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Charlie Hammerslough's avatar

My experience may be of interest. After working with brilliant Indian teams (programmers and statisticians) in a previous career, I decided to make in India the steel assemblies for a new product that I have invented. I mean, India has made steel for 2,000 years, right? It's a relatively simple product, without electronics, but brand new.

We are working with a factory partner in Rajkot. Clearly infrastructure is an issue for them, since the roads can become impassible due to weather and electricity shortages shuts the factory down (involuntarily) one day a week.

While I appreciate the contribution of academic economists (I went to school with Dani Rodrik, after all), I see some cultural issues that may hold some importance as well. These, in my experience, are sometimes a blind spot for economists.

I conjecture that some of these issues are rooted in India's history of exploitative colonialization as well as other differences from Asia, including a very hierarchical social structure.

Stop Being So Polite. My factory partners are deferential in ways, as an American, I don't need. They seem unwilling to bring me bad news that my team and I need in order to work with them effectively to solve fabrication problems. It sometimes feels like a lack of trust, but it may just be rooted in an expectation of hierarchy and arbitrary decision-making. Guys, please just focus on meeting my business needs, not my emotional needs. We're looking for win-win, not to exploit you.

Embrace Innovation. It was genuinely a surprise to my partners that I wasn't just sending them a product to copy more cheaply. This is a new product and all we've got are plans and a rough prototype. At least in the Indian steel industry, the logic of innovation seems less prevalent. When they innovate, we both win, but I'm not sure they believe that.

Orient toward Quality. My understanding is that in Japanese, the verb for "to study" is roughly "to copy" (I could be wrong). It's telling that the Indian government and business community embraced tariffs that protected shoddy domestic manufacture. Apparently, the quality was "good enough" for the masses. I don't think our partner really understood that we were serious about quality until I showed them our colorimeter, micrometer, and paint depth measuring devices we use to inspect their work product, even factory samples. We constantly are asking them to prioritize quality. In my experience, factories in Asia will proudly show off their state of the art QC.

Risk Aversion. This is something I admit to really not understanding, but it was a long search to find the right factory partner who wanted to go on this journey with us. They won't make a lot of money unless the product is a success and we scale production up together. I suspect there is a big cultural difference in risk aversion to working with a startup, even a US one.

Government can help or hurt, but I don't believe there's some magic government policy rooted in economic models that will enable India's industrial base to grow smoothly and without risk or occasional retrenchment. Rather, I hope they try more pragmatic flexible experiments, tailored to each region's strength.

I'm optimistic about our collaboration with the Indian factory, and I believe we'll product a great product together. However, I've tried to be clear-eyed about the constraints and challenges we both face, both overt and implicit.

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mathew's avatar

Excellent comment. Culture is at least as important as law.

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Fallingknife's avatar

This is very true. I noticed something similar in South Africa. If you spend any time in SA you will learn the concept of "Africa Time" which is basically the total nonexistence of the concept of punctuality. It's next to impossible to get anything done when nobody even tries to show up on time and there is no government policy that can change this.

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tengri's avatar

"Africa Time" is every 3rd world country (and most 2nd world ones).

Cultures only start caring about punctuality when they are industrialized and infrastructure and public safety are good enough that someone can reasonably trust they'll get from Point A to Point B safely and in good time.

If most people are agricultural workers they won't understand sticking to a clock because nature doesn't care about what minute and hour it is, only what season it is.

South Africa frequently has power cuts. In that environment it's pointless to try to stick to a schedule when your electricity (and internet) could be cut off at any moment for hours at a time.

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Fallingknife's avatar

You have no idea what you're talking about and that is a mythical idea of Africa. In Cape Town nobody is an agricultural worker. Power cuts are a very recent thing in SA and have nothing to do with why nobody is ever on time. The idea that the availability of internet is relevant here is laughable.

You are making the fundamental mistake of assuming that I am talking about being 15 minutes late because unreliable infrastructure when what I am actually talking about is showing up at 10:30 for something scheduled at 9 and having never even had the thought that this might be an issue.

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tengri's avatar

Calm down, I know South Africa isn't Sudan or Afghanistan.

My infrastructure comment is still valid. I've heard a South African college professor at Wits University say that he tries to get as much work done as possible when electricity works because you never know how long the next blackout will last.

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Treeamigo's avatar

Good piece. India has a tremendous opportunity given it hasn’t yet been hit by the wave of demographic decline washing over most of the rest of Asia (and Europe and the Americas).

The educational system is good at the secondary and tertiary levels and more tech focused than most of Europe, Africa and Latam, so human capital (whether in number or quality) should not be a constraint.

