Brave and honest self-assessment inherently deserves applause. Two thoughts: (1) long-term trends almost never play out in smooth and linear fashion. Minor setbacks on vaccinations and economic growth are not dispositive. Conversely, the long-term trends toward polarization and gridlock were probably not fundamentally changed in a brief Biden honeymoon. (2) over long periods, optimistic forecasts seem to be more accurate than pessimistic forecasts. Thank goodness.
"Fortunately, however, American technology will probably bail out our fractured society once again. A recent British study found that the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against the fearsome India variant two weeks after the second dose, compared with 93% effectiveness against the now-common British variant."
While I share your positive view on American technology, I have to note that in this case you are talking mostly about German technology. The Pfizer vaccine was developed by German Biotech, Pfizer is more of a manufacturing partner.
Not to mention the fact that the German firm apparently needed an experienced, competent partner to help them with the R/D. Clinical trials are obviously a critical part of drug research, and not all countries are home to organizations capable of carrying out this kind of work, especially when it's new technology. USA got myriad things wrong wrt the pandemic, but drug development is a legitimate source of pride (and gratitude).
>>>But it seems he’s already watering his investment proposals down in a doomed attempt to win Republican support. Why he’s doing this is beyond me; it seems like a repetition of Obama’s mistakes in 2009,<<<
The most obvious possibility is: Biden wants to be credibly seen as really having tried hard to court GOP support, in order to provide Senate Democrats (especially Manchin) political cover for employing reconciliation. ("C'mon, man, we did everything in our power to try compromising with our Republican colleagues.") I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Joe Manchin himself told Biden this was necessary. I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if what gets to Biden's desk has that $500 billion added put back in.
>>>So Biden’s legislative agenda appears to be teetering on the brink of collapse.<<<
I was never under the illusion that major non-reconciliation bills (immigration reform, voting rights, DC statehood, etc) had a snowball's chance of getting enacted, so I'm not really disappointed. But I'm not seeing the "brink of collapse" narrative being reported by the MSM and punditariat with respect to the two reconciliation-friendly bills (although it's entirely possible I've missed this). Democrats have 51 votes, and I expect they'll use them on those two measures. Time will tell.
>>>But especially when it comes to government investment, my sunny outlook has been a bit tempered in the last month.<<<
My outlook is: don't underestimate the Republican Party's intense devotion to the cause of weakening America, and you'll rarely have to engage in "tempering." A half year ago I figured we'd probably have a Democratic president who could only get small ball deals done and acting cabinet heads to serve him because of a GOP Senate majority. Now we've got a fully functioning cabinet, a big relief bill enacted, and a favorable parliamentarian's ruling that probably means several trillion more in helpful spending will be greenlit. Oh, and we've seen an 87% reduction in daily covid deaths since Trump's last week in office. I'm neither a pessimist nor an optimist, but a realist: and reality looks a lot better than it did this time last year.
I think we are right to be concerned about stagflation. We know the areas a supply-side revolution is most needed: notably healthcare and housing costs. And yet, very little is done to help (in housing, i might argue nothing is done). Yes, bottlenecks will eventually pass in durable goods, but we will still be stuck with these large unproductive sectors becoming an ever-larger portion of the consumption basket. We need federal action on zoning laws asap.
I agree that we need supply-side reform on health care and housing to boost growth, but I don't think this can be an approach to controlling inflation!
Well, i first and foremost believe medium/long-term inflation is a function of monetary policy.
But from a policy perspective, i'd simply work backwards from each of our largest cost buckets and try to devise policy to increase supply, reduce frictions, etc. (otherwise known as productivity). The easiest areas to be productive (electronics, durable goods, etc) are becoming smaller expenditures over time. Tons of debate on how much to spend, so little debate on how to be most productive.
Agree on the need to focus on how to be most productive (or allow for).
The issue is that precisely monetarism based economists have disregarded the whole area as out of policy bounds. Meanwhile in Europe, some OCDE countries and even China, have very interesting fiscal experiences plus related research have been mounting for decades.
I would have given a bit more emphasis on why Noah described R&D financing is essential, precisely in this "how to be productive" angle. Which would be helped by following the very public example of NASA by switching from ULA (Lockheed Martin and Boeing), Defense and such entities with exorbitant and languishing long term budgets (and its accompanying delivery delays) by bringing real competence and promoting agile development, as demonstrated by SpaceX and the following troupe. At 2021 this shift has become a national security priority.
