Noah, I did my master’s in computer science from Texas A&M, and I’ve always felt that the U.S. is one of the most beautiful and meritocratic countries in the world. The research funding, the openness to talent, the belief that hard work can take you anywhere — these are the things that made me admire America deeply. My wife is a doctor, and we had been planning to build our life here. For a long time, we saw our future in this country.
But over the past year itself, we started to feel things shifting. Legal immigration didn’t get harder on paper, but it became more exhausting in practice. Every time we re-enter the U.S., the amount of suspicion and interrogation we go through at the airport makes us feel like we’ve done something wrong just by being here. It's not just a one-off — it’s every single time now. You can tell that the system doesn’t see you as someone contributing anymore, but as someone who needs to be watched carefully. It wears you down.
We had already decided to return to India by the end of this year — for many personal and professional reasons (not mentioning the obvious reason because even that might put me in some radar haha) — but reading posts like this one really put into words what we’ve been feeling for a while. It’s painful to watch America slowly move away from the very values that made it so powerful: scientific leadership, trust in institutions, strong alliances, and its welcoming nature. Instead of building, it feels like there’s a constant tearing down.
At the same time, I feel a small kind of patriotic pride too — that India will get two motivated, productive people back. It’s a bittersweet feeling. I still love the U.S. deeply, and I don’t think it’s finished — I genuinely believe it can remain number one. But if even legal, skilled immigrants start quietly walking away, that’s a sign that something is deeply wrong. I hope more people are paying attention before that silent erosion becomes irreversible.
Footnote - And to those who might read this with suspicion: I’m not attacking America. I’m just sharing what it feels like to have loved this country, contributed to it, and still feel like you’re being pushed out.
Thanks, Kathleen — that means a lot. Despite its flaws and even its wars, I’ve always seen America as a force for good for this planet and humanity in general — I just hope it can pull back before it’s too late. I do strongly believe that in the end, democracy prevails — aberrations happen, but the optimist in me believes the country will find its balance again.
For several decades now, the Republican Party has remained electorally competitive through culture wars. This has involved a coalition of big religion, big and small business, the wealthy, and radical libertarians.
All of these groups were invested in reducing the size of government and lowering taxes, leading to unpopular and unsustainable economic policies that benefitted the wealthy, bloated the national debt, and hurt the working class and poor. As such, appeals to cultural issues gave these policies political viability among the segments of the population most hurt by them.
Furthermore, with Evangelicals seeking (among other things) to end the teaching of the theory of evolution in schools, and big business deeply invested in the exploitation of fossil fuels and thus hostile toward the science of climate change, both have had a powerful incentive to discredit what we might call the earth sciences.
Combining that with Vietnam War college deferments rendering our universities bastions of anti-war liberalism, and we suddenly had a Republican Party hostile toward science and higher education. With big business then backing right-wing firebrands on AM radio stations across the country, these cultural divides were exacerbated.
Eventually, the Republican Party, once the more educated of the two, became the political home to America's anti-intellectualism and paranoid conspiracy theory mongering, with a shrinking top layer of educated elites holding it all together.
Meanwhile, educated and increasingly upwardly mobile liberal Democrats who still supported policies of downward redistribution of wealth were alienated from the white working class by cultural "wedge" issues exploited by Republicans in order to cling to power, with the working class being slowly conditioned to hate liberals and Democrats.
Because of this, half of this country now seems incapable of sound judgement with regard to their elected officials, thrice elevating an incompetent carnival barker to the top of their Presidential ticket. Resenting the "elites" who look down on them, they fail to recognize that their Party is still run by "elites" who demonstrate their disdain by very much taking advantage of the increasingly cloistered bubble of disinformation and ignorance they've constructed around them.
In other words, half of Americans now inhabit the real world and half of us are plugged into the MAGA Matrix. And that's a long term problem with no obvious solutions.
Well at least we know it's always the Republicans fault. With all their dirty evil plans.
It's not like the Democrats has any agency as they pushed further and further left wondering why the dumb rubes can't get in line and get the new values that their betters say they should have.
Nowhere did I say that the left was blameless or perfect, but the comparison is night and day. At least respond to my specific points instead of giving a sarcastic, boilerplate "oh I suppose Democrats are blameless ..." response.
I criticize the left all the time. I was very much absorbed into the movement to counter the excesses of wokeness in 2021, because they were often way over the line and borderline hysterical. And yet what it seemed to end up accomplishing is a collective amnesia regarding Trump's palpable awfulness.
It has become more apparent than ever that Trump is a narcissistic sociopath, a know-nothing institutional arsonist, and an astonishingly corrupt criminal authoritarian who threatens American democracy more with each passing day. We have never seen such a malignant public figure in our lifetimes.
Now which party produced him? Don't tell me that it's the fault of Democrats and liberals. It was the Republican electorate who chose this guy. The party elites created the environment which allowed him to thrive.
For years I listened to nothing but constant demonization of liberals from the right-wing mainstream, which grew more and more radical all the time. Tell me, which party was it whose Speaker retired *while still holding the gavel* because the party was being taken over by crazies and lunatics? Democrats have an extremist fringe, but have they let it take over like the Republicans have?
"All of these groups were invested in reducing the size of government and lowering taxes, leading to unpopular and unsustainable economic policies that benefitted the wealthy, bloated the national debt, and hurt the working class and poor."
There's huge disagreement with that statement. For example, US GDP per Capita is $89k Germany is at $56k , Canada is at $54k. So the US is about 60% richer than freaken Germany.
Those on the right would argue (and I would argue) some of the primary reasons we in the US are SO much richer is because of lower taxes and a better regulatory environment. And that a policy that is focused on growing the economy raises all boats, including the working class and poor.
Likewise the businesses have a preference for fossil fuels do so because of cost and reliability. It's not some big conspiracy, businesses like consumers want energy to be cheap and reliable.
For example, you can't get a majority of consumers to pay even $1 more for green energy
for reference, I might be willing to pay $10, that would be it. Which puts me way to the left of the average American on energy
"white working class by cultural "wedge" issues exploited by Republicans in order to cling to power, with the working class being slowly conditioned to hate liberals and Democrats."
It wasn't Republicans that conditioned the working class to hate liberals. It was liberals contempt for working class people and traditional values that did that.
Let's not forget Obama's "cling to guns and religion comment" or Clinton's "Deplorable" comment.
Note I'm a never Trump-er so I agree that Trump is bad. And I wish that Dems hadn't swung so far left that America voted for Trump TWICE.
I maintain a Bill Clinton type candidate would have crushed Trump, so would Obama of 2008.
Yes .... like one could not look in the mirror and say the reason why opposition has traction is not the rubes are suffering from False Consciousness / lack of sufficient Correct Party Thinking but rather I'm way off:
(Noah after election: The educated professional class is out of touch with America
Professional Class-Splaining is not a path to success but is w/o doubt a nice comforting self-congratulation one is not really off, it's everyone else because they're not clever enough to think like you.
I've done plenty of looking in the mirror. We all have. In fact, it's astonishing how much navel-gazing the so-called liberal media have done in response to Trump getting elected, and they repeated it after the 2024 election, ad nauseum, until Trump's abuses and corruption took center stage, again.
Do you not see the irony in that articles like Noah's—the one you link to here—are written by the same people who are supposedly so out of touch? They're *all over the place*. For being out of touch, anti-Trump blue state professionals are awfully conscientious.
You want to say it's only a select group of reasonable people on the left? Then tell me, did you see anything similar on the right when Biden won? Did right wing influencers and journalists go on Safari to blue counties to try to get a sense of the perspective of liberal-minded people? Was there any self reflection, or "looking in the mirror", as you say, on their part?
Of course not. Not only because of the fact they clearly despise us far more than we do them, but because there was nothing but unhinged, deranged denial of the fact that Trump lost. Followed,of course, by mass delusions of crooked activity by the Biden administration, served up by Republican politicians like James Comer with no scruples and perfectly happy to kowtow to Trump's irresponsible hallucinations for political gain.
The upshot is, you can delve into all the charts and statistics you want to counter the charts and statistics that you believe dictate your anti-Republican biases in the first place, and convince yourself that this is all entirely understandable economic anxiety—but that's an out of touch stereotype of its own. Talk to some people who actually know Trump-supporting MAGA working class types and ask them how accurate they think this is.
Do you deny that Trump's voter base is massively misinformed about an astonishing array of things? Two thirds of Republicans think the 2020 election was stolen. Around one third of them think that there was some truth to the QAnon conspiracy theories. Anti-vaccine sentiment is running rampant among Republicans now, leading to resurgences of diseases we thought we'd eliminated. Evangelical Christians are largely unperturbed by shutting down PEPFAR, apparently believing it was some den of corruption rather than a program that has saved the lives of millions of people. And it's taken this whole Jeffrey Epstein saga to get them to kinda sorta notice the obvious, open corruption of the DOJ under Trump.
I could go on at length.
Tell me, do you think, all things considered, it was a good idea to elect Trump? That the left's occasional overzealous advocacy of transgender athletes or gender affirming therapy for teens was a good reasons to vote for Trump? Do you think Americans exercised good, sound judgement in putting this man back in power, given everything we already knew about him?
