For my money, yours is a contender for the best body of work about the 2024 election. (Up there with Klein's columns, Bob Woodward's WAR, and Matt Yglesias's shitposting.)
No bullshit, no filler -- just the must-read arguments.
Thank you, Noah, for posting like democracy depends on it.
For what it’s worth…I know swing voters *never* do this kind of comparison, but the extraordinary outperformance of the US compared to every other developed country, starting from a higher base, in a way that has made the US a *more* egalitarian society rather than less, should make it an absolute slam dunk for the party of government.
Noah, they talk in sports about grinding it out. Making an effort every minute of the game and every game of the season. I am very impressed to see you grinding it out for Harris.
My 5th reason to vote against Trump: how many more lies do I have to listen to? Not that we don't have to keep an eye on every leader.
Hi, Noah. I respect your political opinions and love your non-political content . . . but I didn't subscribe to be inundated with politics including "Trump hate". I do not like either candidate but your blog posts are now lacking balance: Harris has her liabilities too and you should discuss those. 1/2 of the country disagrees with you so show some respect. Do you offer a prorated refund when someone unsubscribes? Thanks for your thoughts, analysis, etc. . . . up until now <g>.
"1/2 of the country disagrees with you so show some respect" <-- I respect that 1/2 of the country enough to give them my honest assessments. To cater to their political sentiments by distorting or concealing my honest assessments would be an act of deep disrespect.
The purpose of Noahpinion is not to tell people what they want to hear; it's to tell them what I think. My promise to you is that you'll always get my honest, unvarnished assessments of what's going on in the world. If you don't find that valuable, no worries; you don't have to read this blog, and I wish you good luck finding one that feels more gratifying.
There have been quite a few posts that criticize things that Biden or Harris have done or stand for but this doesn’t have to be repeated with each post to be able to understand things in their totality.
All due to the influence of FOX News and its lesser imitators, which have collectively created an "alternative facts" bubble for 35% of the country. Where lies--like massive voter fraud by pet-eating illegals--are the order of the day. Unless some form of the Fairness Doctrine is reinstated, the far right spectrum of the 4th Estate will provide entertainment; but not news.
True. When you spend year after year intentionally pushing lies to a large group of people--like that the Dems murder unwanted babies immediately after birth; or that they give illegals the right to vote; that the capitol was not sacked on Jan. 6th; or that crime is the highest it's ever been--and then actually present any evidence to the contrary, you are not believed.
There are still people who believe Hitler was a truly great man, and that the Holocaust did not happen.
Listen to the testimonies of many of the convicted Jan. 6th insurrectionists. Who 100% believed what FOX had been telling them about the need to fight a stolen election.
I think you perhaps underplay the damage Trump could do to the economy. While this time around I have not hear him threatening to default on the national debt, but he could still engender a financial crisis. The 2008 financial crisis was largely created by the Bush administrations financial deregulation coupled with aggressive action against states that tried to go after financial firms that flouted the law.
I don't have a vote since I live in Britain, but I can tell you European leaders are terrified of a Trump presidency and its implications for NATO, the war in Ukraine, Chinese aggression against Taiwan, the world economy and world trade and the potential collapse of the world order underpinned by the US since 1945. A return to 1930s isolationism by the US is likely to hit Red States more than anywhere else. It reminds me of the saying 'Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad'
We just recently returned from a driving holiday around the UK, mostly Northern England and Scotland. Spoke with a lot of people in pubs, Uber drivers, etc. Sounds like you guys have your own problems. Throwing people in jail for wrong-speak, and making yourselves completely energy dependent. Most young people we spoke with were struggling to get by. Owning a car, let alone a home, was not in their immediate future. Nor was a good job, whatever that means.
Everyone was extremely polite and nice, though. Did not get any anti-tourist vibes.
As an Indian, I do hope Americans vote for Harris because there's a slim hope that she can look beyond the BJP's identarian politics the way she has with Israel's genocidal politics (although, yes, Hamas is way worse) and truly convince India to be an ally and abandon its non-aligned foreign policy and convince American CEOs to build in India for the world. It's been a pipe dream for so many of us that may not materialise as Southeast Asia is just easier to use as a manufacturing base for Chinese bosses who ultimately want to have Chinese food when they visit their joint venture partners and do not want to piss off the CCP by visiting a country that they think of as a strategic rival.
Well said, there is so much promise of a world where democracies unite and help each other economically. I'd love to see closer integration between democracies and I am hoping Noah can write more about the promise of India in the coming years. It is a long game and I am also hopeful that BJP doesn't go the route it looks like it is going...
