This is a brilliant exchange. Both as an insightful panorama of the current geopolitical stage (and how we got here) and as a compass through the current anti-democratic cacophony and geopolitical news flow.
God, this is good. Worth reading + sharing again and again. A bounty of wisdom that underscores timeless truth claims while raising new ones. One the latter (mixed metaphor alert): I've long banged the drum for raising the curtain on Russian influence on the GOP and, by extension, its elected representatives. As one whose ancestors (4) fought in the Continental Army and were members of / public servants in the party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike, it appalls me how what once was noble has declined. My hope is that exposure + transformation will occur, not extinction. May it be so, pronto. Again, deep thanks for this master class. 🙏🏾
Very Very Nice Article..... first time I heard "The imperative to get beyond “crotch” politics" .....a focus on the trivial. She makes a great deal of sense and her arguments are well-reasoned. Interesting observation about the "greatest generation" being the parents of WWII generation...who lived through WWI and the Great Depression. One wonders if there is a cycle of sentiment which underlies human behavior. Hard times train a population and engender key values (kindness, humility, etc) which serve as the basis for good times. Good times train the population with key values (arrogance, indifference, etc) ...which can lead to hard times. It is interesting that immigrants often serve as a dose of reality in good times.
This is one of the best articles I've read on your Substack!
"The connection between their personal well-being with a rules-based order at home and abroad" - there's a couple of isolationists on Twitter that need to realize this.
Absolutely spectacular! I am a 65 year old, white, former Marine officer. Oh, and a devout Christian. Not exactly the ideal profile for the Democratic Party. In fact, a lot of the sub-intellectual thinking from the elite left over the last 25 years has deeply troubled me. But I am also someone who believes the U.S. is the greatest and most wonderful democratic experiment the world has ever known (with all the horrible disclaimers - genocide and a brutal system of slavery among the most notable). I am praying with all my might that Trump will not be reelected. I might have some minor differences with Dr. Paine but she is largely spot on. If Trump returns to the Oval Office it will be a disaster for the country and the world that I believe could ultimately resemble Old Testament prophecy or sci-fi. I know the internet is filled with folks that think their hair is on fire. I hate that and really have almost never done that. But when I see the guy that was responsible for 1/6 as the “presumptive nominee” for the Republican Party my head starts feeling uncomfortably warm.
Before you go high-fiving me let me be clear. I think gender abolition is not “following the science”. CRT is an absurdly naive ideology and Judeo-Christianity laid the foundation for the Enlightenment, Democracy and the end of slavery. But I am pragmatic. A vote for Trump is a vote against this upward arc.
Just came across your comment today March 21st 2025. WOW. You definitely approach history as it should be... as a tool for learning, warning, and encouragement.
Continue to share your insights ...'cause your foresight is uncannily prophetic.
I am not convinced that Putin will attack NATO countries. the fact that so many experts take jt as given imply they think he’s mad. There is a Biden video explaining the red line in the early 90s that Putin says was crossed. Many experts completely disagree with the interviewee here.
Also the Trump animosity in the interview and comments are hard to understand, as he was the only president in recent memory not to get involved in a new war, proxy or otherwise, as well as creating normalization of relations between Israel and some Middle East countries. I don’t think people even understand why he got elected in 2016, and likely will this year. Most of the dictator-staying-in-power vibes come from the side with the guy in public office for 50-odd years and refusing to step aside.
Seriously? If Trumps approval of Jan. 6 and denial of election results doesn't convince you of his dictatorial ambitions perhaps his puppy love of N Korea style political leadership will. I get this all the time from my Trump friends, "no man, you just don't understand him", like the photo journalist defending Kurtz in 'Apocalypse Now'.
Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan group analyzed the 900+page Heritage Foundation document for systematically dismantling US democracy if Trump is reelected.
There is no way to downplay the danger.
Trump doesn't care about the US or democracy. He simply wants criminal impunity, money and power. The dark money pulling the strings want to eliminate all corporate regulations and taxation, right-wing religious extremists want to impose their religion on the country, and right-wing White supremacists want to roll back civil rights.
Trump cares more about crushing dissent at home than ideological adventures abroad. But that goes hand in hand with his indifference to the international order. Mussolini made the same arguments, blaming his enemies for World War 1. In the end he got dragged into war anyway and was on the wrong side of it because he, like Trump, loved strongmen.
