Crypto is just branded serial numbers. You can start up Buttcoin today using the exact same (energy sucking) algorithms as Bitcoin. (In fact there are thousands of cryptocurrencies now.) The product would be identical--a record (serial numbers) kept on a blockchain. So it’s the name brand that has value--i.e. the perception in people’s heads. Think Beanie Babies without the trade dress protection.
It doesn't work like that. Let's replace "Bitcoin" by "Twitter" in your sentence :
"You can start up Twaddle today using the exact same algorithms as Twitter (In fact there are hundreds of social medias now). The product would be identical--a post containing content published somewhere on the Internet. So it’s the name brand that has value--i.e. the perception in people’s heads."
It's not entirely true. What gives value to Twitter and not to Twaddle is mostly the network effect. Same thing for Bitcoin.
The network effect is the inseparable from the brand. You can legally own the trademark which provides legal protection to the brand. You can’t own the network effect separately from that. The value is in being able to exclusively hold yourself out as Twitter where no one else can because Twitter and it’s network effects reside in the customers’ heads.
Interesting point of view. However, one point you don't mention is that after each bubble, the floor price of Bitcoin has always been higher than the previous floor, which shows that each bubble brings more private and corporate people who *really* believe in the future of Bitcoin and invest in it for the long term.
So what's your point of view when you say "Bitcoin would see at least one more big bubble (and crash)" : do you think that after the last bubble, 1) Bitcoin will collapse, or 2) that it will remain on a more stable price floor than before, perhaps further encouraging its use as a currency?
I'm definitely in the "stable price floor" camp, but it will take many more bubbles, each decreasing in size, to find the stable price. There's a paradox here: as the price is determined by more people to be stabilizing, those people buy BTC (or ETH) for the first time, and since most of the supply is held by early HODLers, the inelasticity means these purchases cause a spike in price. The bubbles won't stop. They will probably never stop. As Noah said (paraphrasing), unregulated markets _always_ result in bubbles.
“As for NFTs, the market for collectibles is not that big, but at least it’s something.”
I approximately three years, I have covered the college cost, or business startup of my great-niece and great-nephew, aged two and five years, via investing in rare books and modern art. Gains have prematurely been exponential. For example, purchase of a First Edition copy of Finnegans Wake (Faber & Faber) the list price is now 372% higher. Supply of certain collectibles is very restrictive and even more restrictive with time. Many First Editions of Moby-Dick burned in a warehouse fire. The value of certain rare books and modern art pieces never goes down. Furthermore, because these are gifts, my great-niece and great-nephew won’t owe one penny if income taxes on the gains. A case for an audit could possibly be made for an audit if my estate goes above a certain amount. But I can prevent this by purchasing more rare books and modern art. Insurance for the art, via Lloyds, is cheap, and covers the original purchase price. Storage of rare books in safety deposit boxes is even cheaper and safer. The point is that if an investor wants to make money buying a restricted asset (when there are no more coins to mine) like Bitcoin, why take unnecessary downside risk when there are so many other options?
Bitcoin will likely maintain it's value because it's embedded in our society at this point but the idea that it's useful for anything other than crime is laughable.
Crypto is the gift that keeps on giving for the sadist in me. First, I get to savor the intense frustration of the folks who hate crypto *SO MUCH* during the rally, and then I drink the tears of the true believers while they wail and gnash their teeth during the crash! A couple years later I get to do it all over again!
Technical question - what’s the difference between an ETF and a stable coin? I believe both involve an institution buying and selling to keep prices at a certain point. Is it possible for an ETF to become untethered from the underlying asset if there is too much volatility?
A spot ETF is nearly 100% backed by the real asset, or a safe yield-bearing asset that closely tracks the asset (e.g. a US treasury instead of an actual dollar, or an stETH instead of an ETH). Further, since it is easy to buy and sell an ETF, arbitraguers ensure that the price moves with the asset, nearly in unison. Not all ETFs are spot ETFs, but what Noah is hyped about here is the possibility of a BTC spot ETF.
👋🏻 Hi Noah! Subscriber here. A year ago, I went looking for a job in crypto, and joined https://fabrical.land . I've since risen to CTO here. Believe it or not, we _do_ have a model for putting land on the Ethereum blockchain, by placing the land into a nominee trust, where the operating agreement for the trust defines the beneficiary as the owner of a minted NFT.
You have good timing with this repost: We just announced (yesterday!) that we're partnering with NFTfi to enable on-chain USDC loans against vacant-land properties in the US.
I have no clue on how Bit works, but I am fascinated with bubbles having seen a few in my 74 yrs. History keeps repeating itself ad nauseum. Few learn. There's too many people and too much funny money..
