How can America be stabilized?

In the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump, America is the world's least stable Great Power.

By Ricardo Thomas - Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library

Here’s a little piece of American history you may or may not know. In 1975, within the span of less than three weeks, two different people tried and failed to assassinate President Gerald Ford. The first was Lynette “Squeaky” Fromme, a member of the Manson Cult. On September 5, 1975, she tried to shoot President Ford in Sacramento, but failed because she didn’t know how to use a gun. The second assassination attempt came just 17 days later on September 22, when Sara Jane Moore — a mentally unstable individual unaffiliated with any radical organization — fired two shots at President Ford with a revolver from 40 feet away, missing his head by 5 inches.

Today almost no one remembers those failed assassination attempts. They had little political significance, and they didn’t end up destabilizing the country. There were no reprisals, no crackdown, no nationwide panic, and no talk of civil war. Ford lost the election to Carter, but the nation continued its slow rightward turn, resulting in the election of Reagan four years later. The assassination attempts vanished quickly into memory as the country continued its slow process of calming down from the turbulent years of the late 60s and early 70s.

If the assassination attempt on former President Trump yesterday in Pennsylvania by Thomas Matthew Crooks followed the same pattern as the attempts by Fromme and Moore half a century ago, it would be a good thing for the country. Like Moore, the 20-year-old Crooks appears to have been a mentally disturbed individual with no obvious connection to any political organization, movement, or ideology — he was a registered Republican and an amateur gun enthusiast who sometimes espoused conservative rhetoric, but didn’t seem to be particularly obsessed with politics. (Originally it was reported that he had given $15 to a Democratic political action committee, but there’s a debate over whether that was a different Thomas Crooks. )

But many of Trump’s supporters are declaring that this seemingly random act of violence is the first shot in a fierce civil struggle between right and left. This is from a sitting U.S. Congressman:

And this is from a sitting U.S. senator:

This rhetoric was delivered in the heat of the moment, before the assassin’s identity became known. But it strongly suggests that Trump’s movement will use the assassination attempt as a pretext to accuse and persecute Trump’s political enemies after he (probably) returns to power later this year. (Update: Go read this excellent article by Derek Thompson on the different responses to assassination attempts in democratic and autocratic countries.)

In fact, going after his political enemies was already going to be a theme of Trump’s second presidency. Trump and his supporters feel — perhaps not entirely without reason in Trump’s case — that they have been legally persecuted by the Biden administration. They are eager to take what they see as retaliatory measures by taking legal actions against Democrats. Trump himself has called for the jailing of election officials whom he claims stole the 2020 election, and suggested a military tribunal for his political rival Liz Cheney. The assassination attempt seems certain to amplify these calls. Naturally, this will provoke a backlash, as Democrats feel increasingly cornered and endangered.

In other words, the U.S. is highly likely to remain in a state of extreme political instability for the rest of this decade. This is simply awful for both the U.S. and the world. America is arguably now the least politically stable of all the great powers — we’ve had a coup attempt and a major assassination attempt within the span of four years, and we’re looking at four more years of struggle over control of the country’s institutions. And this is coming at a time when the country faces its greatest external threat in at least half a century — or possibly ever.

Somehow, the country has to find its way back to the stability that a superpower requires. Unfortunately, these threats come at a time when most Americans are deeply exhausted from a decade of social strife and unrest, and may not have the will to fight for a functional nation.