A move that at this time voters, investors and the whole world are attentive watching. A very uptime way of focusing on this kind of productivity increase.
Plus elevate as national priority, discussion and thus implement the plethora of studies to reduce bloated bureaucracy like the advisory panel (2015) find that the Pentagon could save $125 Billion in administrative waste by streamlining.
Government and Fiscal focusing and better design is not remotely close to budget reduction, actually demands initial government resources, ideally teamed with Academic research and multidisciplinary participation (hopefully including the wisest international experiences).
Thirdly, and probably the most relevant development critical variable is the promotion of innovation and applied research at the startups and entrepreneurship level. By working at the level Venture Capital does not reach, let alone traditional private investment. There are phenomenally successful international experiences like the European Union 2020 funds, started a decade earlier and its results that have sprouted at several notable localized experiences showing innovation and entrepreneurship metrics that already constitute strong evidence to provide a relevant focus for fiscal policy.
Additionally this promotes US enterprises, and the American Dream at its base, this time mentored and sustained by the support of ecosystems along the country.
Yes, Mark Louis how to be productive has risen to be a crucial government decision, above the how much debate, I would add.
This emphasis is backed by Noah's elsewhere stressed importance of maintaining US technology and innovation, as its main competitive advantage.
Two of the main reasons the USA is slowly decaying:
1. A significant part of the population is either religious fundamentalist or close to it. This is such a taboo in the USA, it's rarely mentioned.
2. Radical left. The short version is that it's like anti-vax just instead of vax it's plenty of other stuff. Just like the religious fundamentalists they lack the ability to think in first principles in order confront complex issues. Instead, the issue is just canceled.
The sad part is that these two feed on each other in a sense.
"A significant part of the population is either religious fundamentalist or close to it. This is such a taboo in the USA, it's rarely mentioned."
What is the taboo part? Mentioning that 25% of the population are something like Biblical literalist? Or being a fundie? Because neither are taboo. Do you know what taboo means?
The biggest reason for pessimism is the deficit running 5-10% GDP faster than growth, and unfounded entitlement spending. Combined with a FED that can’t raise rates to fight the inflation.
The stagflation of the 70’s happened because of seeds planted in the 60’s. It took years to germinate so if you take the long view, Biden will indeed be a transformative president, to our regret.
The thing I'm most pessimistic about is politics. If voting reform doesn't happen I'm afraid that it's possible that the GOP, by abusing it's power at the state level, can monopolize power at the level of the Senate, the House and even the electoral college so even if they consistently loose the popular vote they mantain control. I'm afraid that the future of the US might be something like today's Hungary.
Stephanie Kelton was an adviser to Bernie Sanders in 2016. You would think Biden would have read 'The Deficit Myth' by now...and at least be experimental enough to go full on with Senate 'reconciliation' (a strange term...) to fund a GND which requires millions of workers. Admittedly Krugman and Summers are already bleating about inflation, but that could be nipped in the bud by the necessary level of tax on consumption, with direct compensation payments for low income earners.
That's because mainstream economists shouted "'money printing' will cause hyper-inflation", before they bothered to understand that MMT in fact recognized that the real inflation constraint is resource availability, not money.
We must be reading different Krugmans. (But Summers, yes). What makes you think Biden's not going to go "full on with Senate reconciliation?" AFAIK that's still the plan. Always be careful not to assume the actions politicians are taking are substantive. Often they're for purposes of political messaging. It's possible Biden's economic advisors have been asleep for the last decade. But I doubt it.
I mean we knew all these constraints going in, his agenda can only be as ambitious as Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema and the Senate Parliamentarian allow it to be.
Not to sound harsh, however I don't know why you're confused by Biden Administration's supposed premature attempt at compromising with the GOP. The veneer of compromise is necessary to appease Joe Manchin who suggested he wouldn't support another party line budget reconciliation bill unless a legitimate attempt at bipartisan compromise was made, his party needs Manchin way more than he needs them so what choice did his party have but to engage in the tedious process of bipartisan negotiations no matter how futile? They won't get Manchin's vote any other way.
