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Henry Cunha's avatar

But overall I think that Russia is the major power that has become most vulnerable as the result of the developments of the last few years. It sits between two large economic powers, the EU and China. The EU is launching accession talks with Ukraine, and is distancing itself from dependence on Russian supplies. NATO is enlarged, and Ukraine won't be far behind, probably impelled the most by Poland and Turkey, which border on Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia has become economically totally dependent on China, and if China becomes more aggressive in East Asia, supplies to Russia will diminish. Extreme Russian weakness in its far east will open the door for China to reestablish hegemony over the only Chinese territory which was ceded to western powers and never recovered. When there is talk about Chinese "humiliation," people forget this, but I'm sure China really doesn't.

In central Asia, it's the same story. Russia will lose influence relative to China.

A section of the American foreign policy establishment, and of the European, correctly diagnosed that it was in Russia's best interest to maintain a positive relationship with the West to counterbalance its weakness elsewhere. Putin chose otherwise, unwisely. Most ethnic Russians are socially, culturally, and economically, Westerners with a capital "W."

There is no viable Russian success possible in this aggression against Ukraine. It never made sense in the larger context of the total Russian geopolitical exposure, and I don't think it will last beyond Putin.

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Lele's avatar

It’s the „Baltic Sea“ that Putin would get access to via the Baltic States. Not the „Black sea“

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