This was an amazing series to read, I'd always be waiting for the emails to show up on my inbox, and every day I'd get one, I'd be waiting the entire day to finally lay on my bed and read it.
I'm from Bangladesh, and your first post was the first one I ever read from you, you made a young fan on that day.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on Bangladesh today, as a country with it's security forces sanctioned by the US, human rights watchdogs calling it out on a regular basis and the state of its reciepts as we suffer from a dollar shortage in the Banks. I'm hopeful we'll get through the problems soon enough, the people are definitely proven their resilience throughout our history.
Your posts on developing countries inspired me to do my own! I loved your post on Ghana. I'm a Ghanaian-American who writes about African nation's economic/historical development. I plan to do all of them. And plan to write a 2nd article about the last 10 years when 2022 economic data comes out:
Maybe I read too much sports but I couldn't help seeing this excellent analysis/list as a tournament bracket like NCAA March Madness -- where countries hypothetically vie to claim "most promising economy" of the moment. Is India the favorite? Can Indonesia spoil the party? ;-)
If you are going the resource-rich route, maybe you would consider one of the biggest puzzles of South America: Argentina. From hyper-inflation to a currency board to currently 95% inflation rate... Why?
Australia and NZ are puzzles to me (a NZer). Both are considered developed, but both are de-industrialized resource exporters that have been steadily losing manufacturing capacity to cheaper countries closer to markets. Are there Wile E Coyote moments in their futures?
Have you derived, maybe I should study more above, any fundamentals?
For example, China was able to leap ahead in developing its economy (pun intended), by purchasing state of the art Design, Engineering software, machine tools and processing equipment sparkling new, sophisticated and cutting edge. 20 years ago, I was at Foxconn where they demonstrated from 0 to design, analysis, tool paths and layout, tool build and production of cell phone cases in.. 6 days. Wow!
So one good fundamental is that developing countries can jump into the technology stream right where it is "current". No need to use old tech.
Second thought is, it seems the right path to be an insource nation, building those skills up with the aid the customer.
Third, how long and I think its rare, do these nations take to begin incubation of their own self-development of new compaines?
Interesting posts on how countries grow economically. May I suggest a contrarian post ? How about writing on what happened in oil producer country Venezuela ? From exporting electricity and gasoline among other thigs, gasoline as cement is now imported, electricity is rationed. Its a country that has reduced its agriculture and industrial output. Javier
In your look at states I hope you include NC. The GOP legislature incessantly puts out PR about creating an economic powerhouse via corporate tax cuts but the actual data shows us trailing the national average, the South East average and our neighboring states.
Harping on GDP overlooks the severe limitations of its meaning and use for comparisons, and overlooks roughly 40 years of alternative proposals. Check out the "Further Criticisms" section of the Wikipedia article on GDP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) for explanation.
Here's one that is more important: well being of children. The 2021 KIDS COUNT DATA BOOK: STATE TRENDS IN CHILD WELL-BEING (https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/aecf-2021kidscountdatabook-2021.pdf) puts NC at about the 30th rank for most aspects of child well-being. Overall, at rank 34 of 50.
You might also consider Gini Coefficient, where NC is significantly lower than the US as a whole.
We should be managing our nation for the benefit of the people, including the less well off. Not for abstract numbers that have little bearing on the real lives of people.
And what is the economy for? The goal is not to inflate some number that represents just a small part of the economy. The goal of an economy is to provide for the needs of people, and GDP doesn't measure that. It is a weak proxy for development.
1. Rankings based on surveys and indices of “attractiveness” do not contradict my comments which were based on GDP growth. The last time I pulled the data from the St Louis Fed on state level GDP (back in 2022) , my comments held true.
2. I would fully expect the Tax Foundation to be nothing but laudatory about the tax cuts.
3. We do have lots of in bound migration, including lots of retirees. NC is a nice place to live.
Again, I said underperformed compared to the country and nearby SE neighbors. We only outperformed VA during this period. The interim periods yield similar results. I have not pulled since I put this together.
Amazing series, Noah! I've shared it to a lot of people in government offices here in Colombia.
That's why I would recommend a post on Colombia! It's a pretty interesting case: the most stable macroeconomic growth in South America, the steadiest democracy in Latin American history, not one default or hyperinflation episode in a century, and while having a long standing civilian conflict in rural areas -besides the narco-terrorism in the 80s-.
Regardless, it has a meger growth compared to Chile, exports are way less diversified than Perú or México, poverty hasn't decreased as fast as in Brazil, and Argentina has stronger manufacturing sector even if you account for its chronic inflationary issues. Although Colombia has some key potential: a robust system of cities (77% aprox. of its population is urban), two oceans, a top notch independent central bank and economic institutions, a troubled but hopeful peace implementation process, etc.