He's written about it often but I think he doesn't quite get how bean counters think it terms of costs, CEOs think in terms of efficiency and speed of delivery and suppliers care about cultural similarities with partners. Outsourcing did go from Japan to Korea/Singapore to China/Taiwan and it will only go to India if policymakers put tbeir thumb on the scale. They won't and businesses will friendshore operations in Malaysia/Indonesia which will turncoat and become anti-West in a decade. India didn't even want to be a rival to China until some soldiers picked a pointless fight high up in the mountains
Well written and defended Noah. One of your best ever.
I’m praying for a Republican Senate just. Just in case Harris wins. Her comments on removing the filibuster, expanding the Supreme Court, a wealth tax and her inability to answer simple questions gives me pause.
You make a reasonable case, but I can't agree. If the Democrats in power were like Noah, I would vote for them, but they're not. FWIW I think a Harris administration would be better for the US over the next 4 years, but what about the next 40? The Democrats are simply a continuation of the bureaucratic elite that has been running the country for the last 50 years. They have had their successes, but it has run its course. It's now an entrenched, bloated, and risk averse bureaucracy so unproductive it has no chance to compete with China. We went from the country that put a man on the moon to the country that delayed a rocket launch for three months to bicker over a sprinkler system in Texas. Even if they know all the right moves, they won't be able to execute.
Furthermore the elites of the Democratic party are so entrenched that they feel so entitled to their power that they see any dissent as a threat and will use every lever of power to attack it. They see the first amendment not as a fundamental right, but as an unfortunate obstacle to their power. They will stretch the laws to ban whatever they declare "hate speech" or "misinformation" and put in place the judges they need to "reinterpret" the first amendment in their favor.
Anyone who succeeds in private business is a target of their envy. They are people who have never worked a real job where they have to be productive see wealth as a fixed quantity that is theirs for the taking and not something created by those who own it. They are the type of people who advance through political maneuvering and sticking to the party line to please those above them rather than by generating revenue.
They may make some changes. They may deregulate a few things. But they will never cut deep enough or really fix anything. They won't fundamentally change the system because they are the system. Change and innovation, which we really need right now, is a threat to them, and endless bureaucracy to prevent is is a defense against it.
So I will vote for Trump. He's not competent. He won't fix anything. But he may break things, and that might be enough to give him a chance to build something better after him. And his worst impulses will be constrained by the realities of democracy. If he actually tries to deport 20 million workers, or cut the budget by $2 trillion, he will be stopped by smarter members of his party who realize what that will do to their careers. He is an agent of chaos, but sometimes you need a little chaos, and it will be controlled chaos.
The Cultural Revolution consisted of the government in the name of equity denouncing and growing after the wealthy, closing schools and causing riots and chaos by recruited student activists, suppressing free speech and dissent and jailing political enemies. I see more similarities with the current administration than with Trump’s.
If anything, the Red Guard analogy better captures the political Right and its assortment of far-right militias and conspiracy quacks, as well as the cult of personality around Donald Trump
“You partisans” I never said it was the end of American democracy. In fact, you don’t even know me so I think it might be better for you to not assume what I believe.
Trump is a convicted sexual predator, convicted by a jury he and his defense counsel approved.
Trump is a convicted felon on 34 counts, convicted by a jury he and his defense counsel approved.
Trump is a failed businessman. How do you go broke in the casino business. If Trump had taken his inheritance from his father and put it in an S&P 500 Index Fund, he would be multiples richer.
China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea are all in economic trouble. I recommend people have friendships with people who have left these countries but left family behind. For example, a Chinese-American will tell you how corruption has long been a problem in China, which is why it’s so difficult to sit in Beijing, dictate policy, and expect provincial leaders to conscientiously carry out policy. China’s economy is a wreck in the wake of over-investment in real estate. All the provincial governments are bankrupt. Violent crime is widespread and still increasing. China’s boasted of its enforcement of a successful pandemic policy. That blew up in Xi’s face. China is manufacturing anything and everything in an effort to stimulate its economy. This has resulted in a glut of Chinese goods entering global markets, triggering the beginning of tariffs by other countries to protect their own manufacturing sectors. China won’t be making friendships doing this. I don’t think the mainstream press realized how badly the Chinese economy has been damaged. China needs outside help/cooperation from other countries to repair it economy. Attacking Taiwan just isn’t in the immediate future. In a sense, the outside world could strategically limit just the right amount of trade with China to slow its efforts to restore the economy. This buys additional time needed for other countries to manufacture munitions and redesign, build-out new military technologies and planning for any future conflicts. In short, China can’t afford a war.
There is no way in hell that Xi is happy with Putin making nice with North Korea and bringing in North Korean troops to the Ukraine War. North Korea has been a problem for China. North Korea is supposed to take orders from China, not Russia. Some alliance, eh?
