Thanks for this insightful article. As a Chinese + Shanghainess, I am shocked and very disappointed with what is happening in Shanghai right now. I am worrying about my families because of the shortage of food supplies, soaring prices and the worst of all, suspended medical services and hospitals. I am a 80s so I enjoyed the economic growth in Jiang and Hu's era.
A few thoughts:
* I think Jiang Zeming is also an underrated leader. Both Jiang and Hu were selected by Deng Xiaoping as his successors, that's why they were able to continue Deng's policy.
* Both Jiang and Hu were not popular when they were in the office. Yes they were described as weak leaders. They lacked charisma as Mao, Deng or even Xi. I still remember that people were very dissatisfied with how Jiang handled the Hanhai Island incident. But the sentiment was changed around 2015, where "the toad worship" became very popular on Chinese social networks. Some people compared their ruling period as the rule of Wen and Jin in Han dynasty.
* But I bet Xi would be elected if there is a US-style election in China and the people are asked to select among Jiang, Hu and Xi. Xi is exactly the strong leader that many Chinese people are looking for. His anti corruption policy (yes although that was for eliminating his enemies) and the "wolf-warrior diplomats" gain him a lot of support. This is not surprising because most Chinese people (especially the ones from rural areas) are very conservative. Nationalism and Maoism are very popular among them. But they are often ignored by western media, just like their counterparts (Trump supporters) in US. The widening wealth gaps and social networks are making them more polarized as well.
* I think the Tiananmen square protest was a tuning point. Before that CCP was considering both political and economical reforms, according to Ezra Vogel's book about Deng Xiaoping. The political reform has been postponed indefinitely and the leader of the reform president Zhao Ziyang was removed from the office after the protest. Unfortunately there is no "what if" in history.
* I also agree that Xi did pretty well in his first few years. The most valued companies in Hu's era were banks and oil companies, while now they are tech giants. A lot of my friends in China (including the ones who came back from US) got rich in this period. I also somewhat understand his recent actions to contain some tech companies, as US and EU are doing similar things. But it seems that these policies (including the recent covid "zero tolerance" policy) were all made by his personal will. Steve Jobs said "It doesn't make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do. We hire smart people so they can tell us what to do." Xi is the one who likes telling people what to do (in diplomat, governance, economics, education, technology, pandemic… yes almost everything).
Have you read "Haunted by Chaos" by Sulmaan Wasif Khan? This is my favorite China government book. Relies on original CCP documents to tell the perspective of Chinese leaders (but from a critical perspective).
Thanks for this insightful article. As a Chinese + Shanghainess, I am shocked and very disappointed with what is happening in Shanghai right now. I am worrying about my families because of the shortage of food supplies, soaring prices and the worst of all, suspended medical services and hospitals. I am a 80s so I enjoyed the economic growth in Jiang and Hu's era.
A few thoughts:
* I think Jiang Zeming is also an underrated leader. Both Jiang and Hu were selected by Deng Xiaoping as his successors, that's why they were able to continue Deng's policy.
* Both Jiang and Hu were not popular when they were in the office. Yes they were described as weak leaders. They lacked charisma as Mao, Deng or even Xi. I still remember that people were very dissatisfied with how Jiang handled the Hanhai Island incident. But the sentiment was changed around 2015, where "the toad worship" became very popular on Chinese social networks. Some people compared their ruling period as the rule of Wen and Jin in Han dynasty.
* But I bet Xi would be elected if there is a US-style election in China and the people are asked to select among Jiang, Hu and Xi. Xi is exactly the strong leader that many Chinese people are looking for. His anti corruption policy (yes although that was for eliminating his enemies) and the "wolf-warrior diplomats" gain him a lot of support. This is not surprising because most Chinese people (especially the ones from rural areas) are very conservative. Nationalism and Maoism are very popular among them. But they are often ignored by western media, just like their counterparts (Trump supporters) in US. The widening wealth gaps and social networks are making them more polarized as well.
* I think the Tiananmen square protest was a tuning point. Before that CCP was considering both political and economical reforms, according to Ezra Vogel's book about Deng Xiaoping. The political reform has been postponed indefinitely and the leader of the reform president Zhao Ziyang was removed from the office after the protest. Unfortunately there is no "what if" in history.
* I also agree that Xi did pretty well in his first few years. The most valued companies in Hu's era were banks and oil companies, while now they are tech giants. A lot of my friends in China (including the ones who came back from US) got rich in this period. I also somewhat understand his recent actions to contain some tech companies, as US and EU are doing similar things. But it seems that these policies (including the recent covid "zero tolerance" policy) were all made by his personal will. Steve Jobs said "It doesn't make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do. We hire smart people so they can tell us what to do." Xi is the one who likes telling people what to do (in diplomat, governance, economics, education, technology, pandemic… yes almost everything).
Have you read "Haunted by Chaos" by Sulmaan Wasif Khan? This is my favorite China government book. Relies on original CCP documents to tell the perspective of Chinese leaders (but from a critical perspective).