You’re right, Noah. The biggest political obstacle to your — and all of ours— hopes and dreams is “partisanship.” But that’s not going to be mitigated by Biden’s write off of any attempts at bipartisan legislative packages as you suggest. Good gracious, there are plenty of R’s who would support roads and bridges and airports, etc! However that’s not what the Democratic team, under the pressure of their own set of outliers and pressure groups is willing to limit themselves to. It’s the whole gigantic Christmas tree — or nothing — in these deals. So nothing is what gets done.
I would guess that an objective historian fifty or seventy-five years from now could argue that President Obama’s most significant legacy was advancing the polarization of our country that led to the presidency of Donald Trump. Returning to the Washington politics of seven or eight years ago is the wrong road to take.
This country needs, badly, a big bipartisan legislative accomplishment on something. Extremist ambitions from either the left or the right is not helpful.
Hmmm...do you know what you’re talking about? Are you a Capitol Hill staffer or something comparable? Or is that just your general impression? I think we DO know that politicians, Republicans or Democrats, love to have stuff built in their districts when their constituents don’t have to pay directly for it.
The biggest surprise to me is how dedicated Sinema is to not actually accomplishing anything while in the senate. 49 reliable votes is tough, but I think 48 ties Bidens hands on a lot of things. I don't like to doom about things but I don't know if he has any influence on the senate to change that
Thanks for this post. Hard to read, but just as I thought/think.
My focus has been on the massive nothingburger of a capitol assault prosecution. Half-ish a year with nothing substantive at all. That's your benchmark. I give the good ol' USA a 15% chance to show - something - in the next six mo. Otherwise... New Zealand
I said that the prosecution(s) are, now, nothing burgers.
After 6 mo, no one is in jail. In the link below, one sees that most arrestees are released on their own recognizance. Or, the record of guy X just stops - as in some cases in, EG, Texas.
434 "prosecutions" does sound impressive. However, in my maybe not so humble opinion, 434 is nothing until the average time before the perps get to jail is less than ∞.
Uh, some FIVE HUNDRED insurrectionists have been charged so far. Are you at all familiar with the US systems of justice? Prosecutions take time! I've included a link below where you can look up the alleged traitors in question.
Thanks, Noah. I know Manchin has produced a number of compromise resolutions in order to get republican members on board (at least with Voting Rights; a few others I believe is well). These are not likely to get those 10 votes. Do you think that fact will be enough to convince him bipartisanship is impossible and allow compromises to the filibuster? Or is that more wishful thinking? It's the only way I can see around any of this.
>>>It's the only way I can see around any of this.<<<
The only way I can see "around any of this" is for Democrats to expand their Senate majority in future cycles, maybe if only by a seat or two, and then jettison or eviscerate the filibuster. Manchin isn't the slightest bit concerned about much of the core Democratic agenda, and as long as he's what stands between the filibuster and progress, the filibuster is going to prevail. Senate math looks daunting, I should add, although it's not out of the question Democrats could wind up with 53-54 seats after next year's midterm if the economy booms and all goes well.
Noah, I always appreciate hearing from you and generally I find comfort from your thoughts. But I have absolutely no optimism in the future of the country given the state of its democracy and voting rights.
Afterthought the US system does make it very hard to pass laws, if you compare this to a parliamentary system where it’s typically a four-year dictatorship it does make it more understandable
That thread is pooled data. Unfortunately early data looks like it indicates that AZ is considerably less effective 2 weeks from the 2nd shot. Hopefully its protection improves over the longer term.
Brave and honest self-assessment inherently deserves applause. Two thoughts: (1) long-term trends almost never play out in smooth and linear fashion. Minor setbacks on vaccinations and economic growth are not dispositive. Conversely, the long-term trends toward polarization and gridlock were probably not fundamentally changed in a brief Biden honeymoon. (2) over long periods, optimistic forecasts seem to be more accurate than pessimistic forecasts. Thank goodness.
Yeah!!
"Fortunately, however, American technology will probably bail out our fractured society once again. A recent British study found that the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against the fearsome India variant two weeks after the second dose, compared with 93% effectiveness against the now-common British variant."
While I share your positive view on American technology, I have to note that in this case you are talking mostly about German technology. The Pfizer vaccine was developed by German Biotech, Pfizer is more of a manufacturing partner.
