Thank you for writing this up Noah! Been thinking about this for the last 2 years! My wife is Indonesian and now green card holder :) and I’ve been telling her that for whatever reason Indo-US relations don’t ever get acknowledged in the geopolitical media I consume but glad it’s finally getting some traction. To me having a relationship with Indonesia is a natural one, since so many Indonesian’s who study abroad either go to Europe (mainly Netherlands) or to the USA. The Indonesian government even has a scholarship program where they will fully pay for their most talented students to get training in the US (https://lpdp.kemenkeu.go.id/en/beasiswa/umum/beasiswa-ptud-2023). The university’s as you’ll see almost all are western (mainly US based). If we want a stronger relationship with Indonesia it almost seems like it’s up to us whether or not we want to be close friends. Terima Kasih!
Its not just the US that appears to be blind to Indonesia - much of Europe (perhaps with the exception of the Netherlands, considering their history) is as well! As a 'swing state' - and one which is rather susceptible to Chinese influence - we continue this blindness at our peril.
And current technologies are modern until they become obsolete. It doesn’t make them strategically less important until the time at which something new is known.
I get your point. These are usually the lowest cost to access reserves. I just have some qualms about how folks act like currently known deposits are all there are (peak oil folks and degrowthers mainly make this assertions.)
Oh yes, we aren’t even constrained to resources we currently use because we could invent new things to do with other sorts of resources.
But this particular deposit is already US controlled and does play heavily into regional geopolitics and US strategy, thus worth noting in an article concerning US/Indo relations.
We invaded Iraq because Bush and Tillerson are the only Texans that couldn’t find oil and gas under Texas. Although Bush/Tillerson get a little credit for Qatar that was enriched using windfall profits from American consumers.
I've been visiting Indonesia regularly since the early '90s. There is a pretty big talent deficit down there. Some of the local Chinese families have a switched-on overseas educated son or daughter. Otherwise, the cognitively demanding jobs mostly go to Aussie, Indian or Singaporean expats. So I wouldn't expect complex manufacturing like semiconductors to suddenly take off.
Per Noah, America could bribe Indonesia with cheap financing and subsidised trade and investment, but then China would ramp up its own efforts. The U.S. ends up in an arms race that China is much better equipped to win, while exacerbating Indonesia's breathtaking corruption--a local art form.
America should instead negotiate from a position of strength. What is Indonesia willing to offer up in order to get firmly under the U.S. security umbrella? Naval bases near those straits would be nice. Some of those bribes could be thrown in as a deal closer.
Malaysia has done OK at low to mid complexity assembly and manufacturing (including semis) with a not too dissimilar mix (educated Chinese small businesspeople and entrepreneurs alongside local potentates in nat resources and govt-supported industries). Of course, while Malaysia legally discriminates against ethnic Chinese, actual anti-Chinese pogroms happened more recently in Indonesia (‘97) and Jakarta doesn’t compare favorably to KL or Penang for your average expat senior manager.
Yes good piece about the largest most invisible, strategically placed nation on earth! However should not go overboard on how fundamentally moderate Indonesian Islam is! Last year Muslim faction ran the first ever Christian governor out of office on grounds of blasphemy! Historical Anti chinese sentiment should not be overlooked either! Nor should unity be taken for granted! 17000 island 300+ethnicities and 200+ languages make maintaining stability and unity requires constant gardening! All the more reason for partnering with U.S. for external security
This is a great contribution to US foreign policy thinking, thanks for writing it! As sad and scary as Cold War II is, there's room to hope that it will spur an increase in effective US development aid, as we seek to shore up systems of strong alliances and contain the influence of a Russia and China. We should struggle to win the moral high ground globally, and this is a great example of how to do that!
The problem is US can't provide good trade deals to Indonesia because of Chinese investment. For example the nickel export for EV battery factories in US can't get preferential IRA tariffs because it's seen as Chinese.
So long as there are regional rebellions in Indonesia, the military will probably continue treating civilians in a way that makes many Americans uncomfortable. For this reason, the Indonesian security establishment most likely worries that US sanctions will be reinstated.
