It would be deeply ironic if Trump's Iran war moves up the worldwide time table to full electrification by 2-3 years. Someone should look at the amount of electric vehicles sold in March vs. February.
You are joking, but I could see this happening overseas faster than here in the US, just this week the Trump admin paid a company $1B to not continue with their wind farm expansions in the Atlantic and instead invest more in oil + gas... You can't make this stuff up.
Here in Hawaii, *inventory* of new electric and plug-in hybrid cars dropped considerably from mid-2025. We bought the next-to-last Nissan Leaf from the Nissan lot in Honolulu in April '25; but from September '25 onwards to Jan. '26 there was zero inventory--anything coming in was pre-purchased. We were told that Japan was making and shipping fewer EV's because of Trumpian policies.
So we bought a Prius plug-in in Jan. '26; again the next-to-last on the lot. Would've preferred another Leaf; but the Prius had to do.
Trump's hostility and illegal harassment of renewable energy projects has been disastrous for both car owners and electric utility ratepayers. If/when Dems get back in power, should there be similar reprisals against Trump's buddies in Big Oil?
Politicians always try to sell us the story that America is just the world's reluctant peacekeeper, only fighting when we absolutely have to. But if you look at our actual track record—from Vietnam to Iraq—it’s pretty obvious that's a lie. Leaders in Washington are just really good at making power grabs sound like noble fights for human rights, all while our wars end up killing hundreds of thousands of innocent, everyday people in the name of "freedom." The mendacity occurs regardless of which administration we have, imperial ambitions never die, only the people we purport to save. Poorer countries will suffer from our actions and for what, an illusion. There are no nukes in Iran there were no WMDs in Iraq and there was no domino that fell after Vietnam. When you stop and look at the sheer amount of death left behind, you realize our foreign policy isn't really about being the good guys; it's mostly just a giant machine that inflicts a massive amount of suffering to get what it wants.
But I'm deeply doubtful about what Bibi and Trump are saying in this regard, as both lie like pathological rugs. I've seen references to the Iranians having "*near* weapons grade" uranium. Which means what? That it might take further weeks/months/years to further refine it for bomb purposes?
my understanding is that the claim is narrowly accurate in the sense that if their uranium wasn't mostly buried in rubble it would be physically possible to enrich it to weapons-grade in a few weeks
It's my sincere hope that American voters realize how the stumbles are self-inflicted, as Noah pointed out. Trump received a goldilocks economy with high employment and rapidly falling inflation near target levels... and then he screwed things up with tariffs and now the ill-conceived war on Iran (not to mention insanity like threatening to invade Greenland). Given Trump's strong disapproval from independents, it seems a lot of people are aware of this now, but I'm still bitter that so many decided to roll the dice and vote for him anyway. Harris would have continued the recovery just fine without the lunacy the whole world has to suffer from now.
2024 was the most brain dead checked out don’t give a shit that I have ever seen voters in this country. It’s like voters had collective amnesia and forgot all about the chaos of Trump’s first term and the fact that he tried to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump won't care about what happens to the European or UK economies. He enjoys seeing people suffering when he doesn't agree with their government's policies. And then he blames the policies for the suffering regardless of the evidence that it's probably not them but him that caused it. It's as if he sits down, thinks what the right thing would be to do in any given situation, then works out what the exact opposite of that would be in every conceivable respect, and does that. American contrariness combined with German precision.
Trump has always had somebody show up to clean up his messes when he does something stupid. His dad ponied up $500 million when Trump bankrupted his three casinos. Roy Cohn was there to sue or counter-sue all the small contractors Donny stiffed. Putin's Oligarchs funneled money to him via Deutsche Bank during the aughts when no other bank would touch him.
He and his GOP cronies have proven themselves to be a bunch of incompetent grifters who care only about cutting taxes for the Epstein class.
"That will simply reinforce the notion of America as a force for chaos — a bully who jumps in, smashes things up, and leaves others to deal with the consequences. It will be very hard to shake that reputation, even after Trump is out of office."
He was absolutely incensed 4 weeks ago when Bluesky Leftists said something similar.
The asymmetry is the real story here. The U.S. absorbs a 50% oil spike as a 1.25 point inflation bump. Countries that depend on those same corridors for food and fuel face shortages. Same shock, completely different system capacity to absorb it. How much of that resilience gap is structural versus just dollar privilege?
