I liked Reaganland. I also really liked the new HBO documentary about the Reagans. I didn't know he was literally using his wife, who was being advised by a psychic, to advise him on policy.
Another relevant book I just finished is "Break It Up" by Kreitner. I don't think there could be a more relevant book considering our times! It was an absolutely fantastic read.
- I too was caught up in the fury to take down hedge funds. Like most millennials, I saw my horizon trimmed (although less than most) as a consequence of the '08 financial crises. The chance to inflict pain on a system that transferred their risk and payment onto the public seemed pretty great, although more recent events have proven this to not be so. I still do wonder a few things though:
To what extent is this fury widespread? Is it just me and bunch of college educated dudes or
is this 'populist' anger, in fact, a larger anger?
Was this event illuminating, if not for the public at large, for a large section? Who knew about
'front-running' before this? How many people knew who Steve Cohen is or that his previous
hedge fund was taken down for insider trading before this?
As with many things political, might this, in a non-linear way, make regulation and/or taxes
more likely? I'd like to see more talk about utility of financial transaction tax or a capital gains
I sort of dig it when the left and right populists get together. I think thats a great prediction for the next decade. I really just want to lead a boring life. Oh... and tax the rich. A lot.
I'd feel more confident that you're right about the 20s if the so many Reps weren't making nice with Trump and his idiot followers. In the 70s, there was no major support for nonsense; there is now.
BTW, you should have promoted another article by your fellow columnist Max Hastings on why we should study war (because it's important if we want people in the world to live a good life): {NSN QNSJO3DWRGG6<GO>}
It seems that 90% of movements ultimately dissolve in to farce. But I don't believe we are out of the woods yet. Like Imperial Japanese soldiers holed up in a cave in a jungle until the '60's, we'll probably see more conspiracy-fueled violence (as well as insanity and complete retardedness) all through the '20's.
The effect of how things are amplified by the internet, from a tweet from Elon Musk to the chat groups inside Signal, must be considered as we look to history for patterns. What are the possibilities that you might be wrong?
Yeah if Mexico collapses it will cause a wave of refugees obviously. But it's worth noting that the Mexican immigration reversal has come during an unprecedented drug war that has killed tens of thousands of Mexicans every year, so the instability would have to be even bigger than that, I guess.
The older societies get, the less violent they get (all else, like lead poisoning, being equal). And due to the drop in birthrates, Mexico is likely to be even less violent (and revolution-prone) than it has been in the past.
The swing towards the Reagan GOP probably due more to increased overall violence due to increased lead poisoning. It was also towards the tail end of the New Deal/Great Society Dem coalition era. Each of the previous big spikes in political violence in the US did coincide with or come at the tail end of a tired party system that was falling apart, true. GOP dominance after the violence of the Civil War. The unrest and race-related violence around 1920 at the tail end of that era of GOP dominance. The political violence of the late ‘60’s/‘70’s at the tail end of the Dem-dominated New Deal/Great Society era. So we should see a swing to the Dems in the 2020’s. Also lines up well with Peter Leyden’s prediction that nationally, the US follows political trends in CA with a roughly 15 year lag.
Yeah, look at all those suckers who took reporters at their word when they were describing GameStop as Occupy Wall-Street 2.0. Don't they know the only thing less reliable than political journalism is finance journalism?
But I see where you are getting your optimism from. Things must be on the up and up. After all a bunch of upper middle class people managed to get some misleading press coverage which caused literally millions of people to go knowingly throw some money away just because they thought they were sticking it to the evil bastards on Wall Street who not only got away with blowing up the worlds economy and stealing lots of poor peoples houses, but got paid by Obama for doing so.
Who could possibly ask for a clearer sign that everything is A-OK in this worthless corrupt country?
I liked Reaganland. I also really liked the new HBO documentary about the Reagans. I didn't know he was literally using his wife, who was being advised by a psychic, to advise him on policy.
Another relevant book I just finished is "Break It Up" by Kreitner. I don't think there could be a more relevant book considering our times! It was an absolutely fantastic read.
affect*
One thing (with a few sub-things):
- I too was caught up in the fury to take down hedge funds. Like most millennials, I saw my horizon trimmed (although less than most) as a consequence of the '08 financial crises. The chance to inflict pain on a system that transferred their risk and payment onto the public seemed pretty great, although more recent events have proven this to not be so. I still do wonder a few things though:
To what extent is this fury widespread? Is it just me and bunch of college educated dudes or
is this 'populist' anger, in fact, a larger anger?
