More serious comment: Part of the "Millennials are screwed" narrative is that millennials were promised more of an education premium for having gone to college than they actually got and this education premium was clustered in a very few occupations.
Most millennials I know are terrified of the right-wing 's social beliefs. When the GOP goes hard-in on anti-trans and anti-gay and anti-drag, millenials see them as the party of oppression.
I bet we'll see millennials economic beliefs moderate, but not their voting patterns.
This probably understates the length and psychological impact of the recession. Educated people are resilient, but spending your 20s being told to pound sand is not an easy thing to unwind, and I think the cultural residue from that is hard for people who did not live through it to recognize.
"In 10 or 20 years when the Boomers die" My goodness, what will happen to Gen Xers (me) when that happens!? Society will expect us to be the responsible older adults because there is no one else! Also there will be no one to resent for thinking they invented pop culture!
My millennial children live in house worth twice mine, have kids, and show no signs of drifting right politically, the one who was a radical Marxist in HS and is now a finance professor--he's now a social democrat.
ha, really interesting quote from that northeastern article you linked to about evidence (or not) of people becoming more conservative as they age: "About 40 years ago, it used to be thought that people got more liberal as they aged. In those days, the oldest people were the people who came of age during [President Franklin Delano] Roosevelt—or the Silent Generation. On the whole, the Silent Generation was more liberal than some subsequent generations. So when you just look at the relationship between ideology and age, what you find in this case is that the older people were more liberal, and the younger people were more conservative. The thinking then becomes: getting old makes you realize that liberalism is the right way of looking at the world." fascinating if true
As a boomer myself (second wave, meaning that to me Fess Parker is Daniel Boone, not Davy Crockett), I want to make the slight correction that the theme of The Big Chill wasn't liberal to conservative, but idealism to cynicism. And they got back some of what they lost not through ideology, but by their connection to each other.
I think Millennials could become increasingly right-wing on economics, particularly their own tax bill, as their incomes grow with age while maintaining liberal views on social and cultural issues. Recent polling by Pew shows that the majority of Americans under 65 believe they pay more than their fair share in taxes. [1] For 18-29, 53% express that view as do 60% of those between 30 and 49.
Americans in general have had a fairly strong aversion to paying more in taxes since Reagan. And we’re now at the point where even Democratic politicians have to promise no tax increases on anyone earning less than $400k. Seems this trend will continue with Millennials.
I am largely very skeptical of some of these analyses. I'm probably running headlong into an already written rebuttal in an article I didn't click through to, but I think idiosyncracys in each generation overwhelm any attempt at comparing generational wealth.
Perhaps it is different in the US, but at least here in the UK it is pretty much impossible for the median earner to buy a home without a partner who is also an earner. Given that the entire millennial cohort is effectively required to be earners - wouldn't a better analysis be share of GDP per earner?
This is great news. Some fascinating tidbits here, such as the fact that growing old does not make people more conservative per se, whereas having children does.
I’m older - 76, white, with a BA from a state university that I acquired with no debt because of the availability of VA benefits following military service. The draft occasioned the military service, not patriotic beliefs. I got my first piece of real estate with a nothing down, low interest VA mortgage at age 22. I became an entrepreneur and never worked for an employer. I got wealthy and enjoyed what I did for work. I did many things. I owned a lot or real estate and sold it for more than I paid for it. Economics 101 - buy something, then sell it for more. One observation jumped out at me in this essay. I believe people become more conservative in their political views and their behavior when they have children for whom they feel increasing responsibility. They minimize risk. I’ve watched this behavior manifest itself repeatedly. I am a political liberal. My parents and family became conservatives because, I believe, they were concerned about providing for their children and grandchildren. I have no children, and thus no grandchildren. This was by choice. I believe that if I wanted children in my life, I should adopt those less fortunate kids who need care. I realized that people with children can never - ever accumulate enough wealth to provide them with a calmness that they can provide enough for their growing family. They fear for the future of their children and grandchildren so they continually worry about what is ahead for those generations. They try to build an estate to leave as much behind for their family as possible. They can never relax. If you want a calm older life, consider not having children and instead enjoy your life. Most of your peers will accuse you of selfishness, but when they are honest with themselves, they will admit that parenting is difficult, expensive, often thankless and can be very painful to your emotional well-being.
This is really good. But one thing that has really changed is the cost of higher ed and the degree to which it is needed to have a good paying job. 50 years ago I attended Northwestern University. Tuition went from $1800/year to $3,000. But I had a summer warehouse job at $3.25/hour and with overtime I could cover around 2/3 of my tuition and living expenses. I am not sure that is true anymore.
A second part of this which I have observed is that millennials at 22 want the same wealth that there parents have at 55 not the wealth the parents had at 22.
