The economists' skepticism on AI growth might be the most interesting data point in this whole roundup. The gap between capability forecasts (where all groups agree) and economic impact forecasts (where they diverge) is basically telling us we're in the Solow Paradox again. Every GPT follows this pattern: impressive tech, bolted onto existing workflows, disappointing macro numbers, then decades of institutional redesign before the real payoff. I wrote a longer take here: https://noahpinionot.substack.com/p/you-can-see-ai-everywhere-except
If you're interested in conversations about AI biosecurity, Joe Betts-LaCroix of Retro Bio in Redwood City might be a good resource if he has the time. He has extensive experience in computer science, biology, and now AI, as Retro Bio has a special partnership with Open AI. I don't know if he has much experience in virology, but any conversation with him would be fascinating.
The AI effects on vulnerability finding are mostly a good thing. The AI being used to find vulnerabilities will result in fewer vulnerabilities being there to be found and hence fewer attacks happening. Vulnerabilities show up in a 1/x distribution over time so skipping ahead a couple decades is on net a good thing even though right now it's a bit of a python swallowing a horse.
As for AI in quantitative strategies, they're already dominating there and have been for years. You don't hear about it because quants are very secretive about their strategies.
“The use of AI in the Iran war has come under scrutiny. The Pentagon has refused to say whether or not artificial intelligence was used in the Feb. 28 bombing of an elementary school in Iran that killed 175 people, many of them children.”
Garbage in garbage out. Outdated data used to train AI models was the direct cause of two missiles that targeted and destroyed two schools in Iran, killing hundreds of children and their teachers who made the fatal mistake of going to school.
What would be the reaction if terrorists bombed two elementary schools in the U.S., killing all the children and their teachers?
America is now a country with the Big Tech Bros Musk, Steve Davis, and DOGE High Tech babies killing hundreds of thousands of people, via preventable deaths, by dismantling USAID. Lest we forget, Marc Rubio signed off on this administrative genocide, which is projected to kill as many as 14 million people — one-third of them children — by the end of 2030. That this doesn’t even merit current mainstream news cycles speaks volumes about the moral rot of America.
Today, millions of Americans will attend Easter Sunday services at thousands of churches, blissfully unaware or uncaring about their country’s administrative genocide.
And the mainstream headlines will tout Elon Musk’s potential to become the world’s first trillionaire via the SpaceX IPO. Musk is the architect of the dismantling of USAID, and administrative genocide, which he found funny, posting: “We could have gone to parties this weekend. Instead we tossed USAID into the wood chipper.” According to witnesses, DOGE High Tech baby, Luke Ferritor, giggled over his keyboard as he dismantled USAID.
Most of these DOGE operatives are embedded in the federal government and on the payroll.
Rest assured that on Easter Sunday your tax dollars are at work killing hundreds of thousands of children. Apparently, Musk, Sam Altman, et alia are happy at their work, building “God in a box.”
so is Tuesday the day the US commits a new set of war crimes and bombs civilian energy facilities in Iran for a war we are losing or is that gong to be for when he is even more desperate? Stay tuned.
The two reforms we need to channel trading towards valuable activities (price discovery, and the hedging of risks), rather than pure zero-sum rent-seeking, are a small Tobin tax (say, 0.1% on each transaction) and quantization of trade times to something reasonably large compared to how fast computers can now operate. So, rather than everything operating in real-time, the market is a series of reverse auctions that end, say, every minute. There still might be SOME room for mischief with bids being slipped in during the last few milliseconds of an auction period, but if bids aren't public until the auction settles, this is probably OK.
Noah: In general I'm a big fan. But here is a good example of why critics who accuse folks like you of hyping AI have a point:
You write "The “moderate” scenario here would have AI able to write high-quality novels, handle coding tasks that would take humans five days, create semi-autonomous labs, and use robots to perform basic household tasks. ... Why do economists think that even near-godlike AI wouldn’t translate into fast growth?"
The idea that the ability to write "high quality novels," create semi-autonomous labs, and perform basic household tasks is remotely "godlike" is absurd.