In analyzing your excellent series of blog posts, it would be interesting to see the political, economic, and personal freedom profile of each country as well as how much of their output is sent to the US.
We literally charge nothing for access to the US market. We should use US market access as a sharp edge to inflict pain on Communist countries and to reward countries leaning toward any semblance of democratic reform.
Great work. Would you be interested in a study of tourism? Most of what I read simply talks of the direct economic effects - foreign exchange, jobs and all. I wonder about social effects. I’m also always uncomfortable about the need for continuing government spending required.
This was an amazing series to read, I'd always be waiting for the emails to show up on my inbox, and every day I'd get one, I'd be waiting the entire day to finally lay on my bed and read it.
I'm from Bangladesh, and your first post was the first one I ever read from you, you made a young fan on that day.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on Bangladesh today, as a country with it's security forces sanctioned by the US, human rights watchdogs calling it out on a regular basis and the state of its reciepts as we suffer from a dollar shortage in the Banks. I'm hopeful we'll get through the problems soon enough, the people are definitely proven their resilience throughout our history.
Oh wow, thanks!!
I will definitely write more about Bangladesh.
Your posts on developing countries inspired me to do my own! I loved your post on Ghana. I'm a Ghanaian-American who writes about African nation's economic/historical development. I plan to do all of them. And plan to write a 2nd article about the last 10 years when 2022 economic data comes out:
Gabon: https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/the-economy-and-history-of-gabon
Mozambique: https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/economic-and-geopolitical-history
Botswana: https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/botswanas-economy-in-nine-minutes
Ivory Coast: https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/history-of-cote-divoireivory-coast
Thanks!!
Added more that you might fund interesting:
Angola: https://yawboadu.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/113394819?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts
African resources & Commodity markets: https://yawboadu.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/118178521?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts
Central African Republic:
https://open.substack.com/pub/yawboadu/p/the-economic-history-of-central-african?r=garki&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Added more if you were curious (it also boosts my substack exposure haha):
Guinea, (also has French meddling):
https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/the-economics-and-geopolitics-of
Commodity Cycle's Affect on Africa & BRICS: https://yawboadu.substack.com/p/commodity-booms-and-busts-in-africa
A lot of work was put into this series and the next one looks valuable too.
Maybe I read too much sports but I couldn't help seeing this excellent analysis/list as a tournament bracket like NCAA March Madness -- where countries hypothetically vie to claim "most promising economy" of the moment. Is India the favorite? Can Indonesia spoil the party? ;-)
If you are going the resource-rich route, maybe you would consider one of the biggest puzzles of South America: Argentina. From hyper-inflation to a currency board to currently 95% inflation rate... Why?
Yep! I think I'll contrast it with Australia.
Australia and NZ are puzzles to me (a NZer). Both are considered developed, but both are de-industrialized resource exporters that have been steadily losing manufacturing capacity to cheaper countries closer to markets. Are there Wile E Coyote moments in their futures?
Very cool!
Have you derived, maybe I should study more above, any fundamentals?
For example, China was able to leap ahead in developing its economy (pun intended), by purchasing state of the art Design, Engineering software, machine tools and processing equipment sparkling new, sophisticated and cutting edge. 20 years ago, I was at Foxconn where they demonstrated from 0 to design, analysis, tool paths and layout, tool build and production of cell phone cases in.. 6 days. Wow!
So one good fundamental is that developing countries can jump into the technology stream right where it is "current". No need to use old tech.
Second thought is, it seems the right path to be an insource nation, building those skills up with the aid the customer.
Third, how long and I think its rare, do these nations take to begin incubation of their own self-development of new compaines?
The Chinese also stole a lot of tech as part of a strategy endorsed from the top down.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Nice. I'm old enough to enjoy your blog!!
Interesting posts on how countries grow economically. May I suggest a contrarian post ? How about writing on what happened in oil producer country Venezuela ? From exporting electricity and gasoline among other thigs, gasoline as cement is now imported, electricity is rationed. Its a country that has reduced its agriculture and industrial output. Javier
Yep I'll definitely write about it. I wrote about it quite a bit for Bloomberg, so I haven't circled back around recently, but I'm overdue...
With substantial energy reserves, the leadership has made Venezuela into a beggar state. It is a shame.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Wasn't there a Nigeria post?
Nope! That'll be in the series on resource exporters.
If only they had an aircraft carrier...