I’m pretty much your average millennial in that I was born in 1988. I think what contributes most to my generation’s restlessness is the combination of student debt and the recent explosion in home prices. When I graduated law school in 2014 it was a historically bad employment market for lawyers so I didn’t start making real money until about 2020. Meanwhile, my wife is saddled with six figures of debt from attending dental school. Objectively speaking we are very fortunate and well off but we are now in the process of looking for our second home (we bought a starter home in 2018) having two young kids and we can barely afford a decent sized home without having to buy a complete gut job. It’s very frustrating having done “the right thing” by getting professional degrees and still feeling like we’re behind. I probably sound a bit whiny/elitist but I suspect there are many people who have the same frustrations. I also acknowledge that younger millennials who are just now trying to buy starter homes are much worse off than we are. In sum, I think millennial distress is one of those things that’s more vibes based than fact based but vibes aren’t completely worthless.
I think both this and Twenge’s article are implicitly about how college-attending millennials have caught up to previous generations’ income and wealth. For example, Twenge’s article cites St Louis Fed data showing that college degree-holding Millennials were 4% behind previous generations in wealth but non-college degree-holding millennials were 18% behind. My unsubstantiated instinct is that because 35-40% of Millennials hold college degrees, they’re a large enough cohort to drag up medians on various measures (note: yes, median). My other unsubstantiated instinct is that they probably disproportionately make up the cohort of millennial homeowners.
This is a long way of saying: it wouldn’t surprise me if the gap in income/wealth between those with and without college degrees is higher than previous generations. I’d like to see an article theorizing about Millennial politics given that context (it would be interesting because of the increasing tendency for those without college degrees to vote R)
On the Redfin housing ownership graph: The dark red line seems to indicate that 25% of 18-year-olds today own their own home? This seems incredibly unlikely to me
"How’s the U.S. doing on the civilization test? When graded on a curve against its peer nations, it is failing. The U.S. mortality rate is much higher, at almost every age, than that of most of Europe, Japan, and Australia. That is, compared with the citizens of these nations, American infants are less likely to turn 5, American teenagers are less likely to turn 30, and American 30-somethings are less likely to survive to retirement."
More serious comment: Part of the "Millennials are screwed" narrative is that millennials were promised more of an education premium for having gone to college than they actually got and this education premium was clustered in a very few occupations.
Most millennials I know are terrified of the right-wing 's social beliefs. When the GOP goes hard-in on anti-trans and anti-gay and anti-drag, millenials see them as the party of oppression.
I bet we'll see millennials economic beliefs moderate, but not their voting patterns.
This probably understates the length and psychological impact of the recession. Educated people are resilient, but spending your 20s being told to pound sand is not an easy thing to unwind, and I think the cultural residue from that is hard for people who did not live through it to recognize.
"In 10 or 20 years when the Boomers die" My goodness, what will happen to Gen Xers (me) when that happens!? Society will expect us to be the responsible older adults because there is no one else! Also there will be no one to resent for thinking they invented pop culture!
My millennial children live in house worth twice mine, have kids, and show no signs of drifting right politically, the one who was a radical Marxist in HS and is now a finance professor--he's now a social democrat.
ha, really interesting quote from that northeastern article you linked to about evidence (or not) of people becoming more conservative as they age: "About 40 years ago, it used to be thought that people got more liberal as they aged. In those days, the oldest people were the people who came of age during [President Franklin Delano] Roosevelt—or the Silent Generation. On the whole, the Silent Generation was more liberal than some subsequent generations. So when you just look at the relationship between ideology and age, what you find in this case is that the older people were more liberal, and the younger people were more conservative. The thinking then becomes: getting old makes you realize that liberalism is the right way of looking at the world." fascinating if true
As a boomer myself (second wave, meaning that to me Fess Parker is Daniel Boone, not Davy Crockett), I want to make the slight correction that the theme of The Big Chill wasn't liberal to conservative, but idealism to cynicism. And they got back some of what they lost not through ideology, but by their connection to each other.
I think Millennials could become increasingly right-wing on economics, particularly their own tax bill, as their incomes grow with age while maintaining liberal views on social and cultural issues. Recent polling by Pew shows that the majority of Americans under 65 believe they pay more than their fair share in taxes. [1] For 18-29, 53% express that view as do 60% of those between 30 and 49.
Americans in general have had a fairly strong aversion to paying more in taxes since Reagan. And we’re now at the point where even Democratic politicians have to promise no tax increases on anyone earning less than $400k. Seems this trend will continue with Millennials.
[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/07/top-tax-frustrations-for-americans-the-feeling-that-some-corporations-wealthy-people-dont-pay-fair-share/
I am largely very skeptical of some of these analyses. I'm probably running headlong into an already written rebuttal in an article I didn't click through to, but I think idiosyncracys in each generation overwhelm any attempt at comparing generational wealth.
