Tossing off Europe and other alternatives in a single sentence isn't convincing.
Yes, Japan's a great choice. But as Noah likes to point out, competing with China will be an 'all of the above' solution for the US. Europe has great shipyards, and they aren't occupied fighting Russia. Mexico and Canada are the most integrated into the American system, and Canada has shipyards, and mostly needs capital.
Trump pissing off 'all of the above' is of course the worst grand strategic posture the US has had in at least a century.
Outside of icebreakers, European shipyards are fine, but they're not as advanced as those in Japan or the ROK and not as cost-effective. Same with Canada. And besides, during a war in the Indopacific, I wouldn't want to send everything back across the ocean. We need more everywhere: Europe, North America, and Asia.
Why would Japan (or any country) want to get even deeper into the American orbit? The reward so far seems to have been bullying and abandonment. Incremental distancing and eventual severance ought to be the goal for any rational actor.
(And if anyone thinks we’ll be back to regular programming in 3 years, just look at the political pipeline on the younger end. Future US leaders may be actual 4channers/groypers/etc. and we’ll look back fondly on the days when they were merely Trumpy.)
When your neighbors include Russia and China, both of whom you've fought wars with in living memory and with whom you have territorial disagreements, you make do.
What a great post, Rie!! I'm wondering if you can comment on the perception of Japan's corporate culture as promoting people based on seniority rather than merit. How do you feel like it is now compared to the USA, how do you see it evolving, and do you see any cultural trends unique to successful Japanese companies?
The very obvious synergy I see here is not with American companies, but with Ukrainian ones.
Anduril is present in Ukraine, of course. It has to be. The quality of anything AI-related is defined by the quality of the data. And Ukraine is being extremely strategic with its hoard of data.
But Anduril's track-record in real combat is unimpressive. In a crowded field of promising start-ups, so far it seems to be more of a laggard.
I would guess, that the combination of Japanese and Ukrainian engineers could do better.
I think that's true of certain smaller drones, though it's not clear if Ukraine can scale the same way as Japan or others can (partly because the Ukrainians are innovating at the unit-level).
If with "scale" you're refering to production, then - yes - Japan has industrial production know-how that Ukraine can't match.
Ukraine is really strong in software and data-integration, though, and increasingly in design including counter-drone, naval and long-range. Innovation there has a strong bottom-up component, but it doesn't stay at the unit level.
There's a well managed national start-up ecosystem, winners get identified and supported.
Yes, to shipbuilding and including weapons like the Tomahawk program that was canceled by this idiotic Administration. Time is against the US. We cannot build much of anything anymore without lawsuits and NIMBY involvement.
We no longer have a population that has the skill set for manufacturing. As a member of the boomer generation, when I entered school, classes in metal shop, auto shop, wood shop, and so forth educated a generation of people who wanted to build stuff and could build stuff. We learned from the prior generation that subsumed the Axis powers.
It is time to test our alliances, not toss them off like unsatisfactory dates. I would certainly include Japan and South Korea, but I wouldn’t throw away our European Allies. We need all to offset the emerging threats to peace and prosperity.
Well said! We're getting a little tired of being told by MAGA types that we're a failing region on the brink of cultural extinction - unless our head of state happens to be a blonde, female right-winger.
I do not disagree that a fully rearmed Japan would be an invaluable military counter to China & co. But Isn't Korea already fully armed to the teeth and has a robust shipping industry? Japan is more than double its population, yes, but Korea's military is one of the largest in the world.
- Congress, DoD, and the WH will need to prioritize supply chain resilience over protectionism and domestic job creation. There are legislative restrictions on shipbuilding and maintenance, and any major arms cooperation will require DoD's approval at a time when they're told to focus on onshoring manufacturing. The U.S. is hoping that we'll attract Americans back to manufacturing jobs with more onshoring, but I'm not as optimistic. Not everyone wants to be a welder even if it comes with excellent pay, especially if you have to pass government screening.