I don’t really get the “Iran’s government is as strong as ever!” Narrative. It feels like wishcasting. People started saying this literally on day one. “It’s been hours and the IRGC still hasn’t fully collapsed! *unbelievably smug face*
That article you linked was from March 12. If we were three years into a one week war that’d be fine, but that article is from one week into a barely over two week war, that was supposedly expected to last 4-5 weeks.
It’s disheartening that literally nobody seems capable of being honest about anything that’s going on. Everyone is still stuck in the “if I believe it then it’ll come true” phase.
Of course we will come out of the war O.K.; that's what we do. We sit on here our own, bordered by hitherto friendly neighbors, oceans away from our military adventures and inexhaustible proxy wars. Only the kids we send out to fight get killed and maimed. Our generals don't, and our leaders never do. But we kill a lot of other people, all around the world, in the name of freedom, and I can assure you, human nature being what it is, they never forget, and rarely, I suspect, ever forgive. Would we forget, much less forgive, if someone bombed our town, killing our children and neighbors? Really? America iis a young, incredibly fortunate place, but its lack a history hides the centuries of bloodshed mankind has endured. We have not had to live with the viceral consequences of the likes of the 30 Years War or the Taiping Rebellion, & etc. At least not yet. When we are done killing, we just hop on our planes' helicopters, and ships and come home to safety. The closest we've come was our Civil War war, and damned if we are not heading that way again, figuaratively if not literrally--largely because we didn't learn our lessons in that conflict, and half of the country has neither forgotten nor forgiven its losses nor taken responsibility for its causes. But then again, it appears that this is what we do. God have mercy on us (because no one else will).
Well said. I'd only add one thing: everything you describe rests on the assumption that the asymmetry is permanent. That there will always be a safe home to fly back to, that no one out there will ever be strong enough to return the favor. History says otherwise. Power diffuses. It always has. And when it does, all those grievances won't have gone anywhere. People remember. Countries remember. That stuff compounds quietly in the background until the balance shifts. America is the single most powerful hegemon the world has ever seen. I don't think anyone seriously disputes that. But watching from the outside, it's hard not to see the pattern. This is what empires look like when they start lashing out in the early stages of decline. Not because they're weak yet, but because something has gone wrong internally and the response is to double down on aggression instead of fixing what's broken. The MAGA thing, the belligerence, the burning of alliances that took decades to build, the turning inward while simultaneously picking fights everywhere. The sun does eventually set on every empire.
And look, I don't wish decline on anyone. Honestly, the world does better when America does well. But big ships carry enormous momentum. Decades of accumulated goodwill, economic gravity, institutional weight. That's what makes this so dangerous. The ship is so massive that when someone nudges the wheel in the wrong direction, nobody on board even feels it. It's still moving, still looks fine, still feels like the same ship. But the heading has changed. Just a few degrees. And somewhere out there the iceberg is waiting, and by the time anyone spots it, a ship that size can't turn fast enough. The gears are already in motion and most people on board haven't noticed a thing.
Some of the potentially large economic impacts are not oil and gas but helium and urea. ca. 35% of world He supply comes from the Gulf and is currently blocked, urea is 25+%. Helium is critical in much technology, for instance the magnets in MRI machines are cooled with liquid He. I'm not a military historian or strategist but it appears Iran holds the "trump" card in this war with drones and the strait of Hormuz using simple scaling arguments in both physics and economics. It would only take a small number of successful drone attacks on shipping per month to keep the strait effectively closed. Drones that can take out ships will fit in space the size of a living room and be carried on "donkey carts". Iran can essentially blackmail the world economy with current technology. What would it take to stop this? A rough estimate is, at current prices, about $2B/day goes through the strait. We are spending $1-$2B/day on this war. The military effort to completely neutralize the drone (including submersible drones) threat would be on this order. Perhaps if it was $200M/day, a 10% "tax", the world would pay. But Iran could then offer safe passage for 1-2%. The current Iran demands, while extreme, make it clear there are people who can do simple math in Iran. Unfortunately basic math skills are in short supply in the Trump administration. Iran can suspend nuclear development so Trump can claim a win, but they probably understand they don't need nuclear weapons when they have drones and the strait.