Because I think the answer to that is obvious. How much longer should I sit here with a patronizing air of infantilization toward grown adults, stroking their hair and saying, "it's not your fault, you didn't know any better." The right constantly accuses the left of babying minority groups and catering to their persecution complexes, and yet they do the same thing with working class white people. How dare we look down on them!
I'm perfectly happy to allow that these people are misinformed due to the dishonesty of right-wing elites—and that people on the left have their own bubbles of misinformation. In fact my post was focused on what the Republican Party establishment had wrought through their cynical exploitation of low-information voters.
But there is simply no getting around the fact that these people are low-information voters, and that whatever biases and misconceptions the blue-state professional class has, the level of delusion required to deny that Donald Trump is an existential threat to America as we know it is in a class if its own. Blame them or blame the Republican Party, it is what it is.
The rubes are getting fleeced, and all of the supposed failures of the Democratic Party to relate on a personal or cultural level—a perpetually uphill struggle given the incessant branding of Democrats as hyper-extremists by right-wing propaganda outlets—don't change the sad fact that America's working class has become such a cheap date by surrendering their critical faculties to whatever swaggering dope best owns the libs.
Evidently you haven't done enough actual looking in mirror except in navel gzing.
What Trump side people do is of literally no concern to me. It's not playground Billy is not Playing Fair.
Understanding why one's product is failing requires understanding the market. And understanding how to sell to the market.
Misinformation ... a Lefty Cope for "I failed to make the sale."
You want to rant on from a Great Moral Concern PoV while self-congratulating the Lefty Prof Class for being better people etc. ... have fun
I prefer that MAGA start losing and the US get out of Crazy town
That means starting to Win
Starting to Win means dropping the blinders and learing how to make the sale in all the electoral states one needs not to lose, and that means a different product and certainly not a sales demarche that starts from "Let us Convert the benighted heathen to the One True Information and the One True Politis from their Misinformed Non Engagement."
We're moving back for personal, professional, and honestly, emotional reasons. It’s not some dramatic exit — just a clear decision after watching how things have been shifting. And no, I don’t see us coming back.
India has problems, no doubt. But it’s also open. Our flaws are visible because we don’t hide them. That’s the price of being a democracy. China doesn’t get the same scrutiny — not because things are better there, but because the system blocks the world from seeing anything real. India doesn’t have that filter — so it gets judged harder.
And the way some people talk about India — as if it’s just rape, chaos, filth — it’s not concern, it’s condescension. Racism doesn’t always scream. Sometimes it’s just in the assumption that we don’t belong. And honestly, I’m done explaining myself.
If brown folks aren't really wanted, isn't this better for everyone? Fewer queues, fewer complaints, more space. India’s economy is growing fast, and there’s a lot to build. I’d rather do that on my own terms than keep proving I deserve to be here.
And on caste — yes, it exists. But social change isn’t instant anywhere. Black people didn’t have voting rights in the U.S. until recently. We’re evolving too. Inter-caste marriages are rising — me and my wife included. I see change in my generation. But that change has to come from within. And if we don’t return and be part of it, who will?
We’re going back because we care. Because it’s home. It’s not perfect, but it’s ours. And if enough of us return with intent, maybe things move faster.
For what it’s worth — when I came here for my master’s, I planned to return right after. I had a solid job back home. But I liked it here — the energy, the meritocracy. I stayed longer than I expected. But what’s happened recently — especially just this past year — made me rethink. I still respect what this place stood for. But I’ve changed too. And it’s time to go home — as a clear choice.
Idk, isn't it a bit unfair? Couldn't you say Biden was weak too? Like the open border weakened social cohesion, the woke madness weakened social cohesion, the NIMBYism in blue states is holding back US growth, the attack on universities (wokeness) is making US lose the scientific battle, and so on, you get the idea. And I am sure Biden's export control policy was not perfect. Some might say the Iran-policy did more to deter China than anything Biden did. Trump is strengthening the alliance with Phillippines, increasing weapons sales to Taiwan, why is that not mentioned?
Edit: I much more prefer Biden's approach, just thinking the arguments here are a bit thin (when it comes to China)
I wish someone would provide me with a working definition of ‘wokeness’. People seem to throw it around with the same abandon as ‘socialism’, ‘communism’, and Marxism’ sort of a catchall word which really only means “I don’t like them’.
OK, tell me how many of those throwing the term around so easily have ever read the entirety of the piece or understood what it says. And how many simply use it to throw whatever mud they want at the left.
Mud slinging has been a part of politics as long as there has been politics. If you make yourself a prime target for mud slinging, you're just bad at politics. Precisely defining what you hate is academic.
Is this reply supposed to be some sort of revelation? Some will sling mud at anyone with whom they disagree. Abraham Lincoln was a master politician, but some of the attacks made on him were entirely similar, and in many cases worse than what is tossed about today.
When I taught human prehistory and the origins of civilization, I used to start the course with three questions: What does it mean to be human? How did we get to be human. What the hell do we do with all these people?
The three questions are tied together by the same human contradictions that have so far made any really good answer to the last question unachievable. . Since the effects of the Agricultural Revolution have produced the explosion of human populations across the world, no single approach to human government has ever worked to the benefit of all concerned. Some have come closer than others, and those have been the ones which have placed power in the hands of the most members of the state. But the two which came closest, the Greek democracies and the Roman republic were at best momentary blips amidst the overwhelming number of top down governments which have been the norm ever since ’the kingship descended from Heaven’ in ancient Sumer.
The American experiment, the most extraordinary, the most crucial, the riskiest, and the most complex experiment in human society and government ever attempted was, even well before the advent of Marxism and its two closest clones, the best effort ever attempted. It still is, which is why Lincoln called it ‘the last best hope of the earth’.
We were designed to be that nation in which ‘We the People’ might together fined just enough of the courage, the honesty, the compassion, the understanding, the tolerance, the humility, the humor, the wisdom, the hope, and the sheer common sense to rule ourselves from the bottom up with as much justice and equity as was humanly possible. The true nature of American exceptionalism is defined at any given moment by the level of those characteristics in our national, political, social, economic, and religious dialogues.
No other form of government we’ve ever tried has any chance of being as fair and as just to as many as ours could be, but, inevitably, that depends on us.
I don't think you know much about the Roman Republic if you say that. Their voting system was completely rigged in favor of the upper class, and until the Marian reforms military service, which was the most important expression of political rights in society was completely prohibited for the lower class. When this right was given to them, they eventually used it to overthrow the republic.
I said the Republic was one of the two closest things to anything like ours, not that it was identical or even close to it. The Greek democracies, likewise were not in any real way similar to ours. But both were attempts to provide ways in which ‘the people’ could have some say. And our Founders used versions of some of those ideas.
Don’t expect even-handedness and impartiality here when it comes to politics. That’s OK- especially if one is observant and questioning like you. You’ll draw your own conclusions rather than getting caught up in rooting for one team or the other.
All this could have been avoided if Joe and Kamala had simply controlled the border to the mild levels as was done in the 80s and 90s, and not given the voting public the perception that the USA was open to anyone who wanted in. So stupid, especially given they knew Trump was in the wings and what havoc he would wreak.
Yes, I say that despite a booming economy and generally productive policies, the Democrats disastrously lost the election due to their inept politics with regard to the border. To what do you attribute it to?
Those ‘inept’ policies would no doubt include the fact that the last bi-partisan attempt to resolve the border issue was torpedoed by Trump himself solely so that he could continue to use the issue for his own campaign.
To what do I attribute the Democratic loss (speaking as a life-long Independent)?
A great many things, but primarily to the fact that half the nation’s voters simply ignored the fact that Donald Trump was manifestly unfit to hold any elected office by virtue of his utter disdain and disavowal of our electoral process, our Constitution, and the rule of law.
I don’t deny that the Biden administration seriously blundered on the border issue. At the same time, any number of Republican presidential candidates in 2016 , 2020, and 2024 would have worked hard to resolve it once in office without carrying Trump’s baggage. Indeed, most of the Republican leaders who later knelt into line both knew and publicly stated in 2016 the dangers of a Trump presidency.
This was never about the border. After January 6th tthe utter failure of Mitch McConnell and his lickspittle compatriots in the Republican Senate who failed to take Trump permanently off the presidential stage at his second impeachment trial set the stage for all that has happened since.
The border bill that would’ve allowed thousands of migrants to asylum scam each month? That border bill?
Meanwhile the day Trump took office migrant crossings dropped to almost zero. Check the NYT if you don’t believe me. The NYT also finally admitted AFTER Trump won that there was indeed a migrant crisis and you weren’t a neo nazi if you were concerned about it.
The border absolutely had a big effect. One of my friends, an immigrant from China (!!!) who got US citizenship last year refused to vote for Biden because of the border chaos. She was enraged that she waited 10 years to get citizenship meanwhile people with no background checks were just flooding in and getting free food and 5 star hotel rooms and not being deported instantly.
"The border bill that would’ve allowed thousands of migrants to asylum scam each month? That border bill?”
And you are sure that so many are scamming because?
The border bill that had the support of both housed of congress, which, unless I badly miss my guess, is where American law is supposed to be made.
The irony inherent in your statement is that the vast number of those attempting to enter our country were doing so in order to escape just the kind of corrupt, authoritarian government Trump is trying so hard to install here. Of course they’ve stopped. Why jump from the frying pan into the fire.
"And you are sure that so many are scamming because?"
