The basic thesis of the piece is that she will govern as a fairly moderate person, despite the rhetoric.
Noah Smith has been beating the "recognize the China threat" drum for a while. Takaichi says the right things.
You know who also rhetorically recognized the China threat?
Trump.
I think Noah Smith will concede that Trump has been terrible about actually preparing the US to resist China.
I would like to see Noah Smith, in the here and now, write what it would take from Takaichi for him to say, "Actually, her critics were/are right."
What if she just becomes another Edrogan or Orban?
What if she, like Trump, fails to maintain Japan's generally good international reputation and starts talking up East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere? (It would be very easy to shift from "We need to be prepared to oppose the PRC now" to "...And Japan's mistake was not doing enough to crush them in 1937." That would alienate the Koreans as well as the rest of Southeast Asia super quickly.
I really hope that the hope in this piece is borne out, but I see so many obvious failure states that this piece kind of papers over.
Dogen has a pretty good YouTube video about how Takaichi and her cabinet have softened their anti immigrant rhetoric greatly after she became PM; she is from a political background and hasn’t said or done insane or inappropriate things like Trump has; and I haven’t seen any behavior from her that leads me to believe that she is trying to subvert the Japanese political system, so I am not particularly worried about her becoming like Erdogan or Orban.
What if...? You can put anything in a what if, but that doesn't make it a valid point. Where is your evidence that she is going to do any of these things.
The history of other right wing populists? Some of the stuff she personally has said?
I am not saying that this will happen. I am saying that this is disturbingly common for leaders who take her rhetorical position.
I feel like Noah Smith wrote a post talking about Roulette and how we are going to win so much money on red without mentioning that there is also a large chance it lands on black and we lose everything.
What are some examples of right wing statements she has made that are anywhere as repellent as what Trump says daily?
Her anti immigrant statements were basically complaints about rowdy tourists (not immigrants) kicking sacred deer in Nara (her home province) or swinging from Torii gates at temples. And also maybe the rules about letting tourists buy housing and get free state health insurance for them and their members.
The comments she has made about Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet are only controversial if you’re a PRC apologist.
The only strong right wing thing she has said was that her visiting Yasukuni shrine to the war dead (which includes war criminals) was okay because of freedom of religion and that other countries (China and Korea) shouldn’t have an opinion on it.
What people say is massively less important than what they do. Takaichi hasn’t done anything resembling the insanity we’re getting from Trump.
Also, Trump’s badness is not a product of recognizing the Chinese threat, it’s a product of a whole host of bad takes on other topics, paired with pathological selfishness. I don’t think this is a fair comparison.
Pretty good, but not as good as Senri Kawaguchi who is amazing, but much younger and a professional musician (since middle school) and not a politician.
Enjoyed the read, Noah. While China and others may frame this as a rise in Japanese nationalism and militarization, I think your piece makes a good case that Japan’s democratic system is responding to real pressures and pragmatic realities—demographics, security risks, and a less predictable U.S. Seems totally reasonable for a state to act in its own interests in these regards.
Was waiting for this one. Love the Japan-related posts!
Remark on interest cost: while high public debt is definitely a challenge for rearmament, but the rise in interest cost sometimes gets overblown: effective nominal interest rate, so what the gov actually pays, is expected to only be 1pp higher by 2033 than the recent lows. That's way smaller increase than inflation alone. So in real terms interest cost declined, even given the rise in interest rates pointed out in post!
I have nearly zero credence that the reason the LDP stays in power is because the LDP politicians of Japan are uniquely talented (the world over!) in changing their propositions based on what the people want.
Yes, the British Conservative Party is famous for doing this (at least until like 2010) and yet there is healthy alternation between them and Labour (and before them, the Liberals) in power.
I'm far from an expert on Japan, but culturally they do seem to value unity, collective thinking and stability a LOT. So it doesn't strike me as too far fetched that the incumbent party manages to mostly stay in power so long as they adapt to current sentiments. I don't think it's the 'skill' of their politicians per se.