- From an accounting standpoint, overbuilding capacity (here and abroad) may seem wasteful, but a certain amount of overcapacity is helpful when shifting to wartime. With additive manufacturing, we can shift some commercial capacity to military uses, but not everything can be churned out by a 3D printer. We should spread these costs around with our allies like Japan.
- DoD will also need to consider logistics and manufacturing capacity closer to the frontline. Ukraine is surrounded by NATO countries that can provide geographically proximate sustainment support. That's not possible in certain other parts of the world, especially in INDOPACOM. I think we're still designing our logistics around sending things across/over the Pacific during wartime.
- Japan and other countries will need to show willingness to send weapons to conflict zones even if they're not directly involved in combat. This isn't as politically palatable with their voters as it is in the United States. Europe has similar issues in this regard. While the Takaichi Administration may be moving fast to change arms transfer policies, Japan's customers will need to gain confidence that a future leftward turn won't turn off the tap at a critical moment as has happened in Europe with Israel.
- Japan specifically has an edge in naval systems. While European shipyards are fine, they're not as advanced as those in East Asia and is more expensive.
There is nothing that the Japanese can do than we can't do. We need to stop with this garbage attitude that we need to rely on foreign countries for production because we just can't do it ourselves. And it won't take a long time. In from 1940 to 1941 tank production was increased by 8x, and another 4x on top of that the following year. Training people is fast. Credentialism is slow. So get rid of it. We don't need another giant industrial subsidy act like Biden did. We can fix this for free. All we have to do is a mass deportation... of lawyers, bureaucrats, and safetyists.
"Japan’s centralized, bureaucratic regulatory approval process gets things built much faster than America’s more legalistic one."
This has nothing to do with "bureaucrats", it's about policy priorities and the willingness of the national government to preempt the field of environmental and land use law in the pursuit of strengthening national defense production capabilities. The Japanese system recognizes the efficiency and trustworthiness of a deeply-trained bureaucracy that is able to operate outside the kind of political litmus tests applied in the US (by both extremes).
It's Republican anti-government, anti-bureaucracy rhetoric and stultified thinking that spawned both the legalistic environmental over-reaction that plagues us AND the lack of governmental capacity that makes us slow and stupid in responding to urgent national priorities that demand speed and rational planning.
You are seriously blaming republicans for a problem that is far worse in democrat run states? Please explain to me why California is not the most efficient state in the US. Please explain why California has its own hellish environmental bureaucracy on top of the federal version. It was the Republicans that control CA that did that, right? Who is the party that is proposing to overhaul NEPA here? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/white-house-finalizes-plan-to-curb-national-environmental-policy-act
Republicans are far from perfect, but it takes some mental gymnastics to blame them for this particular problem.
Sure. The environmental movement of the late 60s-early 70s was a legitimate and bipartisan reaction to rampant pollution inconsistent with the way an increasingly prosperous population wanted to live. Excessive environmental proceduralism (the "over-reaction" of the late 1970s forward) was a reaction to full-throated Republican opposition to environmental regulation and the tendency of Republican politicians to denounce and undermine all forms of "government intrusion" in private industry decision-making, best exemplified by the Reagan administration... until the Trump administration. Third-party Legal Proceduralism is a defensive reaction to the combination of (1) diminished state capacity to make informed and trustworthy decisions (a consequence of Republicans constantly decimating state capacity by attacking/firing/defunding "bureacrats"), and (2) the metastisizing of private of legal remedies on procedural grounds. This what happened in California with CEQA, and to a lesser extent, NEPA. Democrats in California have been reforming CEQA mightily under both Brown (v. 2) and Newsom to make building easier, but the legal thicket that has grown up around it is tough to cut, and the defenders of it are NIMBYs of all political stripes -- including but certainly not exclusively Republicans - I most certainly do not hold Democrats blameless in any of this.