For a certain kind of personality there is no way to lose with Crypto.
Successful success: I make millions in Crypto.
Unsuccessful success: Even if I lose money, my hormones surge ferociously along the way and I get to feel the X of emotional reality. I know that I am alive! I separate myself from the living dead who have their money in index funds. I can hold my head up when I walk into a bar.
Noah's chart clearly shows that every trough in price is X times higher than the previous trough. The lie is put to the pervasive perception that crypto is "too risky" by simply zooming out the time scale. Do you think purchasing real estate is "jumping off the roof" simply because the price fluctuates (wildly at times) during its permanent long-term upward trend?
Although I'm not willing to do the work I'm wondering if the upper trend of the troughs exceeds the return of other investments. Also, I wonder if the average crypto investor is skillful enough to time purchases and sales skillfully. Finally, I am 72 years old and have never experienced a real estate market where oscillations in price have been a tenth of what is experienced in crypto-- That is, leaving office space aside which seems to have been severely overbuilt.
You perhaps didn't read the article. The very first graph shows trough-to-trough returns.
Regarding real-estate fluctuation, the only thing different are the scales. The monetary changes for real estate are just as wild, just over shorter heights and longer periods of time. Median real estate in San Francisco between 2000 and today is up 5x, despite a wild 30% drop from 2006 to 2012.
The bottom line is, if you bought BTC at any time in the past, and you sell above $60k in the current run-up starting now, you'll have done better than if you bought a REIT at that time.
We all have different ways of evaluating risk. My experience with real estate market has been in New York, Pennsylvania, DC Metro, and Texas. I understand the basis of the economy and how people live and operate in these places. For me is a CA is a foreign place whose future I find hard to calculate. I just don't want my money there.
In Texas, the value of my house has appreciated 6X from 1999 to today, and it did not undergo any dip during the Great Recession.
Crypto is just branded serial numbers. You can start up Buttcoin today using the exact same (energy sucking) algorithms as Bitcoin. (In fact there are thousands of cryptocurrencies now.) The product would be identical--a record (serial numbers) kept on a blockchain. So it’s the name brand that has value--i.e. the perception in people’s heads. Think Beanie Babies without the trade dress protection.
Well isn't money just little green pieces of paper? :-)
Sure. Little green pieces of paper backed by men with guns and badges. :)
It doesn't work like that. Let's replace "Bitcoin" by "Twitter" in your sentence :
"You can start up Twaddle today using the exact same algorithms as Twitter (In fact there are hundreds of social medias now). The product would be identical--a post containing content published somewhere on the Internet. So it’s the name brand that has value--i.e. the perception in people’s heads."
It's not entirely true. What gives value to Twitter and not to Twaddle is mostly the network effect. Same thing for Bitcoin.
The network effect is the inseparable from the brand. You can legally own the trademark which provides legal protection to the brand. You can’t own the network effect separately from that. The value is in being able to exclusively hold yourself out as Twitter where no one else can because Twitter and it’s network effects reside in the customers’ heads.
Interesting point of view. However, one point you don't mention is that after each bubble, the floor price of Bitcoin has always been higher than the previous floor, which shows that each bubble brings more private and corporate people who *really* believe in the future of Bitcoin and invest in it for the long term.
So what's your point of view when you say "Bitcoin would see at least one more big bubble (and crash)" : do you think that after the last bubble, 1) Bitcoin will collapse, or 2) that it will remain on a more stable price floor than before, perhaps further encouraging its use as a currency?
I'm definitely in the "stable price floor" camp, but it will take many more bubbles, each decreasing in size, to find the stable price. There's a paradox here: as the price is determined by more people to be stabilizing, those people buy BTC (or ETH) for the first time, and since most of the supply is held by early HODLers, the inelasticity means these purchases cause a spike in price. The bubbles won't stop. They will probably never stop. As Noah said (paraphrasing), unregulated markets _always_ result in bubbles.
“As for NFTs, the market for collectibles is not that big, but at least it’s something.”
I approximately three years, I have covered the college cost, or business startup of my great-niece and great-nephew, aged two and five years, via investing in rare books and modern art. Gains have prematurely been exponential. For example, purchase of a First Edition copy of Finnegans Wake (Faber & Faber) the list price is now 372% higher. Supply of certain collectibles is very restrictive and even more restrictive with time. Many First Editions of Moby-Dick burned in a warehouse fire. The value of certain rare books and modern art pieces never goes down. Furthermore, because these are gifts, my great-niece and great-nephew won’t owe one penny if income taxes on the gains. A case for an audit could possibly be made for an audit if my estate goes above a certain amount. But I can prevent this by purchasing more rare books and modern art. Insurance for the art, via Lloyds, is cheap, and covers the original purchase price. Storage of rare books in safety deposit boxes is even cheaper and safer. The point is that if an investor wants to make money buying a restricted asset (when there are no more coins to mine) like Bitcoin, why take unnecessary downside risk when there are so many other options?
