I think a lot of people know someone who has been laid-off or furloughed recently, and that is why perceptions of the economy are bad. Or the next best thing - they know people who are having trouble finding work.
Agree. This is much more simple. A shit ton of people just didn't get paid for 7 weeks, and probably aren't going to get paid for another few weeks or months. Right when property tax bills are due and people are needing to think about Christmas shopping. I would imagine almost everyone knows someone who was furloughed.
There's also a sense of impending doom about the seeming giant stock bubble that were all just waiting to pop. It doesn't feel like you can invest in anything right now, prices are too high. Everyone's waiting for the AI thing to start really causing job losses, just feels like a sword hanging over people's heads.
Here's the perspective of a start-up manufacturer of a physical good. Our product is made from steel parts that I'm currently in India to source. Plus off the shelf electronics and a lock that we import from China, because there is no other source.
We assemble the product in the US, creating jobs there. I *want* to manufacture in the US.
The electronics and lock have doubled in price since April. I'd love to cut and bend the steel in the US, but protectionist tariffs have increased local steel prices by 50%, reducing the advantages of domestic manufacturing.
So, tariffs are approximately 35% of the cost of the finished product. This is a struggle. Sometimes I want to bag it and just invest my money in something more predictable.
You're the living embodiment of the Diamond-Mirrlees model!
I wish more people out there realized that these abstract-looking econ models represent real people with real lives, and that this stuff is all very high stakes...
Tariffs certainly are a big issue in manufacturing, but I am not sure why you are dismissing the role of immigration policy. The loss of a large low-cost labor force, especially in construction, would seem to be impactful.
Economist could have told him that his immigration and high deficit creating polices woud also be bad. On all these things, he has been _even worse than Biden!_
This piece reminds me the single most important quality in a President is the will and ability to take counsel from qualified experts. And, just as important, listen to counter arguments. No President gets this exactly right, but none gets it as spectacularly wrong as Trump.
IMO, in this regard, there were forests of red flags vis a vis Trump from the results of his string of business failures.
Property taxes are an interesting case, since they're the sum of a land value tax and a tax on development. The land value tax is the best tax we know of, but a tax on development is bad. So property taxes could be great or bad, depending on how much of the value being taxed is the value of the underlying land.
> Since property prices basically doubled in the past ten years, what about tax revenue from it?
That's not how property taxes work.
That is: cities don't go "Our property tax rate is 2%. Property values have doubled, now the city budget has twice as much money so let's go build some world class parks."
Cities go: "Our budget is $25 million. The estimated value of property in our town is $2 billion. What property tax rate do we need to set to raise $25 million?"
"After the local government budget passes, known revenues are subtracted, leaving a deficit covered by property taxes. This amount divided by the town’s property value, multiplied by 1,000, gives the mill rate."
You can google "millage rate" to learn more about how it works.
I think a lot of people know someone who has been laid-off or furloughed recently, and that is why perceptions of the economy are bad. Or the next best thing - they know people who are having trouble finding work.
Agree. This is much more simple. A shit ton of people just didn't get paid for 7 weeks, and probably aren't going to get paid for another few weeks or months. Right when property tax bills are due and people are needing to think about Christmas shopping. I would imagine almost everyone knows someone who was furloughed.
There's also a sense of impending doom about the seeming giant stock bubble that were all just waiting to pop. It doesn't feel like you can invest in anything right now, prices are too high. Everyone's waiting for the AI thing to start really causing job losses, just feels like a sword hanging over people's heads.
Here's the perspective of a start-up manufacturer of a physical good. Our product is made from steel parts that I'm currently in India to source. Plus off the shelf electronics and a lock that we import from China, because there is no other source.
We assemble the product in the US, creating jobs there. I *want* to manufacture in the US.
The electronics and lock have doubled in price since April. I'd love to cut and bend the steel in the US, but protectionist tariffs have increased local steel prices by 50%, reducing the advantages of domestic manufacturing.
So, tariffs are approximately 35% of the cost of the finished product. This is a struggle. Sometimes I want to bag it and just invest my money in something more predictable.
You're the living embodiment of the Diamond-Mirrlees model!
I wish more people out there realized that these abstract-looking econ models represent real people with real lives, and that this stuff is all very high stakes...
I think you should probably put “intellectuals” in quotes when describing Oren Cass
Tariffs certainly are a big issue in manufacturing, but I am not sure why you are dismissing the role of immigration policy. The loss of a large low-cost labor force, especially in construction, would seem to be impactful.
That's true!
Economist could have told him that his immigration and high deficit creating polices woud also be bad. On all these things, he has been _even worse than Biden!_
This piece reminds me the single most important quality in a President is the will and ability to take counsel from qualified experts. And, just as important, listen to counter arguments. No President gets this exactly right, but none gets it as spectacularly wrong as Trump.
IMO, in this regard, there were forests of red flags vis a vis Trump from the results of his string of business failures.
In Japan . Everyone is complaining about affordability !
This is a winning argument. Listen to economists. I just wish so many people didn't need to hear it.
Property taxes are a tax on unrealized gains. Since property prices basically doubled in the past ten years, what about tax revenue from it?
Property taxes are an interesting case, since they're the sum of a land value tax and a tax on development. The land value tax is the best tax we know of, but a tax on development is bad. So property taxes could be great or bad, depending on how much of the value being taxed is the value of the underlying land.
> Since property prices basically doubled in the past ten years, what about tax revenue from it?
That's not how property taxes work.
That is: cities don't go "Our property tax rate is 2%. Property values have doubled, now the city budget has twice as much money so let's go build some world class parks."
Cities go: "Our budget is $25 million. The estimated value of property in our town is $2 billion. What property tax rate do we need to set to raise $25 million?"
From https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/millrate.asp:
"After the local government budget passes, known revenues are subtracted, leaving a deficit covered by property taxes. This amount divided by the town’s property value, multiplied by 1,000, gives the mill rate."
You can google "millage rate" to learn more about how it works.