I should have written "start wars THAT destabilize" To your point, I one hundred percent agree for several reasons. 1. As the various dictatorships develop expertise in other industries to maintain their wealth, they create a larger professional class that will want to a share of power. 2. We have less incentive to prop-up unstable regimes because their destabilization poses less of a threat to US interests. As far as these relate to anti-Islamic sentiment in the US -- more and various types in industry coming from previously oil-dependent economies will create more opportunities for doing business with (and promoting understanding with) a more diverse set of Americans. And if Americans stop worrying that these regimes can easily destabilize our economy by cutting off the flow of oil, then we can be more understanding of Islam in general. The new diplomatic agreements with Israel by UAE & Bahrain has also been a bonus.
Are you sure you don't mean "the rise of EVs figures in here too"?
Renewables are used to generate electricity, which oil has long been too expensive for (except in isolated islands where overall demand is low). Oil-based fuels are used overwhelmingly for transportation.
Really nice insight. I think the idea of the conflict being foisted on to others is An interesting one. Africa is a pretty fast growing area for Islamic radicals but It doesn't get a lot of attention.
a few years ago, I remember Counting about 27 independent Islamic terrorist movements throughout the world and I wasn't including Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. There could be more now that they've made it gains in Africa. ISIS is still putting out great videos though, excellent production quality!
Today at dinner my dad—an immigrant from a Muslim country—remarked (in defending Biden): “you can’t just take everyone on the plane, some of those people could be terrorists!” This is a guy who has done work in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. Is some lady in Kansas a racist for having the same reaction as my dad did? No!
It’s a huge mistake to conflate refugees with the educated legal immigrants that comprise the vast majority of American Muslims. Most people in the Middle East (75%) wouldn’t immigrate to another country even if they had the choice: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245255/750-million-worldwide-migrate.aspx. The people who immigrate are quite different than the rest. By contrast, refugees leave because they are forced to. They’re a different group with a different mentality.
European countries have had significant problems with Muslim refugees. Radicalization is a real problem. We are lucky not to have that problem with American Muslims, but that’s because our Muslim population is H1Bs who come here because they want to be American.
Your article makes little sense. In 2003, terrorists killed 3,000 Americans in the name of Islam. That was most Americans’ first exposure to Islam. Since then, we haven’t had any major terrorist attacks. That explains why people have become more positive on Islam in general. But accepting refugees from terrorist hot zones (Syria, Afghanistan) still raises alarm. You see this as a sign of racism, but it’s entirely consistent with non-racist people learning to better separate Islam from terrorism. That’s a good thing!
Being worried about poor immigrants bringing over crime from their homeland isn’t unreasonable. 100 years ago, Americans were worried about Italians bringing over organized crime. And maybe that was overblown—but we did actually have the Italian mafia conducting hits in broad daylight in NYC until we got it under control in the 1980s. It’s unlikely that would have happened without Italian immigration. (France and Germany never had a similar organized crime problem.) Dismissing that concern as “racism” is unjustified.
Doesn't Europe still have a lot of economic migrants from the Middle East and North Africa, often occupying similar economic niches to Latinos in the US?
As for Italian organized crime, isn't it a result of the centuries-old underdevelopment of southern Italy, where most of the criminal organizations were spawned?
The Mafia (Cosa Nostra) came from Sicily, the Camorra from Naples, the 'Ndrangheta from Calabria and the Sacra Corona Unita from Apulia.
Muslims are only 1% of the US population but compose 10% of total physicians. The rise in the Muslim professional class makes it much harder to hate someone who is a colleague or friend.
While I see the point you are trying to make I fail to see 9% of Pakistanis, 14% of Nigerians, 8% of Turks, etc., supporting ISIS as a positive. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad those numbers aren't higher but I still find it alarming, not reassuring.
Well written article. As a muslim, i feel the biggest failure of the 9/11 strategy was lumping all muslims as one.
Each muslim shouldve have been judged by its ethnicity. Muslims from some countries were more prone to terrorism than others as their was a regional conflict involved.