Unfortunately, India has long been run by an anti-competitive, quasi-socialistic mindset at the top and plagued by a corrupt, rent-seeking bureaucracy at the bottom (sounds like a blue state, or maybe Italy!), has poor infrastructure and has a low trust culture that seems somewhat unethical or immoral to outsiders (also Italy). Essentially, the supply side is a mess, infrastructure is a mess, and rule of law (in practice) is a problem.

That being said, there is an entrepreneurial and commercial spirit (a bit like Italy, in some of that is directed toward theft, corruption, gaming the system, etc) though a pretty big divide between the industrialized/modern sectors and pockets of subsistence living.

Democracy is well-established even if honesty, clarity and rule of law is not.

I like their chances. If they can deregulate, educate, build infrastructure and improve rule of law they would be wildly successful. Same might be said of Nigeria, Brazil, Egypt, Iran. Problem is those payoffs are long-term and politicians aren’t benevolent seers (more likely to be rent-seekers and skimmers like Lula, most African leaders) or more focused on suppressing internal/sectarian dissent (or are both authoritarians and skimmers).

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rahul razdan's avatar

you captured a lot in this tight paragraph "Unfortunately, India has long been run by an anti-competitive, quasi-socialistic mindset at the top and plagued by a corrupt, rent-seeking bureaucracy at the bottom (sounds like a blue state, or maybe Italy!), has poor infrastructure and has a low trust culture that seems somewhat unethical or immoral to outsiders (also Italy). Essentially, the supply side is a mess, infrastructure is a mess, and rule of law (in practice) is a problem."

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Treeamigo's avatar

Thanks. The authors covered the top level problems (anti-competitive, anti-business mindset) in much more detail and with good recommendations, of course.

I am a long-term bull on India. And if I am wrong and more smart and hard-working Indians want to come to the US and UK to start a life with slightly less corruption, patronage and hierarchies- that is good, too.

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Abhishek K Das's avatar

I think the low-trust, low-capacity dynamic is indeed a classic bootstrapping problem. Trust and state capacity reinforce each other, but initiating that virtuous cycle is difficult, especially in a democratic society like India where nothing can be “enforced” top-down in the way authoritarian regimes manage. Cultural change takes time, effort, and coordinated messaging.

But we’ve seen it work before. My parents’ generation was constantly campaigned on the idea of “having two children,” and over time, that narrative stuck. More recently, campaigns like Swachh Bharat Abhiyan have shown that even long-standing behavioral norms can shift with persistent nudging.

India’s growth story often gets overshadowed by China’s, which has been more rapid and state-led—but what India lacks in pace, it makes up in resilience and decentralization. Reforms take time, but external pressure (like tariffs from the US) and internal aspirations are gradually pushing the country forward.

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mathew's avatar

Yes for decades some of India's best and brightest have been leaving for America. Good for us, less good for India.

But that will change if they fix their laws.

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Tankster's avatar

Under Trump, who says they can come to the US? We need ag workers more than M.D.’s.

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LV's avatar
Aug 4Edited

Your ideological snark is interfering with your argument. India would love to be in the position of an American blue state or even Italy. In the US blue states are net subsidizers of red ones.

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Treeamigo's avatar

You seem to think that the Blue state policies I observe in India- quasi-socialistic, anti-competitive and anti-business, rent-seeking bureaucracy are bad. Good on you! There may be hope for you yet.

By the way, “states” don’t pay taxes In the US- rich people and professionals in the US pay taxes while the poor and the elderly receive payments- no matter what state they live in.

I do object to rich people in CA, NY etc paying lower taxes than a person with the same income in TX….as a result of the recent expansion of the SALT deduction - now that is an unequal subsidy based upon state rather than income!

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mathew's avatar

"In the US blue states are net subsidizers of red ones"

With population yep. As people flee over regulated and over taxed blue states for red ones where you can actually build.

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CS's avatar

I think the painful bottlenecks in the legal system deserve more than a passing mention: I've been told that it can take decades to resolve disputes, especially property-related ones. The other glossed over item is the pervasive corruption at all levels, likely promoted by over-regulation and quasi-arbitrary authority given to government officials at all levels. (I was once told that it's easier and cheaper to pay small bribes for expediting items under the control of officials, than it is to follow the legitimate processes.)

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Suhas Bhat's avatar

Human capital is also a big factor. A lot of the people you'd want working in manufacturing need to have the necessary skills but it's hard to educate them now.

In 1988 around 60% of Indian adults were illiterate compared with 22% in China.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2024/11/28/is-indias-education-system-the-root-of-its-problems

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Sarah OBrien's avatar

Interesting, Suhas, because much if not all of the thriving service sector relies on English speaking, relatively educated workers. For example Wipeo, Infosys, call centers etc. Do you think the service sector has reached a maximum in terms of available/sufficiently skilled workers and can't expand further?