DJ, where do you see evidence that Trump wants to "crush dissent at home"? COVID was a wanna-be dictator's wet dream: a public health emergency that could be leveraged for maximum personal power to crush dissent. He did not. Given every opportunity to aggregate power to himself, he deferred to states and governors, instead using federal authority to drive the one thing it needed to do: deliver a vaccine.
Trump's rhetoric worries me too. But actions speak louder than words. But despite chanting "lock her up" in 2016, he never tried to have his DOJ imprison Hillary Clinton or Comey or any other prominent Democrats. And he could have -- a federal prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich. However the Biden administration is pulling out all the stops to imprison Trump. Makes you wonder which side really has dictatorial ambitions.
This is just gaslighting. Supporting Jan 6 is not evidence of crushing dissent? The Georgia "find me the votes" call isn't evidence? And of course, he is crushing dissent first and foremost within the Republican party, destroying any and all candidates who do not kiss his ring.
Screaming "gaslighting" is a sign someone has has no actual answer to an argument.
And "crushing dissent with the Party" is exactly what every primary candidate in every political party has always done. That's literally the job in a primary.
I will say it again: Trump had every opportunity in 2020 to become a dictator. He took none of them.
Grand juries and juries are not, "The Biden Administration." Have you gone commie on us and don't even support the great system of justice we have in this nation?
Trump absolutely tried to put Hillary and others in prison. Don McGahn and his team wrote a memo explaining they had no basis and that if he did it we would likely be impeached.
Since then he's been impeached twice, but with no consequences in the Senate. He "learned his lesson" that he can act with impunity as long as there are fewer than 67 senators willing to convict.
Re: the Biden DOJ -- after January 6 multiple Senators and congressman said Trump should face legal consequences. The vast majority of the witnesses for the January 6 committee were Republicans *who worked for Trump.* It would be malpractice *not* to investigate.
The Fani Willis shenanigans in Georgia stink to high heaven.
In both cases, these "prosecutors" ran for office promising to be persecutors: "I'll GET Donald Trump!" That alone is a terrible red flag. I would never vote for a DA or AG who promised to use the office to "go after" a particular person, regardless of how reprehensible I found that person's political views. It's just wrong.
Is it justice for a jury to give $80M to a aging advice columnist who allegedly lost her job because Trump "defamed her" by saying that he hadn't raped her at some unspecified time in the past that she can't remember? That whole case is just Kavanagh all over. And the NY Legislature passed a law to make the case possible, a law that appears to have been targeted to a single man: Donald Trump.
Trump is an ass. Trump may even be a criminal. But this process is reprehensible. If the Democrats are allowed to get away with this, lawfare will be their new standard campaign tactic for the next generation. Why run an campaign when you can use friendly prosecutors to tie up your opposition in court cases the whole time?
And it won't stay with Democrats. Republicans won't like it, but if those are the new rules, they will start doing the same thing. Do you really want to live in a banana republic? Because that's what we're creating here.
The Manhattan DA trial is specious, I'll grant that.
9 people voted to find Trump guilty. Take it up with them. The purpose of that verdict is show him that defamation has consequences, something he didn't learn from the first trial.
The NY AG trial is loooooong overdue. Allegations of shady behavior by the Trump Organization were talked about long before he was president. Most banks had stopped lending to him because of it.
The Georgia trial is a natural consequence of his attempts to intimidate Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and only possible because he correctly guessed that recording Trump's call with him was the best way to protect himself. He and the former Lt Governor have had to hire personal security for their families because of Trump's threats.
Liz Cheney and Adam Kinziger have spoken about how several House members told them they wanted to vote for impeachment but feared for their safety. There is no analog for that on the left.
Amit, I understand where you’re coming from; it’s easy to take Putin’s words at face value. Still, I would invite you to reconsider your position. Take these words, for example:
“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” [1]
To be clear, Putin sees Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, etc. as wayward citizens. While he didn’t explicitly state so in the quote above, it’s clear that he sees them “as one people” in some of his other writings, such as his infamous essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”. [2] In his mind, the Russian Empire itself (“Russkiy Mir”) is the “rightful home” of all slavic peoples, and it is his job of restoring it to its former glory. Putin also voraciously reads Ivan Ilyin [3], a fascist, and follows his teachings to the letter to the extent that he can.
If Ukraine falls, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are next. Likely Poland, too, in order to close the Suwałki Gap (the area that keeps the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad inaccessible by land from Belarus and therefore, by proxy, from Russia).