Until recently, another reason why Japan has managed to diversify politics while remaining a single-party state is habatsu (派閥), or factionalism. The LDP acted like a coalition party with multiple factions that seem to hate each other as much as other parties. Some factions are ultra-conservative (e.g., the Abe faction, of which the current PM used to be a member) while others are centrist (e.g., the Kochikai/Kishida faction, to which former PM Kishida belonged). They all have their distinct flavors and policy preferences. Most factions were officially abolished, though it remains to be seen if the cliquish Japanese politicians will just form more informal caucuses.
On the defense industry, Japan has a problem with scale. The small orders of bespoke systems from the JSDF make Japanese gear both exquisite and expensive. Other major manufacturers try to subsidize their domestic programs through exports, but Japan is entirely inexperienced in this area. Tokyo is making small strides, though I wonder if the public will support Japan following the ROK towards an export-led model.
Perhaps Noah know and chose not to write about it, but the biggest reason the LDP keeps winning is simply that the opposition parties, especially the left wing, are too weak. This explains almost everything about post-war Japanese politics.
I want Japan to do well, but I am also unsure if her simple answers to complex problems are the right way to politik. Her support of industries is good though, we shall see... Giving people what they want may make you stay in power but it doesn't always indicate good leadership, governance or long term structural advantages to your populace. That said, not all of her policy ideas are bad, they are overdue on some tech spending, greenfield and FDI, defense spending will be good overall. But I've yet to see a real policy related to tackling energy costs and being less dependent on the imports for that from her.
Good on Japan and South Korea for working together and leaving some of the past behind. A united Asia is a good Asia to balance China, it'll be good to see if they can also partner with India and Australia as well.
Interesting constitutional tidbit. The Japanese constitution was clearly written in English and translated to Japanese (the wording in places). It had many parts that were unpopular with most of the political powers in the country when implemented.
Yet to date, not a single amendment has been passed to change it.
I think Canada will face the same problem as Japan if they are to become an independent supplier of defense equipment, namely the lack of scaling. Canada and the United States are so integrated in their defense manufacturing, though, that I doubt Canada will strike out on their own even with the absurd tariffs.
“In other words, the LDP simply does what any rational ruling party should do in a functioning democracy — it gives the people what they want”
^does this formula only work in a culturally homogenous and highly conformist society like Japan? A place where you can unironically say things like “the people” as a singular entity? And where there’s still a kind of default respect for experienced leaders? It seems to me that it would be impossible to replicate in the US, where there is no “the people” singular, and where often what a decent number of swing voters want is just “I dunno, but NOT THIS”
That just means "Great Japan." Nihon and Nippon are the exact same word. After the Meiji Restoration of 1868 and the fall of the Tokugawa Shogunate, Japan established the Great Empire of Japan Constitution of 1889 (大日本帝国憲法) and so Great Empire of Japan became the official name. The name may also have predated the Meiji era, at least informally, as either Dai Nippon or O-Yamato. In earlier times, it didn't have the militant connotation and meant that the country was ruled by an emperor. "Great" was thrown in from time to time in writings if the author wanted to glorify the country, but it was not a call for overseas territorial expansion. Of course, that all changed with the imperialism of the Meiji era and beyond.
They won’t directly begin a nuclear weapons program, but might they begin investing in ballistic missiles that just happen to be appropriate for carrying nuclear warheads that don’t officially exist yet?
Japan should be able to allow defense spending to improve software innovation. Look at how DARPA has funded innovation in the USA!
This seems a bit too hopeful.
The basic thesis of the piece is that she will govern as a fairly moderate person, despite the rhetoric.
Noah Smith has been beating the "recognize the China threat" drum for a while. Takaichi says the right things.
You know who also rhetorically recognized the China threat?
Trump.
I think Noah Smith will concede that Trump has been terrible about actually preparing the US to resist China.
I would like to see Noah Smith, in the here and now, write what it would take from Takaichi for him to say, "Actually, her critics were/are right."
What if she just becomes another Edrogan or Orban?