2. Indonesia favors the Palestinians, while the US favors Israel.
Is rapprochement with Indonesia more important to US policy-makers than signalling support for human rights, supporting Israel, promoting rules-based trading, discouraging coal-fired energy, and enforcing effective sanctions on Russia?
This rather underscored the terrible mistake Hillary made in caving in the Left in abandoning the TPP. It meant that TRUMP paid no political price for abandoning it.
Apparently he can still speak it somewhat even though he left Indonesia at age 10. He's not fluent but can hold a conversation. His (half) sister is fluent, though.
Last time I checked, Indonesia was a democracy but a Muslim one. The "values" the US promotes these days are at the exact opposite of what a Muslim nation wants to see being promoted in its country. They don't need to have fundamentalists take a foothold in politics because, hey Indonesia would b e better off following in the footsteps of the US. And comparing the Philippines to Indonesia shows how little you know about the region and the various cultures. Trust me, I have only lived in Asia for the past 17 years...
Problem is: wherever you go, you push for changes of this, changes of that etc like the US had some morale authority to tell others what to do... I tell you, Indonesia will play its cards to benefit with China, Russia and the US. There is enough capital running after their infrastructure projects that they can pick and choose these days...
Don't worry, Indonesia won't ignore the US. Especially how it allowed Suharto to kill 1 million innocent people in the 60s and how it also pulled the rug from under its feet, sending the economy in disarray faster in 98. Countries are truly blessed to count the US as their "friend" 😂
Not that Indonesia isn't as important as you have written but shouldn't our emphasis be on reshoring? Isn't foreign manufacturing what got us into this tenuous service economy where the middle class shrank and wages have generally stagnated since the 1980s while creating a wealthy class that manipulated and corrupts the US to it's advantage?
Reshoring is not feasible in the US, labor and regulatory costs make it economically infeasible, plus Americans aren’t willing to do those jobs.
Better to diversify with non-China partners who are capable of producing right away along existing trade lines. Will help neutralize any single country from controlling the supply chain.
Hey Tom while I do agree with your first point about the economics of "reshoring", I do want to push back on your second point that Americans aren't willing to do those jobs. I feel as if this has become a little to "embedded" into the common psyche and would be better said that Americans aren't afraid of doing tenious or hard-working jobs they are simply looking for a good paying job with adequate benefits to support themselves and families.
Ever since the Keating era, Labor PMs in Australia have made Indonesia a key part of Australia’s foreign policy (which has been tough at times given the Party’s embrace of the East Timorese cause since the 70s) and have made it a priority where possible to make Jakarta their first trip as PM (I believe Albanese was unable too due to an APEC or Quad summit already on the books (unfortunate given Albo has a particularly strong save well known embrace of the Timorese cause and longtime personal friendship with Gusmao, Horta and other hero’s of the Timorese independence struggle
Keating was the key driver of Australia prioritising Indonesia and when Keating turned APEC from a economic to a leaders forum it was the Japanese PM who said ‘you’ll need to get Suharto on board to make this work”
Good to see the US finally catching up with what Australia has been preaching since the 90s that the 210 million people strong majority Muslim nation in the world economies fastest growing region, one with a history in leadership in the non-aligned movement makes for an important diplomatic partner
Thank you for writing this up Noah! Been thinking about this for the last 2 years! My wife is Indonesian and now green card holder :) and I’ve been telling her that for whatever reason Indo-US relations don’t ever get acknowledged in the geopolitical media I consume but glad it’s finally getting some traction. To me having a relationship with Indonesia is a natural one, since so many Indonesian’s who study abroad either go to Europe (mainly Netherlands) or to the USA. The Indonesian government even has a scholarship program where they will fully pay for their most talented students to get training in the US (https://lpdp.kemenkeu.go.id/en/beasiswa/umum/beasiswa-ptud-2023). The university’s as you’ll see almost all are western (mainly US based). If we want a stronger relationship with Indonesia it almost seems like it’s up to us whether or not we want to be close friends. Terima Kasih!
Its not just the US that appears to be blind to Indonesia - much of Europe (perhaps with the exception of the Netherlands, considering their history) is as well! As a 'swing state' - and one which is rather susceptible to Chinese influence - we continue this blindness at our peril.
Very critically, the country has the largest nickel mine in the world and sizable uranium and thorium deposits
I always take these comments as “known and surveyed” deposits.
