For over a year, my biggest worry about Trump coming back was a return of mass social unrest, but damn, I'm surprised at how little there's been so far. The Internet is certainly more fragmented, but I think the "enshittification" factor of the major platforms, where half your feed is filled with ads and junk you didn't ask for, is making people spend less time there. And when people spend less time there, there's less political fighting and cancel culture. So maybe it's a blessing in disguise.
Liberals seem to be reacting with despair rather than anger this time. We'll see if that holds. People may also be realizing that the tactics of the 2010s weren't effective and we need a different playbook.
I once had a Buddhist monk tell me that some Buddhist monks see Mao as a Buddhist saint because he "spread" Buddhism out of Tibet and around the world, which ultimately they view as a huge net positive. Obviously, there is a heavy dose of dark humor in there, given the human carnage Mao inflicted on Tibitaeans (among many others).
That is how I am trying to view the second Trump administration...
Maybe if they burn down some chunks of the government, it will be easier for someone competent to come in and fix it later. Who knows, maybe Trump will radically change zoning or something that is a fundamental problem in this country. Or maybe he will fuck some things up so badly that there will be a referendum in the next election that allows the next cycle of this roller coaster to actually fix fundamental issues that need fixing. Wild times, and I am just going to try to enjoy the dark hilarity.
The presumption of government as a neutral broker may not be so easy for someone to "fix later". But yes, Team Trump may sweep away some things that are preventing these agencies from being effective by pure dumb luck.
> I once had a Buddhist monk tell me that some Buddhist monks see Mao as a Buddhist saint because he "spread" Buddhism out of Tibet and around the world, which ultimately they view as a huge net positive.
This is a bit ironic since the traditional opinion on Buddhism in Tibet is that all the good stuff was from India. If you wrote something new yourself nobody would take it seriously, so you had to claim it was ancient Indian wisdom you found in a cave or your ancestors dictated it to you in a dream.
I think Christians could take some lessons from this perspective at the moment, since we now find ourselves in, as Aaron Renn says, "negative world" throughout the West.
Just a point on credit where credit is due on the COViD relief spending. Nancy Pelosi did that. The GOP was clueless and had no plan. Nancy saved the economy with an assist from Mnuchin who convinced Trump to sign on.
If Nancy had cared more about politics than the country—like the GOP typically does—she wouldn’t have passed a plan. Trump would be remembered for 25% percent unemployment and a depression. And we wouldn’t have electors a Republican for a generation.
Trump is the luckiest SOB that ever lived. He inherited Obama’s economy which kept humming along until COViD; Pelosi bailed him out on COViD; he was gone for the natural, worldwide inflationary effects of COViD; he comes back into office with an almost perfect economy which is better than any peer economy in the world.
I sometimes wonder if we are all just NPCs in a virtual reality game Trump’s playing as the main character (maybe Musk is multiplayer with him).
You missed "The planet muddles through because even Donald Trump cannot stop the momentum away from fossil fuels and living in new planned eco-communities is a way for some progressives to tune Trump out"
I was virtually at....let us just say an AI ethics conference and some of the participants agreed that it was almost better for the authoritarianism to be out in the open than their having to argue that it was concealed in AI systems and some of the very ideas of what an AGI is that are floating around. I worry that unrest will go down because people become fatalistic and convince themselves that America was always like this, it was only that some favored people could believe otherwise.
He probably left it out because it's not even in doubt anymore. Republicans will do nothing to stop renewable energy. All it takes to convince anyone of that is a drive across North Texas. I think the Republican position on EV subsidies is correct too. They have served their purpose and should be ended. EVs are now a profitable market segment and will soon be cheaper than gas powered cars. There's no stopping this transition.
People want to save money even more than they want to own the libs. If installing solar panels and driving an electric car (or electric SUV) means spending a lot less on the power bill and gas, even the most diehard MAGA is going to side with “lower my bills.”
Love that “hopefully the guy the country put in power continues to be a huge liar and is constrained by a ketamine-addicted Grima Wormtongue” is our optimistic case.
