There is one gaping hole in this otherwise excellent overview of how we find ourselves in this "situation":
Parents.
As a parent of only 10 years, one of the biggest surprises to me, In spite of the realities of life laid out here, has been the persistence of the "participation trophy", or as I prefer to see view the problem: the avoidance of accurate assessment. When we as parents do not accurately assess our children, we deprive them of the ability to accurately assess themselves.
The very statement "overproduction of elites" is an oxymoron. One is elite because of their abilities is relation to others. They cannot be overproduced. What we have is simply the over production of people who *think* they are elite.
This inevitably leads these individuals to the expectation vs reality problem that causes unhappiness. The unhappiness persists because the individual lacks the ability to self asses. The problem they conclude is the system.
As I struggle to find the correct balance between encouragement and criticism of my children, I find my wife and I alone in our struggle. "I just want my kids to live in reality when they grow up", I explain to my wife as we discuss potential strategies to motivate without deluding.
As I often say, do no underestimate societies ability to normalize self destructive behaviors. The solution is not policy, it's Parenting.
Right. The term elite is meant to literally mean the best of the best. Education and practice only get you so far, but the real elites are rare like people who play professional sports at major league level . Maybe the term managerial class or professional class would be better .
As a newer parent, and person who is around lots of young parents I wish I could like this 100x. Also the social media algorithm doesn't encourage self assessment, people want maximum output with minimal input, and they want because they see other people attaining, they don't care if they aren't as talented. It's frustrating.
I think I see the disconnect in your corporate drone comment. As an example, I know someone who was all in on this humanities/socialism track and the ended up being a sales trainer for a pharmaceutical company and loved it. There are still a ton of great jobs out there but a lot of kids just don’t know what’s available. And part of that is how common the idea of the corporate drone job is from people who don’t know what they are talking about. A lot of those jobs are fun and lucrative and way better than the prestige jobs that many focus on.
Also, a lot of these young people who don’t have the lives that met their expectations. Think they have some sort of God-given right to live in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, or any other big city with big expenses. There are lots of other places in America, Charlotte, Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City come to mind where someone could have a great job and a fulfilling life. Some of these people need to take a vacation to America and see what the rest of the country has to offer.
True but if you want to work in finance you probably are better off trying to make it in NYC. And if you have creative talent you probably would want to make it in Hollywood. The point of the book Abundance is to address the affordability crisis in these elite cities. You can’t replicate what the Hollywoods , Silicon Valley and Wall Street on Main Street 😎
I think people at the very least need to stop with the expectation of constantly rising home prices . If the ideas in the abundance agenda are successful then home prices will go down and society as a whole will be better off. People need to have other sources of long term wealth other than housing.
Ok so it isn’t my imagination that the job market is terrible for software. The tidbit that there are more CS majors than all of the humanities is an insane factoid.
Keep in mind that for 80% of these kids the CS degree just proves to corporate American that they aren’t an idiot. They aren’t going to be working at OpenAI or SpaceX. Maybe something like a business analyst telling ChatGPT what code to write.
I envision a future of millions of STEM grads, three of whom will know something of American history, world history, political economy and philosophy, and one will have read two pages of a Shakespeare masterpiece.
How is that different than what the college-educated were indoctrinated with? Qatar poured $13 billion into US universities with an expected ROI that has finally showed up in force.
I almost hate to say it as a humanities grad myself but consider those millions of humanities grads, three of whom know Ohm's law and one of whom knows one of Newton's laws of motion.
True enough. On the other hand, how often does Ohm's law come up in a dinner conversation, and, if it does, for how long can host and attending guests sustain it — or would want to? And though I'm no authority on Ohm's law, I'll venture that it has little application to a gathering attempting to sort out the present horrors of this country (and the world), and what can be done about it.
Also, true enough, but seriously how often does Shakespeare come up in dinner conversations? Or, maybe I just hang out with the wrong people. I'm a big fan myself.