Insightful comment! I'd also point to Peter Zeihan's geographic analysis, which he (very) briefly synopsizes here: https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo?si=f08PibSeWQFbsbAq (this is a short 3.5 minutes long spotlight from a longer presentation he did in 2017).
Trump escalated Yemen and we were having as many combat casualties as we are having now under Trump. So this Iran proxy terrorist group killed troops in March of 2020 after we took out an Iranian general. And Iran also shot down a commercial plane half full of Canadians as retaliation for Trump killing the general.
This was great but still depressing for me - the level of support for Trump suggests we don’t yet understand the gravity of our geopolitical situation let alone domestic.
I’ve noticed a few CnC positions available in my area (some with Kratos) and toyed with the idea - I think those would be very helpful in a time of conflict. But future job growth in that sector is nearly stagnant and there are ample opportunities elsewhere.
At a personal level I struggle with how to help/prepare but I dearly want to mostly because I fear what’s to come. I’m getting back into shape, eating better, shooting more, and planning to buy some drones. I’m making faraday boxes for those close to me.
But I don’t think Americans want to change their minds yet.
When buying drones--it's very hard to source non-Chinese drones. Do your homework on all your drone parts, and test everything to the best of your ability to make sure your drones can't report any data back to other countries. You probably won't need to go as far as buying off the Blue List (a list of federally cleared drones), but that may be a place to start.
I found her thesis entirely unsatisfactory. This is nothing more than narrative history which Noah had criticised in the past, but now accepts without any push back. She points to no data. Just a bunch of case studies at best. Again, just a narrative. When Noah asks if there is any evidence for maritime powers being more democratic, she provides nothing. The only data point she uses is the one about the importance of shipping and coastal economies. She creates this entire thesis just from this one data point. She's not an academic. She's at best a narrative historian which is nothing more than a propagandist.
To all those might want to label a far rightist or leftist. I'm not. Although I'm not American I do support most of her prescriptions.
She didn't point to any data about maritime powers tending to be more democratic than continental powers because it's too apparent. U.S, UK, Japan are the only maritime powers and all of them are democratic, while Russia and China are authoritarian regimes. In the past, the U.K and U.S adopted democracy at a comparatively earlier time compared to continental powers like France, Prussia, all other empires in Europe and all other empires around the World.
It's not narrative history just because she wants to reach out to broader audiences, many of whom has no expertise in this area, by making it easier and more interesting to read.
Decent interview. Her international affairs and historical analysis is worth the read, but you shouldn't have gone into domestic politics. On that issue, she's completely blind to her biases. (Which makes me wonder about her biases on the other issues too, but I digress.)
"When only one opinion is acceptable and others are either shouted down or threatened with violence, that is called dictatorship"
Who in America is shouting down opinions today? It's not the Republicans mobbing university speakers. "Political correctness" came from the liberals. "Cancel culture" came from the liberals. The GOP is trying it now out of desperation, but they don't like it and aren't particularly good at it. Who in America is trying to jail the political opposition? Not Republicans. The lawfare is driven by liberals against Trump and anyone even remotely in his orbit. She's right though; that sort of behavior is dictatorial.
"Those who lose elections must accept their loss. That is how democracy works. Try harder to win legally the next time. Telling the truth, playing by the rules, and treating others with civility are also fundamental to the family values that Republicans claim to espouse. "
Why are Republicans supposed to play by Queensbury rules when the Democrats play by street rules?
"The Republican Party needs to return its core values of protecting U.S. national security and democracy."
Our largest national security threat today is the 2M people annually who stream across our Southern border largely unchecked and take up residence inside the United States. Republicans didn't do that. That's a Democrat creation. And most Republicans doubt that it was accidental.
The threat to democracy today isn't coming from the Right but from the Left. It is the Left that uses judges to overturn the will of the people. It is the Left that is using the powers of government to harass, bankrupt and imprison political opponents. It is the Left that is altering voting laws to shotgun ballots to every person and then let paid ballot harvesters "help you" fill them out. It is the Left that refuses to require ID to cast a ballot or even register to vote. It is the Left that is attempting to assert a liberal/progressive authoritarianism that seeks to subvert the will of the people. In short, it is the Left that is resistant to democracy. What the Left calls "populism" is actually "democracy".
"To fix America, Americans need to listen to each other, accommodate each other, compromise with each other"
This smacks of Rodney King's "can't we all just get along?" What if the answer is, "no, we can't." What if our differences are over issues that cannot be compromised on? What do we do then? The Left decided the Right was all a bunch of Nazis about 10 years ago. What compromise is possible with Nazis?