Was this event illuminating, if not for the public at large, for a large section? Who knew about
'front-running' before this? How many people knew who Steve Cohen is or that his previous
hedge fund was taken down for insider trading before this?
As with many things political, might this, in a non-linear way, make regulation and/or taxes
more likely? I'd like to see more talk about utility of financial transaction tax or a capital gains
tax increase.
I sort of dig it when the left and right populists get together. I think thats a great prediction for the next decade. I really just want to lead a boring life. Oh... and tax the rich. A lot.
It's cute when they get together but I think they fall to fighting pretty quick...
Whirlwind romance, but not true love.
Gerrr-rate stuff!!! Really. All the prognostications cast in future stones? I'll bet cash money on 75%
I'd feel more confident that you're right about the 20s if the so many Reps weren't making nice with Trump and his idiot followers. In the 70s, there was no major support for nonsense; there is now.
Besides Max Hastings, your Bloomberg colleagues Denning and He have a great article out this morning as well.
They are always great! :-)
BTW, you should have promoted another article by your fellow columnist Max Hastings on why we should study war (because it's important if we want people in the world to live a good life): {NSN QNSJO3DWRGG6<GO>}
Hastings is great!
It seems that 90% of movements ultimately dissolve in to farce. But I don't believe we are out of the woods yet. Like Imperial Japanese soldiers holed up in a cave in a jungle until the '60's, we'll probably see more conspiracy-fueled violence (as well as insanity and complete retardedness) all through the '20's.
Oof. Now there's an unhappy proposition.
The effect of how things are amplified by the internet, from a tweet from Elon Musk to the chat groups inside Signal, must be considered as we look to history for patterns. What are the possibilities that you might be wrong?
You wrote, " the big . . . wave . . . ain’t coming back." Please, grammar! It's "ain't comin' back."
Between The Age of Malaise and an Age of Unrest, are there good times, or was the era Between Iraq War I and the Housing Collapse something of a blip?
I don't know, maybe it goes unrest --> malaise --> silly --> optimistic --> unrest or something like that?
Couple of thoughts on the Bloomberg piece on immigration:
1. Might this take the relative current political stability of Mexico for granted?
2. Might Biden changes in the aslyum process, not path to citizenship, shift incentives in Central America?
Yeah if Mexico collapses it will cause a wave of refugees obviously. But it's worth noting that the Mexican immigration reversal has come during an unprecedented drug war that has killed tens of thousands of Mexicans every year, so the instability would have to be even bigger than that, I guess.
The older societies get, the less violent they get (all else, like lead poisoning, being equal). And due to the drop in birthrates, Mexico is likely to be even less violent (and revolution-prone) than it has been in the past.
The decade of malaise was followed by a pendulum swing with Reagan. What could that look like for us now?
Thinking about it now!
The swing towards the Reagan GOP probably due more to increased overall violence due to increased lead poisoning. It was also towards the tail end of the New Deal/Great Society Dem coalition era. Each of the previous big spikes in political violence in the US did coincide with or come at the tail end of a tired party system that was falling apart, true. GOP dominance after the violence of the Civil War. The unrest and race-related violence around 1920 at the tail end of that era of GOP dominance. The political violence of the late ‘60’s/‘70’s at the tail end of the Dem-dominated New Deal/Great Society era. So we should see a swing to the Dems in the 2020’s. Also lines up well with Peter Leyden’s prediction that nationally, the US follows political trends in CA with a roughly 15 year lag.
Yeah, look at all those suckers who took reporters at their word when they were describing GameStop as Occupy Wall-Street 2.0. Don't they know the only thing less reliable than political journalism is finance journalism?
But I see where you are getting your optimism from. Things must be on the up and up. After all a bunch of upper middle class people managed to get some misleading press coverage which caused literally millions of people to go knowingly throw some money away just because they thought they were sticking it to the evil bastards on Wall Street who not only got away with blowing up the worlds economy and stealing lots of poor peoples houses, but got paid by Obama for doing so.
Who could possibly ask for a clearer sign that everything is A-OK in this worthless corrupt country?
If you are looking for an actual good take on GameStop: https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/the-cantillon-effect-and-gamestop
The GameStop saga is capable of uniting those who believe that capitalism can make them rich and those who want to eat the rich.