Turkish and indian and indonesian muslims wernt involved at all.
Trump’s rhetoric was boorish, but that’s basically what the “Muslim ban” did. (Because Obama was the one that picked the countries!)
I feel like this is well understood in the Muslim world. Indian Muslims would be leery of Afghan refugees too. Bangladeshis are a bit alarmed by what’s going on in Pakistan. (And we’re dealing with our relatively small number of home grown islamists ruthlessly.)
It’s really odd for Noah to conclude that conservatives are racists because over the last 20 years they’ve apparently learned to distinguish Islam generally from terrorist hotbeds in specific countries. Now you can say it’s not fare to lump all Afghan refugees together and view them suspiciously, but that’s generic conservative fear of the unknown.
To what extent is the "Muslim problem" one of the Islamic _civilization_ rather than religion: the civilization that was created by the Arab conquests of the 7th and 8th centuries.
Islam in the Malay archipelago (and in southern Indian areas like Kerala) doesn't have the same pathologies as Middle Eastern Islam in part because it arrived with peaceful traders rather than conquering armies.
US military still in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.....difficult to say the war is over or that the Syrian civil war is a proxy war between Turkey, Russia/Iran with a straight face
The War against terror was the quintessential bait to the middle east tar baby which the US decided to get embroiled in with its eyes wide open despite that being OBL's publicly stated objective...For as long as the US remains hostage to actions of local forces in Afghanistan and Iraq,Syria and Yemen (how did I forget that) the war didn't end it just morphed into something else, exactly like the 30 yrs war did
Do you (or any commentators) have any recommendations for good writers working on foreign policy right now? I used to be really interested in foreign policy when I was in college (it was my specialization for my poli sci major!) but I’ve sort of dropped out of paying a lot of attention in the last decade or so. I feel kind of embarrassed I wasn’t initially sure how to feel about Biden’s announcement of our withdrawal from Yemen because I just didn’t know enough about the situation, and I want to remedy that!
I know a lot of people, but not being an expert I'm not always sure who is *good*. I tend to read a lot of different perspectives to try to get a broad understanding of the range of opinion.
Interesting article.. Just something I wanted to have discussion on though..
I think that muslims as an individuals are just like people from other religions, they care about prosperity and well being of themselves and their family. But mob of muslims is something to be fearful of.. Does that make me Islamophobic? Yes.. Does that mean I hate muslims? No.. I know I shouldn't be Islamophobic but then there is one simple fact that undercuts all my liberal thoughts..
There is not a single Muslim majority country where minority is more than say 10%.. and in almost all of Muslim majority countries, minority share is actually declining.. Yes it is because of generally high fertility rate in Muslims but there also innumerable accounts of forceful conversions like in the case of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh..
Even in India, Indian state lost control of Kashmir province temporarily in 90s and that period saw mass scale expulsion of Kashmiri Pandits and countless lost their lives too..
Although I am hopeful that the recent changes in Saudi Arabia and UAE will lead to qualitative change in reduction of radicalism but we also saw that in the case of Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Lebanon which had a relative liberal regime in 60s and 70s turn towards theocracy. Maybe there needs to be reinterpretation of Quranic verses like new and old testament.. Hopefully just as radical Wahhabism which emanated from Saudi Arabia in 70s and 80s which led to radicalism in Islamic world, current moderate regime and progressive ideas in Saudi Arabia will lead to moderate Muslims be in driving seat.
On another note.. I wanted to ask what exactly was wrong with Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) passed by Indian parliament. It states that prosecuted minorities(by the way it includes Christians also) in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will be eligible for fast-track citizenship. Detractors argue that prosecuted Muslims like Ahmediyyas should also have been eligible, but they were the votary of religion based partition of British India, it was the minorities living in these countries who didn't have a say in partition. Why should Indian state cater to each and every prosecuted minority as Indian state has limited capacity? Tomorrow detractors might say Shias should also be eligible (all these 3 mentioned countries are Sunni majority).. Is this a valid argument???? Where are the prosecuted minorities in these countries supposed to go if not in India?
