 when he was a relatively unknown quantity, at least as a politician. I doubt they will be as effective when his campaign needs message discipline against Kamala Harris to succeed.

Along with all this business with Laura Loomer, it also makes it look like Trump has lost control of his followers. Maybe because he's stepped back his campaigning a bit after the assassination attempt, or because Kamala Harris entering has flustered him, the void has been filled with extremist acolytes who lack his political touch.

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There is nothing “weird” about this episode. It is highly reminiscent of what was done to Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman after the 2020 election. For Trump and his movement this is business as usual.

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Thanks so much for your hard work, Noah. This is the most detailed account of this sordid episode I have read anywhere.

Shame, shame, shame. Two candidates of a major party have swatted a helpless city in Ohio. It's equivalent to what was done to Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman. I hope the state of Ohio and the city of Springfield will sue the RNC for increased security costs. Hundreds of thousands of dollars at least.

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That’s a great idea about suing for the security costs, but they should sue Trump and Vance directly, not the RNC! Also, this comment made me reflect on the reporting that people in Springfield generally are fine with the new arrivals but that there is a sense they have “overwhelmed” local services. Well how about the way Trump and Vance’s incitement and slander has now overwhelmed the schools and police there?

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The most offensive thing about this piece, Noah, is your "my side is good and holy and just and righteous and the other side is the Devil incarnate". You've been trending this direction for a while, and it's an unbecoming look.

I know you're liberal. That's fine. I read you because you're a sane liberal and you contribute meaningfully to my understanding of the world. I read you because you don't say things like "Trump is Hitler" and "we have to start WWIII to protect Ukrainian sovereignty" and "we have 10 years before the Earth broils". So please don't go down that road. You likely believe milder forms of all of these, and I can respect that, but when you veer into believing that holiness and love are all on your side and the other side is pure hatred and evil, you cross a political line that is hard to walk back.

People who see the world differently than you do aren't evil. They simply rank values differently. For example, as an educated, cosmopolitan, liberal in the tradition of J.S. Mill, you likely value maximal individual autonomy above all else. But many Americans rank other things higher. They value the cultivation of virtue, their local uniqueness, cultural homogeneity, family, religion or other things above maximal individual choice. Those beliefs aren't evil; they're just different than yours. And your comments about such people are veering very close to calling them "uneducated deplorables" who "cling to their guns and religion" (to paraphrase 2 recent Dem politicians who also convinced themselves that anyone who disagrees must have ill motives.)

You're an economist. Your China stuff is great. Your foreign stuff in general is great. Your analysis of US economic issues is great. That's your training and I learn so much from it. Your political stuff is outside your training, and it shows. Instead of bringing a unique perspective, you sound like just another uber-educated, elite, Leftist lecturing those he thinks are beneath him. And that a very crowded lane. Focus on econ; you're better at it.

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If you don't like posts like this, all I can say is, unsubscribe now. Because some moral issues are so important that I can't just "focus on econ" with a clean conscience. And this is one of those.

I'm right about this one, Brian.

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Then we disagree, Noah. And that's OK. I don't need to agree on everything with my friends or with the writers I read. (In fact, it's best for everyone to have some of both that you don't agree with.)

But if it's OK wit you, I won't unsubscribe, since your international and econ content alone makes you worth reading. (I've learned more about China from you and NS Lyons than any other journalist, and you're even starting to bring me around on batteries :-) I am going to ignore the domestic political posts though, at least until after the election.

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Well thanks, I appreciate it! <3

And yes, there will be a lot of election posts over the next six weeks, though most of them will be more econ-focused than this one...

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Get over it. Mitt Romney isn’t a terrible piece of shit. George W. Bush was a terrible president, but a decent guy. Reagan was a good president and a good guy. Trump is a terrible piece of shit.

Sometimes the other guy really does suck a lot for reasons other than banal political disagreements. Just like ukraine made it clear that Putin really is an unusually terrible guy, even for a geopolitical opponent, this cat thing demonstrates the same with Trump.

Every political view about immigration you write above is reasonable. That doesn’t make Trumps vilification of immigrants ok, and it’s entirely reasonable for Noah to say when a bad person is a bad person.

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Did you read this article or a different one? This one doesn’t say “Trump is Hitler” or “we should deplore people who vote for Trump”. It says “willfully spreading false claims that you know are false, to vilify some outsiders for your political benefit is wrong, and JD Vance has admitted he is doing it.” Do you dispute any part of that?

