Techno-optimism, the mighty U.S. economy, Chinese real estate, slavery's economic effects, and the danger of hate on social media. Plus, rescue rabbits.
Per your point about radicalization happening on Twitter... one of the few/only critiques I have of your writing on substack is that your perception of different ideological groups seems to be overly-shaped by your experience on Twitter. Especially your critiques of the left seem geared towards left-twitter rather than an accurate assessment of how widespread various beliefs or ideological affiliations are actually distributed across various left factions.
“America’s economy is undefeated”. I would be up for a blog post on whether large US budget deficits could be corrected and whether this could be done without transferring the imbalances to other sectors of the economy.
The more prosperous we become and the more we expect to live long, healthy, affluent lives shared with our loved ones, the more anxious and defensive we become about anything that threatens us. The more you’ve got to lose, the more anxious you become about losing it.
I think this fact explains much of the existential dread and angry defensiveness of modern life.
I'm afraid Marc is shadowboxing the wrong opponent when asserts, first that we have control of nature, and then that some fringe wants to abandon that.
That's wrong in the first part. Not only don't we have control, we barely have understanding of our impacts No one can tell us for instance the impact of endocrine disruptors in human, let alone "wild" animal populations.
The fringe degrowthers aren't the problem. It's the hubrists who haven't really done their homework.
Probably no such thing as wild animals at this point.
"It’s precisely because innovators don’t capture most of the monetary benefits of the innovations they create that we need some other force to propel technology forward."
The tech geniuses blindness to how much of state/public does to get nascent technologies started by funding basic research, is frustrating, the DoE, DoD, etc have done so much- even privatized things like Space X wouldn't exist without tons of gov't support, Tesla would have been seriously slowed and maybe never made it without gov't subsidies of EV purchases, Pharma with all their vaccine and https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=semaglutide wonder drugs would not have had something to trial without earlier government support.
Tech inventors and entrepreneurs are awesome, private market forces to find and incentivize value delivers for consumers, and government support of new tech is great, let private tech/financing do what they're proven good at and let government do what it is good at, the combined force of both working well on a national economy is a wonder.
I would add, that clearly some people in private markets, including tech, sometimes happily take money for nothing, or worse, get profit from harming people, this will always need democratic checks to minimize these harms or mis-incentives in private markets - monopolies, cartels, fraud, non-performing markets, etc.
Regarding the turbulence video, I believe I saw the guy who posted it say that it's not actually AI, just using sensors and real-time responses from the wind flaps to counteract the wind forces the sensors measure. This may not just be splitting hairs, either, since AI/ML is very difficult to make 100% deterministic. You really don't want your wing flap doing something unexpected in response to an unexpected input.
But overall, yes, let's get everyone on board with techno-optimism. What can the average person do to bring a future of technological progress and abundance closer to reality?
Andreessen: "We believe central planning is a doom loop; markets are an upward spiral." Noah: "...this quote isn’t quite right."
There's a simple reason why the quote is more likely quite wrong. Markets, investment, trade, everything takes place in a socially maintained regulatory environment where (generally) certainty is increased and risk is reduced. That's what the state does. As you say, it may or may not be called “central planning” but it is government, law, policy, economy -- without which markets would not "spiral".
Also, the Southern underinvestment in manufacturing was due to the fact that the American South effectively outsourced these capabilities both to the North and to England, where the mills of Lowell and of Dickensian fiction were spinning Southern cotton with labor that was not enslaved, but was not living particularly well.
Once the South chose to secede, it knew its only way to win a long war was to bring Britain into alliance with it - thus bringing the Empire's manufacturing capability to bear against that of the Union. Such an alliance came very close to happening, but Britain chose to stay out, and the fate of the Confederacy was sealed.
Techno optimism, maybe if we can get past this era of people stuck to their phones and gaming I might be more of a cheerleader. Why is it with all the tech innovation the last 23 years we've become less productive? That said there are fantastic opportunities in medicine coming on board, solid state batteries, Small Nuclear Reactors, synthetic substitutes for oil products, and so on.
Further your point about where technological progress comes from: agreed that a lot of it comes from (1) market goods and (2) government-funded research. A lot also comes from (3) public infrastructure and public health projects. Examples include interstate highways, the electric grid, chlorinated water, and Project Warp Speed.
China pivoting from real estate to manufacturing is another tally in the “probably yes” column regarding war over Taiwan. What’s a great way to utilize surplus manufacturing? Expendable weapons.
“Which doesn’t mean, of course, that the modern American economy is free from the stain of slavery. It just means that that stain is probably making us poorer rather than richer. Extractive labor policies like low-paid prison labor, commonly used in the American South, under-invest in human capital and are probably thus inefficient, for many of the same reasons that Hornbeck and Logan cite.”
Yes! I think inequitable systems don’t need to be as egregious as prison labor in the South to hurt economic growth. All it takes are systems that reinforce intergenerational links between wealth, education, and health care. We’ve got that everywhere in the U.S.