Given the number of Iranian leaders in the top ranks killed, the current leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has an unprecedented opportunity to concentrate his power. Bear in mind, the initial bombing strikes killed his father, mother, wife, and son, it’s likely he’s motivated by revenge and retaliation and won’t be in the mood for peace talks anytime soon.
Does that linear extrapolation (10% oil price bump = 0.25% CPI bump, 0.3% GDP hit, therefore 50% oil price = 1.25% CPI and -1.5% GDP) really hold? I would think there may be a bunch of reinforcing second-order effects (eg, interest rates, cancelled investments, increased import costs from more afflicted countries, agricultural input prices) that would make the curve non-linear, maybe S-shaped. There will also be an expectations effect, which may trigger some wage inflation. If not resolved soon, I would guess the economic impact is worse than Noah projects.
I agree, way worse than what's being portrayed is the most likely outcome. We're way more globalized than before. There seems no way that this war wouldn't affect us far more negatively than in the 70s. Economists were weirdly wrong too negative on tariffs. I wouldn't be surprised if they're far too positive on this.
In my view, this war was absolutely necessary, but the way that the administration has handled the messaging and diplomatic side of it has been positively shambolic.
If the entity formerly known as Congress actually existed, at least there could have been a resolution like AUMF for Iraq, even though the people pushing for that war lied out of their butts and haven't left the US since, as they might end up in the dock at the Hague. They handed Iraq to the mullahs on a silver plate.
Honestly feels like if this war continues and oil prices stay elevated, India could easily lose around 100 bps of GDP growth. And for a country like ours every single percentage point matters a lot.
What is frustrating is that the US will probably be the least affected, while the rest of us absorb most of the damage. First we were pushed to stop buying from Venezuela, then Iran, then constantly criticized for buying Russian oil. At some point what exactly is the expectation? That large developing economies should run on goodwill alone?
Yes, renewable push is real and happening faster than before, but let’s be practical, we still depend heavily on oil and gas (and coal for power plants). That transition cannot happen overnight.
It just feels like US policy often ignores how much strain this creates for developing economies. Not just this administration, this has been consistent across US governments.
If China and India(and Europe) are being hit so hard by higher oil prices, couldn’t that cause pretty big problems for the world economy, including in the US?
This seems like the more likely response to me as we're WAY more globalized nowadays than in the 70s. Moreover, I don't $100 / barrel of gasoline may be the low end of where things end up.
Noah, I listened to an oil trader on Bloomberg the other day. He said that prices will stabilize as soon as demand destruction reaches the 20%, which is what the world lost from the Gulf.
Prices increase enough to cause people to use less. People likely stopped buying eggs and beef due to high prices. Now there really isn't a substitute for oil if you need gasoline. You can stay at home and postpone your trip.
China, which has half its personal transportation in EVs, is in better shape than the Americans. I expect a TACO in a few weeks at most. He will declare the war over, stating that he achieved his goals. Most Americans would agree if he destroyed the nuclear material or took it. If it still is there to be dug out and turned into a bomb, Iran will do so.
Iran is going to charge $2 million per ship to pass. That is enough to fund their nuclear desires.
Look for a bunch of Middle Eastern countries to get a bomb. I think it is possible that if Iran gets close to a nuclear weapon, Israel will drop a bomb on them. We're a couple of years away from that.
It would be deeply ironic if Trump's Iran war moves up the worldwide time table to full electrification by 2-3 years. Someone should look at the amount of electric vehicles sold in March vs. February.
https://www.autonews.com/byd/an-asia-ev-demand-surge-iran-conflict-0324/
Good guy Trump 5d chess to do an end run around the gas car lobby, I guess.
You are joking, but I could see this happening overseas faster than here in the US, just this week the Trump admin paid a company $1B to not continue with their wind farm expansions in the Atlantic and instead invest more in oil + gas... You can't make this stuff up.
Here in Hawaii, *inventory* of new electric and plug-in hybrid cars dropped considerably from mid-2025. We bought the next-to-last Nissan Leaf from the Nissan lot in Honolulu in April '25; but from September '25 onwards to Jan. '26 there was zero inventory--anything coming in was pre-purchased. We were told that Japan was making and shipping fewer EV's because of Trumpian policies.