Because real asylum is supposed to be limited to specific threats of prosecution. Like Soviet defectors. Not fleeing gang violence and trying to get to a better life
> The border bill that had the support of both housed of congress
This means nothing. The Chinese Exclusion Act had support from both Houses of Congress. Do you support that too?
> And you are sure that so many are scamming because?
When you pay thousands of dollars to fly from India, China, Vietnam, Laos, Ghana, Turkey etc. to Brazil (which has a pretty generous asylum system itself) and then trek overland through 10+ countries (which includes Panama and Costa Rica - two highly developed countries that fat spoiled Americans love to retire in) to coincidentally arrive in the richest country BY FAR you're not an asylum seeker. You're an economic migrant.
It's the same when Syrians walked through safe countries like Turkey, Serbia, and Hungary to get to Germany and Sweden. Sweden and Germany are far richer than Turkey and Hungary and provide much more generous welfare to asylum seekers. That's just a coincidence I'm sure. Totally asylum seekers, not economic migrants. And nothing says "asylum seeker" like a young military age single male who leaves his entire family behind to be...killed by the corrupt authoritarian government he's allegedly fled. Didn't you know that when Jews fled the Nazis only the young male family members left?
When you throw away your passport to hide your identity so the US can't do a background check on you and can't verify your nationality (and therefore which country to deport you to) that's asylum scamming.
> the vast number of those attempting to enter our country were doing so in order to escape just the kind of corrupt, authoritarian government Trump is trying so hard to install here
This may surprise you but your home government being a dictatorship isn't an inherent reason for asylum. Americans seem to think that all dictatorships are like North Korea but that's not true. In most dictatorships as long as you lay low and don't get political you can live a relatively normal life.
> corrupt, authoritarian government Trump is trying so hard to install here
If the Trump government is so bad that migrants from Venezuela, Turkey, and China are no longer coming here, doesn't this imply that *Americans* now have the right to seek asylum abroad too? I can walk into the Norwegian or Swiss embassy and ask for asylum, right now, because the Trump government is so corrupt and authoritarian? Are you really implying this?
The Democrats had A LOT of self inflicted wounds and absolutely share blame for leading us to this point. There were so many issues that could have carved out a reasonable position on, but refused to do so. They really thought if they just scolded people a LITTLE more they could win forever. It was extremely frustrating to watch.
You got to dance with who brought ya, and the leftist activists and donors called the shots. Biden was simply the meat puppet atop their agenda. What was amazing to me was
1) no plan B, knowing Biden was mentally incompetent from the beginning
2) complete lack of understanding that the Dems lawlessness (whether crime or immigration), social wedge issues (trans et al) and racial discrimination would not be popular with “regular people”.
I worked with immigrants every week - it is clear they hated Covid lockdowns and school closings, they hated the social wedge issues and the crime and the open borders. This wasn’t hard info to pick up.
The executive directors running the NGOs “serving” this community (including the one I volunteered with) all loved the progressive agenda, as did the tycoons and white professionals and state and local governments funding the NGOs. That is who the Dems serve.
The Dems are a party of educated, white professionals and multi-ethnic activists. That is why they lost. The fact that Biden only won by 45,000 votes across three states despite Covid, a deep recession, relentless negative media coverage of Trump’s follies and Trump’s inability to appeal to suburbanites in 2020 was a clear hint that the Dem party had little credibility. If Biden’s handlers had been honest about pushing the progressive agenda rather than letting the “centrist” though gibbering Biden drive it, Biden would have lost in 2020.
The only good news is that post-Trump the Repubs also have no identity and no celebrity atop their next ticket.
Theoretically it might be possible to have Trump serve a third term without a new constitutional amendment. The US Constitution currently says that a President can't be "elected" more than twice, and that someone who can't be President can't be Vice President. So you give Trump the job that's third in line to the Presidency - Speaker of the House of Representatives - and have the President and Vice President resign, making Trump President without having to be "elected" to the position.
Whether or not people would ignore the intent of the term limits amendment and actually let that work is another question.
Anyone assuming that Trump actually takes the time to listen to those who really know what they are talking about, to ponder the pros and cons, to educate himself on the issue, and then to act with consistency and intelligence if fooling themselves.
Actual good news: The DOD has invested in a rare earth mine In California.
"Perhaps lost in the fast-paced news cycle last week, not everyone noticed a move by the Department of Defense to take an ownership stake in MP Materials and agreeing to a 10-year off-take agreement at a specified price for certain rare earth elements. With the investment by DoD and financing from the private sector, MP Materials will mine in California and build facilities there and in Texas to process neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide for the manufacture of advanced permanent magnets that go into a variety of defense systems."
The first 10 paragraphs of a very long post deal with this public - private Investment.
Does the US have the technology to build an extruding plant for the metals? Articles I’ve read appear to say that could take us a long time to get there. Also, where will the extruding facility be located?
The article says that mining and processing will take place in California and magnets will be manufactured in Texas. I don't know anything more than that. The magnets will be made from a combination of two rare earths that are found intermingled at the California Mine.
While this is welcome news I am skeptical. Could this be another Solyndra? The government is not great at venture capital investing. The realization that rare earth metals are important was not lost on Wall St. and mining companies 20 years ago. A lot of companies put money into these businesses that essentially were failures. A combination of local, state and national opposition from neighbors and environmentalists stymied construction and costs were non competitive. We are taking about a dirt, nasty effort where you process a lot of rock to get a little product. I cannot remember how much was invested then but $500 million is just a start. Still this is right direction but you will somehow need to crush (no pun intended) the opponents.
Did you read Turpin's discussion? Previous rare earth ventures failed because China was willing to undersell the market making non-Chinese rare earth production uneconomic. Now, rare earths are being treated as a national security priority and the DOD is committed to buying the product at a price that will sustain production.
Yes , I understand that but being a high cost producer with government being a subsidizing buyer may protect you from a strategic point militarily but not economically. The ROW will continue to buy from the low cost producer - like we have been doing. Rare earth metals are the oil of the electrification/AI economy. We need to figure out how to make them cheaper or take them or make a deal (like with Ukraine) with someone who really needs something we are best at - security/defense.
Ukraine may be part of the answer. Perhaps the EU would be willing to join us in subsidizing non-Chinese rarest production. The one hesitation I have about DOD contracts is there is no incentive to innovate and lower costs. Perhaps we could occasional high value contests seeking cost lowering processes. $10 million for the best suggestion?
More information here from Doomberg. This is not a Solyndra type deal, it’s a purchase agreement and government purchase of preferred stock convertible at a fixed price, which because of the defense department purchase deals means that the company stock has already increased enough that the preferred stock the government bought is already in the black.
Any criticism of Trump has to start with his complete idiocy and incompetence. That's arguably the worst thing here: he has no idea what he is doing, and that's before we get to the fact that he has no serious plan or ideological commitments to lead him in any direction. Trump has not exactly sold us out to China: but I don't doubt he would if they found the right sweeteners.
I suspect Trump is canny enough to scrape by during his term, but we will be vastly weaker for it in the long run. The American voters made a serious error in picking him in 2024.
Okay but why is everyone certain that China has any ambitions beyond irredentism i.e. wanting Taiwan to become a province of the country? They sabre rattle a lot and have issues with their neighbours but they've largely benefitted from trade and want to continue to be a manufacturing superpower with a focus on high-tech goods which countries in the region, apart from Japan and Korea, won't anyway compete on. Despite European and American unhappiness, Europeans and Americans are continuing to buy Chinese goods although they will probably buy less due to tariffs.
Ultimately, the inefficient allocation of resources will mean Chinese companies will have market share but will struggle to be profitable or, crucially, have pricing power or a branding edge while richer countries will quietly continue to transition towards a services and consumption-based economy and possibly loosen immigration policies so that their companies can keep on having more customers. Whatever rivals Chinese companies have in the West will have a geographically distributed workforce.
Instead of Cold War 2, maybe we will end up seeing a world divided up between the land of engineers and the land of artists and office workers?
I don’t think China wants to annex land other than Taiwan. But it certainly wants to vassalize surrounding countries like Russia has done to Belarus. It’s the rational thing to do from a national security perspective.
China has an ongoing border dispute with India and also wants to annex a large part of the South China Sea that the rest of the world considers international waters.
I have heard that internal references to "Outer Manchuria" are growing within China; this is now a part of Russia that includes most of the eastern coast with the Sea of Japan. This is the term used when it was a province of China in dynasties past, and the circulation (along with reminders it was part of China) seems to be appearing more and more in the context of righting past humiliations.
People say this but I don't think Chinese leaders have ever seriously entertained invading nuclear armed Russia.
However, China certainly wants to gain so much power and influence over surrounding states that they are forced to give the Chinese unlimited access to all their natural resources.
Did I miss the part in the piece that speaks of imminent invasion of other countries than Taiwan? (keeping aside the border skirmish with India for now) The subtitle mentions "China's rise"
If you'd remember that Trump and his ilk view America as literally nothing beyond a short-term source of wealth to squeeze however they can, you'd realize that calling them "incompetent" is the most helpful thing you can do for them. Their mentality is that of a hedge fund manager; never invest in future sustained success, just get every dollar you can as fast as you can and then move on once it's destroyed. Nothing ties America's elite to America; they have no ideology, that's just a tool they use to secure popular support. Everything they do is for short-term profit. When America collapses, they'll leave with enormous wealth and sleep soundly. Every motive they have is profit motive.