Bitcoin will likely maintain it's value because it's embedded in our society at this point but the idea that it's useful for anything other than crime is laughable.
Poor Larry “The Worst Economic Policy in 40 Years” Summers:
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/lets-get-real-the-american-rescue?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I had been thinking about your prediction as I watched Bitcoin rise! I thought "Noah will have a nice little nestegg for the holidays."
Crypto is the gift that keeps on giving for the sadist in me. First, I get to savor the intense frustration of the folks who hate crypto *SO MUCH* during the rally, and then I drink the tears of the true believers while they wail and gnash their teeth during the crash! A couple years later I get to do it all over again!
"Personally, I am still just HODLing on to the modest amount of BTC and ETH that I bought in 2017"
Same here!
This post doesn't really make sense but I liked it anyway
Where can I acquire the old fashioned Gator avatar?
the logo is everywhere, but the best is the vintage shirt with the logo that the gators official store sells.
Technical question - what’s the difference between an ETF and a stable coin? I believe both involve an institution buying and selling to keep prices at a certain point. Is it possible for an ETF to become untethered from the underlying asset if there is too much volatility?
A spot ETF is nearly 100% backed by the real asset, or a safe yield-bearing asset that closely tracks the asset (e.g. a US treasury instead of an actual dollar, or an stETH instead of an ETH). Further, since it is easy to buy and sell an ETF, arbitraguers ensure that the price moves with the asset, nearly in unison. Not all ETFs are spot ETFs, but what Noah is hyped about here is the possibility of a BTC spot ETF.
Thanks!
👋🏻 Hi Noah! Subscriber here. A year ago, I went looking for a job in crypto, and joined https://fabrical.land . I've since risen to CTO here. Believe it or not, we _do_ have a model for putting land on the Ethereum blockchain, by placing the land into a nominee trust, where the operating agreement for the trust defines the beneficiary as the owner of a minted NFT.
You have good timing with this repost: We just announced (yesterday!) that we're partnering with NFTfi to enable on-chain USDC loans against vacant-land properties in the US.
https://x.com/NFTfi/status/1732490024577302739?s=20
I have no clue on how Bit works, but I am fascinated with bubbles having seen a few in my 74 yrs. History keeps repeating itself ad nauseum. Few learn. There's too many people and too much funny money..
For a certain kind of personality there is no way to lose with Crypto.
Successful success: I make millions in Crypto.
Unsuccessful success: Even if I lose money, my hormones surge ferociously along the way and I get to feel the X of emotional reality. I know that I am alive! I separate myself from the living dead who have their money in index funds. I can hold my head up when I walk into a bar.
Conclusion: Noah's right. Crypto will be back.
Ahh, once more, the triumph of hope over experience.
If all the other kids were jumping off the roof, would you do it too? Absolutely.
Noah's chart clearly shows that every trough in price is X times higher than the previous trough. The lie is put to the pervasive perception that crypto is "too risky" by simply zooming out the time scale. Do you think purchasing real estate is "jumping off the roof" simply because the price fluctuates (wildly at times) during its permanent long-term upward trend?
Although I'm not willing to do the work I'm wondering if the upper trend of the troughs exceeds the return of other investments. Also, I wonder if the average crypto investor is skillful enough to time purchases and sales skillfully. Finally, I am 72 years old and have never experienced a real estate market where oscillations in price have been a tenth of what is experienced in crypto-- That is, leaving office space aside which seems to have been severely overbuilt.
You perhaps didn't read the article. The very first graph shows trough-to-trough returns.
Regarding real-estate fluctuation, the only thing different are the scales. The monetary changes for real estate are just as wild, just over shorter heights and longer periods of time. Median real estate in San Francisco between 2000 and today is up 5x, despite a wild 30% drop from 2006 to 2012.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_United_States_housing_bubble#/media/File:Median_housing_price_by_metro_area.webp
The bottom line is, if you bought BTC at any time in the past, and you sell above $60k in the current run-up starting now, you'll have done better than if you bought a REIT at that time.
We all have different ways of evaluating risk. My experience with real estate market has been in New York, Pennsylvania, DC Metro, and Texas. I understand the basis of the economy and how people live and operate in these places. For me is a CA is a foreign place whose future I find hard to calculate. I just don't want my money there.
In Texas, the value of my house has appreciated 6X from 1999 to today, and it did not undergo any dip during the Great Recession.