Naturally, this is purposefully positive, I get it. But it dismisses some of the damage Trump has already caused since the election, which can't be undone, and makes much of the positive outcomes in Noah's piece already more remote or out of reach.
For instance, the effect of his 25% tariff threat against Mexico and Canada is hard to overstate. It's causing enormous uncertainty across scores of industries, delaying or scuttling investment decisions throughout North America. For the governments of Mexico and Canada, it means contemplating the end of NAFTA, and a less optimal reorientation of their economies. Recall that NAFTA accession caused such a reorientation in the 90s, and long recessions in their industrial areas far deeper than anything the US has experienced since the Depression.
It's no surprise that the word of the week within international diplomatic circles among US allies is "Smoot-Hawley".
Yes, of course it is a negotiating tactic, but then again, those affected remember that Trump the First's 10% tariffs on steel and aluminum stayed in place, and created continuous dislocations and headaches in those industries and those they supply, especially within the US itself. Now that's in store potentially for all industries.
"I am altering the deal, pray that I don't alter it any further"
The biggest cost here is to US credibility, which underpins our world order. Trump the First negotiated NAFTA2, and Trump the Second is now abrogating it, reducing the value of negotiating with Trump at all, since the US demonstrably won't hold itself to any terms it agrees to.
One thing Noah didn't address is Trump's desire to take revenge on his opponents. Yes, it's possible it might not turn out to be as bad as he's threatening, but we don't know.
I think Musk killing Twitter is underrated. I was watching some election post mortems and many folks were surprised at how different the concerns of actual voters were from those streaking on X. You mean you care more about the price if eggs than the plight of marginalized neurodivergent Palestinian-Eskimo transgendered lesbians? How is that possible when that’s I all I see in my highly curated feed?
Twitter (OK, X) is in no way dying. Example: the President of the United States used it to announce his dropping out of contention for re-election. What is happening is that the totalitarians and the censors are leaving because they are no longer in change, and this is a good thing.
Wall Street wants to make money, no more, no less. They’re not motivated by a grand conspiracy to suppress speech they don’t like. If you think that’s their terminal goal, rather than $$$, you’re going to misunderstand what they’ll do.
I've always wondered why some liberal billionaire doesn't buy the loans from MS and strictly enforce all the covenants with the goal of seizing the collateral.
So, are you going to write a Black Friday post outlining the WORST case scenario?
A lot of these items feel deeply unlikely - Trump probably isn't smart or savvy enough to pull off the Ukraine resolution you described, and tax cuts for the wealthy which will increase the deficit are something the Republicans are committed to regardless of consequences - but I do feel like some of these, like moderation on abortion, are reasonably likely. Thanks for the holiday cheer!
Something that gives me perverse hope is that the movement of Latinos, Asians and at a smaller margin blacks into the persuadable voters category means a lot of the people Republicans are picking on are like genuinely marginalized people who will probably be picked on in any system.
And like this is very scary for me, I’m one of those people along a variety of dimensions and even worse for some people I love but it’s probably not going to amount to a cause of democracy falling apart and the best way to ameliorate this may be more personal mutual aid work than political resistance.
One of your optimistic takes is that the economy keeps chugging along without a recession. Certainly possible. But one of my concerns for the economy is that there are bubbles in AI stock valuations and/or Crypto. Neither of these approaches the size of the housing bubble, but either could trigger a wider crisis of confidence. We shall see.