Make America Great Again was a slogan of optimism: given the right policies, America can be a great country. The Left hated that slogan. Why? Because they don't think America was ever "great". They've been taught America was founded on racism and bigotry, that white supremacy pervades our country and renders us irredeemable. In 2016, the Right answered that view of America with optimism: America has been great and can be again. But you don't hear that from the Trump campaign today. Why not? It isn't that Republicans have concluded that Democrats were right and America was never a great country; it's because many no longer believe that "great America" to be salvageable. And in light of the differences in outlook that Left and Right seem to have (increasingly they are theological not political) this is not an unreasonable conclusion. The Left appears to feel the same way; Hillary Clinton's moved from calling Trump voters deplorable in 2016 to wanting to put them in "re-education camps" last year.
Compromise is a 2 way street. And convincing yourself that 75M of your fellow Americans are little Himlers voting mindlessly for their fascist, orange, fuhrer is a very poor way to start a dialogue of compromise.
Anyway, good interview, Noah. I think her maritime / continental distinction is very interesting and I would love to read more of her on that subject. But her political analysis suffers from a severe case of TDS and lots of blind spots.
You wrote: "Those who lose elections must accept their loss. That is how democracy works. Try harder to win legally the next time. Telling the truth, playing by the rules, and treating others with civility are also fundamental to the family values that Republicans claim to espouse. "
Why are Republicans supposed to play by Queensbury rules when the Democrats play by street rules?
------------------
Just compare Al Gore’s behavior in 2000 vs Trump in 2020 if you really think both sides behave the same way. You’re basically arguing that Trump can’t be held accountable for anything. By all means, when a Democrat tries to overthrow an election, lock him up. If we’re honest we know a Democrat who did one tenth of what Trump did, he would be in jail.
I agree 100% about Gore. the man is wrong on nearly policy, but I have immense respect for Gore's behavior in that election. I think that's a time thing not a partisan thing though. In 2000 we still had a largely functional republic with a high level of institutional trust; that's shot now. Were a Bush v Gore scenario to happen today (with Trump and Biden for example), I do see either candidate conceding: Trump because he's incapable of admitting error and Biden because he actually believes that Trump is a fascist dictator. It's worth noting that Stacey Abrams in Georgia refused to accept her 2018 election defeat just like Trump refused to accept his in 2020.
"You’re basically arguing that Trump can’t be held accountable for anything. "
No, I'm not. Some commentator about a year ago put it well: "no one should be above the law, but the law also shouldn't be used to target someone either." What's going on with Trump increasingly looks like targeting, especially the NY stuff. The AG and DA both ran on a platform of: "I'll get Donald Trump". That's not "equality before the law"; that's "targeting". Imagine for a moment if a Republican DA ran on a promise to "bankrupt abortion clinics" or to "destroy BLM" or to "get Nancy Pelosi" -- you would never think that was OK. And you would be right.
I have worked in investment real estate; what Trump did in valuing his properties for financing is 100% standard practice. You submit a value, the bank pushes comes up with a much lower value, then you negotiate. Making the loan is the bank's way of accepting the agreed valuation. And in this case, there literally is no victim. The loan was fully repaid. No one lost money. No one claimed fraud.
You say: "If we’re honest we know a Democrat who did one tenth of what Trump did, he would be in jail."
I would turn that around. If the actions described above were performed by anyone NOT named "Donald Trump, likely GOP Presidential nominee", that case would never have even been filed, and if it were, it would have been laughed out of court.
Insightful comment and spot on regarding her failure to address the political left in any meaningful way. It severely diminishes her credibility, which is regrettable as she otherwise has some very useful information and perspective.
This is a brilliant exchange. Both as an insightful panorama of the current geopolitical stage (and how we got here) and as a compass through the current anti-democratic cacophony and geopolitical news flow.
God, this is good. Worth reading + sharing again and again. A bounty of wisdom that underscores timeless truth claims while raising new ones. One the latter (mixed metaphor alert): I've long banged the drum for raising the curtain on Russian influence on the GOP and, by extension, its elected representatives. As one whose ancestors (4) fought in the Continental Army and were members of / public servants in the party of Lincoln, TR, and Ike, it appalls me how what once was noble has declined. My hope is that exposure + transformation will occur, not extinction. May it be so, pronto. Again, deep thanks for this master class. 🙏🏾
Agreed- let the party owned by the Chinese win!
