Apr 12, 2022·edited Apr 12, 2022Liked by Noah Smith
Yeah, being even more hawkish against Putin probably is the best electoral strategy for the Dems.
Problems I see are that:
1. I don't trust Dems to act smartly in election strategy. They seem to care more about winning faculty lounge debates than votes (still majority working class), sadly enough.
2. A portion of the GOP are Putin bootlickers, but they also have an extremely hawkish wing (Rubio, Graham, etc.) and the GOP has owned that brand for several decades now so stealing that away would be tough.
3. The autocrat-loving (America-hating/head-in-the-sands) Left may be tiny electorally but have an outsized voice and it would be easy for the GOP to tie all Dems to the Lefty fringe. Dems _should_ tie the GOP to Putin in return, but again, that requires Dems to actually be good at this electioneering thing. And even then, they may struggle as much as Macron vs. LePen.
I'm 31 years old now. We've been at war, in essence, for 20 of them. There seems to be a constant drumbeat warning of us of another enemy just around the corner - Al Qaeda, The Taliban, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, etc. - while little has been done at home. It's not to say what's going on abroad isn't terrible, just that I think most people, especially the young, are pretty tired of the war beat and are looking for something different.
People do disapprove of Russia's behavior, but if you think that will be a voting issue that can save Dems you are in for a very long night on November 8. First, most people's views of this conflict are, at least in my experience, pretty nuanced. They are appalled by Russia's invasion and behavior in Ukraine. At the same time, the indifference to nuclear risk that you see among the most ardent "I stand with Ukraine crowd" on Twitter is pretty much confined to them. I'd even guess that the hesitation about sanctions is not a fringe view. Second, the base case with Americans remains a general drift toward isolationism. Team America, World Police just doesn't sell right now. Third, this issue is too peripheral to the more immediate, everyday issues for which the Dems are almost without exception on the defensive: crime, inflation, immigration, schools, etc.
You live in a bubble. Perhaps in a faculty lounge. You think Americans actually care about Ukraine to tip an election? Democrats are casual voters only interested in free stuff made out of nothing. These are not the brightest people. This is an unbelievable opinion. Nothing is going to stop the massacre coming in November.
I'm sorry but your comment about GOP votes on NATO being "pro Putin" is just another leftist trope trying to smear certain member of the party as pro-authoritarian and a continued attempt to continue the Trump/Russian collusion narrative. Not being in support of NATO, does NOT equate to being "PRO-Putin". Such black and white thinking is exactly the problem in this country right now and you should be ashamed for perpetuating it.
Very good on you for writing this Noah! I wasn't too impressed with your parachute-in take on the Ukraine economy, but this piece is really right on.
The advantage for Ds is that they can run against Trump, whose record of admiration and submissiveness to Putin is clear and painful to watch. Trump absolutely adored Putin and you can see that in his eyes in every joint public appearance. Trump still loves Russia - especially Moscow's ubiquitous hookers and the way rich men can literally buy and get away with anything. Trump was making an exaggerated boast when he said, "when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything." In Russia he saw that men like him really could. There are also no small number of pro-Putin far-right members of Congress who can be targeted.
The difficulty for Ds is that they have long been the anti-war party, going back to the McGovern movement which over time became the party's mainstream and took power under Obama. Just before Obama came to power Bush had already folded to Putin's invasion of Georgia, exhausted as Bush was by his misunderestimations in Iraq and the subprime crisis. But Obama's appeasements of Putin were even worse than Chamberlain's appeasements of Hitler. First calling for a "reset" with language that vaguely suggested Bush was partly to blame for the Russian invasion of Georgia. Then interpreting the Budapest Memorandum so minimally he turned it into a modern version of the "white man's trick" treaties the US used to sign with Native Americans and then interpret down to nothing. And then the double-fiasco in Syria - declaring the chemical weapons red line then ignoring it, and arming rebels then abandoning them to massacre when Russia got involved. I'm sure most Ds even now don't want to hear it, but Obama's presidency will be remembered for three things: that he was the first African American to be president, that he passed practically universal health insurance, and that he betrayed Ukraine and Syria and catastrophically emboldened Putin.
Only with today's announcement of additional weapons supplies to Ukraine, including much-needed artillery, do I think Biden is starting to understand what you're arguing here. He has been cautious, apparently assuming that Americans would care more about avoiding any risk of confrontation with Russia than they would about anything else. I'd like to believe Biden's conscience has been showing through as he first declared that Putin must go, and now as he acknowledges that Russia is committing genocide. (And I'd like to swiftly kick those criticizing him for that between the legs.) I hope it is also a political calculation - yes that's a good thing here - that Ds will do much better this fall with their middle fingers firmly out at Putin than letting Ukraine lose for lack of weaponry and shamefully emboldening Putin further.
I remember thinking this the day Putin invaded the Ukraine. "run on the war" exactly. And flood the media with videos of Trump cosying up to Putin. It's obvious that these two "leaders" think alike. Trump idolizes Putin for being the mob boss who takes a cut from all the corruption going on in Russia. He calls Putin's invasion "genius". Have you ever noticed, in all the time up to this invasion the former President has never criticized Putin for anything, he has even brushed off the fact that he has been murdering his opponents for years? The democrats just need to highlight all that Biden is doing to support the Ukraine, and show a relentless line of videos recording Trump and Putin's bromance. The voters will do the rest.