Yes, but the science was done by a scientist working in the U.S.! :-)
Not to mention the fact that the German firm apparently needed an experienced, competent partner to help them with the R/D. Clinical trials are obviously a critical part of drug research, and not all countries are home to organizations capable of carrying out this kind of work, especially when it's new technology. USA got myriad things wrong wrt the pandemic, but drug development is a legitimate source of pride (and gratitude).
>>>But it seems he’s already watering his investment proposals down in a doomed attempt to win Republican support. Why he’s doing this is beyond me; it seems like a repetition of Obama’s mistakes in 2009,<<<
The most obvious possibility is: Biden wants to be credibly seen as really having tried hard to court GOP support, in order to provide Senate Democrats (especially Manchin) political cover for employing reconciliation. ("C'mon, man, we did everything in our power to try compromising with our Republican colleagues.") I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Joe Manchin himself told Biden this was necessary. I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if what gets to Biden's desk has that $500 billion added put back in.
>>>So Biden’s legislative agenda appears to be teetering on the brink of collapse.<<<
I was never under the illusion that major non-reconciliation bills (immigration reform, voting rights, DC statehood, etc) had a snowball's chance of getting enacted, so I'm not really disappointed. But I'm not seeing the "brink of collapse" narrative being reported by the MSM and punditariat with respect to the two reconciliation-friendly bills (although it's entirely possible I've missed this). Democrats have 51 votes, and I expect they'll use them on those two measures. Time will tell.
>>>But especially when it comes to government investment, my sunny outlook has been a bit tempered in the last month.<<<
My outlook is: don't underestimate the Republican Party's intense devotion to the cause of weakening America, and you'll rarely have to engage in "tempering." A half year ago I figured we'd probably have a Democratic president who could only get small ball deals done and acting cabinet heads to serve him because of a GOP Senate majority. Now we've got a fully functioning cabinet, a big relief bill enacted, and a favorable parliamentarian's ruling that probably means several trillion more in helpful spending will be greenlit. Oh, and we've seen an 87% reduction in daily covid deaths since Trump's last week in office. I'm neither a pessimist nor an optimist, but a realist: and reality looks a lot better than it did this time last year.
Hope you're rightabout this!
I think we are right to be concerned about stagflation. We know the areas a supply-side revolution is most needed: notably healthcare and housing costs. And yet, very little is done to help (in housing, i might argue nothing is done). Yes, bottlenecks will eventually pass in durable goods, but we will still be stuck with these large unproductive sectors becoming an ever-larger portion of the consumption basket. We need federal action on zoning laws asap.
I agree that we need supply-side reform on health care and housing to boost growth, but I don't think this can be an approach to controlling inflation!
Well, i first and foremost believe medium/long-term inflation is a function of monetary policy.
But from a policy perspective, i'd simply work backwards from each of our largest cost buckets and try to devise policy to increase supply, reduce frictions, etc. (otherwise known as productivity). The easiest areas to be productive (electronics, durable goods, etc) are becoming smaller expenditures over time. Tons of debate on how much to spend, so little debate on how to be most productive.
Agree on the need to focus on how to be most productive (or allow for).
The issue is that precisely monetarism based economists have disregarded the whole area as out of policy bounds. Meanwhile in Europe, some OCDE countries and even China, have very interesting fiscal experiences plus related research have been mounting for decades.
I would have given a bit more emphasis on why Noah described R&D financing is essential, precisely in this "how to be productive" angle. Which would be helped by following the very public example of NASA by switching from ULA (Lockheed Martin and Boeing), Defense and such entities with exorbitant and languishing long term budgets (and its accompanying delivery delays) by bringing real competence and promoting agile development, as demonstrated by SpaceX and the following troupe. At 2021 this shift has become a national security priority.
A move that at this time voters, investors and the whole world are attentive watching. A very uptime way of focusing on this kind of productivity increase.
* https://spacenews.com/with-ulas-new-rocket-vulcan-behind-schedule-space-force-agrees-to-let-atlas-5-fill-in/
Plus elevate as national priority, discussion and thus implement the plethora of studies to reduce bloated bureaucracy like the advisory panel (2015) find that the Pentagon could save $125 Billion in administrative waste by streamlining.