Noah, you're an excellent writer, and a number of your recent pieces have shown an impressive ability to synthesize material that I've seldom seen before. With that in mind, I'd love to see you tackle the question of 'how to minimize Trump's damage'?
e.g. synthesize some game theory, political theory, and psychoanalysis
Suggestions would be like:
- play up consequences, but make it real for people (e.g. tariffs will make food 15% more expensive, photos of what Russia conquering Kiev could look like, Trump looking like a loser in every scenario)
- play for time (he will get weaker with time, over time make mistakes)
- use his weaknesses (determine break points, annoy him, make him make mistakes, seize those opportunities)
- encourage US governors and big city mayors to work with US allies to try to mitigate damage to trade and the North American economy
- try to influence those who influence him, like Musk, to get something positive done (your idea of having Musk tackle the defence procurement process is a fantastic one, probably plays better to Musk's strengths than his overarching DOGE aims)
Great note! Couple more things: Trump has made a few great appointments. Treasury Secretary, Energy Secretary, Department of the Interior. There is no power without energy power and we are about to enter an “all of the above” energy policy where we recognize that we need all the energy sources we have - renewable (including nuclear) and fossil fuel - to power our way out of the mountain of debt that impairs private sector growth and compromises our defense capability.
Also, lateral thinking. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a good idea and Senator Lummis’s legislation stands a good chance of becoming law. We can kickstart it by monetizing the market to market value of the gold held at $42 in the Fed system. It would give us around $700 billion down payment on Lummis’ $1T initial purchase.
For over a year, my biggest worry about Trump coming back was a return of mass social unrest, but damn, I'm surprised at how little there's been so far. The Internet is certainly more fragmented, but I think the "enshittification" factor of the major platforms, where half your feed is filled with ads and junk you didn't ask for, is making people spend less time there. And when people spend less time there, there's less political fighting and cancel culture. So maybe it's a blessing in disguise.
Liberals seem to be reacting with despair rather than anger this time. We'll see if that holds. People may also be realizing that the tactics of the 2010s weren't effective and we need a different playbook.
I like your optimism :)
I once had a Buddhist monk tell me that some Buddhist monks see Mao as a Buddhist saint because he "spread" Buddhism out of Tibet and around the world, which ultimately they view as a huge net positive. Obviously, there is a heavy dose of dark humor in there, given the human carnage Mao inflicted on Tibitaeans (among many others).
That is how I am trying to view the second Trump administration...
Maybe if they burn down some chunks of the government, it will be easier for someone competent to come in and fix it later. Who knows, maybe Trump will radically change zoning or something that is a fundamental problem in this country. Or maybe he will fuck some things up so badly that there will be a referendum in the next election that allows the next cycle of this roller coaster to actually fix fundamental issues that need fixing. Wild times, and I am just going to try to enjoy the dark hilarity.
The presumption of government as a neutral broker may not be so easy for someone to "fix later". But yes, Team Trump may sweep away some things that are preventing these agencies from being effective by pure dumb luck.
Totally agree, I think that is where my optimism is mixed in with thoughts and prayers :)
> I once had a Buddhist monk tell me that some Buddhist monks see Mao as a Buddhist saint because he "spread" Buddhism out of Tibet and around the world, which ultimately they view as a huge net positive.
This is a bit ironic since the traditional opinion on Buddhism in Tibet is that all the good stuff was from India. If you wrote something new yourself nobody would take it seriously, so you had to claim it was ancient Indian wisdom you found in a cave or your ancestors dictated it to you in a dream.
I think Christians could take some lessons from this perspective at the moment, since we now find ourselves in, as Aaron Renn says, "negative world" throughout the West.
Just a point on credit where credit is due on the COViD relief spending. Nancy Pelosi did that. The GOP was clueless and had no plan. Nancy saved the economy with an assist from Mnuchin who convinced Trump to sign on.
If Nancy had cared more about politics than the country—like the GOP typically does—she wouldn’t have passed a plan. Trump would be remembered for 25% percent unemployment and a depression. And we wouldn’t have electors a Republican for a generation.
Trump is the luckiest SOB that ever lived. He inherited Obama’s economy which kept humming along until COViD; Pelosi bailed him out on COViD; he was gone for the natural, worldwide inflationary effects of COViD; he comes back into office with an almost perfect economy which is better than any peer economy in the world.
I sometimes wonder if we are all just NPCs in a virtual reality game Trump’s playing as the main character (maybe Musk is multiplayer with him).