AND ALSO CAA DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH INDIAN MUSLIMS. It won't strip them of their citizenship.. And this is one of the most vilest lie that has been told about this act..
And I sincerely hope that Noah would do more research before parroting (I didn't want to use a harsh word against Noah as I love almost all of his posts and he has helped me to broaden my knowledge base) people who have a clear bias against India..
I wonder if this article turned out to be a bad prediction? I'm sure the massive Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 will have caused a resurgence of Islamophobia throughout the Western world, with the strong performance of Geert Wilders's party in the Netherlands almost certainly being a result of this.
Late to this article, but I think part of the de-focus on Muslims by Trump was due to his close relationship with Saudi Arabia. It's hard to be anti-Muslim and taking so much of their money.
A note: I watched that video of Lieutenant Moath Youssef al-Kasasbeh being ostensibly burned alive by ISIS and it struck me as really strange. He was very calm for a man about to be turned into cinders. And the movement of his body seemed very artificial. The flames were improbable-looking. I Googled for some skeptical analysis, and this one linked here (however credible) rings true. Was this actually a horrific "snuff film," or just a semi-slick piece of CGI propaganda? It doesn't detract from your point, as even if the video was fake, the impact to ISIS was very real: http://www.thomaswictor.com/the-jordanian-pilot-was-not-burned-alive/
Thank you for un-paywalling this. Very thorough discussion. The conservative turn away from "enemies" abroad to "enemies" at home (e.g., "the Squad") is certainly ominous.
Well written article. As a muslim, i feel the biggest failure of the 9/11 strategy was lumping all muslims as one.
Each muslim shouldve have been judged by its ethnicity. Muslims from some countries were more prone to terrorism than others as their was a regional conflict involved.
Turkish and indian and indonesian muslims wernt involved at all.
Are you giving the Saudis a passs? The only exporter of the deadly poisonus and fractious Wahabbi ideology that has wreacked havoc across the Muslim world. Again, 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi citizens.
It's interesting how American Muslims were never as radicalised as, say, French ones. (I think the populations are about the same size). Clearly supports historical and social effects being more important than religious ones, but I'm not sure in what way. France has a more generous welfare state for example, so the classic argument about misplaced class anger seems less likely. America's more vibrant job market was probably better, since people need meaning more than money.
Do you think US muslims have a strong sense of group identity or do they originate from many places? Also how we'll have they done economically in the US?
France has a lot of poor Muslims from its former North African possessions, who are ignored by the state, live in poor quality social housing and are generally pissed off.
The UK is a point of contrast... Our Muslim populations is mainly from Pakistan and Bangladesh. It's economic performance is mixed (some rich, but many poor). It isn't politically ignored as it is geographically concentrated - good luck becoming mayor of oldham or Bradford without a vote winning strategy for the local Muslim areas. The result is that the level of disaffection amongst UK muslims is higher than the UK and lower than France.
It’s predictable actually. I’m a first generation. immigrant from a Muslim country. I lived in red states until my mid 20s. I married a Scots-Irish girl whose ancestors fought in the American Revolution. I’ve never felt anything less than completely accepted, including by a number of Trump-voting in laws. (I supported Biden, but I’m DeSantis 2024.)
There’s two reasons for this. One, immigrants are different then refugees. We came here to be American. Two, America is incredibly welcoming. My life would have been impossible in France. To be French, you have to know about a thousand different kinds of cheese, know all this backstory about their art and culture, etc. Here, all you have to do is wave the flag and honor the Constitution and know how to talk about college football.
The rise of renewables figures in here too. Oil is dying, which reduces our incentive to start wars/destabilize that part of the world.
That is a very good point. BUT, it could also destabilize Middle Eastern countries that are highly oil-dependent.