So we bought a Prius plug-in in Jan. '26; again the next-to-last on the lot. Would've preferred another Leaf; but the Prius had to do.
Trump's hostility and illegal harassment of renewable energy projects has been disastrous for both car owners and electric utility ratepayers. If/when Dems get back in power, should there be similar reprisals against Trump's buddies in Big Oil?
You bought 2 new cars in <1 year?
The first was totaled by a twenty-year old in her Daddy's Tacoma. After we got the insurance money, we bought the Prius.
Sorry to hear that. Hopefully, the prius will work out.
Politicians always try to sell us the story that America is just the world's reluctant peacekeeper, only fighting when we absolutely have to. But if you look at our actual track record—from Vietnam to Iraq—it’s pretty obvious that's a lie. Leaders in Washington are just really good at making power grabs sound like noble fights for human rights, all while our wars end up killing hundreds of thousands of innocent, everyday people in the name of "freedom." The mendacity occurs regardless of which administration we have, imperial ambitions never die, only the people we purport to save. Poorer countries will suffer from our actions and for what, an illusion. There are no nukes in Iran there were no WMDs in Iraq and there was no domino that fell after Vietnam. When you stop and look at the sheer amount of death left behind, you realize our foreign policy isn't really about being the good guys; it's mostly just a giant machine that inflicts a massive amount of suffering to get what it wants.
There may be no nukes, but there's a hell of a lot of uranium enriched a hairs-breadth away from weapons-grade if the IAEA is to be believed.
Bibi has been saying for thirty years that Iran is just a week away from having nukes. It would be ironic if Chicken Little is now actually correct.
Meanwhile, eight *billion* people are now cursing Netanyahu's name for making their cooking fuel unaffordable.
please understand that this is a claim about how quickly a bomb could be made, if iran chose to do so, not a claim that iran has chosen to do so.
Understood.
But I'm deeply doubtful about what Bibi and Trump are saying in this regard, as both lie like pathological rugs. I've seen references to the Iranians having "*near* weapons grade" uranium. Which means what? That it might take further weeks/months/years to further refine it for bomb purposes?
my understanding is that the claim is narrowly accurate in the sense that if their uranium wasn't mostly buried in rubble it would be physically possible to enrich it to weapons-grade in a few weeks
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/iran-was-nowhere-close-to-a-nuclear-bomb-experts-say/
At least in Iran's case they fund a lot not nice people that do real harm in the region.
It's my sincere hope that American voters realize how the stumbles are self-inflicted, as Noah pointed out. Trump received a goldilocks economy with high employment and rapidly falling inflation near target levels... and then he screwed things up with tariffs and now the ill-conceived war on Iran (not to mention insanity like threatening to invade Greenland). Given Trump's strong disapproval from independents, it seems a lot of people are aware of this now, but I'm still bitter that so many decided to roll the dice and vote for him anyway. Harris would have continued the recovery just fine without the lunacy the whole world has to suffer from now.
2024 was the most brain dead checked out don’t give a shit that I have ever seen voters in this country. It’s like voters had collective amnesia and forgot all about the chaos of Trump’s first term and the fact that he tried to overturn the 2020 election.
Trump won't care about what happens to the European or UK economies. He enjoys seeing people suffering when he doesn't agree with their government's policies. And then he blames the policies for the suffering regardless of the evidence that it's probably not them but him that caused it. It's as if he sits down, thinks what the right thing would be to do in any given situation, then works out what the exact opposite of that would be in every conceivable respect, and does that. American contrariness combined with German precision.
Trump has always had somebody show up to clean up his messes when he does something stupid. His dad ponied up $500 million when Trump bankrupted his three casinos. Roy Cohn was there to sue or counter-sue all the small contractors Donny stiffed. Putin's Oligarchs funneled money to him via Deutsche Bank during the aughts when no other bank would touch him.
He and his GOP cronies have proven themselves to be a bunch of incompetent grifters who care only about cutting taxes for the Epstein class.
> So it’s worth asking why we’re doing this war at all.
Oh man, you are so unfair!
"That will simply reinforce the notion of America as a force for chaos — a bully who jumps in, smashes things up, and leaves others to deal with the consequences. It will be very hard to shake that reputation, even after Trump is out of office."