We know who holds all the cards in a Trade Dispute between China and the US. We need magnets. The WH was quick to point out that the chips being sold to the US were its 4th best chips.
Noah, I thought it was you who wrote a column when the Chinese AI was announced, suggesting that necessity is the mother of invention and that withholding chips from China made them innovate. The withholding of chips forced them to come up with something on their own. I also believe that export controls don’t work. China has secured a third-party buyer for the chips from countries that do not have export controls against them.
This doesn’t mean I think the Trump Administration is being smart. We have so many deficiencies that my comment would run to book length.
We have rare earths. Will we mine them? Mining is dirty work, and it seems we don't have the will to do that these days. The truth is that our economy still rests on the foundations of unpleasant and environmentally destructive things like mining and oil refining and straight up sweat shop style labor for basic manufacturing and food production. Our technological advancement has not come close to eliminating this.
As we have grown rich we have chosen to pretend we are above that sort of thing and outsourced whatever of this unpleasant work we can. For what we can't feasibly outsource we have simply chosen to stop building (e.g. oil refineries and pipelines) or kept out of sight by bringing in illegals who have little contact with the rest of the population (farming and meat processing). The Americans who did these jobs previously have moved into other industries, mostly low pay service sector, and those who were left behind receive disability payments which are at this point a very thinly veiled basic income program.
This system was viable as long as there was no country able to challenge us, but now that China is here it isn't. China is still willing to do the dirty work that our economy is based on and that means we are much more dependent on them than they are on us. This gives them an advantage, and they will press that advantage. Even if we had the will to reverse this (which we don't) it would take decades to reverse just as it took us decades to get into this situation.
Where will we find the money to support an aging population, restore our hollowed out industrial base, and fight a cold war at the same time? It's mathematically possible if we make very hard choices, but this is the domain of politics, not math, and anybody who cuts social security or medicare will quickly find themselves out of a job. This is another key constraint that we face and China doesn't. I think it's time to consider that JD Vance is right, not in terms of ideology, but pragmatism. It seems like the options are to 1. come to terms with China being the number one global power and recognize its sphere of influence in Asia, 2. fight and lose a cold / hot war we can't win, 3. become an authoritarian country that could possibly win a war with China. Out of those options, the first seems the best to me.
This WSJ article suggests we are starting to mine them and even refine them. And that the US Department of Defense is investing in this companies and giving them guaranteed orders.
It also sounds like some big American companies are getting on board as well such as GM and Apple.
Please, Biden’s “industrial policy” was simply about unionized assembly jobs and pleasing his green donors and activists..
Biden used taxpayer money to subsidize the purchase of Chinese batteries, Chinese battery IP (a Chinese company was a partner or IP contributor or component contributor- often all three, in most major EV/battery initiatives subsidized under the IRA) and Chinese battery components. Chinese exports particularly in electronic and auto components skyrocketed under the Biden admin.
Assembling things here does not develop new industries nor even build skills. Russia used to assemble EU cars until 2022. Have you seen a Russian car lately? BMW has been assembling cars in the US for decades. Can Chevy produce a BMW? Assembly and subsidies (or tariffs, basically a subsidy) is about jobs, not about IP or tech or developing industries.
The CHIPs act was a little better, but was a bipartisan policy (the original bipartisan bill launched during Trump’s first term) and is about national security rather than industrial policy. The US knows how to make chips (as do key allies like S Korea and Japan), but US investors and equity analysts, hate cyclical, capital intensive, vertically integrated production. CEOs are rewarded for outsourcing and focusing on high margin activities and IP, not actually building anything. A few subsidies and government contracts and tariffs aren’t going to override those incentives.
Moreover, if America is worried about its supply of skilled labor, paying workers to assemble Chinese battery IP is quite foolish. Save those workers for the defence industry and the chip industry. And maybe invest in basic materials research and next gen battery R&D, or invest in the grid rather than paying rich white people to buy EVs and rooftop solar?
Should we mention the Biden family took millions from the CCP while Biden was ostensibly serving the country as VP, that one of Biden’s first acts was to dismantle the DOJ unit focused on Chinese espionage and influence in business and academia, and that While Biden (like Trump) paid lip service to a TikTok ban, neither took steps to enforce the ban and both solicited TikTok influencers?
I am not saying Trump is better when it comes to China. Noah makes some great points about Trump. Moreover, Trump’s trade policy, like Biden’s “industrial policy” is about jobs, not about IP or building industries. I am neither a big fan of pay people to buy products donors and activists like, nor of taxing people (tariffs) for buying the wrong products.
Basic research, Job training and apprenticeships, investment incentives, etc should all have come before handouts or tariffs. You don’t get union votes or union donations with those policies, unfortunately (they are opposed to job training and apprenticeships and student interns not controlled by unions, eg).
<Basic research, Job training and apprenticeships, investment incentives, etc should all have come before handouts or tariffs. You don’t get union votes or union donations with those policies, unfortunately (they are opposed to job training and apprenticeships and student interns not controlled by unions, eg).>
That's complete and utter BS. The building trades in my neck of the woods (Southern California) are all about apprenticeships and job training, as are most building trades unions more generally. They don't look too kindly on interns, mainly since internships are (A) a gravy train for underpaid labor and (B) only accessible to middle/upper-middle class college kids whose parents can cover their expenses while they basically work for free.
What part of “opposed to apprenticeships, job training, internships….not controlled by unions” did you read and understand? You are merely confirming my point. A guild likes to control the admission and qualification of junior members - shocker, while preventing competition and unaffiliated entrants.
As for internships, I am not talking about college-educated nepo babies working for NGOs or on finance, but high school students wishing to work in manufacturing after HS graduation. US companies should be investing in training junior workers, not just in rote assembly work but tech-enabled operations management (from foremen on up).
<A guild likes to control the admission and qualification of junior members - shocker, while preventing competition and unaffiliated entrants.>
Who is going to run an apprenticeship program 100% out-of-pocket? Corporate America? The same people obsessed with quarterly expectations and share buybacks? Union apprenticeships are an excellent way to introduce young people to blue-collar professions and build a sense of solidarity and community. But of course, you'd hate that because labor unions lean left (actually, many union members would love to divorce the Dems, but not when the GOP is committed to their utter annihilation).
You populist right-wingers are all the same. You sing the praises of the working man when he complains about queers or flag-burning hippies, but when he tries to organize his coworkers (just as shareholder capitalists organize into corporate entities), you're nowhere to be seen. You are a fairweather friend of the working class, and soon enough, you'll reap the grapes of wrath.
Sure, if you know somebody senior in the union you may even get some good work opportunities and a small cut of the no show jobs extorted from private industry.
I’ve been a union member in the manufacturing sector and have numerous family members who are or have been long-time union members.
And yes, corporate tax cuts and investment tax credits and subsidy handouts and tariffs and H1B visas should all be contingent on training American workers.
Given about half of H1Bs go to second tier STEM and business grads from second or third tier Indian universities for doing very basic grunt work, there should be no reason the US can’t have our own second tier grads doing these jobs (corporate partnerships with state universities to train students up)
Not to imply that Trump or his clowns know what they are doing, but it’s possibly strategic to allow exports of the underpowered NVidia H20 to reduce incentives and pressure for China to develop their own higher powered chips. They are well behind NVidia (and AMD) but with enough work they could catch up and maybe this slows them down.
Also, you briefly mentioned rare earths, but not the new DOD deal with MP materials in California which includes investments, incentives, and floor prices for rare earths that the defense department and contractors need. They will be building a billion dollar processing facility and stopped export ping ores to China for processing. Apple then also made a deal to buy a large quantity of rare earths from MP further strengthening.
Doomberg has all the details on the MP Materials deal.
Noah, I did my master’s in computer science from Texas A&M, and I’ve always felt that the U.S. is one of the most beautiful and meritocratic countries in the world. The research funding, the openness to talent, the belief that hard work can take you anywhere — these are the things that made me admire America deeply. My wife is a doctor, and we had been planning to build our life here. For a long time, we saw our future in this country.
But over the past year itself, we started to feel things shifting. Legal immigration didn’t get harder on paper, but it became more exhausting in practice. Every time we re-enter the U.S., the amount of suspicion and interrogation we go through at the airport makes us feel like we’ve done something wrong just by being here. It's not just a one-off — it’s every single time now. You can tell that the system doesn’t see you as someone contributing anymore, but as someone who needs to be watched carefully. It wears you down.
We had already decided to return to India by the end of this year — for many personal and professional reasons (not mentioning the obvious reason because even that might put me in some radar haha) — but reading posts like this one really put into words what we’ve been feeling for a while. It’s painful to watch America slowly move away from the very values that made it so powerful: scientific leadership, trust in institutions, strong alliances, and its welcoming nature. Instead of building, it feels like there’s a constant tearing down.
At the same time, I feel a small kind of patriotic pride too — that India will get two motivated, productive people back. It’s a bittersweet feeling. I still love the U.S. deeply, and I don’t think it’s finished — I genuinely believe it can remain number one. But if even legal, skilled immigrants start quietly walking away, that’s a sign that something is deeply wrong. I hope more people are paying attention before that silent erosion becomes irreversible.
Footnote - And to those who might read this with suspicion: I’m not attacking America. I’m just sharing what it feels like to have loved this country, contributed to it, and still feel like you’re being pushed out.