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<And your comments about such people are veering very close to calling them "uneducated deplorables" who "cling to their guns and religion" (to paraphrase 2 recent Dem politicians who also convinced themselves that anyone who disagrees must have ill motives.)>

I begrudgingly believe in the spirit of your post. That being said, I’d like to nitpick on the whole “bitter clinger” comment. I’m no fan of Obama, but as I recall the whole “bitter clinger” exposition was taken out of context; it was part of a broader explanation about the social and economic decline of rural America. Here’s the quote in its full context:

<You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania," Obama said, "and, like, a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate, and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter. They cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.>

Obviously we can all agree that Obama was being somewhat paternalistic and condescending, but the entire quote in context shows that he was at least trying to show some sympathy for rural voters. The media did what they wanted with that, and then we had the whole birth certificate scandal (and then we ended up electing the guy who blew it up in the first place). I agree that liberals can and often are very condescending and ignorant of their political opponents, but this cuts both ways.

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If Trump said all of that, or the full text of Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” comment, it would be among the most measured and generous things he’s ever said about liberal or urban constituents .

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I think we basically agree, Elie about this comment. I do think it was taken out of context. Although one of the reasons it resonated on the Right was because it felt like Obama was "saying the quiet part out loud". Many on the Right feel like the urban coastal elites look down on them. Correctly so; they do. "Flyover country" -- the place where people who don't matter live.

I think Obama meant well, and to be honest, if you or I had a microphone recording our every word for 12 hours a day, we would say all kinds of stupid stuff. So I really do cut candidates and Presidents (of both parties) a lot of slack. I used it an example to illustrate how laptop-class attitudes are viewed by those who share neither the class nor the attitudes.

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No, anyone who wants to mass-deport American citizens based on ethnicity is a horrible piece of shit, and Trump's supporters are utterly deplorable either in their direct support of him or their complicity in his rise to political prominence. Further, Republicans run ads literally saying that Democrats are a satanic pedophile ring. You want us to ignore the morally despicable, completely unconscionable statements and actions by Republicans but don't think their messaging that Democrats will literally jail people for being Christian is a problem? No. Anyone who supports mass-deportation of groups of American citizens based on ethnicity is an indefensible piece of shit.

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K.V., there are pastors in jail today, right now, in Canada for simply reading the Bible. There are people on trial in England today for simply praying in public. There's an MP in Sweden who has been dragged through several trials for years because she dared to write (in a church publication, in 2006!) that homosexuality is a sin. I haven't heard the "Dems want to jail people for being Christian" line that you cited, but someone who made that claim would not be completely out in right-field. There are Western countries today where just being a public Christian in the wrong place can land you in jail. And it's not just Christians; walking while obviously Jewish will get you police attention in parts of England today as well.

Can you point me to a major political figure (of any party) that wants to mass deport people based on ethnicity? I can't think of any. There are some political figures who advocate deporting people who have entered the country illegally, but based on their behavior not their ethnicity. And to be honest, if you oppose this, I would have to ask why you are willing to allow your fellow working-class citizens to be competed against by unskilled laborers from around the world who happen to jump the border?

Illegal immigration is a difficult problem for Christians because the faith makes universalist claims about the dignity of man. But our universalist compassion must be tempered by our particular circumstances. In the same sense that you are obligated to help care for the homeless, but you don't have an obligation to render your own family homeless in the name of charity, neither do you have an obligation to help the world if it significantly harms your own fellow countrymen. A Christian's citizenship is in Heaven, but even for us, Earthly citizenship still has to mean something.

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"Can you point me to a major political figure (of any party) that wants to mass deport people based on ethnicity?"

Well, in the press conference I linked to, JD Vance declared that he was going to revoke Temporary Protected Status from all the Haitians in Springfield so that he could deport them en masse. That's a clear-cut case, in my assessment.

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Brian, do you think it’s ok to make up lies about immigrants and cause mayhem in a city to advance your political agenda? I don’t think it’s bad to value local uniqueness, family, religion, etc. I don’t think Noah said any of those things were bad. He didn’t call people deplorable. He called out the lies and provocations of Trump and Vance as bad.

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I read and subscribe to Noah for the same reasons you do. And as I began reading this article, I realized that it is another campaign piece. On politics, there’s often cogent criticism of the right; there’s never (in my reading) any note of the same or similar of the left.

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Really? Here are some pretty strident condemnations of the left with regards to the Palestine protests:

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/western-leftists-have-lost-the-plot

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/palestine-is-the-end-of-the-line

And here are some criticisms of Kamala Harris' policy ideas:

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-makes-a-big-mistake-by-embracing

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/unrealized-gains-taxes-are-a-pointless

What else do you want from me, Andrew? In addition to all these criticisms, do you want me to find some reason to pretend that Kamala Harris and the Democrats have done anything as bad as trying to overturn the result of a free and fair election, or promulgating lies about a minority group in order to stir up hate and fear?

What more can I do for you?

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I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis here, but I think this goes beyond "fake" -- it's straight-up propaganda.

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Sometimes you write well, other times you write really really well.