Government and Fiscal focusing and better design is not remotely close to budget reduction, actually demands initial government resources, ideally teamed with Academic research and multidisciplinary participation (hopefully including the wisest international experiences).
Thirdly, and probably the most relevant development critical variable is the promotion of innovation and applied research at the startups and entrepreneurship level. By working at the level Venture Capital does not reach, let alone traditional private investment. There are phenomenally successful international experiences like the European Union 2020 funds, started a decade earlier and its results that have sprouted at several notable localized experiences showing innovation and entrepreneurship metrics that already constitute strong evidence to provide a relevant focus for fiscal policy.
Additionally this promotes US enterprises, and the American Dream at its base, this time mentored and sustained by the support of ecosystems along the country.
Yes, Mark Louis how to be productive has risen to be a crucial government decision, above the how much debate, I would add.
This emphasis is backed by Noah's elsewhere stressed importance of maintaining US technology and innovation, as its main competitive advantage.
These are all secondary level symptoms.
Two of the main reasons the USA is slowly decaying:
1. A significant part of the population is either religious fundamentalist or close to it. This is such a taboo in the USA, it's rarely mentioned.
2. Radical left. The short version is that it's like anti-vax just instead of vax it's plenty of other stuff. Just like the religious fundamentalists they lack the ability to think in first principles in order confront complex issues. Instead, the issue is just canceled.
The sad part is that these two feed on each other in a sense.
You're definitely more optimistic than I am.
A lot of people like to say that the U.S. is "slowly decaying", and I guess that's possible, but mostly I see evidence for short-term ups and downs.
"A significant part of the population is either religious fundamentalist or close to it. This is such a taboo in the USA, it's rarely mentioned."
What is the taboo part? Mentioning that 25% of the population are something like Biblical literalist? Or being a fundie? Because neither are taboo. Do you know what taboo means?
The biggest reason for pessimism is the deficit running 5-10% GDP faster than growth, and unfounded entitlement spending. Combined with a FED that can’t raise rates to fight the inflation.
The stagflation of the 70’s happened because of seeds planted in the 60’s. It took years to germinate so if you take the long view, Biden will indeed be a transformative president, to our regret.
The thing I'm most pessimistic about is politics. If voting reform doesn't happen I'm afraid that it's possible that the GOP, by abusing it's power at the state level, can monopolize power at the level of the Senate, the House and even the electoral college so even if they consistently loose the popular vote they mantain control. I'm afraid that the future of the US might be something like today's Hungary.
Yes, it's certainly a big worry.
Noah, what do you predict the chances of Republicans stealing a presidential election in 2024?
--Assume Biden is not running (probably Harris is).
Stephanie Kelton was an adviser to Bernie Sanders in 2016. You would think Biden would have read 'The Deficit Myth' by now...and at least be experimental enough to go full on with Senate 'reconciliation' (a strange term...) to fund a GND which requires millions of workers. Admittedly Krugman and Summers are already bleating about inflation, but that could be nipped in the bud by the necessary level of tax on consumption, with direct compensation payments for low income earners.
MMT people spent years drilling into people's heads that the true government "budget constraint" is inflation. People took that to heart. Oops.
That's because mainstream economists shouted "'money printing' will cause hyper-inflation", before they bothered to understand that MMT in fact recognized that the real inflation constraint is resource availability, not money.
We must be reading different Krugmans. (But Summers, yes). What makes you think Biden's not going to go "full on with Senate reconciliation?" AFAIK that's still the plan. Always be careful not to assume the actions politicians are taking are substantive. Often they're for purposes of political messaging. It's possible Biden's economic advisors have been asleep for the last decade. But I doubt it.
Yes, Krugman has been very much opposed to Summers on inflation lately.
I mean we knew all these constraints going in, his agenda can only be as ambitious as Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema and the Senate Parliamentarian allow it to be.
Not to sound harsh, however I don't know why you're confused by Biden Administration's supposed premature attempt at compromising with the GOP. The veneer of compromise is necessary to appease Joe Manchin who suggested he wouldn't support another party line budget reconciliation bill unless a legitimate attempt at bipartisan compromise was made, his party needs Manchin way more than he needs them so what choice did his party have but to engage in the tedious process of bipartisan negotiations no matter how futile? They won't get Manchin's vote any other way.