The point I am trying to make about Japan (and France, and Germany and Italy...) is that the best course of action is to INCREASE state capacity rather than tear it down, which is how all those countries are better are large, centralized project execution that we are. If you have competent, efficient and trustworthy bureuacrats, you have less need for third-party remedies, which is what slows us down. In this country, it is predominantly Republicans trying to reduce state capacity and turn all decision-making over to private enterprise without regard to the public interest. The public is never going to accept that (watch what is happening with AI), so we stay locked in this terrible equilibrium with low state capacity, low trust, highly politicized (and corrupt) decision-making based on political influence and contributions. RATHER than: high state capacity and a decision-making process that emphasizes swift, rational and practical trade-offs among competing interests. A high-capacity system is a high-trust system. Both the private enterprises trying to build and the private interests raising concerns about the building need to be able to trust the system to respect the outcomes.
Well said, and timely. The US is already using S Korea for ship building and Japan is assembling its F35s locally.
S Korea and Japan have infrastructure and expertise. However, they need more workers, and tomorrow’s workers aren’t being born. If the answer is automated manufacturing and robotics, then that could happen in the US (which has good rail transportation, and outside of blue states, has low land costs and low electricity costs).
If the need is people, then perhaps N Korea and China (and perhaps South Asia) could be a future source of imported labor.
Stress is driver for innovation acceleration. Kasparov today discussed that Ukraine agreed to send anti Iran Shahid drones to the US middle east areas to counter Iran drones there. I think he said Russia has fired 11,000 Iran drones at Ukraine.
Interesting article, lots of info. The term “reindustrialization” should be defined, but here it is not. I hope it is not big slow moving costly stuff like surface ships, piloted aircraft, and armored vehicles. These are very easy to see and hit with smart missiles and drones. What is built matters.
Tossing off Europe and other alternatives in a single sentence isn't convincing.
Yes, Japan's a great choice. But as Noah likes to point out, competing with China will be an 'all of the above' solution for the US. Europe has great shipyards, and they aren't occupied fighting Russia. Mexico and Canada are the most integrated into the American system, and Canada has shipyards, and mostly needs capital.
Trump pissing off 'all of the above' is of course the worst grand strategic posture the US has had in at least a century.
Outside of icebreakers, European shipyards are fine, but they're not as advanced as those in Japan or the ROK and not as cost-effective. Same with Canada. And besides, during a war in the Indopacific, I wouldn't want to send everything back across the ocean. We need more everywhere: Europe, North America, and Asia.
Why would Japan (or any country) want to get even deeper into the American orbit? The reward so far seems to have been bullying and abandonment. Incremental distancing and eventual severance ought to be the goal for any rational actor.
(And if anyone thinks we’ll be back to regular programming in 3 years, just look at the political pipeline on the younger end. Future US leaders may be actual 4channers/groypers/etc. and we’ll look back fondly on the days when they were merely Trumpy.)
When your neighbors include Russia and China, both of whom you've fought wars with in living memory and with whom you have territorial disagreements, you make do.
Mate what could *possibly* be the alternative if you don't want to become a chinese client state given japan's location?
I'm not opposed to any of this. But the US needs to get our own damn house in order and make it easier to build here
What a great post, Rie!! I'm wondering if you can comment on the perception of Japan's corporate culture as promoting people based on seniority rather than merit. How do you feel like it is now compared to the USA, how do you see it evolving, and do you see any cultural trends unique to successful Japanese companies?
The very obvious synergy I see here is not with American companies, but with Ukrainian ones.
Anduril is present in Ukraine, of course. It has to be. The quality of anything AI-related is defined by the quality of the data. And Ukraine is being extremely strategic with its hoard of data.
But Anduril's track-record in real combat is unimpressive. In a crowded field of promising start-ups, so far it seems to be more of a laggard.
I would guess, that the combination of Japanese and Ukrainian engineers could do better.
I think that's true of certain smaller drones, though it's not clear if Ukraine can scale the same way as Japan or others can (partly because the Ukrainians are innovating at the unit-level).