What if she, like Trump, fails to maintain Japan's generally good international reputation and starts talking up East Asia Co Prosperity Sphere? (It would be very easy to shift from "We need to be prepared to oppose the PRC now" to "...And Japan's mistake was not doing enough to crush them in 1937." That would alienate the Koreans as well as the rest of Southeast Asia super quickly.
I really hope that the hope in this piece is borne out, but I see so many obvious failure states that this piece kind of papers over.
The meeting with SK seems promising. Could you imagine Trump doing the same with Canada and Mexico? Or Erdogan with Armenia? Or Orban with Ukraine?
Dogen has a pretty good YouTube video about how Takaichi and her cabinet have softened their anti immigrant rhetoric greatly after she became PM; she is from a political background and hasn’t said or done insane or inappropriate things like Trump has; and I haven’t seen any behavior from her that leads me to believe that she is trying to subvert the Japanese political system, so I am not particularly worried about her becoming like Erdogan or Orban.
What if...? You can put anything in a what if, but that doesn't make it a valid point. Where is your evidence that she is going to do any of these things.
The history of other right wing populists? Some of the stuff she personally has said?
I am not saying that this will happen. I am saying that this is disturbingly common for leaders who take her rhetorical position.
I feel like Noah Smith wrote a post talking about Roulette and how we are going to win so much money on red without mentioning that there is also a large chance it lands on black and we lose everything.
What are some examples of right wing statements she has made that are anywhere as repellent as what Trump says daily?
Her anti immigrant statements were basically complaints about rowdy tourists (not immigrants) kicking sacred deer in Nara (her home province) or swinging from Torii gates at temples. And also maybe the rules about letting tourists buy housing and get free state health insurance for them and their members.
The comments she has made about Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet are only controversial if you’re a PRC apologist.
The only strong right wing thing she has said was that her visiting Yasukuni shrine to the war dead (which includes war criminals) was okay because of freedom of religion and that other countries (China and Korea) shouldn’t have an opinion on it.
What people say is massively less important than what they do. Takaichi hasn’t done anything resembling the insanity we’re getting from Trump.
Also, Trump’s badness is not a product of recognizing the Chinese threat, it’s a product of a whole host of bad takes on other topics, paired with pathological selfishness. I don’t think this is a fair comparison.
Is she legit a drummer?
Yes! And she also loves motorcycles. She isn't as stuffy as other politicians in Japan and people like her...
Pretty good, but not as good as Senri Kawaguchi who is amazing, but much younger and a professional musician (since middle school) and not a politician.
Takaichi: https://youtu.be/405WliyzAs0
Kawaguchi: https://youtu.be/8skJxcC6WTM
Enjoyed the read, Noah. While China and others may frame this as a rise in Japanese nationalism and militarization, I think your piece makes a good case that Japan’s democratic system is responding to real pressures and pragmatic realities—demographics, security risks, and a less predictable U.S. Seems totally reasonable for a state to act in its own interests in these regards.
Was waiting for this one. Love the Japan-related posts!
Remark on interest cost: while high public debt is definitely a challenge for rearmament, but the rise in interest cost sometimes gets overblown: effective nominal interest rate, so what the gov actually pays, is expected to only be 1pp higher by 2033 than the recent lows. That's way smaller increase than inflation alone. So in real terms interest cost declined, even given the rise in interest rates pointed out in post!
I have nearly zero credence that the reason the LDP stays in power is because the LDP politicians of Japan are uniquely talented (the world over!) in changing their propositions based on what the people want.
Does not pass the smell test.
Yes, the British Conservative Party is famous for doing this (at least until like 2010) and yet there is healthy alternation between them and Labour (and before them, the Liberals) in power.
I'm far from an expert on Japan, but culturally they do seem to value unity, collective thinking and stability a LOT. So it doesn't strike me as too far fetched that the incumbent party manages to mostly stay in power so long as they adapt to current sentiments. I don't think it's the 'skill' of their politicians per se.