“ It is no secret that we are in a battle between democracy and authoritarianism in America and around the world. ” HCR.
The Dems need to hammer on the message that Dems=democracy and Republicans = authoritarianism. Russian occupied Ukraine is what the US would be under Trump.
My main concern is that running and winning on the war may irreversibly polarize the GOP into the pro-Putin position. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t work or be worth it, but there’s definitely a downside risk involved.
Yeah, I don't see D's avoiding a slaughter in the midterms. No matter the strategy. The environment is exceptionally bad in a time when partisanship should be holding things more or less even between the parties.
Democratic Politicians shoot themselves in the foot. I'll be blunt: they need to forget about trying to ban guns if they want to win. Trump soured many people with his idea of 'take their gun then due process', this is something the Dem's should have capitalized on but didn't. There are many people who cannot vote D because of this issue no matter how much they can't stand Trumps ilk.
Most of the gun control legislation makes no sense. In every other case experts are brought it so they can at least act like they know what they are talking about. Couple that with the buffoonery that gets spouted and the ATF pulling random and conflicting ideas out of their rectum as well not enforcing the laws on the books and it results in the D's loosing when they have every advantage.
And yes, I am aware their are more issues, but this is one where are know several people who cannot justify voting D.
I have been shadowing this blog for some time due to the general excellent quality of its articles. This is the worst article in your entire blog. Therefore I subscribed this blog so that I can write this comment.
The comparison against 2002 midterms makes completely no sense. Remember that Bush 43 had his approval rating at 88% after 9/11, while Biden's rating did not change after Putin's invasion of Ukraine and remains at the lower 40s.
Remember, the average American cannot find where Ukraine is on a map...
Finally, the leftist culture is fundamentally incompatible with national defense. Tankieism is just too ingrained in the Democratic ideology. Before Jan. 6, the Democratic Party basically stood for "America is never great", with the legitimacy of the US constitution itself being questioned as a racist legacy of slavery. In this sense, Jan. 6 practically saved America by forcing the Democrats to rally around the US constitution and patriotism.
Ah yes it was “just that one time” 80 years ago. The US’s foreign adventurism is prolific and if you believe that we are nothing but light and goodness when it comes to the international stage you are naive.
Yeah, being even more hawkish against Putin probably is the best electoral strategy for the Dems.
Problems I see are that:
1. I don't trust Dems to act smartly in election strategy. They seem to care more about winning faculty lounge debates than votes (still majority working class), sadly enough.
2. A portion of the GOP are Putin bootlickers, but they also have an extremely hawkish wing (Rubio, Graham, etc.) and the GOP has owned that brand for several decades now so stealing that away would be tough.
3. The autocrat-loving (America-hating/head-in-the-sands) Left may be tiny electorally but have an outsized voice and it would be easy for the GOP to tie all Dems to the Lefty fringe. Dems _should_ tie the GOP to Putin in return, but again, that requires Dems to actually be good at this electioneering thing. And even then, they may struggle as much as Macron vs. LePen.
I'm 31 years old now. We've been at war, in essence, for 20 of them. There seems to be a constant drumbeat warning of us of another enemy just around the corner - Al Qaeda, The Taliban, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, etc. - while little has been done at home. It's not to say what's going on abroad isn't terrible, just that I think most people, especially the young, are pretty tired of the war beat and are looking for something different.
People do disapprove of Russia's behavior, but if you think that will be a voting issue that can save Dems you are in for a very long night on November 8. First, most people's views of this conflict are, at least in my experience, pretty nuanced. They are appalled by Russia's invasion and behavior in Ukraine. At the same time, the indifference to nuclear risk that you see among the most ardent "I stand with Ukraine crowd" on Twitter is pretty much confined to them. I'd even guess that the hesitation about sanctions is not a fringe view. Second, the base case with Americans remains a general drift toward isolationism. Team America, World Police just doesn't sell right now. Third, this issue is too peripheral to the more immediate, everyday issues for which the Dems are almost without exception on the defensive: crime, inflation, immigration, schools, etc.
You live in a bubble. Perhaps in a faculty lounge. You think Americans actually care about Ukraine to tip an election? Democrats are casual voters only interested in free stuff made out of nothing. These are not the brightest people. This is an unbelievable opinion. Nothing is going to stop the massacre coming in November.
I'm sorry but your comment about GOP votes on NATO being "pro Putin" is just another leftist trope trying to smear certain member of the party as pro-authoritarian and a continued attempt to continue the Trump/Russian collusion narrative. Not being in support of NATO, does NOT equate to being "PRO-Putin". Such black and white thinking is exactly the problem in this country right now and you should be ashamed for perpetuating it.
I suspect that the Supreme Court's decision in the abortion cases may be about to throw a massive curve ball into this election.
Very good on you for writing this Noah! I wasn't too impressed with your parachute-in take on the Ukraine economy, but this piece is really right on.