And current technologies are modern until they become obsolete. It doesn’t make them strategically less important until the time at which something new is known.
I get your point. These are usually the lowest cost to access reserves. I just have some qualms about how folks act like currently known deposits are all there are (peak oil folks and degrowthers mainly make this assertions.)
Oh yes, we aren’t even constrained to resources we currently use because we could invent new things to do with other sorts of resources.
But this particular deposit is already US controlled and does play heavily into regional geopolitics and US strategy, thus worth noting in an article concerning US/Indo relations.
We invaded Iraq because Bush and Tillerson are the only Texans that couldn’t find oil and gas under Texas. Although Bush/Tillerson get a little credit for Qatar that was enriched using windfall profits from American consumers.
I've been visiting Indonesia regularly since the early '90s. There is a pretty big talent deficit down there. Some of the local Chinese families have a switched-on overseas educated son or daughter. Otherwise, the cognitively demanding jobs mostly go to Aussie, Indian or Singaporean expats. So I wouldn't expect complex manufacturing like semiconductors to suddenly take off.
Per Noah, America could bribe Indonesia with cheap financing and subsidised trade and investment, but then China would ramp up its own efforts. The U.S. ends up in an arms race that China is much better equipped to win, while exacerbating Indonesia's breathtaking corruption--a local art form.
America should instead negotiate from a position of strength. What is Indonesia willing to offer up in order to get firmly under the U.S. security umbrella? Naval bases near those straits would be nice. Some of those bribes could be thrown in as a deal closer.
Malaysia has done OK at low to mid complexity assembly and manufacturing (including semis) with a not too dissimilar mix (educated Chinese small businesspeople and entrepreneurs alongside local potentates in nat resources and govt-supported industries). Of course, while Malaysia legally discriminates against ethnic Chinese, actual anti-Chinese pogroms happened more recently in Indonesia (‘97) and Jakarta doesn’t compare favorably to KL or Penang for your average expat senior manager.
Open comments to non-subscribers and this place becomes like the local news comments section.
IDK these comments seem generally pretty good!
Guy just replied with the “Bush invaded Iraq 4 oil” trope to my comment on minerals. I will assume they got better throughout the day.
Yes good piece about the largest most invisible, strategically placed nation on earth! However should not go overboard on how fundamentally moderate Indonesian Islam is! Last year Muslim faction ran the first ever Christian governor out of office on grounds of blasphemy! Historical Anti chinese sentiment should not be overlooked either! Nor should unity be taken for granted! 17000 island 300+ethnicities and 200+ languages make maintaining stability and unity requires constant gardening! All the more reason for partnering with U.S. for external security
!
Tom Raquer
This is a great contribution to US foreign policy thinking, thanks for writing it! As sad and scary as Cold War II is, there's room to hope that it will spur an increase in effective US development aid, as we seek to shore up systems of strong alliances and contain the influence of a Russia and China. We should struggle to win the moral high ground globally, and this is a great example of how to do that!
The problem is US can't provide good trade deals to Indonesia because of Chinese investment. For example the nickel export for EV battery factories in US can't get preferential IRA tariffs because it's seen as Chinese.
Noah focuses on US economic neglect of Indonesia. There have also been US decisions that are actively alienating:
1. In response to the Indonesian military's treatment of civilians ('human rights violations'), the US did the following:
-maintained an arms embargo until 2005 (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2005/11/23/us-blasted-for-selling-indonesia-arms)
-refused contact with the army's special forces until 2010, and didn't train with them until 2019 (https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/indonesia-militants-05302019174708.html)
-denied General Prabowo Subianto - the defense minister, who has a good chance of being Indonesia's next president - a visa until 2020 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-indonesia-military/pentagon-prepares-to-welcome-once-banned-indonesian-minister-despite-rights-concerns-idUSKBN2700HI/)
So long as there are regional rebellions in Indonesia, the military will probably continue treating civilians in a way that makes many Americans uncomfortable. For this reason, the Indonesian security establishment most likely worries that US sanctions will be reinstated.