He was absolutely incensed 4 weeks ago when Bluesky Leftists said something similar.
So its treason then!
/s obviously
Vladimir Putin will not comment on whether Trump is or is not an active asset of the KGB (FSB).
The asymmetry is the real story here. The U.S. absorbs a 50% oil spike as a 1.25 point inflation bump. Countries that depend on those same corridors for food and fuel face shortages. Same shock, completely different system capacity to absorb it. How much of that resilience gap is structural versus just dollar privilege?
I don’t really get the “Iran’s government is as strong as ever!” Narrative. It feels like wishcasting. People started saying this literally on day one. “It’s been hours and the IRGC still hasn’t fully collapsed! *unbelievably smug face*
That article you linked was from March 12. If we were three years into a one week war that’d be fine, but that article is from one week into a barely over two week war, that was supposedly expected to last 4-5 weeks.
It’s disheartening that literally nobody seems capable of being honest about anything that’s going on. Everyone is still stuck in the “if I believe it then it’ll come true” phase.
Yep. American staying power isn’t worth much. All kinds of 1/4 and 1/2 measures everywhere.
Of course we will come out of the war O.K.; that's what we do. We sit on here our own, bordered by hitherto friendly neighbors, oceans away from our military adventures and inexhaustible proxy wars. Only the kids we send out to fight get killed and maimed. Our generals don't, and our leaders never do. But we kill a lot of other people, all around the world, in the name of freedom, and I can assure you, human nature being what it is, they never forget, and rarely, I suspect, ever forgive. Would we forget, much less forgive, if someone bombed our town, killing our children and neighbors? Really? America iis a young, incredibly fortunate place, but its lack a history hides the centuries of bloodshed mankind has endured. We have not had to live with the viceral consequences of the likes of the 30 Years War or the Taiping Rebellion, & etc. At least not yet. When we are done killing, we just hop on our planes' helicopters, and ships and come home to safety. The closest we've come was our Civil War war, and damned if we are not heading that way again, figuaratively if not literrally--largely because we didn't learn our lessons in that conflict, and half of the country has neither forgotten nor forgiven its losses nor taken responsibility for its causes. But then again, it appears that this is what we do. God have mercy on us (because no one else will).
Fine, you pass, get out of my creative writing class already.
Huh?
Well said. I'd only add one thing: everything you describe rests on the assumption that the asymmetry is permanent. That there will always be a safe home to fly back to, that no one out there will ever be strong enough to return the favor. History says otherwise. Power diffuses. It always has. And when it does, all those grievances won't have gone anywhere. People remember. Countries remember. That stuff compounds quietly in the background until the balance shifts. America is the single most powerful hegemon the world has ever seen. I don't think anyone seriously disputes that. But watching from the outside, it's hard not to see the pattern. This is what empires look like when they start lashing out in the early stages of decline. Not because they're weak yet, but because something has gone wrong internally and the response is to double down on aggression instead of fixing what's broken. The MAGA thing, the belligerence, the burning of alliances that took decades to build, the turning inward while simultaneously picking fights everywhere. The sun does eventually set on every empire.
And look, I don't wish decline on anyone. Honestly, the world does better when America does well. But big ships carry enormous momentum. Decades of accumulated goodwill, economic gravity, institutional weight. That's what makes this so dangerous. The ship is so massive that when someone nudges the wheel in the wrong direction, nobody on board even feels it. It's still moving, still looks fine, still feels like the same ship. But the heading has changed. Just a few degrees. And somewhere out there the iceberg is waiting, and by the time anyone spots it, a ship that size can't turn fast enough. The gears are already in motion and most people on board haven't noticed a thing.
Well said.