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Think I found a small typo, just for clarity's sake -- "Using Medicaid data and data on enrollment in ESL classes, David Jarman estimates a total immigrant population of about 10,000 in the **country**. But Kevin Drum argues that many of these are not Haitians, and comes up with an estimate of about 4,000." I assume "country" should be "county".

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This reminds me of the story of the Scorpion and the Frog.

The scorpion asks the frog to help him get to the other side of the stream. The frog says no, you’ll sting me and I’ll die. The scorpion denies it, saying he’d drown and die.

So the frog agrees, and halfway through the stream, the scorpion stings the frog. Now they both will drown, and the frog asks why? The scorpion says, its in my nature.

Nativism, anti-immigrant attitudes, and violence towards migrants have been a part of America since shortly after its founding. This is well known. Floods, hordes, masses of strangers entering our country have been a flash point for nativism and demagogues like Trump.

Joe Biden fed it by allowing millions to enter our country. Violence by migrants only feeds it and feeds Trump. Now, you can say it is Trump's fault, but he is one of hundreds or thousands in the history of America who have reacted badly towards migrants. The Irish, Chinese, and Japanese got it, as did the Italians of the past. This should have been as predictable.

If Joe Biden didn’t know this would upset half the country, including Donald Trump, that makes him the dumbest President in history or the most cynical. Had he controlled the border, he would have denied Trump one of two positions that may win him the Presidency.

You can blame Trump, but he is only doing what scorpions do.

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Are Americans the scorpions in your metaphor, and us immigrants should never trust them?

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Americans are humans. Humans have a nature. Fear of strangers is as innate as fear of spiders and snakes. It is in our DNA. My point is that a mass of strangers coming on to your property will make people uncomfortable.

To what extent people are nervous depends on individuals. No country should allow millions of unknown people in. It should be orderly and the evil ones should be kept out.

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> a mass of strangers coming on to your property will make people uncomfortable.

There’s a fundamental mistake though in treating public space as the personal property of individuals. Immigration law very much prevents property owners from renting out to whoever they want, and is thus a curtailment of private property rights, even if people sometimes conceptualize it as though it were a protection of property rights by imagining US soil as their personal property, rather than the property of the actual owner.

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Not related to anything on this post, but have you gotten into contact with Jon Stewart's people?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pcl6hqN82SU

https://x.com/weeklyshowpod

He had a somewhat contentious back and forth with Jason Furman and the conversation was getting silly. But Jon Stewart seems interested in talking about this again. But you're the guy I'd like to see talk about this!

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Nope, I've never talked to them!

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Spot on. Thanks for making the point again.

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I made a similar comment on Matt’s post:

This would be a more compelling argument if it referenced the fact that Jews have been undergoing far worse abuse for the past year - after a similar moment of “absolute moral clarity”, namely October 7. Of course we both know why these sermons never do so.

Seems to me like Democrats are fine with persecuting groups of people to score political points too - the persecutors just need to whitewash the persecution (call it “anti Zionism” instead of Jew hatred, or “all lives matter” that Jew hatred by trying to meme “antisemitism AND Islamophobia” into conventional wisdom) and to align with them on other projects.

I am strongly opposed to what Trump, Vance, and the rest of this cohort of losers is doing. You are correct that this is not the America I grew up with. I just wish that Democrats could credibly claim to be opponents in principle, rather than as a matter of tactical convenience. Because the America I grew up in also had no tolerance for antisemitism.

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As you'll recall, I wrote about antisemitism several times after October 7. Here are two examples:

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/palestine-is-the-end-of-the-line

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/western-leftists-have-lost-the-plot

Fortunately, the Democrats listened to people like me, and marginalized the antisemites.

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Democrats aren't fine with antisemitism. Far leftists who engage in "Anti-Zionism" certainly don't consider themselves democrats. I just think most Progressive groups or Leftists get bundled in with Democrats even if it's not true. I haven't seen the DNC or any party leaders come out and support "Anti-Zionism" or anything like that or even excuse it.

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Insane conflation of these issues. There are very serious and reasonable reasons to dislike the state of Israel right now, or to be anti-Zionist.

If Kamala Harris was celebrating on October 8th, you’d had a point, but she definitely wasn’t. The Biden/harris administration have taken sides in a war and tens of thousands of innocent gazans have died from bombs that democrats funded.

There are ALSO serious and reasonable reasons to support the Israeli war effort, but you should be able to see that this is a much more complicated moral issue than Haitian cats.

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Many Jewish Americans have been experiencing a lot of new hardships this past year. But I think “far worse abuse” is a very strong claim here, given the level of bomb threats and the like going on here.

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Regarding Rufo, you are spreading misinformation. The video was not that blurry and expert inference was done to ascertain it was likely a cat. Location of the video was fact-checked and confirms with the real location where it was claimed video was made.