Very Very Nice Article..... first time I heard "The imperative to get beyond “crotch” politics" .....a focus on the trivial. She makes a great deal of sense and her arguments are well-reasoned. Interesting observation about the "greatest generation" being the parents of WWII generation...who lived through WWI and the Great Depression. One wonders if there is a cycle of sentiment which underlies human behavior. Hard times train a population and engender key values (kindness, humility, etc) which serve as the basis for good times. Good times train the population with key values (arrogance, indifference, etc) ...which can lead to hard times. It is interesting that immigrants often serve as a dose of reality in good times.
Excellent! And thank you for making it freely available.
This is one of the best articles I've read on your Substack!
"The connection between their personal well-being with a rules-based order at home and abroad" - there's a couple of isolationists on Twitter that need to realize this.
This is one of the best articles I’ve read on ANY Substack.
Superb. But now you’ve whetted our appetite for the experts Paine mentioned--on European defense, US production, et al.
As Paine might say, this was not the dessert but the delicious hors d’oeuvres for the banquet we’re now expecting from you in 2024.
She is so good at interviews. Clear explanations of concepts. No vanity or blabla. Just good analysis. A true role model for analysis.
Absolutely spectacular! I am a 65 year old, white, former Marine officer. Oh, and a devout Christian. Not exactly the ideal profile for the Democratic Party. In fact, a lot of the sub-intellectual thinking from the elite left over the last 25 years has deeply troubled me. But I am also someone who believes the U.S. is the greatest and most wonderful democratic experiment the world has ever known (with all the horrible disclaimers - genocide and a brutal system of slavery among the most notable). I am praying with all my might that Trump will not be reelected. I might have some minor differences with Dr. Paine but she is largely spot on. If Trump returns to the Oval Office it will be a disaster for the country and the world that I believe could ultimately resemble Old Testament prophecy or sci-fi. I know the internet is filled with folks that think their hair is on fire. I hate that and really have almost never done that. But when I see the guy that was responsible for 1/6 as the “presumptive nominee” for the Republican Party my head starts feeling uncomfortably warm.
Before you go high-fiving me let me be clear. I think gender abolition is not “following the science”. CRT is an absurdly naive ideology and Judeo-Christianity laid the foundation for the Enlightenment, Democracy and the end of slavery. But I am pragmatic. A vote for Trump is a vote against this upward arc.
Thanks for this. Many thanks.
Just came across your comment today March 21st 2025. WOW. You definitely approach history as it should be... as a tool for learning, warning, and encouragement.
Continue to share your insights ...'cause your foresight is uncannily prophetic.
Respect
👍🏾🙏🏾👊🏾✝️
What a find! A true veteran of the 20th century with all its heaven and hell.
I also discovered her on Dwarkesh's podcast, ordered her book, and now am glad to see this 💚 🥃
I am not convinced that Putin will attack NATO countries. the fact that so many experts take jt as given imply they think he’s mad. There is a Biden video explaining the red line in the early 90s that Putin says was crossed. Many experts completely disagree with the interviewee here.
Also the Trump animosity in the interview and comments are hard to understand, as he was the only president in recent memory not to get involved in a new war, proxy or otherwise, as well as creating normalization of relations between Israel and some Middle East countries. I don’t think people even understand why he got elected in 2016, and likely will this year. Most of the dictator-staying-in-power vibes come from the side with the guy in public office for 50-odd years and refusing to step aside.
Seriously? If Trumps approval of Jan. 6 and denial of election results doesn't convince you of his dictatorial ambitions perhaps his puppy love of N Korea style political leadership will. I get this all the time from my Trump friends, "no man, you just don't understand him", like the photo journalist defending Kurtz in 'Apocalypse Now'.
Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan group analyzed the 900+page Heritage Foundation document for systematically dismantling US democracy if Trump is reelected.
There is no way to downplay the danger.
Trump doesn't care about the US or democracy. He simply wants criminal impunity, money and power. The dark money pulling the strings want to eliminate all corporate regulations and taxation, right-wing religious extremists want to impose their religion on the country, and right-wing White supremacists want to roll back civil rights.
Trump cares more about crushing dissent at home than ideological adventures abroad. But that goes hand in hand with his indifference to the international order. Mussolini made the same arguments, blaming his enemies for World War 1. In the end he got dragged into war anyway and was on the wrong side of it because he, like Trump, loved strongmen.