I should have written "start wars THAT destabilize" To your point, I one hundred percent agree for several reasons. 1. As the various dictatorships develop expertise in other industries to maintain their wealth, they create a larger professional class that will want to a share of power. 2. We have less incentive to prop-up unstable regimes because their destabilization poses less of a threat to US interests. As far as these relate to anti-Islamic sentiment in the US -- more and various types in industry coming from previously oil-dependent economies will create more opportunities for doing business with (and promoting understanding with) a more diverse set of Americans. And if Americans stop worrying that these regimes can easily destabilize our economy by cutting off the flow of oil, then we can be more understanding of Islam in general. The new diplomatic agreements with Israel by UAE & Bahrain has also been a bonus.
Also fracking, which makes the Middle East less important even if you do still want oil.
Are you sure you don't mean "the rise of EVs figures in here too"?
Renewables are used to generate electricity, which oil has long been too expensive for (except in isolated islands where overall demand is low). Oil-based fuels are used overwhelmingly for transportation.
Really nice insight. I think the idea of the conflict being foisted on to others is An interesting one. Africa is a pretty fast growing area for Islamic radicals but It doesn't get a lot of attention.
a few years ago, I remember Counting about 27 independent Islamic terrorist movements throughout the world and I wasn't including Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. There could be more now that they've made it gains in Africa. ISIS is still putting out great videos though, excellent production quality!
They should give up the whole "medievalist death cult" thing and become videographers!
Yes, they should start the Islamic Death Metal genre and put out music videos!
Excellent analysis. Masterful piece.
Thanks!!
Today at dinner my dad—an immigrant from a Muslim country—remarked (in defending Biden): “you can’t just take everyone on the plane, some of those people could be terrorists!” This is a guy who has done work in Afghanistan for almost 20 years. Is some lady in Kansas a racist for having the same reaction as my dad did? No!
It’s a huge mistake to conflate refugees with the educated legal immigrants that comprise the vast majority of American Muslims. Most people in the Middle East (75%) wouldn’t immigrate to another country even if they had the choice: https://news.gallup.com/poll/245255/750-million-worldwide-migrate.aspx. The people who immigrate are quite different than the rest. By contrast, refugees leave because they are forced to. They’re a different group with a different mentality.
European countries have had significant problems with Muslim refugees. Radicalization is a real problem. We are lucky not to have that problem with American Muslims, but that’s because our Muslim population is H1Bs who come here because they want to be American.
Your article makes little sense. In 2003, terrorists killed 3,000 Americans in the name of Islam. That was most Americans’ first exposure to Islam. Since then, we haven’t had any major terrorist attacks. That explains why people have become more positive on Islam in general. But accepting refugees from terrorist hot zones (Syria, Afghanistan) still raises alarm. You see this as a sign of racism, but it’s entirely consistent with non-racist people learning to better separate Islam from terrorism. That’s a good thing!
Being worried about poor immigrants bringing over crime from their homeland isn’t unreasonable. 100 years ago, Americans were worried about Italians bringing over organized crime. And maybe that was overblown—but we did actually have the Italian mafia conducting hits in broad daylight in NYC until we got it under control in the 1980s. It’s unlikely that would have happened without Italian immigration. (France and Germany never had a similar organized crime problem.) Dismissing that concern as “racism” is unjustified.
Doesn't Europe still have a lot of economic migrants from the Middle East and North Africa, often occupying similar economic niches to Latinos in the US?
As for Italian organized crime, isn't it a result of the centuries-old underdevelopment of southern Italy, where most of the criminal organizations were spawned?
The Mafia (Cosa Nostra) came from Sicily, the Camorra from Naples, the 'Ndrangheta from Calabria and the Sacra Corona Unita from Apulia.
Muslims are only 1% of the US population but compose 10% of total physicians. The rise in the Muslim professional class makes it much harder to hate someone who is a colleague or friend.
While I see the point you are trying to make I fail to see 9% of Pakistanis, 14% of Nigerians, 8% of Turks, etc., supporting ISIS as a positive. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad those numbers aren't higher but I still find it alarming, not reassuring.
Well written article. As a muslim, i feel the biggest failure of the 9/11 strategy was lumping all muslims as one.
Each muslim shouldve have been judged by its ethnicity. Muslims from some countries were more prone to terrorism than others as their was a regional conflict involved.
