One day I would like to see you game out a Universal Healthcare Insurance. Would it be mandatory, or would it cover a minimum thus having employers providing extra benefits. How would you convince people to go for it? Lots of people like their private insurance. Or maybe just a plan that covers people without it... would there be income limits? costs based on income?
Anyway,. besides the point. Unlike most of twitter, i am not outraged over the 600.... I didnt even get the 1200.... long story, but military retirement counts against you (did you know that if you have a military pension and get laid off, you get zero UI benefits... even though we pay in)
Its the 300 plus up to UI that is the key aspect. Having had a wife and daughter on UI this year, 600 was a little too generous... I think 300 is the right amount I think. Yes, some of you will disagree, Im talking about my perspective. Both wife and daughter got a raise being on UI.
It was a lot bigger and more generous that I expected with a Republican senate, but thats a good thing.
I have mixed feelings about the workfare issue. I am a natural conservative who believes that work gives people purpose and we should incentive it as much as possible, but Im also a big softie who doesnt want to see people suffer.
My ex-wife is English and I lived there for a four years. My son lives there. Living off the dole was a thing... in fact my ex-wife was basically raised on the dole. Im not sure if there was any change in the last decade, but it certainly made we wary of the system.
Having also lived in Germany and Holland, I do see the advantages of getting it right. Holland especially impressed me as squared away system.
Im actually coming around to UBI... I have questions... devils advocate type, but I am certainly interested.
Hopefully this vaccine will get things going pretty quickly, and we can get back to robust employment.
Also... tax the rich. The rich being anyone making more than me by 100K.
Im mostly interested in how we transition. I lived in Holland... their system is great. The issue I see it is convincing those with great insurance to take a risk for something that might not be as good. How do you convince those people.
National Health Insurance, or more specifically what you think is the most likely scenario in a best case. Im assuming you don't think we would go to a fully nationalized system like the UK. Game it out... good and bad.
Yep, will do. The short answer here is that we extend Medicare to cover everyone. Medicare doesn't cover everything so there's still a role for private insurance, so the industry doesn't disappear. And we also allow rich people to purchase health care out of pocket if they want, as long as they still pay their taxes to support the Medicare system -- kind of like private school. Rich people will splurge for new and innovative treatments, which will keep innovation going. And the Medicare system will bargain down costs for everyone else, so our health care stops being so expensive.
How big of an impact would transparent pricing have? My instincts keep telling me that pricing in healthcare is so messed up that forcing providers to quote accurate, transparent prices would have a large effect, but I'm not a health economist so idk?
Are there any surveys on how much of the pandemic related saving some households have done will be spent next year? Will the money saved not commuting and not consuming recreation in 2020 will come back in significant excess of what would have already been spent in 2021?
This is a perfect complement to your post about tech-induced social unrest.
Will it be impossible to avoid protests if misinformation runs faster than truth?
I'm curious about the idea that stimulus is what we do after everyone is working again.
Do you think that deficit spending should continue until the economy has recovered its 2019 GDP? Or until unemployment has gone back to 3%?
What about countries with an already sizeable debt service as a percentage of GDP and interest payments greater than the growth rate?
I personally think that as long as the Fed doesn't increase rates, countries should take up debt and use it to boost growth through investment in physical capital, human capital, etc..
I plan on writing a lot about this. Short answer: There's a lot of stuff we need to spend on anyway, especially the green energy transition, and we can frontload it as stimulus in late 2021 and 2022.
In the US, we would rather be allowed to judge who is worthy of aid, even if it means the aid distribution becomes massively inefficient. I have always found the criticism of UBI coming from the left to be odd. The same people who argue that UBI will just go straight to landlord pockets argue on the same day that higher minimum wages wont. As though landlords care if you got money from wages or from the govt'
Thusly, it does not surprise me at all that in the one time people generally reach consensus that something approaching a (paltry) UBI - it would be sufficiently remarkable that it would become the one thing people focus on.
There are something like 80 million Americans under the age of 19 - almost all are definitely not getting stimulus checks.
As for "median wages rising" - that's because low paid jobs have been murdered by lockdowns, particularly retail.
PPP: the problem with PPP isn't that some big businesses got it. That's corruption. The problem with PPP is that it reinforced the winners but did nothing to help the losers (businesses).
Does PPP help restaurants in cities that have locked down? No, it just stretches out the period where they haven't yet failed - which is bad because SF has had severe restrictions from the start and have now gone even further (no more outdoor dining at all allowed. Indoor for a short window with greatly reduced capacity).
What PPP ultimately did was cause failing business owners to lose more money but businesses that benefited - trucking for example - to reap windfalls. This isn't anecdote - I know several accountants who reported this to me.
As for stimulus and/or UI amounts: $15/hour is a munificent $30K a year. How easy is it to live in San Francisco on $30K a year?
On the other hand: if you live in Northern California or other "red" regions/states, the cost of living is enormously lower. $15/hour can be quite respectable in Wichita, Kansas where the median rent is $600/month...
One day I would like to see you game out a Universal Healthcare Insurance. Would it be mandatory, or would it cover a minimum thus having employers providing extra benefits. How would you convince people to go for it? Lots of people like their private insurance. Or maybe just a plan that covers people without it... would there be income limits? costs based on income?