Mr. Das, you are not attacking America; you are just trying to wake it up. I am sorry that our government has given you reasons to leave.
Thanks, Kathleen — that means a lot. Despite its flaws and even its wars, I’ve always seen America as a force for good for this planet and humanity in general — I just hope it can pull back before it’s too late. I do strongly believe that in the end, democracy prevails — aberrations happen, but the optimist in me believes the country will find its balance again.
For several decades now, the Republican Party has remained electorally competitive through culture wars. This has involved a coalition of big religion, big and small business, the wealthy, and radical libertarians.
All of these groups were invested in reducing the size of government and lowering taxes, leading to unpopular and unsustainable economic policies that benefitted the wealthy, bloated the national debt, and hurt the working class and poor. As such, appeals to cultural issues gave these policies political viability among the segments of the population most hurt by them.
Furthermore, with Evangelicals seeking (among other things) to end the teaching of the theory of evolution in schools, and big business deeply invested in the exploitation of fossil fuels and thus hostile toward the science of climate change, both have had a powerful incentive to discredit what we might call the earth sciences.
Combining that with Vietnam War college deferments rendering our universities bastions of anti-war liberalism, and we suddenly had a Republican Party hostile toward science and higher education. With big business then backing right-wing firebrands on AM radio stations across the country, these cultural divides were exacerbated.
Eventually, the Republican Party, once the more educated of the two, became the political home to America's anti-intellectualism and paranoid conspiracy theory mongering, with a shrinking top layer of educated elites holding it all together.
Meanwhile, educated and increasingly upwardly mobile liberal Democrats who still supported policies of downward redistribution of wealth were alienated from the white working class by cultural "wedge" issues exploited by Republicans in order to cling to power, with the working class being slowly conditioned to hate liberals and Democrats.
Because of this, half of this country now seems incapable of sound judgement with regard to their elected officials, thrice elevating an incompetent carnival barker to the top of their Presidential ticket. Resenting the "elites" who look down on them, they fail to recognize that their Party is still run by "elites" who demonstrate their disdain by very much taking advantage of the increasingly cloistered bubble of disinformation and ignorance they've constructed around them.
In other words, half of Americans now inhabit the real world and half of us are plugged into the MAGA Matrix. And that's a long term problem with no obvious solutions.
Well at least we know it's always the Republicans fault. With all their dirty evil plans.
It's not like the Democrats has any agency as they pushed further and further left wondering why the dumb rubes can't get in line and get the new values that their betters say they should have.
Nowhere did I say that the left was blameless or perfect, but the comparison is night and day. At least respond to my specific points instead of giving a sarcastic, boilerplate "oh I suppose Democrats are blameless ..." response.
I criticize the left all the time. I was very much absorbed into the movement to counter the excesses of wokeness in 2021, because they were often way over the line and borderline hysterical. And yet what it seemed to end up accomplishing is a collective amnesia regarding Trump's palpable awfulness.
It has become more apparent than ever that Trump is a narcissistic sociopath, a know-nothing institutional arsonist, and an astonishingly corrupt criminal authoritarian who threatens American democracy more with each passing day. We have never seen such a malignant public figure in our lifetimes.
Now which party produced him? Don't tell me that it's the fault of Democrats and liberals. It was the Republican electorate who chose this guy. The party elites created the environment which allowed him to thrive.
For years I listened to nothing but constant demonization of liberals from the right-wing mainstream, which grew more and more radical all the time. Tell me, which party was it whose Speaker retired *while still holding the gavel* because the party was being taken over by crazies and lunatics? Democrats have an extremist fringe, but have they let it take over like the Republicans have?
Ok, let's dig into some specifics then...
"All of these groups were invested in reducing the size of government and lowering taxes, leading to unpopular and unsustainable economic policies that benefitted the wealthy, bloated the national debt, and hurt the working class and poor."
There's huge disagreement with that statement. For example, US GDP per Capita is $89k Germany is at $56k , Canada is at $54k. So the US is about 60% richer than freaken Germany.
Those on the right would argue (and I would argue) some of the primary reasons we in the US are SO much richer is because of lower taxes and a better regulatory environment. And that a policy that is focused on growing the economy raises all boats, including the working class and poor.
Likewise the businesses have a preference for fossil fuels do so because of cost and reliability. It's not some big conspiracy, businesses like consumers want energy to be cheap and reliable.
For example, you can't get a majority of consumers to pay even $1 more for green energy
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-return-of-all-of-the-above
for reference, I might be willing to pay $10, that would be it. Which puts me way to the left of the average American on energy
"white working class by cultural "wedge" issues exploited by Republicans in order to cling to power, with the working class being slowly conditioned to hate liberals and Democrats."
It wasn't Republicans that conditioned the working class to hate liberals. It was liberals contempt for working class people and traditional values that did that.
Let's not forget Obama's "cling to guns and religion comment" or Clinton's "Deplorable" comment.
Note I'm a never Trump-er so I agree that Trump is bad. And I wish that Dems hadn't swung so far left that America voted for Trump TWICE.
I maintain a Bill Clinton type candidate would have crushed Trump, so would Obama of 2008.
Yes .... like one could not look in the mirror and say the reason why opposition has traction is not the rubes are suffering from False Consciousness / lack of sufficient Correct Party Thinking but rather I'm way off:
(Noah after election: The educated professional class is out of touch with America
Lesson #3 from Trump's victory.: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-educated-professional-class-is)
Professional Class-Splaining is not a path to success but is w/o doubt a nice comforting self-congratulation one is not really off, it's everyone else because they're not clever enough to think like you.
I've done plenty of looking in the mirror. We all have. In fact, it's astonishing how much navel-gazing the so-called liberal media have done in response to Trump getting elected, and they repeated it after the 2024 election, ad nauseum, until Trump's abuses and corruption took center stage, again.
Do you not see the irony in that articles like Noah's—the one you link to here—are written by the same people who are supposedly so out of touch? They're *all over the place*. For being out of touch, anti-Trump blue state professionals are awfully conscientious.
You want to say it's only a select group of reasonable people on the left? Then tell me, did you see anything similar on the right when Biden won? Did right wing influencers and journalists go on Safari to blue counties to try to get a sense of the perspective of liberal-minded people? Was there any self reflection, or "looking in the mirror", as you say, on their part?
Of course not. Not only because of the fact they clearly despise us far more than we do them, but because there was nothing but unhinged, deranged denial of the fact that Trump lost. Followed,of course, by mass delusions of crooked activity by the Biden administration, served up by Republican politicians like James Comer with no scruples and perfectly happy to kowtow to Trump's irresponsible hallucinations for political gain.
The upshot is, you can delve into all the charts and statistics you want to counter the charts and statistics that you believe dictate your anti-Republican biases in the first place, and convince yourself that this is all entirely understandable economic anxiety—but that's an out of touch stereotype of its own. Talk to some people who actually know Trump-supporting MAGA working class types and ask them how accurate they think this is.
Do you deny that Trump's voter base is massively misinformed about an astonishing array of things? Two thirds of Republicans think the 2020 election was stolen. Around one third of them think that there was some truth to the QAnon conspiracy theories. Anti-vaccine sentiment is running rampant among Republicans now, leading to resurgences of diseases we thought we'd eliminated. Evangelical Christians are largely unperturbed by shutting down PEPFAR, apparently believing it was some den of corruption rather than a program that has saved the lives of millions of people. And it's taken this whole Jeffrey Epstein saga to get them to kinda sorta notice the obvious, open corruption of the DOJ under Trump.
I could go on at length.
Tell me, do you think, all things considered, it was a good idea to elect Trump? That the left's occasional overzealous advocacy of transgender athletes or gender affirming therapy for teens was a good reasons to vote for Trump? Do you think Americans exercised good, sound judgement in putting this man back in power, given everything we already knew about him?
Because I think the answer to that is obvious. How much longer should I sit here with a patronizing air of infantilization toward grown adults, stroking their hair and saying, "it's not your fault, you didn't know any better." The right constantly accuses the left of babying minority groups and catering to their persecution complexes, and yet they do the same thing with working class white people. How dare we look down on them!
I'm perfectly happy to allow that these people are misinformed due to the dishonesty of right-wing elites—and that people on the left have their own bubbles of misinformation. In fact my post was focused on what the Republican Party establishment had wrought through their cynical exploitation of low-information voters.
But there is simply no getting around the fact that these people are low-information voters, and that whatever biases and misconceptions the blue-state professional class has, the level of delusion required to deny that Donald Trump is an existential threat to America as we know it is in a class if its own. Blame them or blame the Republican Party, it is what it is.
The rubes are getting fleeced, and all of the supposed failures of the Democratic Party to relate on a personal or cultural level—a perpetually uphill struggle given the incessant branding of Democrats as hyper-extremists by right-wing propaganda outlets—don't change the sad fact that America's working class has become such a cheap date by surrendering their critical faculties to whatever swaggering dope best owns the libs.
Evidently you haven't done enough actual looking in mirror except in navel gzing.
What Trump side people do is of literally no concern to me. It's not playground Billy is not Playing Fair.
Understanding why one's product is failing requires understanding the market. And understanding how to sell to the market.
Misinformation ... a Lefty Cope for "I failed to make the sale."