Until recently, another reason why Japan has managed to diversify politics while remaining a single-party state is habatsu (派閥), or factionalism. The LDP acted like a coalition party with multiple factions that seem to hate each other as much as other parties. Some factions are ultra-conservative (e.g., the Abe faction, of which the current PM used to be a member) while others are centrist (e.g., the Kochikai/Kishida faction, to which former PM Kishida belonged). They all have their distinct flavors and policy preferences. Most factions were officially abolished, though it remains to be seen if the cliquish Japanese politicians will just form more informal caucuses.
On the defense industry, Japan has a problem with scale. The small orders of bespoke systems from the JSDF make Japanese gear both exquisite and expensive. Other major manufacturers try to subsidize their domestic programs through exports, but Japan is entirely inexperienced in this area. Tokyo is making small strides, though I wonder if the public will support Japan following the ROK towards an export-led model.
Perhaps Noah know and chose not to write about it, but the biggest reason the LDP keeps winning is simply that the opposition parties, especially the left wing, are too weak. This explains almost everything about post-war Japanese politics.
I wonder if this piece is a bit too optimistic since Japan already carries high debt? Additionally, I wonder if Noah will update his previous post from 2024 about Japan opening itself up to immigration (https://open.substack.com/pub/noahpinion/p/why-japan-opened-itself-up-to-immigration?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web)... This new government is anti immigration and will also likely curb tourism even more.
I want Japan to do well, but I am also unsure if her simple answers to complex problems are the right way to politik. Her support of industries is good though, we shall see... Giving people what they want may make you stay in power but it doesn't always indicate good leadership, governance or long term structural advantages to your populace. That said, not all of her policy ideas are bad, they are overdue on some tech spending, greenfield and FDI, defense spending will be good overall. But I've yet to see a real policy related to tackling energy costs and being less dependent on the imports for that from her.
Good on Japan and South Korea for working together and leaving some of the past behind. A united Asia is a good Asia to balance China, it'll be good to see if they can also partner with India and Australia as well.
Interesting constitutional tidbit. The Japanese constitution was clearly written in English and translated to Japanese (the wording in places). It had many parts that were unpopular with most of the political powers in the country when implemented.
Yet to date, not a single amendment has been passed to change it.
I think that the tendency toward corruption scandals and self-dealing in Japanese government point to the downside of having a near-one-party state
Do we think the highlighted economic benefits of a renewed focus on defence will also accrue to a country like Canada?
I think Canada will face the same problem as Japan if they are to become an independent supplier of defense equipment, namely the lack of scaling. Canada and the United States are so integrated in their defense manufacturing, though, that I doubt Canada will strike out on their own even with the absurd tariffs.
You’re right about the scaling issue. I think it will have to be an integration with other medium powers including the EU.
“In other words, the LDP simply does what any rational ruling party should do in a functioning democracy — it gives the people what they want”
^does this formula only work in a culturally homogenous and highly conformist society like Japan? A place where you can unironically say things like “the people” as a singular entity? And where there’s still a kind of default respect for experienced leaders? It seems to me that it would be impossible to replicate in the US, where there is no “the people” singular, and where often what a decent number of swing voters want is just “I dunno, but NOT THIS”
Noah, nice work... I enjoy your unique insights on Japan...
I would be deeply surprised if Japan undertook a nuclear weapon development program.
If they decide to embrace war again, will they change back from Nihon to Nippon?
It's always been both Nihon and Nippon. One is not more militant than the other.
Isn't the militant version "Dai Nippon"?
That just means "Great Japan." Nihon and Nippon are the exact same word. After the Meiji Restoration of 1868 and the fall of the Tokugawa Shogunate, Japan established the Great Empire of Japan Constitution of 1889 (大日本帝国憲法) and so Great Empire of Japan became the official name. The name may also have predated the Meiji era, at least informally, as either Dai Nippon or O-Yamato. In earlier times, it didn't have the militant connotation and meant that the country was ruled by an emperor. "Great" was thrown in from time to time in writings if the author wanted to glorify the country, but it was not a call for overseas territorial expansion. Of course, that all changed with the imperialism of the Meiji era and beyond.
They won’t directly begin a nuclear weapons program, but might they begin investing in ballistic missiles that just happen to be appropriate for carrying nuclear warheads that don’t officially exist yet?