2. Indonesia favors the Palestinians, while the US favors Israel.
3. Indonesia plans to use coal until 2056 - or, in exchange for a lot of grants from developed countries, only until 2040 (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-could-phase-out-coal-by-2040-with-financial-help-minister-2021-11-02/). A problem for Democratic US administrations.
4. At least one WTO dispute. A minor hurdle for friend-shoring? (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-usa-wto-idUSKBN1KS0HQ/)
5. Possibility of US sanctions on Russia affecting Indonesia, which sometimes buys military equipment from Russia (https://asialink.unimelb.edu.au/asialink-dialogues-and-applied-research/commentary-and-analysis/russia-sanctions-putting-strain-on-us-relationship-with-indonesia).
Is rapprochement with Indonesia more important to US policy-makers than signalling support for human rights, supporting Israel, promoting rules-based trading, discouraging coal-fired energy, and enforcing effective sanctions on Russia?
This rather underscored the terrible mistake Hillary made in caving in the Left in abandoning the TPP. It meant that TRUMP paid no political price for abandoning it.
And, of course, we must convince Obama to become US ambassador to Indonesia.
That might not be a bad idea. Does he speak Bahasa Indonesia?
Apparently he can still speak it somewhat even though he left Indonesia at age 10. He's not fluent but can hold a conversation. His (half) sister is fluent, though.
Last time I checked, Indonesia was a democracy but a Muslim one. The "values" the US promotes these days are at the exact opposite of what a Muslim nation wants to see being promoted in its country. They don't need to have fundamentalists take a foothold in politics because, hey Indonesia would b e better off following in the footsteps of the US. And comparing the Philippines to Indonesia shows how little you know about the region and the various cultures. Trust me, I have only lived in Asia for the past 17 years...
Half of the US aligns closer to moderate Muslim values than to the other halves values.
True, but that half of the US has basically zero influence on what the US govt and media tries to push on other countries, culturally.
Problem is: wherever you go, you push for changes of this, changes of that etc like the US had some morale authority to tell others what to do... I tell you, Indonesia will play its cards to benefit with China, Russia and the US. There is enough capital running after their infrastructure projects that they can pick and choose these days...
Don't worry, Indonesia won't ignore the US. Especially how it allowed Suharto to kill 1 million innocent people in the 60s and how it also pulled the rug from under its feet, sending the economy in disarray faster in 98. Countries are truly blessed to count the US as their "friend" 😂
Not that Indonesia isn't as important as you have written but shouldn't our emphasis be on reshoring? Isn't foreign manufacturing what got us into this tenuous service economy where the middle class shrank and wages have generally stagnated since the 1980s while creating a wealthy class that manipulated and corrupts the US to it's advantage?
Reshoring is not feasible in the US, labor and regulatory costs make it economically infeasible, plus Americans aren’t willing to do those jobs.
Better to diversify with non-China partners who are capable of producing right away along existing trade lines. Will help neutralize any single country from controlling the supply chain.
Hey Tom while I do agree with your first point about the economics of "reshoring", I do want to push back on your second point that Americans aren't willing to do those jobs. I feel as if this has become a little to "embedded" into the common psyche and would be better said that Americans aren't afraid of doing tenious or hard-working jobs they are simply looking for a good paying job with adequate benefits to support themselves and families.
No, it was chronic fiscal deficits that did that.
Ever since the Keating era, Labor PMs in Australia have made Indonesia a key part of Australia’s foreign policy (which has been tough at times given the Party’s embrace of the East Timorese cause since the 70s) and have made it a priority where possible to make Jakarta their first trip as PM (I believe Albanese was unable too due to an APEC or Quad summit already on the books (unfortunate given Albo has a particularly strong save well known embrace of the Timorese cause and longtime personal friendship with Gusmao, Horta and other hero’s of the Timorese independence struggle
Keating was the key driver of Australia prioritising Indonesia and when Keating turned APEC from a economic to a leaders forum it was the Japanese PM who said ‘you’ll need to get Suharto on board to make this work”
Good to see the US finally catching up with what Australia has been preaching since the 90s that the 210 million people strong majority Muslim nation in the world economies fastest growing region, one with a history in leadership in the non-aligned movement makes for an important diplomatic partner
Do you think the half-hearted US efforts concerning Indonesia has anything to do with the fact that the latter is an Islamic country?