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From the CBS News story that I linked to in my post:

"The video shows what appears to be animal carcasses on a grill. The man filming the footage alleges, without evidence, that they are cats...

Rufo said he spoke to the man who filmed the video, and the man believes the carcasses were cats. Rufo said he worked on the story with IM-1776, an online magazine, and one of their reporters visited the building where the incident was alleged to have happened. The reporter spoke to neighbors, who said that African immigrants lived in the building. Neighbors told the reporter they believed the people who owned the grill were also African immigrants, although the residents' origin or identity wasn't verified by CBS News.

The new allegation also prompted backlash and skepticism, with many users saying the carcasses look more like chickens.

CBS News reached out to multiple veterinary experts for their opinion on what type of carcass is on the grill. One expert said the video quality was too low to identify the animal. Another vet also said the video was poor quality but noted the legs looked "weirdly distended" and in his opinion, did not look like cat legs."

Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ohio-police-dispute-new-allegations-immigrants-are-eating-pets-in-dayton/

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Back up your claims. You can post links here.

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Just read the Rufo article on substack. It contains all what I referred to. Not sure if it s free or behind paywall.

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LOL, excellent refutation.

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Rufo never claimed it was in Springfield, experts cite it both could be / does not need to be a cat.

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It's incredible how quickly every Republican became a self-righteous vegan! A surprising development for sure!

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I'm glad that Noah recognized that anti-immigrant and basically racist attitude has been present in our country for centuries. Below is an amplified version of Trump's debate remarks that clarifies the racist dog whistles. (Just in case someone has a problem hearing dog whistles.)

“Illegal BLACK Haitian migrants taking over a beautiful WHITE place, it was so beautiful WHITE. Springfield Ohio, I was there, I campaigned there a while ago. Springfield, it was so beautiful WHITE. now it’s just BLACK— what a place. can you imagine you have this small little WHITE community, all of a sudden you have twenty thousand BLACK illegals in your community, nobody knows where they come from. I’m angry about young American WHITE girls being raped and sodomized and murdered by savage criminal BLACK aliens.”

All I can say is I'm glad my illegal immigrant ancestors came 300 years ago. And they were greeted with suspicion by the Governor of Pennsylvania.

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Well they weren’t strictly illegal since there was no regulation of immigration then. My father’s family came from what is now part of France but at the time was a heavily German-speaking area to Pennsylvania in the 1720s. William Penn had invited Germans, but later that century, we had someone as illustrious as Ben Franklin complaining about those “swarthy Germans.” I guess all the swarthy Germans moved to Pennsylvania, because I’ve never seen an actual German that could possibly be described that way. 🤣

Later on, my mother’s family came from Sicily and Slovakia, and of course were greeted with discrimination and distrust. Ever it was thus.

However, it also makes me hopeful. Hispanics are assimilating, too, (I know some whose children don’t even speak Spanish, which I think is a shame, but my mother can’t speak Slovak and mostly only knows how to swear in Sicilian) and despite the folks that try to lump everyone not white into the BIPOC group, I suspect Hispanics of all nationalities will be considered as American as Italians and Poles are now within another generation.

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Actually, they did make them conditionally legal in 1727. A law was passed saying that every male 16 and older had to renounce his allegiance to European rulers and swear allegiance to the king of England. The law was applied only to non-English speakers. It led to the creation of ship lists, which have 30,000 names of men who swore the oath,

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Interesting! I wonder if those lists are publicly available. They’re probably why I can trace genealogy back to that time.

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https://archive.org/details/pennsylvaniagerm0000unse_t6m3/page/n3/mode/1up

There is a multi volume publication of the actual lists that should be referenced in this book. That book is available online from ancestry.com with a subscription.

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Thank you SO MUCH! I’ve been thinking of giving Ancestry.com a try for a while.

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William Penn had invited the Mennonites to come to Pennsylvania, but the governor in 1717 was unaware of that fact. He wrote a letter saying "who are these people and why have they come here?" I have first cousins who definitely qualify as swarthy Germans.

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Ah, thanks for the clarification!

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I guess I'm confused that this seems to be having more backlash than other Trump statements. He started his presidential campaign calling Mexican immigrants rapists. It's it because this was in a debate?

Either way I'm happy for the backlash and hopeful this can end his horrific campaign of terror and division

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Well there was at least the germ of truth that a tiny minority of Mexican immigrants did commit rape. This one is different because it’s centered around a tiny city, a small ethnicity, and proven to be a fabrication.

Plus, sorry to say it, but many people have more empathy for their pets than they do people. I’ll admit to be just misanthropic enough to probably be one of those people. Then again, the ascendancy of Trump and MAGA has greatly worsened my misanthropic leanings!

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Right, the Haitian cats claim is ugly and transparently false, whereas the Mexican rapist comment is ugly but just misleading.

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