DJ, where do you see evidence that Trump wants to "crush dissent at home"? COVID was a wanna-be dictator's wet dream: a public health emergency that could be leveraged for maximum personal power to crush dissent. He did not. Given every opportunity to aggregate power to himself, he deferred to states and governors, instead using federal authority to drive the one thing it needed to do: deliver a vaccine.
Trump's rhetoric worries me too. But actions speak louder than words. But despite chanting "lock her up" in 2016, he never tried to have his DOJ imprison Hillary Clinton or Comey or any other prominent Democrats. And he could have -- a federal prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich. However the Biden administration is pulling out all the stops to imprison Trump. Makes you wonder which side really has dictatorial ambitions.
This is just gaslighting. Supporting Jan 6 is not evidence of crushing dissent? The Georgia "find me the votes" call isn't evidence? And of course, he is crushing dissent first and foremost within the Republican party, destroying any and all candidates who do not kiss his ring.
Screaming "gaslighting" is a sign someone has has no actual answer to an argument.
And "crushing dissent with the Party" is exactly what every primary candidate in every political party has always done. That's literally the job in a primary.
I will say it again: Trump had every opportunity in 2020 to become a dictator. He took none of them.
Bet you wish you could take these comments back..!
Grand juries and juries are not, "The Biden Administration." Have you gone commie on us and don't even support the great system of justice we have in this nation?
Trump absolutely tried to put Hillary and others in prison. Don McGahn and his team wrote a memo explaining they had no basis and that if he did it we would likely be impeached.
https://apnews.com/article/060ca2399a744b4a9554dbd2ec276a90
Since then he's been impeached twice, but with no consequences in the Senate. He "learned his lesson" that he can act with impunity as long as there are fewer than 67 senators willing to convict.
Re: the Biden DOJ -- after January 6 multiple Senators and congressman said Trump should face legal consequences. The vast majority of the witnesses for the January 6 committee were Republicans *who worked for Trump.* It would be malpractice *not* to investigate.
DJ, can you honestly tell me that the NY fraud trial is "justice"? Even AP News is questioning that.
https://apnews.com/article/trump-fraud-business-law-courts-banks-lending-punishment-2ee9e509a28c24d0cda92da2f9a9b689
The Fani Willis shenanigans in Georgia stink to high heaven.
In both cases, these "prosecutors" ran for office promising to be persecutors: "I'll GET Donald Trump!" That alone is a terrible red flag. I would never vote for a DA or AG who promised to use the office to "go after" a particular person, regardless of how reprehensible I found that person's political views. It's just wrong.
Is it justice for a jury to give $80M to a aging advice columnist who allegedly lost her job because Trump "defamed her" by saying that he hadn't raped her at some unspecified time in the past that she can't remember? That whole case is just Kavanagh all over. And the NY Legislature passed a law to make the case possible, a law that appears to have been targeted to a single man: Donald Trump.
Trump is an ass. Trump may even be a criminal. But this process is reprehensible. If the Democrats are allowed to get away with this, lawfare will be their new standard campaign tactic for the next generation. Why run an campaign when you can use friendly prosecutors to tie up your opposition in court cases the whole time?
And it won't stay with Democrats. Republicans won't like it, but if those are the new rules, they will start doing the same thing. Do you really want to live in a banana republic? Because that's what we're creating here.
The Manhattan DA trial is specious, I'll grant that.
9 people voted to find Trump guilty. Take it up with them. The purpose of that verdict is show him that defamation has consequences, something he didn't learn from the first trial.
The NY AG trial is loooooong overdue. Allegations of shady behavior by the Trump Organization were talked about long before he was president. Most banks had stopped lending to him because of it.
The Georgia trial is a natural consequence of his attempts to intimidate Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and only possible because he correctly guessed that recording Trump's call with him was the best way to protect himself. He and the former Lt Governor have had to hire personal security for their families because of Trump's threats.
Liz Cheney and Adam Kinziger have spoken about how several House members told them they wanted to vote for impeachment but feared for their safety. There is no analog for that on the left.
God, this is delicious..
Boy were you wrong..