In your look at states I hope you include NC. The GOP legislature incessantly puts out PR about creating an economic powerhouse via corporate tax cuts but the actual data shows us trailing the national average, the South East average and our neighboring states.
Ooh yes, I'll definitely write about NC.
Hmmm, interesting comment and apparently at odds with reality.
The Tax Foundation offers a competent discussion of NC personal and corporate taxes and the results.
https://taxfoundation.org/north-carolina-tax-reform-2021/
NC continues to be the state with the most in-migration after only Florida and Texas that have no individual and corporate taxes.
Take a look and see what you think.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
As if tax cuts are the only possible change and cause of the fortunes of NC. As if GDP is the only thing to be concerned with. Lame.
The commenter mentioned tax cuts and I responded to that saying further on:
"Contrary to your assertions, NC is doing fine to great and a healthy tax environment has contributed to that prosperity."
Later the same commenter mentioned GDP and, I believe, got it wrong.
GDP is clearly not the only indicator of the economic health of a state, but it is pretty damn important.
You might mention one that is more important if you can conjure one up.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Harping on GDP overlooks the severe limitations of its meaning and use for comparisons, and overlooks roughly 40 years of alternative proposals. Check out the "Further Criticisms" section of the Wikipedia article on GDP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) for explanation.
Here's one that is more important: well being of children. The 2021 KIDS COUNT DATA BOOK: STATE TRENDS IN CHILD WELL-BEING (https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/aecf-2021kidscountdatabook-2021.pdf) puts NC at about the 30th rank for most aspects of child well-being. Overall, at rank 34 of 50.
You might also consider Gini Coefficient, where NC is significantly lower than the US as a whole.
We should be managing our nation for the benefit of the people, including the less well off. Not for abstract numbers that have little bearing on the real lives of people.
We were talking about the economy.
All that other stuff is great, if we were talking about any of that.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
And what is the economy for? The goal is not to inflate some number that represents just a small part of the economy. The goal of an economy is to provide for the needs of people, and GDP doesn't measure that. It is a weak proxy for development.
1. Rankings based on surveys and indices of “attractiveness” do not contradict my comments which were based on GDP growth. The last time I pulled the data from the St Louis Fed on state level GDP (back in 2022) , my comments held true.
2. I would fully expect the Tax Foundation to be nothing but laudatory about the tax cuts.
3. We do have lots of in bound migration, including lots of retirees. NC is a nice place to live.
I didn't say it was attractive.
Don't "expect" go read the article. I think it stands scrutiny.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
I read it. top to bottom.
Here's a link to the FRED NC GDP numbers. It sure doesn't look shabby.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCNGSP
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
2010-2020
US chained GDP. 117.7 index
NC chained GDP. 114.1 index
VA/TN/SC/GA chained GDP. 116.7 index.
Again, I said underperformed compared to the country and nearby SE neighbors. We only outperformed VA during this period. The interim periods yield similar results. I have not pulled since I put this together.
Very interesting. Are you planning to write something about the development story of Spain?
I hadn't planned on it, but maybe I could!
Amazing series, Noah! I've shared it to a lot of people in government offices here in Colombia.
That's why I would recommend a post on Colombia! It's a pretty interesting case: the most stable macroeconomic growth in South America, the steadiest democracy in Latin American history, not one default or hyperinflation episode in a century, and while having a long standing civilian conflict in rural areas -besides the narco-terrorism in the 80s-.
Regardless, it has a meger growth compared to Chile, exports are way less diversified than Perú or México, poverty hasn't decreased as fast as in Brazil, and Argentina has stronger manufacturing sector even if you account for its chronic inflationary issues. Although Colombia has some key potential: a robust system of cities (77% aprox. of its population is urban), two oceans, a top notch independent central bank and economic institutions, a troubled but hopeful peace implementation process, etc.
In analyzing your excellent series of blog posts, it would be interesting to see the political, economic, and personal freedom profile of each country as well as how much of their output is sent to the US.
We literally charge nothing for access to the US market. We should use US market access as a sharp edge to inflict pain on Communist countries and to reward countries leaning toward any semblance of democratic reform.
JLM
www.themusingsofthebigredcar.com
Great work. Would you be interested in a study of tourism? Most of what I read simply talks of the direct economic effects - foreign exchange, jobs and all. I wonder about social effects. I’m also always uncomfortable about the need for continuing government spending required.
I loved this series. I understand American authors are writing for an American audience.
But there's a big wide world out there!
This is an excellent series, and is the kind of work that keeps me a subscriber. I appreciate all the effort that went into them.
I'd buy this book