The alternate reality of RFK and the antivaxers

Human consensus versus the laws of the Universe.

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“Do you believe/ In what you see/ There doesn't seem to be anybody else who agrees with me” — Zero 7

Elections have consequences. And it seems likely that one of the consequences of the 2024 election is that the U.S. government will become less supportive of vaccination. RFK Jr., Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, has been a notorious vaccine opponent for many years. This is from Jeffrey Flier in The Free Press:

For decades, RFK Jr. has been a vocal advocate of the anti-vaccine movement. He was founder and chair of Children’s Health Defense, an organization that campaigns against childhood vaccinations whose beneficial effects on children’s health are firmly established. 

Most remarkable among his repeated claims is that childhood vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella has caused the increase in autism. Just last year he said on Fox News: “I do believe that autism does come from vaccines.” This is long after the 1998 paper that advanced the idea was retracted as fraudulent in 2010. The author of the paper has been stripped of his medical license.

And many articles recount how RFK Jr. convinced many Samoans of his antivax ideas during a measles outbreak there in 2019, probably leading to a greater number of deaths. Now RFK Jr. is tapping various antivax types to help him staff Trump’s HHS. Meanwhile, Dave Weldon, Trump’s appointee to head the CDC, had had some antivax ideas of his own. And various prominent Trump supporters, like hedge fund mogul Bill Ackman, are also publicly skeptical of vaccination.

Despite the Covid vaccines being the crowning achievement of Trump’s first term in office, distrust of vaccines has now become a core part of the Trumpian ideology and movement. How much that will actually affect Americans’ access to vaccines is still unknown. Madison Czopek writes:

Vaccine law and policy experts told PolitiFact that Kennedy couldn’t unilaterally ban vaccines and that any effort to ban vaccines would probably face a legal battle. But Kennedy could still reduce how accessible they are for Americans, they said. And some of his power rests on whether Trump’s administration can get buy-in from other lawmakers and public health leaders, some of whom Trump could also appoint.

Kennedy could have those people act to limit vaccine access by revoking vaccines’ licenses or directing the CDC to change its vaccine messaging and recommendations, which would affect insurance coverage and medical practice[.]

Axios has more details on what RFK Jr. might do to inhibit vaccination in America. On a positive note, I would point out that Trump’s selection for Deputy HHS Secretary, Jim O’Neill, is very reasonable on the topic of vaccines. So I’m hopeful the institutional damage won’t be too bad.

Anyway, at this point I could write a soaring denunciation of the antivax movement, declaring it to be atavistic barbarism, lauding vaccines as the glory of scientific modernity, exhaustively listing study after study showing that vaccines are safe and effective, and warning darkly of the tragedies that will befall our society if we substitute New Age religion for science. And all that would be very true, and perfectly appropriate.

Instead, though, I feel like writing a fun meditation on the eternal war between cold hard reality and human social consensus.

Extant reality vs. tribal reality

Most of us think of reality as being extant in the world around us — that is, it doesn’t matter what we think or believe about reality, it just is there, and we have to deal with it. For example, my coffee table is extant — I can choose not to believe in it, but then I’ll bang my knee on it. I don’t like banging my knee, it hurts! So it behooves me to believe that the coffee table is just there, independent of any of my thoughts and feelings.¹

But there are some situations where believing something is useful for reasons that have nothing to do with whether it’s real or not. For example, take belief in the afterlife. Even if the afterlife never exists, it may behoove you to believe in it. The belief may comfort you and motivate you throughout your lifetime.

An interesting case is when beliefs help to cement the unity of social groups. Having everyone in a group believe the same thing, even if its factually wrong, might enhance cohesiveness and cooperation within that group. Alternatively, believing something in the face of evidence might be a costly signal that could help people prove their loyalty to the group.