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"At its core, I feel like degrowth’s appeal comes from its implicit promise to recast genteel North European decline as some sort of grandiose world-saving moral quest."

This implies that the basic motivation of the degrowth movement is white-saviorism, or something like it, but I think it's much more basic than that: it comes from people feeling moral outrage at consumption and wealth and even just fun, and rejecting the idea that any big social problem could be solved without someone being made to repent. To degrowthers, "our current standard of living is unsustainable, so let's find technological improvements that will allow us to maintain it sustainably" is a morally repugnant line of thinking. I think degrowth most often comes from the same spirit in leftism that proposes "reckoning with" structural and historical forces, in the same way one would propose an actual policy, as though "a societal reckoning" were a policy you could implement. It's very much in keeping with your theory of wokeness as Protestantism.

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I think you're giving the degrowth more credit than it is due, nonetheless this a superb piece that knocks it down thoroughly

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Something I would hope degrowthers can agree with: we want to increase human flourishing while decreasing emissions and waste. Another thing I hope they can agree with: GDP is not the same thing as either flourishing or waste. Historically, GDP was couple to both flourishing and waste. Conventional green growthers say we should decouple GDP from waste. Degrowthers say we should decouple flourishing from GDP. They don’t have a good case for why that decoupling is easier than the other, given that we have years of data showing one decoupling happening but none for the other (yet). Probably some of that second decoupling is possible too. But really all that matters is decoupling flourishing from waste - let GDP go whichever way it goes.

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In the first extended section of the article you say that de-growth won't work because people in rich countries won't give up their SUV's, beef, large homes etc (In other words the goods they consume) for the good of the planet, nor will people in poor countries be willing to remain poor without any of the consumer goods that people in wealthier countries have simply for the good of the planet.

Then in the second part of your article you suddenly completely pivot to the opposite point of view and say that people will happily give up their consumer products (thus effectively making them all poorer) so that a lot of economic production can be transferring from producing consumer goods to producing green infrastructure for the good of the planet.

You really have to make your mind up about this one way or the other- do you think people will give up consumer goods and some of their quality of life for the good of the planet or not?

You can't have it both ways.

Governments forcing a transition to a greener economy still makes a lot of sense but I think you need to think out your arguments again to be more consistent.

Think that those who study the growth of the Chinese economy

(including all those many coal plants they plan to construct),

the Chinese workers working in sweatshops,

the Australians and others who supply China with resources,

the many countries touched by China's Belt and Road initiative and other China watchers would be surprised by the claim that China

is growing it's economy in a newer, greener, less resource dependent way than did the current developed countries.

And although you think little of Northern Europeans' concern for the environmental devastation humans are creating on this planet perhaps you might spare a thought for the many, many people in poorer countries who are very concerned about the impact humans are having on the planet.

You don't think that people in Bangladesh worried about sea level rise or farmers in Ethiopia, Syria or India struggling to survive because of drought or residents of large cities in India, China, etc dealing with horrendous air pollution don't worry about the impacts humans have on the environment.

Plus, even those many young people in poorer countries not currently greatly effected by environmental damage almost all have access to smart phones and the internet and are very likely very aware of climate change and other environmental issues.

Remember seeing a quote from a man in China who said about China, "Our air is polluted. Our soil is polluted. Our water is polluted. In ten years we will all have cancer".

So yes people in poorer countries don't want to stay poor forever for the good off the planet but to suggest that it is only rich, privileged, head in the clouds Northern Europeans who are concerned enough about climate change to support efforts to do something about it is nonsense and ignores the fact that climate change most hurts those who are the least privileged and also is a bit patronizing towards people in less wealthy countries who believe or not do have a connection to the internet and do have some idea of the impact climate change is having on the world.

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This is typical short-term economist thinking. You say that past trends can't predict future trends, but then assume that because growth has been achieved via reducing resource consumption that growth can continue forever without demanding more resources. You cannot keep increasing efficiency infinitely.

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"All of this requires planning. Lots of planning!"

Albert Einstein told us in 1949 that capitalism is inherently evil. I believe a few others of significance throughout history have reached the same conclusion. His solution was socialism or "social planning." Lots of it.

And we can't do this while we compete with others. We have to collaborate and coordinate with each other by ending our predatory phase of capitalism.

As Noah mentioned, we have different countries at different levels. We have some countries with lots of resources and others with little resources. So this planning needs to be global, and we can't accomplish that if we are trying to conquer other countries.

Degrowthers have a point in that growth demanded by Wall Street analysts might be great for investors, but are they good for the planet, workers, etc.?