You want to rant on from a Great Moral Concern PoV while self-congratulating the Lefty Prof Class for being better people etc. ... have fun
I prefer that MAGA start losing and the US get out of Crazy town
That means starting to Win
Starting to Win means dropping the blinders and learing how to make the sale in all the electoral states one needs not to lose, and that means a different product and certainly not a sales demarche that starts from "Let us Convert the benighted heathen to the One True Information and the One True Politis from their Misinformed Non Engagement."
"That means starting to Win"
Yep, which is going to mean moving right on culture war issues and reembracing traditional American values.
color blindness. Israel is good, Hamas is bad, you can't change your sex etc
I’m with Ms Weber!
You'll be back. India is hopeless.
Not really.
We're moving back for personal, professional, and honestly, emotional reasons. It’s not some dramatic exit — just a clear decision after watching how things have been shifting. And no, I don’t see us coming back.
India has problems, no doubt. But it’s also open. Our flaws are visible because we don’t hide them. That’s the price of being a democracy. China doesn’t get the same scrutiny — not because things are better there, but because the system blocks the world from seeing anything real. India doesn’t have that filter — so it gets judged harder.
And the way some people talk about India — as if it’s just rape, chaos, filth — it’s not concern, it’s condescension. Racism doesn’t always scream. Sometimes it’s just in the assumption that we don’t belong. And honestly, I’m done explaining myself.
If brown folks aren't really wanted, isn't this better for everyone? Fewer queues, fewer complaints, more space. India’s economy is growing fast, and there’s a lot to build. I’d rather do that on my own terms than keep proving I deserve to be here.
And on caste — yes, it exists. But social change isn’t instant anywhere. Black people didn’t have voting rights in the U.S. until recently. We’re evolving too. Inter-caste marriages are rising — me and my wife included. I see change in my generation. But that change has to come from within. And if we don’t return and be part of it, who will?
We’re going back because we care. Because it’s home. It’s not perfect, but it’s ours. And if enough of us return with intent, maybe things move faster.
For what it’s worth — when I came here for my master’s, I planned to return right after. I had a solid job back home. But I liked it here — the energy, the meritocracy. I stayed longer than I expected. But what’s happened recently — especially just this past year — made me rethink. I still respect what this place stood for. But I’ve changed too. And it’s time to go home — as a clear choice.
Try entering Canada!
I hope your wife won’t mind not being able to go outside alone due to rampant sexual harassment and gang rape in India.
Oh she'll be getting a break from the daily school shootings and drive bys that are rampant in the USA....
Idk, isn't it a bit unfair? Couldn't you say Biden was weak too? Like the open border weakened social cohesion, the woke madness weakened social cohesion, the NIMBYism in blue states is holding back US growth, the attack on universities (wokeness) is making US lose the scientific battle, and so on, you get the idea. And I am sure Biden's export control policy was not perfect. Some might say the Iran-policy did more to deter China than anything Biden did. Trump is strengthening the alliance with Phillippines, increasing weapons sales to Taiwan, why is that not mentioned?
Edit: I much more prefer Biden's approach, just thinking the arguments here are a bit thin (when it comes to China)
I wish someone would provide me with a working definition of ‘wokeness’. People seem to throw it around with the same abandon as ‘socialism’, ‘communism’, and Marxism’ sort of a catchall word which really only means “I don’t like them’.
https://web.archive.org/web/20230404013504/https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p/of-course-you-know-what-woke-means
OK, tell me how many of those throwing the term around so easily have ever read the entirety of the piece or understood what it says. And how many simply use it to throw whatever mud they want at the left.
I agree it’s often misused. You said you wished someone would provide you with a working definition of wokeness, so I did.
deBoer notes "Correspondingly all of politics can be decomposed down to the right thoughts and right utterances of enlightened people.”
Sounds to me like an awful lot of folks on all sides of our current poetical maelstrom.
Mud slinging has been a part of politics as long as there has been politics. If you make yourself a prime target for mud slinging, you're just bad at politics. Precisely defining what you hate is academic.
Is this reply supposed to be some sort of revelation? Some will sling mud at anyone with whom they disagree. Abraham Lincoln was a master politician, but some of the attacks made on him were entirely similar, and in many cases worse than what is tossed about today.
Real socialism, communism and Marxism have never been tried. The final definitions are awaiting a successful example.
When I taught human prehistory and the origins of civilization, I used to start the course with three questions: What does it mean to be human? How did we get to be human. What the hell do we do with all these people?
The three questions are tied together by the same human contradictions that have so far made any really good answer to the last question unachievable. . Since the effects of the Agricultural Revolution have produced the explosion of human populations across the world, no single approach to human government has ever worked to the benefit of all concerned. Some have come closer than others, and those have been the ones which have placed power in the hands of the most members of the state. But the two which came closest, the Greek democracies and the Roman republic were at best momentary blips amidst the overwhelming number of top down governments which have been the norm ever since ’the kingship descended from Heaven’ in ancient Sumer.
The American experiment, the most extraordinary, the most crucial, the riskiest, and the most complex experiment in human society and government ever attempted was, even well before the advent of Marxism and its two closest clones, the best effort ever attempted. It still is, which is why Lincoln called it ‘the last best hope of the earth’.
We were designed to be that nation in which ‘We the People’ might together fined just enough of the courage, the honesty, the compassion, the understanding, the tolerance, the humility, the humor, the wisdom, the hope, and the sheer common sense to rule ourselves from the bottom up with as much justice and equity as was humanly possible. The true nature of American exceptionalism is defined at any given moment by the level of those characteristics in our national, political, social, economic, and religious dialogues.
No other form of government we’ve ever tried has any chance of being as fair and as just to as many as ours could be, but, inevitably, that depends on us.
I don't think you know much about the Roman Republic if you say that. Their voting system was completely rigged in favor of the upper class, and until the Marian reforms military service, which was the most important expression of political rights in society was completely prohibited for the lower class. When this right was given to them, they eventually used it to overthrow the republic.
I said the Republic was one of the two closest things to anything like ours, not that it was identical or even close to it. The Greek democracies, likewise were not in any real way similar to ours. But both were attempts to provide ways in which ‘the people’ could have some say. And our Founders used versions of some of those ideas.
Thank you for an unnecessarily reasoned reply to what was meant to be a funny/snarky comment
Your comment was neither, even if you may not have meant it that way.
Your graciousness and omnipotence impresses me so😂🤪
Don’t expect even-handedness and impartiality here when it comes to politics. That’s OK- especially if one is observant and questioning like you. You’ll draw your own conclusions rather than getting caught up in rooting for one team or the other.
I think you are misunderstanding the H20 policy slightly - there are good reasons to encourage China to remain dependent on NVIDIA chips - worth reading Ben Thompson on this. https://stratechery.com/2025/ai-promise-and-chip-precariousness/
Agree that he doesn't seem to be getting anything from the Chinese for these concessions - and the rest of your note is great and agree 100%
My understanding is that it was done to allow us to get the magnets we need.
All this could have been avoided if Joe and Kamala had simply controlled the border to the mild levels as was done in the 80s and 90s, and not given the voting public the perception that the USA was open to anyone who wanted in. So stupid, especially given they knew Trump was in the wings and what havoc he would wreak.
Blame it all on the border, right? As simplistic as so much of the rest of the criticism from the right.
Yes, I say that despite a booming economy and generally productive policies, the Democrats disastrously lost the election due to their inept politics with regard to the border. To what do you attribute it to?
Those ‘inept’ policies would no doubt include the fact that the last bi-partisan attempt to resolve the border issue was torpedoed by Trump himself solely so that he could continue to use the issue for his own campaign.
To what do I attribute the Democratic loss (speaking as a life-long Independent)?
A great many things, but primarily to the fact that half the nation’s voters simply ignored the fact that Donald Trump was manifestly unfit to hold any elected office by virtue of his utter disdain and disavowal of our electoral process, our Constitution, and the rule of law.
I don’t deny that the Biden administration seriously blundered on the border issue. At the same time, any number of Republican presidential candidates in 2016 , 2020, and 2024 would have worked hard to resolve it once in office without carrying Trump’s baggage. Indeed, most of the Republican leaders who later knelt into line both knew and publicly stated in 2016 the dangers of a Trump presidency.
This was never about the border. After January 6th tthe utter failure of Mitch McConnell and his lickspittle compatriots in the Republican Senate who failed to take Trump permanently off the presidential stage at his second impeachment trial set the stage for all that has happened since.
The border bill that would’ve allowed thousands of migrants to asylum scam each month? That border bill?
Meanwhile the day Trump took office migrant crossings dropped to almost zero. Check the NYT if you don’t believe me. The NYT also finally admitted AFTER Trump won that there was indeed a migrant crisis and you weren’t a neo nazi if you were concerned about it.
The border absolutely had a big effect. One of my friends, an immigrant from China (!!!) who got US citizenship last year refused to vote for Biden because of the border chaos. She was enraged that she waited 10 years to get citizenship meanwhile people with no background checks were just flooding in and getting free food and 5 star hotel rooms and not being deported instantly.
"The border bill that would’ve allowed thousands of migrants to asylum scam each month? That border bill?”
And you are sure that so many are scamming because?
The border bill that had the support of both housed of congress, which, unless I badly miss my guess, is where American law is supposed to be made.