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Suhas Bhat's avatar

No, the number of graduates from computer science and related courses is in the millions every year. There’s a real but overblown fear that AI adoption will reduce the hiring outsourced software engineers whereas I think they’ll only become better at doing jobs Americans were hired to do. Still, the sectors cannot hire all of these graduates so they will need to migrate to other countries and work in tech industries outside the US, in my view.

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Sarah OBrien's avatar

Yes that definitely seems possible - I guess that's why Infosys is doing the "outsourced in the US" model as well as in-country services. But I also wonder how much education many of the workers in the electronics sector( in China for example) have. I worked with the major OEMs on sustainability issues in the supply chain - in China, Indonesia, Viet Nam - including issues around exposure to toxic substances. And as I recall, some portion of issues arose because of lack of literacy to competently read and understand chemical safety warnings. Not that that is good by any means! (!!) But an indicator that many manufacturing jobs of the 'screwing in screws' or welding circuit boards do not require a high level of education - and in fact have helped many Chinese peasant folks move up despite their lack of education.

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BronxZooCobra's avatar

AI seems like a threat as the outsourced jobs are the ones that can most easily done by an AI. I've had a few interactions with a customer service that was orders of magnitude better than the typical offshore call center.

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Arjun Mokha's avatar

One thing that wasn't mentioned was an under performing agricultural sector. The Indian Agricultural sector state influenced (via cash subsidy and regulation) is probably mostly a drag and the inability to reform it means a decent chunk of the population works in a inefficient system whose deficiencies can hit the other sectors of consumer spending easily. It also undervalues the primary asset of the Indian people (their land)

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rahul razdan's avatar

Interesting article.... In looking at India, it appears that the issues are a bit deeper, and likely not solvable easily because they are cultural in nature. Beyond what is mentioned in the article,

1) Political Governance: There is a vast difference between the south and north. The southern states drive most of the GDP/growth. Meanwhile, the northern states have most of the poverty, literacy issues, and crime. In the current system, political power will increase for the north... there needs to be a fundamental accommodation ...very likely similar to the US Senate.

2) Identity: The role of government is to promote "the common good." However, if the cultural view is a fundamentally stratified view of society (caste system), whose "good" is promoted? "Culture eats strategy" it has been said. This is certainly the case in India. The actual operation of law, police is through the lens of this stratified structure where some humans are more valuable than others. Thus, in operation, the country acts in a very tribal fashion. The common good is defined as my family, my tribe...not much more.

3) Government: Today, the government is seen as the "other" which is the prime "free" mover. This mental model crowds out "bottom-up" activity, and the lack of governance creates a disincentive for positive action.

Overall, there are deeper cultural issues which stand in the way of progress which likely need a generation or two to work through.

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Tankster's avatar

I believe that India has condemned itself by the rotting bureaucracy, and the attempt by the government to, at least back to the ‘70’s to be nonaligned. A country like Ireland that is tiny, can be neutral and nonaligned. India’s attempts to be neutral or balanced are over. Go be buddies with Putie Tang, or Pooh Bear Xi. But you can’t have a good relationship with the US. Sometimes ya gotta choose, like NOW. Quit playing the oil import export arbitrage. Us or them, pick.

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Max F Kummerow's avatar

Decreasing fertility rates aren't mentioned, although they are almost always a key to economic takeoff (have a look at Singapore and other Asian Tigers, China, etc.). And once a demographic dividend is found, it can be perpetuated by further reducing birthrates to keep age dependency low as the former large generation ages. Keep in mind that it takes 20 years in a modern economy for a birth to become a worker and during that 20 years, the child is age dependent. Then as population falls, pressure on land, housing, and everything else eases and per capita incomes and quality of life can increase in a shrinking economy with shrinking environmental impact. A bigger issue is that economic growth cannot continue on a finite planet. Scientists have been saying this for years, but apparentlyl half the population of India will have to die from excessive heat or other consequences of growth such as groundwater depletion, soil losses, and toxic contamination before this becomes obvious. Scarcity caused by growth is not cured by more growth.

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Len Layton's avatar

What about the Factory Girls? China’s industrialization rode on their backs.

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Len Layton's avatar

Female labour participation in India is half of China’s and most other industrialized nations. It’s looking increasingly like India will never develop and will remain in the low income trap.

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Falous's avatar

Very intriguing article. One could write almost exactly the same diagnostics for the African world on most factors (as like the ILO pleasing but corruptly applied labor market and job protetion laws, that indeed clear drive infomality). I have often called this Potemkin Village laws - façades to please Western Govs and Western NGOs and Western agencies - USAID in particular - that have clearly perverse effects (the 'Perfect' -aka 'best standard" becoming the enemy of 'the incrementally better')

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