Per your point about radicalization happening on Twitter... one of the few/only critiques I have of your writing on substack is that your perception of different ideological groups seems to be overly-shaped by your experience on Twitter. Especially your critiques of the left seem geared towards left-twitter rather than an accurate assessment of how widespread various beliefs or ideological affiliations are actually distributed across various left factions.
“America’s economy is undefeated”. I would be up for a blog post on whether large US budget deficits could be corrected and whether this could be done without transferring the imbalances to other sectors of the economy.
The more prosperous we become and the more we expect to live long, healthy, affluent lives shared with our loved ones, the more anxious and defensive we become about anything that threatens us. The more you’ve got to lose, the more anxious you become about losing it.
I think this fact explains much of the existential dread and angry defensiveness of modern life.
William. Cump Sherman's first name is William.
I'm afraid Marc is shadowboxing the wrong opponent when asserts, first that we have control of nature, and then that some fringe wants to abandon that.
That's wrong in the first part. Not only don't we have control, we barely have understanding of our impacts No one can tell us for instance the impact of endocrine disruptors in human, let alone "wild" animal populations.
The fringe degrowthers aren't the problem. It's the hubrists who haven't really done their homework.
Probably no such thing as wild animals at this point.
"It’s precisely because innovators don’t capture most of the monetary benefits of the innovations they create that we need some other force to propel technology forward."
The tech geniuses blindness to how much of state/public does to get nascent technologies started by funding basic research, is frustrating, the DoE, DoD, etc have done so much- even privatized things like Space X wouldn't exist without tons of gov't support, Tesla would have been seriously slowed and maybe never made it without gov't subsidies of EV purchases, Pharma with all their vaccine and https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=semaglutide wonder drugs would not have had something to trial without earlier government support.
Tech inventors and entrepreneurs are awesome, private market forces to find and incentivize value delivers for consumers, and government support of new tech is great, let private tech/financing do what they're proven good at and let government do what it is good at, the combined force of both working well on a national economy is a wonder.
I would add, that clearly some people in private markets, including tech, sometimes happily take money for nothing, or worse, get profit from harming people, this will always need democratic checks to minimize these harms or mis-incentives in private markets - monopolies, cartels, fraud, non-performing markets, etc.
Regarding the turbulence video, I believe I saw the guy who posted it say that it's not actually AI, just using sensors and real-time responses from the wind flaps to counteract the wind forces the sensors measure. This may not just be splitting hairs, either, since AI/ML is very difficult to make 100% deterministic. You really don't want your wing flap doing something unexpected in response to an unexpected input.
But overall, yes, let's get everyone on board with techno-optimism. What can the average person do to bring a future of technological progress and abundance closer to reality?
Andreessen: "We believe central planning is a doom loop; markets are an upward spiral." Noah: "...this quote isn’t quite right."
There's a simple reason why the quote is more likely quite wrong. Markets, investment, trade, everything takes place in a socially maintained regulatory environment where (generally) certainty is increased and risk is reduced. That's what the state does. As you say, it may or may not be called “central planning” but it is government, law, policy, economy -- without which markets would not "spiral".
William Tecumseh Sherman.
Also, the Southern underinvestment in manufacturing was due to the fact that the American South effectively outsourced these capabilities both to the North and to England, where the mills of Lowell and of Dickensian fiction were spinning Southern cotton with labor that was not enslaved, but was not living particularly well.
Once the South chose to secede, it knew its only way to win a long war was to bring Britain into alliance with it - thus bringing the Empire's manufacturing capability to bear against that of the Union. Such an alliance came very close to happening, but Britain chose to stay out, and the fate of the Confederacy was sealed.
Techno optimism, maybe if we can get past this era of people stuck to their phones and gaming I might be more of a cheerleader. Why is it with all the tech innovation the last 23 years we've become less productive? That said there are fantastic opportunities in medicine coming on board, solid state batteries, Small Nuclear Reactors, synthetic substitutes for oil products, and so on.
Further your point about where technological progress comes from: agreed that a lot of it comes from (1) market goods and (2) government-funded research. A lot also comes from (3) public infrastructure and public health projects. Examples include interstate highways, the electric grid, chlorinated water, and Project Warp Speed.
The final photo is one serious display of flooffiness.
Thanks for using your platform to promote animal welfare.
Your argument about rabbits can also be applied to chickens.
https://www.onestepforanimals.org/about.html
Thanks for the bunnies! (I’ll actually read later.) 😁
China pivoting from real estate to manufacturing is another tally in the “probably yes” column regarding war over Taiwan. What’s a great way to utilize surplus manufacturing? Expendable weapons.
“Which doesn’t mean, of course, that the modern American economy is free from the stain of slavery. It just means that that stain is probably making us poorer rather than richer. Extractive labor policies like low-paid prison labor, commonly used in the American South, under-invest in human capital and are probably thus inefficient, for many of the same reasons that Hornbeck and Logan cite.”
Yes! I think inequitable systems don’t need to be as egregious as prison labor in the South to hurt economic growth. All it takes are systems that reinforce intergenerational links between wealth, education, and health care. We’ve got that everywhere in the U.S.