And economists have allowed "externality costs" to be absorbed by society. We need to start capturing those externality costs and applying them as regular costs of providing that good or service. If burning oil causes an additional $6 billion in damages to our health and planet, guess what, no more ignoring it. Hold Big Oil accountable for those costs. Now, what will be the real cost of gasoline once you factor in the externalities, etc.

Same with your meat production example. What are the external costs of producing meat? I know a vast dead lake in Ohio and residents who live in that town who would claim billions of damages from lost enjoyment, leisure, recreation, home appreciation, lost business, etc.

What's the square footage of our Gulf that is now a dead zone where the Mississippi River flows?

We need to capture all those costs which are conveniently excluded. What about the cost of these fires and the increased intensity of storms globally?

I could go on all morning on the so-called market-based economic system we use and how inefficient they are in what Noah refers to as the "rich countries."

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This is a good article, but overall I'm a bit confused as to how your points for green growth are politically feasible while degrowth proposals aren't. How do things like:

* A forced rapid transition to green electricity

* Forced rapid electrification of most energy use

* The forced rapid adoption of low-emissions heat for industrial processes

* Forced restriction of deforestation

survive the political realm? In particular you state that:

"In addition, even when the tragedy of the commons doesn’t exist, countries need to manage their natural resources in a far-sighted way. The U.S., for instance, has done a lot of this with land conservation, but failed to do this with respect to aquifers. Governments have to be more far-sighted than their citizens, saving resources for future generations instead of letting the current generation consume everything."

but that kind of far-sighted planning is politically infeasible, which is why we don't have land-use policies and carbon taxes that make beef and carbon-intensive fuel sources prohibitively expensive. That same issue is why rapid green growth is politically difficult.

The crux of the problem is described by the above quoted paragraph and this one:

"This is an absolutely enormous economic undertaking, and it is economic growth. It will require delaying some consumption so that the next generation can enjoy both higher standards of living and a more sustainable planet. But crucially, it represents delaying consumption, rather than permanently reducing consumption. That’s the big difference between green growth and degrowth."

Right now our paradigm is that resources don't really run out, we just need to develop better technology to access them. So long as that attitude holds people aren't going to be willing to reduce consumption now even for the promise of more later, because why should they have to? We've largely grown up with the notion that we can't actually exhaust the resources we use, so why should we reduce consumption?

There's an efficiency component to contend with, of course. If every person on the planet had the standard of living of France and the per capita CO2 equivalent emissions (6.44 tonnes per capita as of 2018) to match we'd still have to deal with 50 Gt/yr of CO2e. That's an insurmountable amount of emissions to deal with and ultimately that's the problem that needs to be solved. It's not at all clear what standard of living is sustainable right now. What is minimum CO2e per capita that can produce the French standard of living for every person on the planet? Is that even possible, or will our overall standard of living need to take a hit in order to ensure that future generations have a shot?

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I'm not sure where you're going with the "genteel North European decline" snark here? Northern Europe is not only the richest, but fastest-growing sub-region in Europe, both in economic and demographic terms. So, where's the "decline?" The economic recovery of the most Northerly EU economies post-COVID may even, by economist projections cited in Bloomberg just last week, outstrip that of the United States! And all the while while curbing consumption (VAT, anyone?) in order to increase investment (which has long been considerable) toward less carbon-intensive economic activity. Degrowth it ain't. But nowhere does any Northern European country claim it to be.

Nordic countries like Sweden are doing exactly the "green investment" model you're recommending here, with a per capita carbon emission that is a fourth that of the United States and while matching American economic growth, and even *outstripping* the United States' demographic growth.

Oh, and Sweden has a higher percentage of (carbon-intensive) manufacturing and a more export-dependent economy than the United States', too, so it's not an economy built on vaporous social media and NFTs, either. Sweden just recently started commercial production on the world's first carbon-neutral steel plant, using iron ore dug up from the world's oldest continually operating ore mines. It's developing some of the world's first commercial viable renewable aviation fuels, which is a good thing because Swedes fly even more than Americans do. Swedish homeowners are deploying heat-pumps at a fast clip to heat their houses and apartments in the notoriously chilly (and energy-hungry) winters. They're deploying EVs at a fast clip, with electric-hybrid SUVs as the fastest growing category. So, "genteel Northern Europe" certainly presents a very attractive model to emulate for any American who wants both growth and to forestall Apocalyptic future, here.