The irony inherent in your statement is that the vast number of those attempting to enter our country were doing so in order to escape just the kind of corrupt, authoritarian government Trump is trying so hard to install here. Of course they’ve stopped. Why jump from the frying pan into the fire.
"And you are sure that so many are scamming because?"
Because real asylum is supposed to be limited to specific threats of prosecution. Like Soviet defectors. Not fleeing gang violence and trying to get to a better life
> The border bill that had the support of both housed of congress
This means nothing. The Chinese Exclusion Act had support from both Houses of Congress. Do you support that too?
> And you are sure that so many are scamming because?
When you pay thousands of dollars to fly from India, China, Vietnam, Laos, Ghana, Turkey etc. to Brazil (which has a pretty generous asylum system itself) and then trek overland through 10+ countries (which includes Panama and Costa Rica - two highly developed countries that fat spoiled Americans love to retire in) to coincidentally arrive in the richest country BY FAR you're not an asylum seeker. You're an economic migrant.
It's the same when Syrians walked through safe countries like Turkey, Serbia, and Hungary to get to Germany and Sweden. Sweden and Germany are far richer than Turkey and Hungary and provide much more generous welfare to asylum seekers. That's just a coincidence I'm sure. Totally asylum seekers, not economic migrants. And nothing says "asylum seeker" like a young military age single male who leaves his entire family behind to be...killed by the corrupt authoritarian government he's allegedly fled. Didn't you know that when Jews fled the Nazis only the young male family members left?
When you throw away your passport to hide your identity so the US can't do a background check on you and can't verify your nationality (and therefore which country to deport you to) that's asylum scamming.
> the vast number of those attempting to enter our country were doing so in order to escape just the kind of corrupt, authoritarian government Trump is trying so hard to install here
This may surprise you but your home government being a dictatorship isn't an inherent reason for asylum. Americans seem to think that all dictatorships are like North Korea but that's not true. In most dictatorships as long as you lay low and don't get political you can live a relatively normal life.
> corrupt, authoritarian government Trump is trying so hard to install here
If the Trump government is so bad that migrants from Venezuela, Turkey, and China are no longer coming here, doesn't this imply that *Americans* now have the right to seek asylum abroad too? I can walk into the Norwegian or Swiss embassy and ask for asylum, right now, because the Trump government is so corrupt and authoritarian? Are you really implying this?
The Democrats had A LOT of self inflicted wounds and absolutely share blame for leading us to this point. There were so many issues that could have carved out a reasonable position on, but refused to do so. They really thought if they just scolded people a LITTLE more they could win forever. It was extremely frustrating to watch.
You got to dance with who brought ya, and the leftist activists and donors called the shots. Biden was simply the meat puppet atop their agenda. What was amazing to me was
1) no plan B, knowing Biden was mentally incompetent from the beginning
2) complete lack of understanding that the Dems lawlessness (whether crime or immigration), social wedge issues (trans et al) and racial discrimination would not be popular with “regular people”.
I worked with immigrants every week - it is clear they hated Covid lockdowns and school closings, they hated the social wedge issues and the crime and the open borders. This wasn’t hard info to pick up.
The executive directors running the NGOs “serving” this community (including the one I volunteered with) all loved the progressive agenda, as did the tycoons and white professionals and state and local governments funding the NGOs. That is who the Dems serve.
The Dems are a party of educated, white professionals and multi-ethnic activists. That is why they lost. The fact that Biden only won by 45,000 votes across three states despite Covid, a deep recession, relentless negative media coverage of Trump’s follies and Trump’s inability to appeal to suburbanites in 2020 was a clear hint that the Dem party had little credibility. If Biden’s handlers had been honest about pushing the progressive agenda rather than letting the “centrist” though gibbering Biden drive it, Biden would have lost in 2020.
The only good news is that post-Trump the Repubs also have no identity and no celebrity atop their next ticket.
Theoretically it might be possible to have Trump serve a third term without a new constitutional amendment. The US Constitution currently says that a President can't be "elected" more than twice, and that someone who can't be President can't be Vice President. So you give Trump the job that's third in line to the Presidency - Speaker of the House of Representatives - and have the President and Vice President resign, making Trump President without having to be "elected" to the position.
Whether or not people would ignore the intent of the term limits amendment and actually let that work is another question.
I agree with that, but the far left slide on Trans issues, and the refusal to take inflation seriously also were big factors.
They have chosen their hill and now they will die on it. Same as the Europeans.
Anyone assuming that Trump actually takes the time to listen to those who really know what they are talking about, to ponder the pros and cons, to educate himself on the issue, and then to act with consistency and intelligence if fooling themselves.
Actual good news: The DOD has invested in a rare earth mine In California.
"Perhaps lost in the fast-paced news cycle last week, not everyone noticed a move by the Department of Defense to take an ownership stake in MP Materials and agreeing to a 10-year off-take agreement at a specified price for certain rare earth elements. With the investment by DoD and financing from the private sector, MP Materials will mine in California and build facilities there and in Texas to process neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide for the manufacture of advanced permanent magnets that go into a variety of defense systems."
The first 10 paragraphs of a very long post deal with this public - private Investment.
https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/powers-of-attraction
WSJ had a pretty good article on this too
https://www.wsj.com/business/us-rare-earth-producer-texas-58796240?st=3si6kA&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Does the US have the technology to build an extruding plant for the metals? Articles I’ve read appear to say that could take us a long time to get there. Also, where will the extruding facility be located?
The article says that mining and processing will take place in California and magnets will be manufactured in Texas. I don't know anything more than that. The magnets will be made from a combination of two rare earths that are found intermingled at the California Mine.
While this is welcome news I am skeptical. Could this be another Solyndra? The government is not great at venture capital investing. The realization that rare earth metals are important was not lost on Wall St. and mining companies 20 years ago. A lot of companies put money into these businesses that essentially were failures. A combination of local, state and national opposition from neighbors and environmentalists stymied construction and costs were non competitive. We are taking about a dirt, nasty effort where you process a lot of rock to get a little product. I cannot remember how much was invested then but $500 million is just a start. Still this is right direction but you will somehow need to crush (no pun intended) the opponents.
Did you read Turpin's discussion? Previous rare earth ventures failed because China was willing to undersell the market making non-Chinese rare earth production uneconomic. Now, rare earths are being treated as a national security priority and the DOD is committed to buying the product at a price that will sustain production.
Yes , I understand that but being a high cost producer with government being a subsidizing buyer may protect you from a strategic point militarily but not economically. The ROW will continue to buy from the low cost producer - like we have been doing. Rare earth metals are the oil of the electrification/AI economy. We need to figure out how to make them cheaper or take them or make a deal (like with Ukraine) with someone who really needs something we are best at - security/defense.
I think a lot of companies are starting to realize the supply chain vulnerabilities.
I believe GM has agreed to be a core customer, Apple as well
https://www.wsj.com/business/us-rare-earth-producer-texas-58796240?st=3si6kA&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Ukraine may be part of the answer. Perhaps the EU would be willing to join us in subsidizing non-Chinese rarest production. The one hesitation I have about DOD contracts is there is no incentive to innovate and lower costs. Perhaps we could occasional high value contests seeking cost lowering processes. $10 million for the best suggestion?
More information here from Doomberg. This is not a Solyndra type deal, it’s a purchase agreement and government purchase of preferred stock convertible at a fixed price, which because of the defense department purchase deals means that the company stock has already increased enough that the preferred stock the government bought is already in the black.
https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/how-its-done
Processing plants more important than mines, and they don’t need to be in the US necessarily. Agree potential risk of Solyndra!
Any criticism of Trump has to start with his complete idiocy and incompetence. That's arguably the worst thing here: he has no idea what he is doing, and that's before we get to the fact that he has no serious plan or ideological commitments to lead him in any direction. Trump has not exactly sold us out to China: but I don't doubt he would if they found the right sweeteners.
I suspect Trump is canny enough to scrape by during his term, but we will be vastly weaker for it in the long run. The American voters made a serious error in picking him in 2024.
I’d put money on Kamala having more idiocy and incompetence and weakness.
Incisiveness and common sense were not on the ballot in 2024.
It's really, really hard to out-stupid Trump. I'd even take George W. Bush back.
Okay but why is everyone certain that China has any ambitions beyond irredentism i.e. wanting Taiwan to become a province of the country? They sabre rattle a lot and have issues with their neighbours but they've largely benefitted from trade and want to continue to be a manufacturing superpower with a focus on high-tech goods which countries in the region, apart from Japan and Korea, won't anyway compete on. Despite European and American unhappiness, Europeans and Americans are continuing to buy Chinese goods although they will probably buy less due to tariffs.
Ultimately, the inefficient allocation of resources will mean Chinese companies will have market share but will struggle to be profitable or, crucially, have pricing power or a branding edge while richer countries will quietly continue to transition towards a services and consumption-based economy and possibly loosen immigration policies so that their companies can keep on having more customers. Whatever rivals Chinese companies have in the West will have a geographically distributed workforce.
Instead of Cold War 2, maybe we will end up seeing a world divided up between the land of engineers and the land of artists and office workers?
I don’t think China wants to annex land other than Taiwan. But it certainly wants to vassalize surrounding countries like Russia has done to Belarus. It’s the rational thing to do from a national security perspective.
China has an ongoing border dispute with India and also wants to annex a large part of the South China Sea that the rest of the world considers international waters.