You’re right, Noah. The biggest political obstacle to your — and all of ours— hopes and dreams is “partisanship.” But that’s not going to be mitigated by Biden’s write off of any attempts at bipartisan legislative packages as you suggest. Good gracious, there are plenty of R’s who would support roads and bridges and airports, etc! However that’s not what the Democratic team, under the pressure of their own set of outliers and pressure groups is willing to limit themselves to. It’s the whole gigantic Christmas tree — or nothing — in these deals. So nothing is what gets done.
I would guess that an objective historian fifty or seventy-five years from now could argue that President Obama’s most significant legacy was advancing the polarization of our country that led to the presidency of Donald Trump. Returning to the Washington politics of seven or eight years ago is the wrong road to take.
This country needs, badly, a big bipartisan legislative accomplishment on something. Extremist ambitions from either the left or the right is not helpful.
Hmmm...do you know what you’re talking about? Are you a Capitol Hill staffer or something comparable? Or is that just your general impression? I think we DO know that politicians, Republicans or Democrats, love to have stuff built in their districts when their constituents don’t have to pay directly for it.
The biggest surprise to me is how dedicated Sinema is to not actually accomplishing anything while in the senate. 49 reliable votes is tough, but I think 48 ties Bidens hands on a lot of things. I don't like to doom about things but I don't know if he has any influence on the senate to change that
Thanks for this post. Hard to read, but just as I thought/think.
My focus has been on the massive nothingburger of a capitol assault prosecution. Half-ish a year with nothing substantive at all. That's your benchmark. I give the good ol' USA a 15% chance to show - something - in the next six mo. Otherwise... New Zealand
Who has not been prosecuted that you wanted to be prosecuted? Trump??
I said that the prosecution(s) are, now, nothing burgers.
After 6 mo, no one is in jail. In the link below, one sees that most arrestees are released on their own recognizance. Or, the record of guy X just stops - as in some cases in, EG, Texas.
434 "prosecutions" does sound impressive. However, in my maybe not so humble opinion, 434 is nothing until the average time before the perps get to jail is less than ∞.
Thanks!
https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/capitol-breach-cases
Uh, some FIVE HUNDRED insurrectionists have been charged so far. Are you at all familiar with the US systems of justice? Prosecutions take time! I've included a link below where you can look up the alleged traitors in question.
https://www.insider.com/all-the-us-capitol-pro-trump-riot-arrests-charges-names-2021-1
Jasper is right. There is no way to prioritize anything especially in regards to breaching the US Congress.
vehemently disagree. this aint some random guys who ran some red lights.
Thanks, Noah. I know Manchin has produced a number of compromise resolutions in order to get republican members on board (at least with Voting Rights; a few others I believe is well). These are not likely to get those 10 votes. Do you think that fact will be enough to convince him bipartisanship is impossible and allow compromises to the filibuster? Or is that more wishful thinking? It's the only way I can see around any of this.
Well, I hope he does that!
>>>It's the only way I can see around any of this.<<<
The only way I can see "around any of this" is for Democrats to expand their Senate majority in future cycles, maybe if only by a seat or two, and then jettison or eviscerate the filibuster. Manchin isn't the slightest bit concerned about much of the core Democratic agenda, and as long as he's what stands between the filibuster and progress, the filibuster is going to prevail. Senate math looks daunting, I should add, although it's not out of the question Democrats could wind up with 53-54 seats after next year's midterm if the economy booms and all goes well.
Noah, I always appreciate hearing from you and generally I find comfort from your thoughts. But I have absolutely no optimism in the future of the country given the state of its democracy and voting rights.
Yes my feeling exactly the Dems seem all too willing to cave at the first sign of pressure
Afterthought the US system does make it very hard to pass laws, if you compare this to a parliamentary system where it’s typically a four-year dictatorship it does make it more understandable
Both AstraZeneca and Pfizer are highly effective against B.1617.2 after two doses https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1396015144233222144.html?utm_source=subscriptions_mailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily
That thread is pooled data. Unfortunately early data looks like it indicates that AZ is considerably less effective 2 weeks from the 2nd shot. Hopefully its protection improves over the longer term.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1396015144233222144?s=19