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The problem of degrowth can be boiled down to one thing: for centuries, economics has always treated Nature as an enemy to be conquered and consumed in the quest for growth; degrowth keeps this attitude, just treating Nature as an enemy that we must surrender to. Like, I was seeing a video on geoengineering and it’s funny how they call the initiative as a “fight” against climate change. Don’t they realize that they’re saying they’re just fighting against themselves? There is only one world and we are part of it. All those dreams of Mars colonies are just Elon Musk’s drug-induced hallucinations. The vast majority of mainstream economic models never really considers this.

That being said, I wonder what can be done, because degrowth does sound like a very privileged way to look at things. See in my country, Brazil. Bolsonaro’s Ministry of Environment is something that was ripped off from 1984, the objective of the Ministry of Environment is destroy and consume the environment in a quest to be an agro-exporter because economic theory of comparative advantages says so. Talk about degrowth (or even forced green growth), and you will be labelled a communist and, if Bolsonaro has its way, a political prisoner soon.

A greener growth will require planning indeed, to the horror of libertarians that don’t seem to understand that Nature is unable to give a single flying burger to John Galt’s 3-hour speech, but that will also require a change in how we see things. In South America, if there is one thing Nicolás Maduro and Jair Bolsonaro have in common is the machismo (I know the English term is sexism, but it really doesn’t capture half of the strength of the word). In South America, if you are in a position of power and is caught in something, you don’t resign; you double down because if they retreat from their position, you will lose. And while we still have this attitude as a people, there’s not much hope. But economic theory has to change as well, stopping to treat Nature as an enemy, as something to be subjugated would help a lot.

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Sorry reality hurts, but your options are orderly unwind, or disorderly collapse. You can keep your fingers in your ears, but show us a plan on how we do we a full rollout of wind + solar + ev within the timespan necessary to protect us from your already conservative climate apocalypse estimates.

The numbers don't add up. It doesn't matter what political willpower there is, if you actively just smile while yelling "I can't hear you", you are part of the problem instead of even trying for a solution. Nature abhors an exponential, and trying to make a planet with 10 billion people living in first world conditions is an exponential growth fairy tale.

No its neither fair to people in third world countries, nor just that western countries will steal what they can while we all fall down together, but reality doesn't care about your feelings. We can solve this, but we lost the time we had to make a soft landing. Now maybe we can land with the emergency chute and just break our legs.

Doing what you propose is pretending you can make a parachute out of string and some bedsheets while the ground is zooming towards your face.

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This is just a lengthier version of the "but guys we don't actually need to change that much about what we are doing" that has been said many times before by folks on Easter Island, Mayans, etc.

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- Noah, let’s go over this one last time. Some relative decoupling of resource consumption and growth is obviously possible; but there is consensus among a vast majority in science that a fast and large absolute decoupling is highly implausible. It is true that extrapolating from past trends is not a good argument, Degrowthers should not overuse this. But it is on Growthers to explain how the fuck they want to turn the very slight bend at the end of the trend into the absolutely miraculous decoupling that we need, all in the span of 20 years. I once read that the pace of innovation (expressed as some obviously imperfect measure, like patents or something like that), would have to accelerate by the factor 400 to do that (forgot where).

- It is true that we don’t “need” Degrowth in the strict sense of some Neo-Malthusian limits to growth; indeed, economic growth may turn out to be biophysically possible for, say, another 20-50 years. The problem only is that it might kill 8 billion people and destroy most of what we call civilisation in the process. In that sense, I find Degrowth preferable.

- Measuring resources in tons is a bad measure, that is true. However, for many purposes it’s still a better measure than dollars (i.e. what mainstream econ does); and ecological economists’ arguments also rely on many much less problematic measures like hectares of land, litres of fresh water, functional biodiversity et al. -> Noah picks on a weak but insignificant link in Degrowthers’ arguments

- “China and India etc. can use our technologies to follow a less destructive growth path“ -> yeah, they could, in a world that would look much like what Degrowth proposes: In the status quo, technologies are either monopolised (almost always by Western corporations, e.g. many of the services that Noah speaks of) or their use is not profitable enough (e.g. solar energy). In addition (Noah does not mention this), these countries import most of the ecological impact of the North. So if we want India to follow a sustainable growth path, we would need to abolish intellectual property rights; have the state massively rollout renewables; and end unequal global trade. If we did all that, we would be much closer to Degrowth than to capitalism. So Noah is, by implication, arguing for Degrowth here. Thx.

- “forcing developing countries to stay in poverty would be bad” -> indeed, which is why no Degrowther every proposed anything but the exact opposite. No need to react to this dirty straw man.