Amit, I understand where you’re coming from; it’s easy to take Putin’s words at face value. Still, I would invite you to reconsider your position. Take these words, for example:
“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.” [1]
To be clear, Putin sees Ukrainians, Poles, Lithuanians, etc. as wayward citizens. While he didn’t explicitly state so in the quote above, it’s clear that he sees them “as one people” in some of his other writings, such as his infamous essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”. [2] In his mind, the Russian Empire itself (“Russkiy Mir”) is the “rightful home” of all slavic peoples, and it is his job of restoring it to its former glory. Putin also voraciously reads Ivan Ilyin [3], a fascist, and follows his teachings to the letter to the extent that he can.
If Ukraine falls, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are next. Likely Poland, too, in order to close the Suwałki Gap (the area that keeps the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad inaccessible by land from Belarus and therefore, by proxy, from Russia).
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7632057
[2] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Ilyin
Insightful comment! I'd also point to Peter Zeihan's geographic analysis, which he (very) briefly synopsizes here: https://youtu.be/rkuhWA9GdCo?si=f08PibSeWQFbsbAq (this is a short 3.5 minutes long spotlight from a longer presentation he did in 2017).
Trump escalated Yemen and we were having as many combat casualties as we are having now under Trump. So this Iran proxy terrorist group killed troops in March of 2020 after we took out an Iranian general. And Iran also shot down a commercial plane half full of Canadians as retaliation for Trump killing the general.
This was great but still depressing for me - the level of support for Trump suggests we don’t yet understand the gravity of our geopolitical situation let alone domestic.
I’ve noticed a few CnC positions available in my area (some with Kratos) and toyed with the idea - I think those would be very helpful in a time of conflict. But future job growth in that sector is nearly stagnant and there are ample opportunities elsewhere.
At a personal level I struggle with how to help/prepare but I dearly want to mostly because I fear what’s to come. I’m getting back into shape, eating better, shooting more, and planning to buy some drones. I’m making faraday boxes for those close to me.
But I don’t think Americans want to change their minds yet.
When buying drones--it's very hard to source non-Chinese drones. Do your homework on all your drone parts, and test everything to the best of your ability to make sure your drones can't report any data back to other countries. You probably won't need to go as far as buying off the Blue List (a list of federally cleared drones), but that may be a place to start.
I found her thesis entirely unsatisfactory. This is nothing more than narrative history which Noah had criticised in the past, but now accepts without any push back. She points to no data. Just a bunch of case studies at best. Again, just a narrative. When Noah asks if there is any evidence for maritime powers being more democratic, she provides nothing. The only data point she uses is the one about the importance of shipping and coastal economies. She creates this entire thesis just from this one data point. She's not an academic. She's at best a narrative historian which is nothing more than a propagandist.
To all those might want to label a far rightist or leftist. I'm not. Although I'm not American I do support most of her prescriptions.
She didn't point to any data about maritime powers tending to be more democratic than continental powers because it's too apparent. U.S, UK, Japan are the only maritime powers and all of them are democratic, while Russia and China are authoritarian regimes. In the past, the U.K and U.S adopted democracy at a comparatively earlier time compared to continental powers like France, Prussia, all other empires in Europe and all other empires around the World.
It's not narrative history just because she wants to reach out to broader audiences, many of whom has no expertise in this area, by making it easier and more interesting to read.
Outstanding
Excellent observation,
Decent interview. Her international affairs and historical analysis is worth the read, but you shouldn't have gone into domestic politics. On that issue, she's completely blind to her biases. (Which makes me wonder about her biases on the other issues too, but I digress.)
"When only one opinion is acceptable and others are either shouted down or threatened with violence, that is called dictatorship"
Who in America is shouting down opinions today? It's not the Republicans mobbing university speakers. "Political correctness" came from the liberals. "Cancel culture" came from the liberals. The GOP is trying it now out of desperation, but they don't like it and aren't particularly good at it. Who in America is trying to jail the political opposition? Not Republicans. The lawfare is driven by liberals against Trump and anyone even remotely in his orbit. She's right though; that sort of behavior is dictatorial.
"Those who lose elections must accept their loss. That is how democracy works. Try harder to win legally the next time. Telling the truth, playing by the rules, and treating others with civility are also fundamental to the family values that Republicans claim to espouse. "
Why are Republicans supposed to play by Queensbury rules when the Democrats play by street rules?
"The Republican Party needs to return its core values of protecting U.S. national security and democracy."
Our largest national security threat today is the 2M people annually who stream across our Southern border largely unchecked and take up residence inside the United States. Republicans didn't do that. That's a Democrat creation. And most Republicans doubt that it was accidental.