Some of the potentially large economic impacts are not oil and gas but helium and urea. ca. 35% of world He supply comes from the Gulf and is currently blocked, urea is 25+%. Helium is critical in much technology, for instance the magnets in MRI machines are cooled with liquid He. I'm not a military historian or strategist but it appears Iran holds the "trump" card in this war with drones and the strait of Hormuz using simple scaling arguments in both physics and economics. It would only take a small number of successful drone attacks on shipping per month to keep the strait effectively closed. Drones that can take out ships will fit in space the size of a living room and be carried on "donkey carts". Iran can essentially blackmail the world economy with current technology. What would it take to stop this? A rough estimate is, at current prices, about $2B/day goes through the strait. We are spending $1-$2B/day on this war. The military effort to completely neutralize the drone (including submersible drones) threat would be on this order. Perhaps if it was $200M/day, a 10% "tax", the world would pay. But Iran could then offer safe passage for 1-2%. The current Iran demands, while extreme, make it clear there are people who can do simple math in Iran. Unfortunately basic math skills are in short supply in the Trump administration. Iran can suspend nuclear development so Trump can claim a win, but they probably understand they don't need nuclear weapons when they have drones and the strait.
No natty, no helium. No supercooled helium, no chips. PRC is SOL. Taiwan is also, maybe some LNG transports can head there...
Given the number of Iranian leaders in the top ranks killed, the current leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has an unprecedented opportunity to concentrate his power. Bear in mind, the initial bombing strikes killed his father, mother, wife, and son, it’s likely he’s motivated by revenge and retaliation and won’t be in the mood for peace talks anytime soon.
Does that linear extrapolation (10% oil price bump = 0.25% CPI bump, 0.3% GDP hit, therefore 50% oil price = 1.25% CPI and -1.5% GDP) really hold? I would think there may be a bunch of reinforcing second-order effects (eg, interest rates, cancelled investments, increased import costs from more afflicted countries, agricultural input prices) that would make the curve non-linear, maybe S-shaped. There will also be an expectations effect, which may trigger some wage inflation. If not resolved soon, I would guess the economic impact is worse than Noah projects.
I agree, way worse than what's being portrayed is the most likely outcome. We're way more globalized than before. There seems no way that this war wouldn't affect us far more negatively than in the 70s. Economists were weirdly wrong too negative on tariffs. I wouldn't be surprised if they're far too positive on this.
If wonder if Larry Summers was trying to teach his girlfriend pattern matching when he made that graph.
In my view, this war was absolutely necessary, but the way that the administration has handled the messaging and diplomatic side of it has been positively shambolic.
If the entity formerly known as Congress actually existed, at least there could have been a resolution like AUMF for Iraq, even though the people pushing for that war lied out of their butts and haven't left the US since, as they might end up in the dock at the Hague. They handed Iraq to the mullahs on a silver plate.
Honestly feels like if this war continues and oil prices stay elevated, India could easily lose around 100 bps of GDP growth. And for a country like ours every single percentage point matters a lot.
What is frustrating is that the US will probably be the least affected, while the rest of us absorb most of the damage. First we were pushed to stop buying from Venezuela, then Iran, then constantly criticized for buying Russian oil. At some point what exactly is the expectation? That large developing economies should run on goodwill alone?
Yes, renewable push is real and happening faster than before, but let’s be practical, we still depend heavily on oil and gas (and coal for power plants). That transition cannot happen overnight.
It just feels like US policy often ignores how much strain this creates for developing economies. Not just this administration, this has been consistent across US governments.
If China and India(and Europe) are being hit so hard by higher oil prices, couldn’t that cause pretty big problems for the world economy, including in the US?
This seems like the more likely response to me as we're WAY more globalized nowadays than in the 70s. Moreover, I don't $100 / barrel of gasoline may be the low end of where things end up.
Noah, I listened to an oil trader on Bloomberg the other day. He said that prices will stabilize as soon as demand destruction reaches the 20%, which is what the world lost from the Gulf.
Prices increase enough to cause people to use less. People likely stopped buying eggs and beef due to high prices. Now there really isn't a substitute for oil if you need gasoline. You can stay at home and postpone your trip.
China, which has half its personal transportation in EVs, is in better shape than the Americans. I expect a TACO in a few weeks at most. He will declare the war over, stating that he achieved his goals. Most Americans would agree if he destroyed the nuclear material or took it. If it still is there to be dug out and turned into a bomb, Iran will do so.
Iran is going to charge $2 million per ship to pass. That is enough to fund their nuclear desires.
Look for a bunch of Middle Eastern countries to get a bomb. I think it is possible that if Iran gets close to a nuclear weapon, Israel will drop a bomb on them. We're a couple of years away from that.