But, also, knowledge of things like Ohm's law, the Standard Model, etc. are necessary, if not sufficient, to guarantee the kind of abundance necessary to turn the tide on the horrors which tend to revolve around the denial of the wisdom of such things.
I feel like the rise of manosphere and tech right and this comp sci steuggling to get job are under discussed!
And what is happening I guess is like the arrival of “normies” to comp sci essentially pushed out the type of ppl we typically imagine to be CS (socially awkward and not taking showers) struggles more in the job market and that pushes them into this online right field.
good or bad, their verbal intelligence is relatively lower vis a vis their quantitative one or compared to those disgruntled humanity grads and their low social skill kinda shows up in the movement now I feel…
Thanks for sharing these models/frameworks, Noah...intuitively they seem to explain much of what we've experienced during the past 20+ years, and the statistics/metrics you cite, as expected, seem to provide plausible empirical support. As I read through your post, however, I kept projecting much of your analysis (and the forces/drivers you apply) onto the nationalist movements and the growth of "right" here in the US -- especially the expansive growth of the Trump/MAGA movement and acceptance of its foundational model/values -- and around the world. In particular, the "revolution of rising expectations" would also seem to provide some substantial support for how the large non-elite, working class segments in society have also been driven by their own "happiness gap" (negative) which, in turn, causes them to succumb to Trump's false hope of "improving reality" by promising to make the future replicate the past (when expectations were original set)...and "defining deviancy down" as he moves forward. Of course, many other forces ("earthquakes") -- the impacts of technologies across society, the rise of powerful/focused global economic competition, etc. -- have been at work to disrupt and drive down their expectations, but the gap is both perceived and real. And Trump has been the perfect, timely grifter to sing the siren's song of "yesterday." All this is to say, can you -- using "revolution of rising expectations" theories and others -- construct a plausible/defensible theory for our national movement to the right? Hope you have safe, fun visit to Japan...Happy 4th! 🇺🇸😁🇺🇸
I was rather brutal in my assessments to my children - and they ended up thanking me for it. I knew their IQ's and I saw how they did on Differential and Integral Calculus as well as their science and other classes while they were in high school.
Daughter - you would make a rather mediocre to average physcist, go into engineering. I told her to avoid Materials Science because of its close links to manufacturing, which is too much outsourced (I am a Physcist with a PhD in Mechanical Engineering - Materials Science). She ended up in Civil Engineering and had her MS at 21. She does bridge and tunnel seismic work.
Son - You would make a mediocre engineer but have good social and organizational skills, go into Business. He did Business - MIS and had his MS in MIS - Data Security at 21. His backup if he didn't have an aptitude for business was Eastern European studies with a minor in Russian and Army ROTC (this was approximately 8 years ago, I could see the priority and his mother is Ukrainian and he is somewhat familiar with Ukrainian.)
Also, I am old and they knew that they had to launch immediately, so their objectives were practical.
Curious if you see this happening in China as well. Feel like there have already been lots of anecdotes (lay flat) of this in China but the demographics, education, and wage levels would make it even more acute.
Saying “this time it’s a revolt of the college educated” in comparison to past upheavals, means a lot less when so many more people are college educated.
The rent is too damn high in more way than one. The rent sought on educations, land, and the imbalance of taxation on labor vs. capital. It’s not just expectation miss for “vague reasons” - it’s a system disadvantaging of young in favor of old.
Noah - your writing is beyond brilliant - and I would love to speak with you anytime. I am about to launch my 11th and for sure last startup - totally agree with your thoughts and opinions. I have 2 children and 3 grandchildren - and live in NYC. One of the major topics of my new business is global gender inequality - and this chart is something that I hope to working with as one of the handful of other projects to begin to make a difference
There is one gaping hole in this otherwise excellent overview of how we find ourselves in this "situation":
Parents.