I have heard that internal references to "Outer Manchuria" are growing within China; this is now a part of Russia that includes most of the eastern coast with the Sea of Japan. This is the term used when it was a province of China in dynasties past, and the circulation (along with reminders it was part of China) seems to be appearing more and more in the context of righting past humiliations.
People say this but I don't think Chinese leaders have ever seriously entertained invading nuclear armed Russia.
However, China certainly wants to gain so much power and influence over surrounding states that they are forced to give the Chinese unlimited access to all their natural resources.
Did I miss the part in the piece that speaks of imminent invasion of other countries than Taiwan? (keeping aside the border skirmish with India for now) The subtitle mentions "China's rise"
That said: invading Taiwan is bad
If you'd remember that Trump and his ilk view America as literally nothing beyond a short-term source of wealth to squeeze however they can, you'd realize that calling them "incompetent" is the most helpful thing you can do for them. Their mentality is that of a hedge fund manager; never invest in future sustained success, just get every dollar you can as fast as you can and then move on once it's destroyed. Nothing ties America's elite to America; they have no ideology, that's just a tool they use to secure popular support. Everything they do is for short-term profit. When America collapses, they'll leave with enormous wealth and sleep soundly. Every motive they have is profit motive.
And progressives are enabling Islamist terrorists. Can we rid the Democratic Party of them?
We know who holds all the cards in a Trade Dispute between China and the US. We need magnets. The WH was quick to point out that the chips being sold to the US were its 4th best chips.
Noah, I thought it was you who wrote a column when the Chinese AI was announced, suggesting that necessity is the mother of invention and that withholding chips from China made them innovate. The withholding of chips forced them to come up with something on their own. I also believe that export controls don’t work. China has secured a third-party buyer for the chips from countries that do not have export controls against them.
This doesn’t mean I think the Trump Administration is being smart. We have so many deficiencies that my comment would run to book length.
We have rare earths. Will we mine them? Mining is dirty work, and it seems we don't have the will to do that these days. The truth is that our economy still rests on the foundations of unpleasant and environmentally destructive things like mining and oil refining and straight up sweat shop style labor for basic manufacturing and food production. Our technological advancement has not come close to eliminating this.
As we have grown rich we have chosen to pretend we are above that sort of thing and outsourced whatever of this unpleasant work we can. For what we can't feasibly outsource we have simply chosen to stop building (e.g. oil refineries and pipelines) or kept out of sight by bringing in illegals who have little contact with the rest of the population (farming and meat processing). The Americans who did these jobs previously have moved into other industries, mostly low pay service sector, and those who were left behind receive disability payments which are at this point a very thinly veiled basic income program.
This system was viable as long as there was no country able to challenge us, but now that China is here it isn't. China is still willing to do the dirty work that our economy is based on and that means we are much more dependent on them than they are on us. This gives them an advantage, and they will press that advantage. Even if we had the will to reverse this (which we don't) it would take decades to reverse just as it took us decades to get into this situation.
Where will we find the money to support an aging population, restore our hollowed out industrial base, and fight a cold war at the same time? It's mathematically possible if we make very hard choices, but this is the domain of politics, not math, and anybody who cuts social security or medicare will quickly find themselves out of a job. This is another key constraint that we face and China doesn't. I think it's time to consider that JD Vance is right, not in terms of ideology, but pragmatism. It seems like the options are to 1. come to terms with China being the number one global power and recognize its sphere of influence in Asia, 2. fight and lose a cold / hot war we can't win, 3. become an authoritarian country that could possibly win a war with China. Out of those options, the first seems the best to me.
This WSJ article suggests we are starting to mine them and even refine them. And that the US Department of Defense is investing in this companies and giving them guaranteed orders.
It also sounds like some big American companies are getting on board as well such as GM and Apple.
https://www.wsj.com/business/us-rare-earth-producer-texas-58796240?st=3si6kA&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
That is much better news than I expected.
Russia has a large Muslim minority, funny enough. They have Chechens, central Asians and others.
Please, Biden’s “industrial policy” was simply about unionized assembly jobs and pleasing his green donors and activists..
Biden used taxpayer money to subsidize the purchase of Chinese batteries, Chinese battery IP (a Chinese company was a partner or IP contributor or component contributor- often all three, in most major EV/battery initiatives subsidized under the IRA) and Chinese battery components. Chinese exports particularly in electronic and auto components skyrocketed under the Biden admin.
Assembling things here does not develop new industries nor even build skills. Russia used to assemble EU cars until 2022. Have you seen a Russian car lately? BMW has been assembling cars in the US for decades. Can Chevy produce a BMW? Assembly and subsidies (or tariffs, basically a subsidy) is about jobs, not about IP or tech or developing industries.
The CHIPs act was a little better, but was a bipartisan policy (the original bipartisan bill launched during Trump’s first term) and is about national security rather than industrial policy. The US knows how to make chips (as do key allies like S Korea and Japan), but US investors and equity analysts, hate cyclical, capital intensive, vertically integrated production. CEOs are rewarded for outsourcing and focusing on high margin activities and IP, not actually building anything. A few subsidies and government contracts and tariffs aren’t going to override those incentives.
Moreover, if America is worried about its supply of skilled labor, paying workers to assemble Chinese battery IP is quite foolish. Save those workers for the defence industry and the chip industry. And maybe invest in basic materials research and next gen battery R&D, or invest in the grid rather than paying rich white people to buy EVs and rooftop solar?
Should we mention the Biden family took millions from the CCP while Biden was ostensibly serving the country as VP, that one of Biden’s first acts was to dismantle the DOJ unit focused on Chinese espionage and influence in business and academia, and that While Biden (like Trump) paid lip service to a TikTok ban, neither took steps to enforce the ban and both solicited TikTok influencers?
I am not saying Trump is better when it comes to China. Noah makes some great points about Trump. Moreover, Trump’s trade policy, like Biden’s “industrial policy” is about jobs, not about IP or building industries. I am neither a big fan of pay people to buy products donors and activists like, nor of taxing people (tariffs) for buying the wrong products.
Basic research, Job training and apprenticeships, investment incentives, etc should all have come before handouts or tariffs. You don’t get union votes or union donations with those policies, unfortunately (they are opposed to job training and apprenticeships and student interns not controlled by unions, eg).
<Basic research, Job training and apprenticeships, investment incentives, etc should all have come before handouts or tariffs. You don’t get union votes or union donations with those policies, unfortunately (they are opposed to job training and apprenticeships and student interns not controlled by unions, eg).>
That's complete and utter BS. The building trades in my neck of the woods (Southern California) are all about apprenticeships and job training, as are most building trades unions more generally. They don't look too kindly on interns, mainly since internships are (A) a gravy train for underpaid labor and (B) only accessible to middle/upper-middle class college kids whose parents can cover their expenses while they basically work for free.
What part of “opposed to apprenticeships, job training, internships….not controlled by unions” did you read and understand? You are merely confirming my point. A guild likes to control the admission and qualification of junior members - shocker, while preventing competition and unaffiliated entrants.
As for internships, I am not talking about college-educated nepo babies working for NGOs or on finance, but high school students wishing to work in manufacturing after HS graduation. US companies should be investing in training junior workers, not just in rote assembly work but tech-enabled operations management (from foremen on up).
<A guild likes to control the admission and qualification of junior members - shocker, while preventing competition and unaffiliated entrants.>
Who is going to run an apprenticeship program 100% out-of-pocket? Corporate America? The same people obsessed with quarterly expectations and share buybacks? Union apprenticeships are an excellent way to introduce young people to blue-collar professions and build a sense of solidarity and community. But of course, you'd hate that because labor unions lean left (actually, many union members would love to divorce the Dems, but not when the GOP is committed to their utter annihilation).
You populist right-wingers are all the same. You sing the praises of the working man when he complains about queers or flag-burning hippies, but when he tries to organize his coworkers (just as shareholder capitalists organize into corporate entities), you're nowhere to be seen. You are a fairweather friend of the working class, and soon enough, you'll reap the grapes of wrath.
Sure, if you know somebody senior in the union you may even get some good work opportunities and a small cut of the no show jobs extorted from private industry.
I’ve been a union member in the manufacturing sector and have numerous family members who are or have been long-time union members.
And yes, corporate tax cuts and investment tax credits and subsidy handouts and tariffs and H1B visas should all be contingent on training American workers.
Given about half of H1Bs go to second tier STEM and business grads from second or third tier Indian universities for doing very basic grunt work, there should be no reason the US can’t have our own second tier grads doing these jobs (corporate partnerships with state universities to train students up)
Not to imply that Trump or his clowns know what they are doing, but it’s possibly strategic to allow exports of the underpowered NVidia H20 to reduce incentives and pressure for China to develop their own higher powered chips. They are well behind NVidia (and AMD) but with enough work they could catch up and maybe this slows them down.
Also, you briefly mentioned rare earths, but not the new DOD deal with MP materials in California which includes investments, incentives, and floor prices for rare earths that the defense department and contractors need. They will be building a billion dollar processing facility and stopped export ping ores to China for processing. Apple then also made a deal to buy a large quantity of rare earths from MP further strengthening.
Doomberg has all the details on the MP Materials deal.
https://open.substack.com/pub/doomberg/p/how-its-done
I feel like Western institutions in general are becoming more chaotic and increasingly inefficient at governance - sincerely a British Londoner