Turkish and indian and indonesian muslims wernt involved at all.
Pakistanis algerians moroccans afghans more so.
Trump’s rhetoric was boorish, but that’s basically what the “Muslim ban” did. (Because Obama was the one that picked the countries!)
I feel like this is well understood in the Muslim world. Indian Muslims would be leery of Afghan refugees too. Bangladeshis are a bit alarmed by what’s going on in Pakistan. (And we’re dealing with our relatively small number of home grown islamists ruthlessly.)
It’s really odd for Noah to conclude that conservatives are racists because over the last 20 years they’ve apparently learned to distinguish Islam generally from terrorist hotbeds in specific countries. Now you can say it’s not fare to lump all Afghan refugees together and view them suspiciously, but that’s generic conservative fear of the unknown.
To what extent is the "Muslim problem" one of the Islamic _civilization_ rather than religion: the civilization that was created by the Arab conquests of the 7th and 8th centuries.
Islam in the Malay archipelago (and in southern Indian areas like Kerala) doesn't have the same pathologies as Middle Eastern Islam in part because it arrived with peaceful traders rather than conquering armies.
US military still in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.....difficult to say the war is over or that the Syrian civil war is a proxy war between Turkey, Russia/Iran with a straight face
The War against terror was the quintessential bait to the middle east tar baby which the US decided to get embroiled in with its eyes wide open despite that being OBL's publicly stated objective...For as long as the US remains hostage to actions of local forces in Afghanistan and Iraq,Syria and Yemen (how did I forget that) the war didn't end it just morphed into something else, exactly like the 30 yrs war did
Do you (or any commentators) have any recommendations for good writers working on foreign policy right now? I used to be really interested in foreign policy when I was in college (it was my specialization for my poli sci major!) but I’ve sort of dropped out of paying a lot of attention in the last decade or so. I feel kind of embarrassed I wasn’t initially sure how to feel about Biden’s announcement of our withdrawal from Yemen because I just didn’t know enough about the situation, and I want to remedy that!
I know a lot of people, but not being an expert I'm not always sure who is *good*. I tend to read a lot of different perspectives to try to get a broad understanding of the range of opinion.
That said, always check out Paul Poast.
Interesting article.. Just something I wanted to have discussion on though..
I think that muslims as an individuals are just like people from other religions, they care about prosperity and well being of themselves and their family. But mob of muslims is something to be fearful of.. Does that make me Islamophobic? Yes.. Does that mean I hate muslims? No.. I know I shouldn't be Islamophobic but then there is one simple fact that undercuts all my liberal thoughts..
There is not a single Muslim majority country where minority is more than say 10%.. and in almost all of Muslim majority countries, minority share is actually declining.. Yes it is because of generally high fertility rate in Muslims but there also innumerable accounts of forceful conversions like in the case of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh..
Even in India, Indian state lost control of Kashmir province temporarily in 90s and that period saw mass scale expulsion of Kashmiri Pandits and countless lost their lives too..
Although I am hopeful that the recent changes in Saudi Arabia and UAE will lead to qualitative change in reduction of radicalism but we also saw that in the case of Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Lebanon which had a relative liberal regime in 60s and 70s turn towards theocracy. Maybe there needs to be reinterpretation of Quranic verses like new and old testament.. Hopefully just as radical Wahhabism which emanated from Saudi Arabia in 70s and 80s which led to radicalism in Islamic world, current moderate regime and progressive ideas in Saudi Arabia will lead to moderate Muslims be in driving seat.
On another note.. I wanted to ask what exactly was wrong with Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) passed by Indian parliament. It states that prosecuted minorities(by the way it includes Christians also) in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will be eligible for fast-track citizenship. Detractors argue that prosecuted Muslims like Ahmediyyas should also have been eligible, but they were the votary of religion based partition of British India, it was the minorities living in these countries who didn't have a say in partition. Why should Indian state cater to each and every prosecuted minority as Indian state has limited capacity? Tomorrow detractors might say Shias should also be eligible (all these 3 mentioned countries are Sunni majority).. Is this a valid argument???? Where are the prosecuted minorities in these countries supposed to go if not in India?