As a parent of only 10 years, one of the biggest surprises to me, In spite of the realities of life laid out here, has been the persistence of the "participation trophy", or as I prefer to see view the problem: the avoidance of accurate assessment. When we as parents do not accurately assess our children, we deprive them of the ability to accurately assess themselves.
The very statement "overproduction of elites" is an oxymoron. One is elite because of their abilities is relation to others. They cannot be overproduced. What we have is simply the over production of people who *think* they are elite.
This inevitably leads these individuals to the expectation vs reality problem that causes unhappiness. The unhappiness persists because the individual lacks the ability to self asses. The problem they conclude is the system.
As I struggle to find the correct balance between encouragement and criticism of my children, I find my wife and I alone in our struggle. "I just want my kids to live in reality when they grow up", I explain to my wife as we discuss potential strategies to motivate without deluding.
As I often say, do no underestimate societies ability to normalize self destructive behaviors. The solution is not policy, it's Parenting.
Right. The term elite is meant to literally mean the best of the best. Education and practice only get you so far, but the real elites are rare like people who play professional sports at major league level . Maybe the term managerial class or professional class would be better .
As a newer parent, and person who is around lots of young parents I wish I could like this 100x. Also the social media algorithm doesn't encourage self assessment, people want maximum output with minimal input, and they want because they see other people attaining, they don't care if they aren't as talented. It's frustrating.
I think I see the disconnect in your corporate drone comment. As an example, I know someone who was all in on this humanities/socialism track and the ended up being a sales trainer for a pharmaceutical company and loved it. There are still a ton of great jobs out there but a lot of kids just don’t know what’s available. And part of that is how common the idea of the corporate drone job is from people who don’t know what they are talking about. A lot of those jobs are fun and lucrative and way better than the prestige jobs that many focus on.
Also, a lot of these young people who don’t have the lives that met their expectations. Think they have some sort of God-given right to live in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, or any other big city with big expenses. There are lots of other places in America, Charlotte, Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City come to mind where someone could have a great job and a fulfilling life. Some of these people need to take a vacation to America and see what the rest of the country has to offer.
True but if you want to work in finance you probably are better off trying to make it in NYC. And if you have creative talent you probably would want to make it in Hollywood. The point of the book Abundance is to address the affordability crisis in these elite cities. You can’t replicate what the Hollywoods , Silicon Valley and Wall Street on Main Street 😎
I think people at the very least need to stop with the expectation of constantly rising home prices . If the ideas in the abundance agenda are successful then home prices will go down and society as a whole will be better off. People need to have other sources of long term wealth other than housing.
Ok so it isn’t my imagination that the job market is terrible for software. The tidbit that there are more CS majors than all of the humanities is an insane factoid.
Keep in mind that for 80% of these kids the CS degree just proves to corporate American that they aren’t an idiot. They aren’t going to be working at OpenAI or SpaceX. Maybe something like a business analyst telling ChatGPT what code to write.
I envision a future of millions of STEM grads, three of whom will know something of American history, world history, political economy and philosophy, and one will have read two pages of a Shakespeare masterpiece.
How is that different than what the college-educated were indoctrinated with? Qatar poured $13 billion into US universities with an expected ROI that has finally showed up in force.
I almost hate to say it as a humanities grad myself but consider those millions of humanities grads, three of whom know Ohm's law and one of whom knows one of Newton's laws of motion.
True enough. On the other hand, how often does Ohm's law come up in a dinner conversation, and, if it does, for how long can host and attending guests sustain it — or would want to? And though I'm no authority on Ohm's law, I'll venture that it has little application to a gathering attempting to sort out the present horrors of this country (and the world), and what can be done about it.
Also, true enough, but seriously how often does Shakespeare come up in dinner conversations? Or, maybe I just hang out with the wrong people. I'm a big fan myself.
But, also, knowledge of things like Ohm's law, the Standard Model, etc. are necessary, if not sufficient, to guarantee the kind of abundance necessary to turn the tide on the horrors which tend to revolve around the denial of the wisdom of such things.