Steve Mnuchin, Trump's Treasury Secretary, was one of the principal architects of the CARES Act, working closely with Pelosi.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/steve-mnuchin-goodbye-you-were-good-actually.html
You missed "The planet muddles through because even Donald Trump cannot stop the momentum away from fossil fuels and living in new planned eco-communities is a way for some progressives to tune Trump out"
I was virtually at....let us just say an AI ethics conference and some of the participants agreed that it was almost better for the authoritarianism to be out in the open than their having to argue that it was concealed in AI systems and some of the very ideas of what an AGI is that are floating around. I worry that unrest will go down because people become fatalistic and convince themselves that America was always like this, it was only that some favored people could believe otherwise.
He probably left it out because it's not even in doubt anymore. Republicans will do nothing to stop renewable energy. All it takes to convince anyone of that is a drive across North Texas. I think the Republican position on EV subsidies is correct too. They have served their purpose and should be ended. EVs are now a profitable market segment and will soon be cheaper than gas powered cars. There's no stopping this transition.
People want to save money even more than they want to own the libs. If installing solar panels and driving an electric car (or electric SUV) means spending a lot less on the power bill and gas, even the most diehard MAGA is going to side with “lower my bills.”
We have a PHEV and we spend less each month - and have a nicer and faster car - than its ICE predecessor. At some point, the new shit is just better.
That gives entirely new perspective on Elon Musk claiming that the people who move from California to Texas have gone completely Texas native.
Are there eco-communities being planned at scale in the US? I always wondered why these have never been even piloted in Canada.
I don't know
I suspect an intemperate winter is a big factor...
“Government overspending is what creates inflation” - Elon Musk
Interesting how “government overspending”, a phrase that is ubiquitous in politics, can mean two very different things:
- government spending based on borrowed money (or borrowed money past a particular percent of GDP or past what market participants approve of)
- government spending on stuff I don’t want them to spend on to that extent or at all
The implications, justifications and potential remedies really depend on which one you’re referring to.
Love that “hopefully the guy the country put in power continues to be a huge liar and is constrained by a ketamine-addicted Grima Wormtongue” is our optimistic case.
Well, elections have consequences!!
Naturally, this is purposefully positive, I get it. But it dismisses some of the damage Trump has already caused since the election, which can't be undone, and makes much of the positive outcomes in Noah's piece already more remote or out of reach.
For instance, the effect of his 25% tariff threat against Mexico and Canada is hard to overstate. It's causing enormous uncertainty across scores of industries, delaying or scuttling investment decisions throughout North America. For the governments of Mexico and Canada, it means contemplating the end of NAFTA, and a less optimal reorientation of their economies. Recall that NAFTA accession caused such a reorientation in the 90s, and long recessions in their industrial areas far deeper than anything the US has experienced since the Depression.
It's no surprise that the word of the week within international diplomatic circles among US allies is "Smoot-Hawley".
Yes, of course it is a negotiating tactic, but then again, those affected remember that Trump the First's 10% tariffs on steel and aluminum stayed in place, and created continuous dislocations and headaches in those industries and those they supply, especially within the US itself. Now that's in store potentially for all industries.
"I am altering the deal, pray that I don't alter it any further"
The biggest cost here is to US credibility, which underpins our world order. Trump the First negotiated NAFTA2, and Trump the Second is now abrogating it, reducing the value of negotiating with Trump at all, since the US demonstrably won't hold itself to any terms it agrees to.
One thing Noah didn't address is Trump's desire to take revenge on his opponents. Yes, it's possible it might not turn out to be as bad as he's threatening, but we don't know.
Patel at the FBI is a *really* bad sign
I think Musk killing Twitter is underrated. I was watching some election post mortems and many folks were surprised at how different the concerns of actual voters were from those streaking on X. You mean you care more about the price if eggs than the plight of marginalized neurodivergent Palestinian-Eskimo transgendered lesbians? How is that possible when that’s I all I see in my highly curated feed?
Musk did not "kill" Twitter, Musk liberated it from its previous censorious regime.
It was dying anyway. It's just not a good form factor for social media.