If with "scale" you're refering to production, then - yes - Japan has industrial production know-how that Ukraine can't match.
Ukraine is really strong in software and data-integration, though, and increasingly in design including counter-drone, naval and long-range. Innovation there has a strong bottom-up component, but it doesn't stay at the unit level.
There's a well managed national start-up ecosystem, winners get identified and supported.
Yes, to shipbuilding and including weapons like the Tomahawk program that was canceled by this idiotic Administration. Time is against the US. We cannot build much of anything anymore without lawsuits and NIMBY involvement.
We no longer have a population that has the skill set for manufacturing. As a member of the boomer generation, when I entered school, classes in metal shop, auto shop, wood shop, and so forth educated a generation of people who wanted to build stuff and could build stuff. We learned from the prior generation that subsumed the Axis powers.
It is time to test our alliances, not toss them off like unsatisfactory dates. I would certainly include Japan and South Korea, but I wouldn’t throw away our European Allies. We need all to offset the emerging threats to peace and prosperity.
Well said! We're getting a little tired of being told by MAGA types that we're a failing region on the brink of cultural extinction - unless our head of state happens to be a blonde, female right-winger.
I do not disagree that a fully rearmed Japan would be an invaluable military counter to China & co. But Isn't Korea already fully armed to the teeth and has a robust shipping industry? Japan is more than double its population, yes, but Korea's military is one of the largest in the world.
Porque no los dos?
A few thoughts regarding this excellent post.
- Congress, DoD, and the WH will need to prioritize supply chain resilience over protectionism and domestic job creation. There are legislative restrictions on shipbuilding and maintenance, and any major arms cooperation will require DoD's approval at a time when they're told to focus on onshoring manufacturing. The U.S. is hoping that we'll attract Americans back to manufacturing jobs with more onshoring, but I'm not as optimistic. Not everyone wants to be a welder even if it comes with excellent pay, especially if you have to pass government screening.
- From an accounting standpoint, overbuilding capacity (here and abroad) may seem wasteful, but a certain amount of overcapacity is helpful when shifting to wartime. With additive manufacturing, we can shift some commercial capacity to military uses, but not everything can be churned out by a 3D printer. We should spread these costs around with our allies like Japan.
- DoD will also need to consider logistics and manufacturing capacity closer to the frontline. Ukraine is surrounded by NATO countries that can provide geographically proximate sustainment support. That's not possible in certain other parts of the world, especially in INDOPACOM. I think we're still designing our logistics around sending things across/over the Pacific during wartime.
- Japan and other countries will need to show willingness to send weapons to conflict zones even if they're not directly involved in combat. This isn't as politically palatable with their voters as it is in the United States. Europe has similar issues in this regard. While the Takaichi Administration may be moving fast to change arms transfer policies, Japan's customers will need to gain confidence that a future leftward turn won't turn off the tap at a critical moment as has happened in Europe with Israel.
- Japan specifically has an edge in naval systems. While European shipyards are fine, they're not as advanced as those in East Asia and is more expensive.
The UK can do a rather good nuclear submarine, I'm told.
There is nothing that the Japanese can do than we can't do. We need to stop with this garbage attitude that we need to rely on foreign countries for production because we just can't do it ourselves. And it won't take a long time. In from 1940 to 1941 tank production was increased by 8x, and another 4x on top of that the following year. Training people is fast. Credentialism is slow. So get rid of it. We don't need another giant industrial subsidy act like Biden did. We can fix this for free. All we have to do is a mass deportation... of lawyers, bureaucrats, and safetyists.
"Japan’s centralized, bureaucratic regulatory approval process gets things built much faster than America’s more legalistic one."
This has nothing to do with "bureaucrats", it's about policy priorities and the willingness of the national government to preempt the field of environmental and land use law in the pursuit of strengthening national defense production capabilities. The Japanese system recognizes the efficiency and trustworthiness of a deeply-trained bureaucracy that is able to operate outside the kind of political litmus tests applied in the US (by both extremes).