AND ALSO CAA DOESN'T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH INDIAN MUSLIMS. It won't strip them of their citizenship.. And this is one of the most vilest lie that has been told about this act..
And I sincerely hope that Noah would do more research before parroting (I didn't want to use a harsh word against Noah as I love almost all of his posts and he has helped me to broaden my knowledge base) people who have a clear bias against India..
I wonder if this article turned out to be a bad prediction? I'm sure the massive Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 will have caused a resurgence of Islamophobia throughout the Western world, with the strong performance of Geert Wilders's party in the Netherlands almost certainly being a result of this.
Late to this article, but I think part of the de-focus on Muslims by Trump was due to his close relationship with Saudi Arabia. It's hard to be anti-Muslim and taking so much of their money.
A note: I watched that video of Lieutenant Moath Youssef al-Kasasbeh being ostensibly burned alive by ISIS and it struck me as really strange. He was very calm for a man about to be turned into cinders. And the movement of his body seemed very artificial. The flames were improbable-looking. I Googled for some skeptical analysis, and this one linked here (however credible) rings true. Was this actually a horrific "snuff film," or just a semi-slick piece of CGI propaganda? It doesn't detract from your point, as even if the video was fake, the impact to ISIS was very real: http://www.thomaswictor.com/the-jordanian-pilot-was-not-burned-alive/
Thank you for un-paywalling this. Very thorough discussion. The conservative turn away from "enemies" abroad to "enemies" at home (e.g., "the Squad") is certainly ominous.
Well written article. As a muslim, i feel the biggest failure of the 9/11 strategy was lumping all muslims as one.
Each muslim shouldve have been judged by its ethnicity. Muslims from some countries were more prone to terrorism than others as their was a regional conflict involved.
Turkish and indian and indonesian muslims wernt involved at all.
Pakistanis algerians moroccans afghans more so.
Are you giving the Saudis a passs? The only exporter of the deadly poisonus and fractious Wahabbi ideology that has wreacked havoc across the Muslim world. Again, 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi citizens.
It's interesting how American Muslims were never as radicalised as, say, French ones. (I think the populations are about the same size). Clearly supports historical and social effects being more important than religious ones, but I'm not sure in what way. France has a more generous welfare state for example, so the classic argument about misplaced class anger seems less likely. America's more vibrant job market was probably better, since people need meaning more than money.
The US is just exceptionally good at the whole immigration thing. Even Somali refugees are doing better economically in the US than, for example, Sweden, so it's not just immigrant selection: https://www.minnpost.com/community-voices/2017/05/tale-twin-cities-and-somalis-being-trumped/
Do you think US muslims have a strong sense of group identity or do they originate from many places? Also how we'll have they done economically in the US?
France has a lot of poor Muslims from its former North African possessions, who are ignored by the state, live in poor quality social housing and are generally pissed off.
The UK is a point of contrast... Our Muslim populations is mainly from Pakistan and Bangladesh. It's economic performance is mixed (some rich, but many poor). It isn't politically ignored as it is geographically concentrated - good luck becoming mayor of oldham or Bradford without a vote winning strategy for the local Muslim areas. The result is that the level of disaffection amongst UK muslims is higher than the UK and lower than France.
It’s predictable actually. I’m a first generation. immigrant from a Muslim country. I lived in red states until my mid 20s. I married a Scots-Irish girl whose ancestors fought in the American Revolution. I’ve never felt anything less than completely accepted, including by a number of Trump-voting in laws. (I supported Biden, but I’m DeSantis 2024.)
There’s two reasons for this. One, immigrants are different then refugees. We came here to be American. Two, America is incredibly welcoming. My life would have been impossible in France. To be French, you have to know about a thousand different kinds of cheese, know all this backstory about their art and culture, etc. Here, all you have to do is wave the flag and honor the Constitution and know how to talk about college football.
America's superpower is assimilation.