"a fun post that I wrote back in 2022"
If this is your idea of a "fun post," I'd like to hear about the fun funerals you've been to recently.
I feel like the rise of manosphere and tech right and this comp sci steuggling to get job are under discussed!
And what is happening I guess is like the arrival of “normies” to comp sci essentially pushed out the type of ppl we typically imagine to be CS (socially awkward and not taking showers) struggles more in the job market and that pushes them into this online right field.
good or bad, their verbal intelligence is relatively lower vis a vis their quantitative one or compared to those disgruntled humanity grads and their low social skill kinda shows up in the movement now I feel…
True.
Frustrated humanities majors who are overwhelmingly female go radical left wing.
Frustrated STEM majors who are overwhelmingly male go radical right wing.
Yeah, that is def true…
Thanks for sharing these models/frameworks, Noah...intuitively they seem to explain much of what we've experienced during the past 20+ years, and the statistics/metrics you cite, as expected, seem to provide plausible empirical support. As I read through your post, however, I kept projecting much of your analysis (and the forces/drivers you apply) onto the nationalist movements and the growth of "right" here in the US -- especially the expansive growth of the Trump/MAGA movement and acceptance of its foundational model/values -- and around the world. In particular, the "revolution of rising expectations" would also seem to provide some substantial support for how the large non-elite, working class segments in society have also been driven by their own "happiness gap" (negative) which, in turn, causes them to succumb to Trump's false hope of "improving reality" by promising to make the future replicate the past (when expectations were original set)...and "defining deviancy down" as he moves forward. Of course, many other forces ("earthquakes") -- the impacts of technologies across society, the rise of powerful/focused global economic competition, etc. -- have been at work to disrupt and drive down their expectations, but the gap is both perceived and real. And Trump has been the perfect, timely grifter to sing the siren's song of "yesterday." All this is to say, can you -- using "revolution of rising expectations" theories and others -- construct a plausible/defensible theory for our national movement to the right? Hope you have safe, fun visit to Japan...Happy 4th! 🇺🇸😁🇺🇸
I kind of wish I could escape to Tokyo this forth of July
in business class at the minimum.
I was rather brutal in my assessments to my children - and they ended up thanking me for it. I knew their IQ's and I saw how they did on Differential and Integral Calculus as well as their science and other classes while they were in high school.
Daughter - you would make a rather mediocre to average physcist, go into engineering. I told her to avoid Materials Science because of its close links to manufacturing, which is too much outsourced (I am a Physcist with a PhD in Mechanical Engineering - Materials Science). She ended up in Civil Engineering and had her MS at 21. She does bridge and tunnel seismic work.
Son - You would make a mediocre engineer but have good social and organizational skills, go into Business. He did Business - MIS and had his MS in MIS - Data Security at 21. His backup if he didn't have an aptitude for business was Eastern European studies with a minor in Russian and Army ROTC (this was approximately 8 years ago, I could see the priority and his mother is Ukrainian and he is somewhat familiar with Ukrainian.)
Also, I am old and they knew that they had to launch immediately, so their objectives were practical.
Curious if you see this happening in China as well. Feel like there have already been lots of anecdotes (lay flat) of this in China but the demographics, education, and wage levels would make it even more acute.
Saying “this time it’s a revolt of the college educated” in comparison to past upheavals, means a lot less when so many more people are college educated.
The rent is too damn high in more way than one. The rent sought on educations, land, and the imbalance of taxation on labor vs. capital. It’s not just expectation miss for “vague reasons” - it’s a system disadvantaging of young in favor of old.
Noah - your writing is beyond brilliant - and I would love to speak with you anytime. I am about to launch my 11th and for sure last startup - totally agree with your thoughts and opinions. I have 2 children and 3 grandchildren - and live in NYC. One of the major topics of my new business is global gender inequality - and this chart is something that I hope to working with as one of the handful of other projects to begin to make a difference