It's Republican anti-government, anti-bureaucracy rhetoric and stultified thinking that spawned both the legalistic environmental over-reaction that plagues us AND the lack of governmental capacity that makes us slow and stupid in responding to urgent national priorities that demand speed and rational planning.
You are seriously blaming republicans for a problem that is far worse in democrat run states? Please explain to me why California is not the most efficient state in the US. Please explain why California has its own hellish environmental bureaucracy on top of the federal version. It was the Republicans that control CA that did that, right? Who is the party that is proposing to overhaul NEPA here? https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/white-house-finalizes-plan-to-curb-national-environmental-policy-act
Republicans are far from perfect, but it takes some mental gymnastics to blame them for this particular problem.
Sure. The environmental movement of the late 60s-early 70s was a legitimate and bipartisan reaction to rampant pollution inconsistent with the way an increasingly prosperous population wanted to live. Excessive environmental proceduralism (the "over-reaction" of the late 1970s forward) was a reaction to full-throated Republican opposition to environmental regulation and the tendency of Republican politicians to denounce and undermine all forms of "government intrusion" in private industry decision-making, best exemplified by the Reagan administration... until the Trump administration. Third-party Legal Proceduralism is a defensive reaction to the combination of (1) diminished state capacity to make informed and trustworthy decisions (a consequence of Republicans constantly decimating state capacity by attacking/firing/defunding "bureacrats"), and (2) the metastisizing of private of legal remedies on procedural grounds. This what happened in California with CEQA, and to a lesser extent, NEPA. Democrats in California have been reforming CEQA mightily under both Brown (v. 2) and Newsom to make building easier, but the legal thicket that has grown up around it is tough to cut, and the defenders of it are NIMBYs of all political stripes -- including but certainly not exclusively Republicans - I most certainly do not hold Democrats blameless in any of this.
The point I am trying to make about Japan (and France, and Germany and Italy...) is that the best course of action is to INCREASE state capacity rather than tear it down, which is how all those countries are better are large, centralized project execution that we are. If you have competent, efficient and trustworthy bureuacrats, you have less need for third-party remedies, which is what slows us down. In this country, it is predominantly Republicans trying to reduce state capacity and turn all decision-making over to private enterprise without regard to the public interest. The public is never going to accept that (watch what is happening with AI), so we stay locked in this terrible equilibrium with low state capacity, low trust, highly politicized (and corrupt) decision-making based on political influence and contributions. RATHER than: high state capacity and a decision-making process that emphasizes swift, rational and practical trade-offs among competing interests. A high-capacity system is a high-trust system. Both the private enterprises trying to build and the private interests raising concerns about the building need to be able to trust the system to respect the outcomes.
US, Europe and Japan could learn a lot from each other on a number of fronts.
Well said, and timely. The US is already using S Korea for ship building and Japan is assembling its F35s locally.
S Korea and Japan have infrastructure and expertise. However, they need more workers, and tomorrow’s workers aren’t being born. If the answer is automated manufacturing and robotics, then that could happen in the US (which has good rail transportation, and outside of blue states, has low land costs and low electricity costs).
If the need is people, then perhaps N Korea and China (and perhaps South Asia) could be a future source of imported labor.
Stress is driver for innovation acceleration. Kasparov today discussed that Ukraine agreed to send anti Iran Shahid drones to the US middle east areas to counter Iran drones there. I think he said Russia has fired 11,000 Iran drones at Ukraine.
I realize that Russia and China are still ruled by thugs, but it is sad that humans are still building weapons of war.
Interesting article, lots of info. The term “reindustrialization” should be defined, but here it is not. I hope it is not big slow moving costly stuff like surface ships, piloted aircraft, and armored vehicles. These are very easy to see and hit with smart missiles and drones. What is built matters.
This was a great read and well written. Much love from SYD Australia 🦘