The economists' skepticism on AI growth might be the most interesting data point in this whole roundup. The gap between capability forecasts (where all groups agree) and economic impact forecasts (where they diverge) is basically telling us we're in the Solow Paradox again. Every GPT follows this pattern: impressive tech, bolted onto existing workflows, disappointing macro numbers, then decades of institutional redesign before the real payoff. I wrote a longer take here: https://noahpinionot.substack.com/p/you-can-see-ai-everywhere-except
In frank Herbert due novel's it is a sin to create a machine in imitation of a human soul.
Same in the Warhammer 40k universe. There the machines have their own spirits that you have to pray to. Blessings of the Omnissiah. 🙏
If you're interested in conversations about AI biosecurity, Joe Betts-LaCroix of Retro Bio in Redwood City might be a good resource if he has the time. He has extensive experience in computer science, biology, and now AI, as Retro Bio has a special partnership with Open AI. I don't know if he has much experience in virology, but any conversation with him would be fascinating.
The AI effects on vulnerability finding are mostly a good thing. The AI being used to find vulnerabilities will result in fewer vulnerabilities being there to be found and hence fewer attacks happening. Vulnerabilities show up in a 1/x distribution over time so skipping ahead a couple decades is on net a good thing even though right now it's a bit of a python swallowing a horse.
As for AI in quantitative strategies, they're already dominating there and have been for years. You don't hear about it because quants are very secretive about their strategies.
“The use of AI in the Iran war has come under scrutiny. The Pentagon has refused to say whether or not artificial intelligence was used in the Feb. 28 bombing of an elementary school in Iran that killed 175 people, many of them children.”
Garbage in garbage out. Outdated data used to train AI models was the direct cause of two missiles that targeted and destroyed two schools in Iran, killing hundreds of children and their teachers who made the fatal mistake of going to school.
What would be the reaction if terrorists bombed two elementary schools in the U.S., killing all the children and their teachers?
America is now a country with the Big Tech Bros Musk, Steve Davis, and DOGE High Tech babies killing hundreds of thousands of people, via preventable deaths, by dismantling USAID. Lest we forget, Marc Rubio signed off on this administrative genocide, which is projected to kill as many as 14 million people — one-third of them children — by the end of 2030. That this doesn’t even merit current mainstream news cycles speaks volumes about the moral rot of America.
Today, millions of Americans will attend Easter Sunday services at thousands of churches, blissfully unaware or uncaring about their country’s administrative genocide.
And the mainstream headlines will tout Elon Musk’s potential to become the world’s first trillionaire via the SpaceX IPO. Musk is the architect of the dismantling of USAID, and administrative genocide, which he found funny, posting: “We could have gone to parties this weekend. Instead we tossed USAID into the wood chipper.” According to witnesses, DOGE High Tech baby, Luke Ferritor, giggled over his keyboard as he dismantled USAID.
Most of these DOGE operatives are embedded in the federal government and on the payroll.
Rest assured that on Easter Sunday your tax dollars are at work killing hundreds of thousands of children. Apparently, Musk, Sam Altman, et alia are happy at their work, building “God in a box.”
so is Tuesday the day the US commits a new set of war crimes and bombs civilian energy facilities in Iran for a war we are losing or is that gong to be for when he is even more desperate? Stay tuned.
Why is the podcast over? Its the only reason i first found economics interesting / understood anything about it.
The two reforms we need to channel trading towards valuable activities (price discovery, and the hedging of risks), rather than pure zero-sum rent-seeking, are a small Tobin tax (say, 0.1% on each transaction) and quantization of trade times to something reasonably large compared to how fast computers can now operate. So, rather than everything operating in real-time, the market is a series of reverse auctions that end, say, every minute. There still might be SOME room for mischief with bids being slipped in during the last few milliseconds of an auction period, but if bids aren't public until the auction settles, this is probably OK.
Noah: In general I'm a big fan. But here is a good example of why critics who accuse folks like you of hyping AI have a point:
You write "The “moderate” scenario here would have AI able to write high-quality novels, handle coding tasks that would take humans five days, create semi-autonomous labs, and use robots to perform basic household tasks. ... Why do economists think that even near-godlike AI wouldn’t translate into fast growth?"
The idea that the ability to write "high quality novels," create semi-autonomous labs, and perform basic household tasks is remotely "godlike" is absurd.