- “People are not ready for Degrowth” - Noah calls this the “political” argument, and this is indeed political, but since when is it an argument? Would we have had any progress in human history if those fighting for it had given up whenever they came to the conclusion that people are not ready for it? Besides, it is not like approval rates for capitalism and imperialism are great right now across the globe; and billions of people are resisting it in multitudes of ways.

- Noah discards Degrowth as a central planning fantasy as it “would (…) require deep changes in the entire way that the global economy works.” Well, the global economy has changed multiple times; most recently in the two “globalisations” of 1870-1930 and 1970-2020 and the two “de-globalisations” of 1930-1970 and 2021-?; and in all of these transformations planning has played a role, but nothing too crazy.

- I love the end. Noah argues for some crudely Leninist type of eco-socialism that he calls “forced green growth”: a forced rapid transition to green electricity, a forced rapid electrification of most energy use, the forced rapid adoption of low-emissions heat for industrial processes and forced restriction of deforestation. I have absolutely nothing against any of these policies, and I think any sensible person would agree. But I would ask Noah why we don’t already have all of these policies in place. Does he have an answer that is more convincing than Degrowthers’ analysis which points out that the most likely reason we don’t have any of these policies is that they would constrain capital accumulation and economic growth?

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Noah Smith: degrowth's program is "pragmatically impossible to implement" (people will vote against it)

Also Noah Smith: "Forced green growth ... Lots of planning ... infinitely less planning than [degrowth] ... unlike degrowth, they are possible"

Problem 1. Smith's "infinitely" rhetoric is a way to punt on specifying just how much planning is required.

Problem 2. Smith cites no empirical study in support of "forced green growth" being pragmatically possible. Assertion is not evidence.

Also Noah Smith:

" delaying consumption ... That’s the big difference between green growth and degrowth."

"People are willing to delay consumption for a brighter future."

"not impoverishing themselves, they’re just delaying gratification"

"consume less today, so you can consume more tomorrow"

Problem 3. Smith never specifies delay durations. For a range from 1 to N years, how large share of the voting population in rich countries will actually net benefit from the delays being enacted? For example will currently 70+ year old US citizens benefit from a 30 year delay?

I submit that if (1) the assumptions about voters implicitly needed for the "pragmatically impossible" critique of degrowth are true and if (2) the delays are 30+ years long (meaning plenty of now living voters will not even live to get the delayed gratification) then Smith's forced green growth is likely also "pragmatically impossible".

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Two Things:

- Never really heard of the Degrowth Movement.

- Can't imagine mitigating climate change has a coherent ideological approach. At the end of the day, CO2 equivalent PPM is all the world cares about, not our high-minded philosophy for getting there.

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Your argument only makes sense if you can put a timeline on your "forced green growth" proposal. Do you know how long it takes to retrofit an electricity grid? How long it takes to explore for new minerals, permit, construct, and get a mine to production? Replace every steel-making facility in China? Put everything on hold and conduct an investigation because your new technology just caught on fire?

The history of energy transitions shows they typically take 50-100 years. Could we move faster? Probably. But I don't think we could do this any faster than 30-40 years, which may not be fast enough. My estimate is besides the point though, which is that you haven't put in the work to show that a green transition can happen fast enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change. You also need to consider whether we have the resources to accomplish this in the first place. There was a recent IEA report on critical minerals that you may want to have a look at.

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There is a finite amount of oil, coal and gas (the energents of real pollution importance). If USA (or many more countries) stop using it, how does it help the planet if the other half of the population keeps using that much more of it for growth of their fossil-fuel based economies, and growth of population?

If the developed countries don't militarily force (pretending we can for the sake of argument) 100 million of Russians, Egyptians, Ethiopians, 200 millions od Brazilians, Pakistanis, Nigerians, 400mio Indonesians, 1.5 billion Indians... the list grows amazingly even without mentioning China... what kind of global climate predicament do we think will persuade them not to use cheap energy?

Meanwhile, super-developed Canada and Norway keep on selling their oil to anybody that pays for it, and Germany is still digging up coal (!!!) while being super-aware :-)

The degrowther fable has an inconvenient truth in it: stopping the use of cheap and simple dug-out energents can only be achieved by brute force. Thus it will not be achieved. All the coal and oil and gas will be used by somebody, unless nuclear energy become cheaper at the point of use (forget about 100 year externalia).

If anyone of us would actually be serious about immediate CO2 action, we need to build nuclear powerplants south east Asia and Africa with our own money, and sell them subsidized energy at lower cost than digging out oil and coal.

But we are not actually serious.

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