Perhaps it is different in the US, but at least here in the UK it is pretty much impossible for the median earner to buy a home without a partner who is also an earner. Given that the entire millennial cohort is effectively required to be earners - wouldn't a better analysis be share of GDP per earner?
This is great news. Some fascinating tidbits here, such as the fact that growing old does not make people more conservative per se, whereas having children does.
I’m older - 76, white, with a BA from a state university that I acquired with no debt because of the availability of VA benefits following military service. The draft occasioned the military service, not patriotic beliefs. I got my first piece of real estate with a nothing down, low interest VA mortgage at age 22. I became an entrepreneur and never worked for an employer. I got wealthy and enjoyed what I did for work. I did many things. I owned a lot or real estate and sold it for more than I paid for it. Economics 101 - buy something, then sell it for more. One observation jumped out at me in this essay. I believe people become more conservative in their political views and their behavior when they have children for whom they feel increasing responsibility. They minimize risk. I’ve watched this behavior manifest itself repeatedly. I am a political liberal. My parents and family became conservatives because, I believe, they were concerned about providing for their children and grandchildren. I have no children, and thus no grandchildren. This was by choice. I believe that if I wanted children in my life, I should adopt those less fortunate kids who need care. I realized that people with children can never - ever accumulate enough wealth to provide them with a calmness that they can provide enough for their growing family. They fear for the future of their children and grandchildren so they continually worry about what is ahead for those generations. They try to build an estate to leave as much behind for their family as possible. They can never relax. If you want a calm older life, consider not having children and instead enjoy your life. Most of your peers will accuse you of selfishness, but when they are honest with themselves, they will admit that parenting is difficult, expensive, often thankless and can be very painful to your emotional well-being.
This is really good. But one thing that has really changed is the cost of higher ed and the degree to which it is needed to have a good paying job. 50 years ago I attended Northwestern University. Tuition went from $1800/year to $3,000. But I had a summer warehouse job at $3.25/hour and with overtime I could cover around 2/3 of my tuition and living expenses. I am not sure that is true anymore.
A second part of this which I have observed is that millennials at 22 want the same wealth that there parents have at 55 not the wealth the parents had at 22.
I’m pretty much your average millennial in that I was born in 1988. I think what contributes most to my generation’s restlessness is the combination of student debt and the recent explosion in home prices. When I graduated law school in 2014 it was a historically bad employment market for lawyers so I didn’t start making real money until about 2020. Meanwhile, my wife is saddled with six figures of debt from attending dental school. Objectively speaking we are very fortunate and well off but we are now in the process of looking for our second home (we bought a starter home in 2018) having two young kids and we can barely afford a decent sized home without having to buy a complete gut job. It’s very frustrating having done “the right thing” by getting professional degrees and still feeling like we’re behind. I probably sound a bit whiny/elitist but I suspect there are many people who have the same frustrations. I also acknowledge that younger millennials who are just now trying to buy starter homes are much worse off than we are. In sum, I think millennial distress is one of those things that’s more vibes based than fact based but vibes aren’t completely worthless.
I think both this and Twenge’s article are implicitly about how college-attending millennials have caught up to previous generations’ income and wealth. For example, Twenge’s article cites St Louis Fed data showing that college degree-holding Millennials were 4% behind previous generations in wealth but non-college degree-holding millennials were 18% behind. My unsubstantiated instinct is that because 35-40% of Millennials hold college degrees, they’re a large enough cohort to drag up medians on various measures (note: yes, median). My other unsubstantiated instinct is that they probably disproportionately make up the cohort of millennial homeowners.
This is a long way of saying: it wouldn’t surprise me if the gap in income/wealth between those with and without college degrees is higher than previous generations. I’d like to see an article theorizing about Millennial politics given that context (it would be interesting because of the increasing tendency for those without college degrees to vote R)
On the Redfin housing ownership graph: The dark red line seems to indicate that 25% of 18-year-olds today own their own home? This seems incredibly unlikely to me
America Fails the Civilization Test:
The average American my age is roughly six times more likely to die in the coming year than his counterpart in Switzerland.
By Derek Thompson The Atlantic
This has some insights into the generational life spans and how Americans fare by age to the modern democracies. Age 20- 40 is pretty sad.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/america-mortality-rate-guns-health/673799/
"How’s the U.S. doing on the civilization test? When graded on a curve against its peer nations, it is failing. The U.S. mortality rate is much higher, at almost every age, than that of most of Europe, Japan, and Australia. That is, compared with the citizens of these nations, American infants are less likely to turn 5, American teenagers are less likely to turn 30, and American 30-somethings are less likely to survive to retirement."