It is pretty clear Putin miscalculated on two fronts: 1 the willingness of the Ukrainians to die for their country and/or the willingness of Russian troops to be as brutal in their onslaught as he expected, and 2 the degree of damage the sanctions regime can do to the Russian economy and its capacity to sustain a long war. if the latter is decisive - and I hope it is - it may deter him mow and send a message to Xi to be careful about invading Taiwan,
As for sanctions and sending a message to china... The Germans are still buying Russian gas. Yes, Russia has been partly cut off from swift, but that just means the Germans have to pay by fax. China hasn't sanctioned Russia, so that means the Russians can get literally anything they want via China. As for confiscating Russian assets abroad, the Russians can cancel debts and seize assets inside Russia and they'll come out even or better. All of which should be obvious, but the media have been shamefully lazy. This isn't the world of ten years ago: if China doesn't join sanctions, they're of damn all real value.
And everyone who matters knows that. The sanctions and arms transfers we're seeing are about covering politicians asses, not achieving a decisive effect in Ukraine. Ironically, they're a diplomatic Potemkin village.
No, that isn't clear at all. So far there's barely been any actual fighting - the Ukrainian forces have let the Russians reach Kyiv without really challenging them. In return the Russians have used very little firepower - because they haven't had to and it's bad pr. Yes, the Ukrainian government claims to have killed thousands of Russians - but the actual numbers seem to be in the low hundreds. When you compare this to previous fighting in the Ukraine it's a love tap - a 1000 Ukrainian soldiers died at Ilovaisk and 6000 civilians at Debal’tseve.
Feb 28, 2022·edited Feb 28, 2022Liked by Noah Smith
Hey Noah FYI your Youtube channel (or maybe just this video?) seems to be marked as "for kids" somehow. Not sure if that's intentional but it's preventing me from saving to my Watch Later playlist among other things
One point about seizing control of cities that you guys kind of slid past is that against an organized, determined defender, leveling the city doesn't help a lot in the short term. You might turn a lot of buildings into rubble, but that rubble is almost as good (sometimes maybe better) for cover and concealment as intact buildings are. So you could very well bombard a bunch of buildings, scare away any civilians you don't kill, and then run into a bunch of defenders that moved there after you stopped shelling.
There isn't a straightforward and easy way to take control of a city that's hostile enough to actively resist, and the Russians ought to know this since Stalingrad is the best example we have of this in modern(ish) warfare.
No, the Russians shouldn't "know" this. Firstly because that isn't what happened at Stalingrad. Because the city couldn't be isolated so it received constant logistical support, which is why it was dangerous to bypass and impossible to starve out. Which isn't the case for any Ukrainian city. And secondly because this isn't ww2 and weapons have changed - thermobarics are great for killing troops in rubble and the Russians have a huge supply of them. Thirdly, you might want to look at the cities the Russians flattened in Chechnya and in their last serious attack on Ukraine. Rather than relying on repeat viewings of Enemy At The Gate, you might want to look at what happened in the Ukraine in 2014 and '15.
It does seem like a lot of Russian losses are from trying to avoid harm to civilians, with the incompetence on top of that. I'm not surprised they're moving this slowly (of course what do I know) but it is surprising they're not taking out internet/power in cities, doing any cyber or meme war, or doing more to demotivate the population.
(The only analysis I saw on this was from people going "heh… that means you're not the target… the West is over" and then I realized they were NRX and ignored them.)
The Russians aren't conducting a conventional military campaign. This is more like showing a potential victim what you could do it you got serious. The next step will be to cut off electricity and food to Kyiv. I suspect that part of the reason for the slow tempo is to not panic the West. Add friction, less than perfect Russian operational art on top of that, and reliance on a fifth column campaign that seems to have failed. Although to be fair, they look great compared to e.g. the USA in Grenada...
The explanation I've found that makes the most sense of what is going on in Putin's mind is John Mearsheimer's great-power politics view from this talk (despite the click-baity name "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer", it's a fairly sensible video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Every other explanation I've come across presents Putin as a madman who's completely off his knocker and is trying to do something really stupid. In Meersheimer's framework, Putin's motives are clear: he's scared of NATO expanding into the Ukraine, and this war is really a statement that Russia is going to run the Ukraine into the ground if NATO or the EU try to assimilate it.