The threat to democracy today isn't coming from the Right but from the Left. It is the Left that uses judges to overturn the will of the people. It is the Left that is using the powers of government to harass, bankrupt and imprison political opponents. It is the Left that is altering voting laws to shotgun ballots to every person and then let paid ballot harvesters "help you" fill them out. It is the Left that refuses to require ID to cast a ballot or even register to vote. It is the Left that is attempting to assert a liberal/progressive authoritarianism that seeks to subvert the will of the people. In short, it is the Left that is resistant to democracy. What the Left calls "populism" is actually "democracy".
"To fix America, Americans need to listen to each other, accommodate each other, compromise with each other"
This smacks of Rodney King's "can't we all just get along?" What if the answer is, "no, we can't." What if our differences are over issues that cannot be compromised on? What do we do then? The Left decided the Right was all a bunch of Nazis about 10 years ago. What compromise is possible with Nazis?
Make America Great Again was a slogan of optimism: given the right policies, America can be a great country. The Left hated that slogan. Why? Because they don't think America was ever "great". They've been taught America was founded on racism and bigotry, that white supremacy pervades our country and renders us irredeemable. In 2016, the Right answered that view of America with optimism: America has been great and can be again. But you don't hear that from the Trump campaign today. Why not? It isn't that Republicans have concluded that Democrats were right and America was never a great country; it's because many no longer believe that "great America" to be salvageable. And in light of the differences in outlook that Left and Right seem to have (increasingly they are theological not political) this is not an unreasonable conclusion. The Left appears to feel the same way; Hillary Clinton's moved from calling Trump voters deplorable in 2016 to wanting to put them in "re-education camps" last year.
Compromise is a 2 way street. And convincing yourself that 75M of your fellow Americans are little Himlers voting mindlessly for their fascist, orange, fuhrer is a very poor way to start a dialogue of compromise.
Anyway, good interview, Noah. I think her maritime / continental distinction is very interesting and I would love to read more of her on that subject. But her political analysis suffers from a severe case of TDS and lots of blind spots.
You wrote: "Those who lose elections must accept their loss. That is how democracy works. Try harder to win legally the next time. Telling the truth, playing by the rules, and treating others with civility are also fundamental to the family values that Republicans claim to espouse. "
Why are Republicans supposed to play by Queensbury rules when the Democrats play by street rules?
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Just compare Al Gore’s behavior in 2000 vs Trump in 2020 if you really think both sides behave the same way. You’re basically arguing that Trump can’t be held accountable for anything. By all means, when a Democrat tries to overthrow an election, lock him up. If we’re honest we know a Democrat who did one tenth of what Trump did, he would be in jail.
I agree 100% about Gore. the man is wrong on nearly policy, but I have immense respect for Gore's behavior in that election. I think that's a time thing not a partisan thing though. In 2000 we still had a largely functional republic with a high level of institutional trust; that's shot now. Were a Bush v Gore scenario to happen today (with Trump and Biden for example), I do see either candidate conceding: Trump because he's incapable of admitting error and Biden because he actually believes that Trump is a fascist dictator. It's worth noting that Stacey Abrams in Georgia refused to accept her 2018 election defeat just like Trump refused to accept his in 2020.
"You’re basically arguing that Trump can’t be held accountable for anything. "
No, I'm not. Some commentator about a year ago put it well: "no one should be above the law, but the law also shouldn't be used to target someone either." What's going on with Trump increasingly looks like targeting, especially the NY stuff. The AG and DA both ran on a platform of: "I'll get Donald Trump". That's not "equality before the law"; that's "targeting". Imagine for a moment if a Republican DA ran on a promise to "bankrupt abortion clinics" or to "destroy BLM" or to "get Nancy Pelosi" -- you would never think that was OK. And you would be right.
I have worked in investment real estate; what Trump did in valuing his properties for financing is 100% standard practice. You submit a value, the bank pushes comes up with a much lower value, then you negotiate. Making the loan is the bank's way of accepting the agreed valuation. And in this case, there literally is no victim. The loan was fully repaid. No one lost money. No one claimed fraud.
You say: "If we’re honest we know a Democrat who did one tenth of what Trump did, he would be in jail."
I would turn that around. If the actions described above were performed by anyone NOT named "Donald Trump, likely GOP Presidential nominee", that case would never have even been filed, and if it were, it would have been laughed out of court.
Insightful comment and spot on regarding her failure to address the political left in any meaningful way. It severely diminishes her credibility, which is regrettable as she otherwise has some very useful information and perspective.