Anyway,. besides the point. Unlike most of twitter, i am not outraged over the 600.... I didnt even get the 1200.... long story, but military retirement counts against you (did you know that if you have a military pension and get laid off, you get zero UI benefits... even though we pay in)
Its the 300 plus up to UI that is the key aspect. Having had a wife and daughter on UI this year, 600 was a little too generous... I think 300 is the right amount I think. Yes, some of you will disagree, Im talking about my perspective. Both wife and daughter got a raise being on UI.
It was a lot bigger and more generous that I expected with a Republican senate, but thats a good thing.
I have mixed feelings about the workfare issue. I am a natural conservative who believes that work gives people purpose and we should incentive it as much as possible, but Im also a big softie who doesnt want to see people suffer.
My ex-wife is English and I lived there for a four years. My son lives there. Living off the dole was a thing... in fact my ex-wife was basically raised on the dole. Im not sure if there was any change in the last decade, but it certainly made we wary of the system.
Having also lived in Germany and Holland, I do see the advantages of getting it right. Holland especially impressed me as squared away system.
Im actually coming around to UBI... I have questions... devils advocate type, but I am certainly interested.
Hopefully this vaccine will get things going pretty quickly, and we can get back to robust employment.
Also... tax the rich. The rich being anyone making more than me by 100K.
Would you like to see me write about national health care (British NHS) or national health insurance (most other countries)?
Im mostly interested in how we transition. I lived in Holland... their system is great. The issue I see it is convincing those with great insurance to take a risk for something that might not be as good. How do you convince those people.
National Health Insurance, or more specifically what you think is the most likely scenario in a best case. Im assuming you don't think we would go to a fully nationalized system like the UK. Game it out... good and bad.
Yep, will do. The short answer here is that we extend Medicare to cover everyone. Medicare doesn't cover everything so there's still a role for private insurance, so the industry doesn't disappear. And we also allow rich people to purchase health care out of pocket if they want, as long as they still pay their taxes to support the Medicare system -- kind of like private school. Rich people will splurge for new and innovative treatments, which will keep innovation going. And the Medicare system will bargain down costs for everyone else, so our health care stops being so expensive.
How big of an impact would transparent pricing have? My instincts keep telling me that pricing in healthcare is so messed up that forcing providers to quote accurate, transparent prices would have a large effect, but I'm not a health economist so idk?
Well, people don't shop around for better prices, so transparent pricing mainly controls costs by convincing people not to go to the doctor...
One thing:
- Good post. I learned a lot!
Are there any surveys on how much of the pandemic related saving some households have done will be spent next year? Will the money saved not commuting and not consuming recreation in 2020 will come back in significant excess of what would have already been spent in 2021?
I don't think surveys are very good at predicting this. I'm not sure people themselves know!
This is a perfect complement to your post about tech-induced social unrest.
Will it be impossible to avoid protests if misinformation runs faster than truth?
I'm curious about the idea that stimulus is what we do after everyone is working again.
Do you think that deficit spending should continue until the economy has recovered its 2019 GDP? Or until unemployment has gone back to 3%?
What about countries with an already sizeable debt service as a percentage of GDP and interest payments greater than the growth rate?
I personally think that as long as the Fed doesn't increase rates, countries should take up debt and use it to boost growth through investment in physical capital, human capital, etc..
I plan on writing a lot about this. Short answer: There's a lot of stuff we need to spend on anyway, especially the green energy transition, and we can frontload it as stimulus in late 2021 and 2022.
Wonderful, looking forward to it!
In the US, we would rather be allowed to judge who is worthy of aid, even if it means the aid distribution becomes massively inefficient. I have always found the criticism of UBI coming from the left to be odd. The same people who argue that UBI will just go straight to landlord pockets argue on the same day that higher minimum wages wont. As though landlords care if you got money from wages or from the govt'
Thusly, it does not surprise me at all that in the one time people generally reach consensus that something approaching a (paltry) UBI - it would be sufficiently remarkable that it would become the one thing people focus on.
There are something like 80 million Americans under the age of 19 - almost all are definitely not getting stimulus checks.
As for "median wages rising" - that's because low paid jobs have been murdered by lockdowns, particularly retail.
PPP: the problem with PPP isn't that some big businesses got it. That's corruption. The problem with PPP is that it reinforced the winners but did nothing to help the losers (businesses).
Does PPP help restaurants in cities that have locked down? No, it just stretches out the period where they haven't yet failed - which is bad because SF has had severe restrictions from the start and have now gone even further (no more outdoor dining at all allowed. Indoor for a short window with greatly reduced capacity).
What PPP ultimately did was cause failing business owners to lose more money but businesses that benefited - trucking for example - to reap windfalls. This isn't anecdote - I know several accountants who reported this to me.
As for stimulus and/or UI amounts: $15/hour is a munificent $30K a year. How easy is it to live in San Francisco on $30K a year?
On the other hand: if you live in Northern California or other "red" regions/states, the cost of living is enormously lower. $15/hour can be quite respectable in Wichita, Kansas where the median rent is $600/month...