Mearsheimer isn't alone. Lee and a lot of other foreign policy intellectuals agree with him. The problem is the media are dumbing down. With the bizarre exception of Tucker Cartman. I mean, Carlson.
The news earlier today how the central bank sanctions were prompted by a stirring speech from Zelensky honestly leaves me a bit rattled. This particular measure is going to crash the Russian economy and Putin responded to it with nuclear saber-rattling; it's frightening that that sort of escalatory decision can be taken for plainly emotional reasons.
Regarding the comments by Jay Francis let me say this: (1) today managing propaganda in a war trumps use of actual force. The reason is simple: the Internet. cell phones, and video recorders. To date the Russians have done a poor job, not coming up for a convincing rationale short of imperialist ambitions. The Ukrainians have won the war on the Internet. I am not sure what you mean by the war not being much engaged so far. You confuse killing people with making political leverage on the global stage. (2) As for China I have two points. First as a prelude to the invasion of Ukraine Russia and China signed a non-aggression treaty designed to minimize the spread of the sanctions regime to China and Asia. Japan has joined the sanctions club and Biden has used the war to bolster the security of Taiwan. Sure the Russians can buy goods from China but that is not where the oligarchs park their assets. The treaty also stops China from attacking Russia in the far East notably in Siberia but the fact Putin had to secure his Eastern flank so he could move most of his troops to the west underscores the fact he is overplaying his hand.
Noah, a question for your military sources. It was great to realize that the Russian gauge rail lines from Belarus to Kyiv were dynamited on day 1 of the assault, but what about other entry points, which threaten Kharkiv and the path across the Ukraine in the south from Rostov, where the Russian advances seem to be continuous and growing, but somehow less well-covered in the news.
It is pretty clear Putin miscalculated on two fronts: 1 the willingness of the Ukrainians to die for their country and/or the willingness of Russian troops to be as brutal in their onslaught as he expected, and 2 the degree of damage the sanctions regime can do to the Russian economy and its capacity to sustain a long war. if the latter is decisive - and I hope it is - it may deter him mow and send a message to Xi to be careful about invading Taiwan,
As for sanctions and sending a message to china... The Germans are still buying Russian gas. Yes, Russia has been partly cut off from swift, but that just means the Germans have to pay by fax. China hasn't sanctioned Russia, so that means the Russians can get literally anything they want via China. As for confiscating Russian assets abroad, the Russians can cancel debts and seize assets inside Russia and they'll come out even or better. All of which should be obvious, but the media have been shamefully lazy. This isn't the world of ten years ago: if China doesn't join sanctions, they're of damn all real value.
And everyone who matters knows that. The sanctions and arms transfers we're seeing are about covering politicians asses, not achieving a decisive effect in Ukraine. Ironically, they're a diplomatic Potemkin village.
No, that isn't clear at all. So far there's barely been any actual fighting - the Ukrainian forces have let the Russians reach Kyiv without really challenging them. In return the Russians have used very little firepower - because they haven't had to and it's bad pr. Yes, the Ukrainian government claims to have killed thousands of Russians - but the actual numbers seem to be in the low hundreds. When you compare this to previous fighting in the Ukraine it's a love tap - a 1000 Ukrainian soldiers died at Ilovaisk and 6000 civilians at Debal’tseve.
World events don't normally scare me too much but, completely honestly, right now I'm at about a 6 or 7/10 fear level. I don't like this!
It is definitely not enjoyable.
Hey Noah FYI your Youtube channel (or maybe just this video?) seems to be marked as "for kids" somehow. Not sure if that's intentional but it's preventing me from saving to my Watch Later playlist among other things
Came to write the same!
Thanks! Should be fixed now.
Noah i love you bud but PLEASE get a better microphone
One point about seizing control of cities that you guys kind of slid past is that against an organized, determined defender, leveling the city doesn't help a lot in the short term. You might turn a lot of buildings into rubble, but that rubble is almost as good (sometimes maybe better) for cover and concealment as intact buildings are. So you could very well bombard a bunch of buildings, scare away any civilians you don't kill, and then run into a bunch of defenders that moved there after you stopped shelling.