The advantage for Ds is that they can run against Trump, whose record of admiration and submissiveness to Putin is clear and painful to watch. Trump absolutely adored Putin and you can see that in his eyes in every joint public appearance. Trump still loves Russia - especially Moscow's ubiquitous hookers and the way rich men can literally buy and get away with anything. Trump was making an exaggerated boast when he said, "when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything." In Russia he saw that men like him really could. There are also no small number of pro-Putin far-right members of Congress who can be targeted.
The difficulty for Ds is that they have long been the anti-war party, going back to the McGovern movement which over time became the party's mainstream and took power under Obama. Just before Obama came to power Bush had already folded to Putin's invasion of Georgia, exhausted as Bush was by his misunderestimations in Iraq and the subprime crisis. But Obama's appeasements of Putin were even worse than Chamberlain's appeasements of Hitler. First calling for a "reset" with language that vaguely suggested Bush was partly to blame for the Russian invasion of Georgia. Then interpreting the Budapest Memorandum so minimally he turned it into a modern version of the "white man's trick" treaties the US used to sign with Native Americans and then interpret down to nothing. And then the double-fiasco in Syria - declaring the chemical weapons red line then ignoring it, and arming rebels then abandoning them to massacre when Russia got involved. I'm sure most Ds even now don't want to hear it, but Obama's presidency will be remembered for three things: that he was the first African American to be president, that he passed practically universal health insurance, and that he betrayed Ukraine and Syria and catastrophically emboldened Putin.
Only with today's announcement of additional weapons supplies to Ukraine, including much-needed artillery, do I think Biden is starting to understand what you're arguing here. He has been cautious, apparently assuming that Americans would care more about avoiding any risk of confrontation with Russia than they would about anything else. I'd like to believe Biden's conscience has been showing through as he first declared that Putin must go, and now as he acknowledges that Russia is committing genocide. (And I'd like to swiftly kick those criticizing him for that between the legs.) I hope it is also a political calculation - yes that's a good thing here - that Ds will do much better this fall with their middle fingers firmly out at Putin than letting Ukraine lose for lack of weaponry and shamefully emboldening Putin further.
I remember thinking this the day Putin invaded the Ukraine. "run on the war" exactly. And flood the media with videos of Trump cosying up to Putin. It's obvious that these two "leaders" think alike. Trump idolizes Putin for being the mob boss who takes a cut from all the corruption going on in Russia. He calls Putin's invasion "genius". Have you ever noticed, in all the time up to this invasion the former President has never criticized Putin for anything, he has even brushed off the fact that he has been murdering his opponents for years? The democrats just need to highlight all that Biden is doing to support the Ukraine, and show a relentless line of videos recording Trump and Putin's bromance. The voters will do the rest.
“ It is no secret that we are in a battle between democracy and authoritarianism in America and around the world. ” HCR.
The Dems need to hammer on the message that Dems=democracy and Republicans = authoritarianism. Russian occupied Ukraine is what the US would be under Trump.
My main concern is that running and winning on the war may irreversibly polarize the GOP into the pro-Putin position. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t work or be worth it, but there’s definitely a downside risk involved.
Sure, and why not promise to use American policy to continue the war indefinitely to punish Putin until every Ukrainian town and city is destroyed?
Yeah, I don't see D's avoiding a slaughter in the midterms. No matter the strategy. The environment is exceptionally bad in a time when partisanship should be holding things more or less even between the parties.
Democratic Politicians shoot themselves in the foot. I'll be blunt: they need to forget about trying to ban guns if they want to win. Trump soured many people with his idea of 'take their gun then due process', this is something the Dem's should have capitalized on but didn't. There are many people who cannot vote D because of this issue no matter how much they can't stand Trumps ilk.
Most of the gun control legislation makes no sense. In every other case experts are brought it so they can at least act like they know what they are talking about. Couple that with the buffoonery that gets spouted and the ATF pulling random and conflicting ideas out of their rectum as well not enforcing the laws on the books and it results in the D's loosing when they have every advantage.
And yes, I am aware their are more issues, but this is one where are know several people who cannot justify voting D.
I have been shadowing this blog for some time due to the general excellent quality of its articles. This is the worst article in your entire blog. Therefore I subscribed this blog so that I can write this comment.
The comparison against 2002 midterms makes completely no sense. Remember that Bush 43 had his approval rating at 88% after 9/11, while Biden's rating did not change after Putin's invasion of Ukraine and remains at the lower 40s.
Remember, the average American cannot find where Ukraine is on a map...
Finally, the leftist culture is fundamentally incompatible with national defense. Tankieism is just too ingrained in the Democratic ideology. Before Jan. 6, the Democratic Party basically stood for "America is never great", with the legitimacy of the US constitution itself being questioned as a racist legacy of slavery. In this sense, Jan. 6 practically saved America by forcing the Democrats to rally around the US constitution and patriotism.
Do you offer a student discount for your newsletter?
Ah yes it was “just that one time” 80 years ago. The US’s foreign adventurism is prolific and if you believe that we are nothing but light and goodness when it comes to the international stage you are naive.