Twitter (OK, X) is in no way dying. Example: the President of the United States used it to announce his dropping out of contention for re-election. What is happening is that the totalitarians and the censors are leaving because they are no longer in change, and this is a good thing.
Morgan Stanley can’t sell the loans they underwrote to Elon for the purchase. It was, IIRC, $13B of debt against a previously $44B company.
That implies a valuation from the credit markets of less than $13B, which is to say Wall Street considers Elon to have made Twitter insolvent.
He got a lot (of political influence) for this so maybe it was worth it for him, but it’s not at all an unqualified success.
Yes, Wall Street fully sides with the totalitarians who want to destroy the free speech that Musk brought to Twitter/X. No surprise there at all.
Wall Street wants to make money, no more, no less. They’re not motivated by a grand conspiracy to suppress speech they don’t like. If you think that’s their terminal goal, rather than $$$, you’re going to misunderstand what they’ll do.
I've always wondered why some liberal billionaire doesn't buy the loans from MS and strictly enforce all the covenants with the goal of seizing the collateral.
Twitter isn't dying, it's just catching up to mySpace!
So, are you going to write a Black Friday post outlining the WORST case scenario?
A lot of these items feel deeply unlikely - Trump probably isn't smart or savvy enough to pull off the Ukraine resolution you described, and tax cuts for the wealthy which will increase the deficit are something the Republicans are committed to regardless of consequences - but I do feel like some of these, like moderation on abortion, are reasonably likely. Thanks for the holiday cheer!
I will definitely outline some worst-case scenarios, but my blog has done a lot of that already.
Something that gives me perverse hope is that the movement of Latinos, Asians and at a smaller margin blacks into the persuadable voters category means a lot of the people Republicans are picking on are like genuinely marginalized people who will probably be picked on in any system.
And like this is very scary for me, I’m one of those people along a variety of dimensions and even worse for some people I love but it’s probably not going to amount to a cause of democracy falling apart and the best way to ameliorate this may be more personal mutual aid work than political resistance.
A wonderful piece to light a candle of hope in the dark night of our misery.
Thanksgiving to you
One of your optimistic takes is that the economy keeps chugging along without a recession. Certainly possible. But one of my concerns for the economy is that there are bubbles in AI stock valuations and/or Crypto. Neither of these approaches the size of the housing bubble, but either could trigger a wider crisis of confidence. We shall see.
Nothing the Fed can't take care of. It did so with the COVID recession.
Noah, you're an excellent writer, and a number of your recent pieces have shown an impressive ability to synthesize material that I've seldom seen before. With that in mind, I'd love to see you tackle the question of 'how to minimize Trump's damage'?
e.g. synthesize some game theory, political theory, and psychoanalysis
Suggestions would be like:
- play up consequences, but make it real for people (e.g. tariffs will make food 15% more expensive, photos of what Russia conquering Kiev could look like, Trump looking like a loser in every scenario)
- play for time (he will get weaker with time, over time make mistakes)
- use his weaknesses (determine break points, annoy him, make him make mistakes, seize those opportunities)
- encourage US governors and big city mayors to work with US allies to try to mitigate damage to trade and the North American economy
- try to influence those who influence him, like Musk, to get something positive done (your idea of having Musk tackle the defence procurement process is a fantastic one, probably plays better to Musk's strengths than his overarching DOGE aims)
I wish I had more ideas about how to do this...
Noah, if one day I can't get to your blog, I'll start to worry.
Great note! Couple more things: Trump has made a few great appointments. Treasury Secretary, Energy Secretary, Department of the Interior. There is no power without energy power and we are about to enter an “all of the above” energy policy where we recognize that we need all the energy sources we have - renewable (including nuclear) and fossil fuel - to power our way out of the mountain of debt that impairs private sector growth and compromises our defense capability.
Also, lateral thinking. The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a good idea and Senator Lummis’s legislation stands a good chance of becoming law. We can kickstart it by monetizing the market to market value of the gold held at $42 in the Fed system. It would give us around $700 billion down payment on Lummis’ $1T initial purchase.