There isn't a straightforward and easy way to take control of a city that's hostile enough to actively resist, and the Russians ought to know this since Stalingrad is the best example we have of this in modern(ish) warfare.
No, the Russians shouldn't "know" this. Firstly because that isn't what happened at Stalingrad. Because the city couldn't be isolated so it received constant logistical support, which is why it was dangerous to bypass and impossible to starve out. Which isn't the case for any Ukrainian city. And secondly because this isn't ww2 and weapons have changed - thermobarics are great for killing troops in rubble and the Russians have a huge supply of them. Thirdly, you might want to look at the cities the Russians flattened in Chechnya and in their last serious attack on Ukraine. Rather than relying on repeat viewings of Enemy At The Gate, you might want to look at what happened in the Ukraine in 2014 and '15.
Or, what happened in Syria, where ethnic cleansing of Sunnis is still taking place
It does seem like a lot of Russian losses are from trying to avoid harm to civilians, with the incompetence on top of that. I'm not surprised they're moving this slowly (of course what do I know) but it is surprising they're not taking out internet/power in cities, doing any cyber or meme war, or doing more to demotivate the population.
(The only analysis I saw on this was from people going "heh… that means you're not the target… the West is over" and then I realized they were NRX and ignored them.)
The Russians aren't conducting a conventional military campaign. This is more like showing a potential victim what you could do it you got serious. The next step will be to cut off electricity and food to Kyiv. I suspect that part of the reason for the slow tempo is to not panic the West. Add friction, less than perfect Russian operational art on top of that, and reliance on a fifth column campaign that seems to have failed. Although to be fair, they look great compared to e.g. the USA in Grenada...
The explanation I've found that makes the most sense of what is going on in Putin's mind is John Mearsheimer's great-power politics view from this talk (despite the click-baity name "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault? Featuring John Mearsheimer", it's a fairly sensible video): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Every other explanation I've come across presents Putin as a madman who's completely off his knocker and is trying to do something really stupid. In Meersheimer's framework, Putin's motives are clear: he's scared of NATO expanding into the Ukraine, and this war is really a statement that Russia is going to run the Ukraine into the ground if NATO or the EU try to assimilate it.
Mearsheimer isn't alone. Lee and a lot of other foreign policy intellectuals agree with him. The problem is the media are dumbing down. With the bizarre exception of Tucker Cartman. I mean, Carlson.
The news earlier today how the central bank sanctions were prompted by a stirring speech from Zelensky honestly leaves me a bit rattled. This particular measure is going to crash the Russian economy and Putin responded to it with nuclear saber-rattling; it's frightening that that sort of escalatory decision can be taken for plainly emotional reasons.
Regarding the comments by Jay Francis let me say this: (1) today managing propaganda in a war trumps use of actual force. The reason is simple: the Internet. cell phones, and video recorders. To date the Russians have done a poor job, not coming up for a convincing rationale short of imperialist ambitions. The Ukrainians have won the war on the Internet. I am not sure what you mean by the war not being much engaged so far. You confuse killing people with making political leverage on the global stage. (2) As for China I have two points. First as a prelude to the invasion of Ukraine Russia and China signed a non-aggression treaty designed to minimize the spread of the sanctions regime to China and Asia. Japan has joined the sanctions club and Biden has used the war to bolster the security of Taiwan. Sure the Russians can buy goods from China but that is not where the oligarchs park their assets. The treaty also stops China from attacking Russia in the far East notably in Siberia but the fact Putin had to secure his Eastern flank so he could move most of his troops to the west underscores the fact he is overplaying his hand.
Noah, a question for your military sources. It was great to realize that the Russian gauge rail lines from Belarus to Kyiv were dynamited on day 1 of the assault, but what about other entry points, which threaten Kharkiv and the path across the Ukraine in the south from Rostov, where the Russian advances seem to be continuous and growing, but somehow less well-covered in the news.
Time for the Oligarchs/Generals to re-enact a modern interpretation of Julius Caesar