Iran is so scared of Israel and its allies that it gave the U.S. a heads-up before it launched missiles at Israel. That was pulling a big punch. The U.S. just sent a second leading-edge missile system to Israel and made it operational in less than two weeks. The U.S. also began embargoing Iranian oil tankers that turned off their identification signals, reducing the amount of money Iran can spend manufacturing weapons.
The U.S. and its allies are using confiscated Russian oligarchs property as collateral to pay for more munitions to provide the Ukrainians. Putin is throwing large sums of money at men who will join the military. Russia’s birth rate has fallen off a cliff (the same holds true in China, and Iran). It’s so bad that Russian newborn babies are wrapped in Russian flags a used in promoting family formation.
For my money, yours is a contender for the best body of work about the 2024 election. (Up there with Klein's columns, Bob Woodward's WAR, and Matt Yglesias's shitposting.)
No bullshit, no filler -- just the must-read arguments.
Thank you, Noah, for posting like democracy depends on it.
Thank you!!
> and Matt Yglesias's shitposting.
hahaha
For what it’s worth…I know swing voters *never* do this kind of comparison, but the extraordinary outperformance of the US compared to every other developed country, starting from a higher base, in a way that has made the US a *more* egalitarian society rather than less, should make it an absolute slam dunk for the party of government.
Agreed.
Noah, they talk in sports about grinding it out. Making an effort every minute of the game and every game of the season. I am very impressed to see you grinding it out for Harris.
My 5th reason to vote against Trump: how many more lies do I have to listen to? Not that we don't have to keep an eye on every leader.
Bravo. Again, bravo
Hi, Noah. I respect your political opinions and love your non-political content . . . but I didn't subscribe to be inundated with politics including "Trump hate". I do not like either candidate but your blog posts are now lacking balance: Harris has her liabilities too and you should discuss those. 1/2 of the country disagrees with you so show some respect. Do you offer a prorated refund when someone unsubscribes? Thanks for your thoughts, analysis, etc. . . . up until now <g>.
"1/2 of the country disagrees with you so show some respect" <-- I respect that 1/2 of the country enough to give them my honest assessments. To cater to their political sentiments by distorting or concealing my honest assessments would be an act of deep disrespect.
The purpose of Noahpinion is not to tell people what they want to hear; it's to tell them what I think. My promise to you is that you'll always get my honest, unvarnished assessments of what's going on in the world. If you don't find that valuable, no worries; you don't have to read this blog, and I wish you good luck finding one that feels more gratifying.
It's blog of his opinions so why would you expect balance?
I won't be voting for Harris, but I think Noah makes one of the best cases I've heard.
Why won't you be voting for Harris?
You should totally reconsider, on the strength of Noah's case here!
Alternatively, I'd be interested to hear your stronger case to *not* reconsider.
Edit: Oh, I see your other comment now!
Oh shut up.
There have been quite a few posts that criticize things that Biden or Harris have done or stand for but this doesn’t have to be repeated with each post to be able to understand things in their totality.
All due to the influence of FOX News and its lesser imitators, which have collectively created an "alternative facts" bubble for 35% of the country. Where lies--like massive voter fraud by pet-eating illegals--are the order of the day. Unless some form of the Fairness Doctrine is reinstated, the far right spectrum of the 4th Estate will provide entertainment; but not news.
True. When you spend year after year intentionally pushing lies to a large group of people--like that the Dems murder unwanted babies immediately after birth; or that they give illegals the right to vote; that the capitol was not sacked on Jan. 6th; or that crime is the highest it's ever been--and then actually present any evidence to the contrary, you are not believed.
There are still people who believe Hitler was a truly great man, and that the Holocaust did not happen.
Listen to the testimonies of many of the convicted Jan. 6th insurrectionists. Who 100% believed what FOX had been telling them about the need to fight a stolen election.
I think you perhaps underplay the damage Trump could do to the economy. While this time around I have not hear him threatening to default on the national debt, but he could still engender a financial crisis. The 2008 financial crisis was largely created by the Bush administrations financial deregulation coupled with aggressive action against states that tried to go after financial firms that flouted the law.
I don't have a vote since I live in Britain, but I can tell you European leaders are terrified of a Trump presidency and its implications for NATO, the war in Ukraine, Chinese aggression against Taiwan, the world economy and world trade and the potential collapse of the world order underpinned by the US since 1945. A return to 1930s isolationism by the US is likely to hit Red States more than anywhere else. It reminds me of the saying 'Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad'
We just recently returned from a driving holiday around the UK, mostly Northern England and Scotland. Spoke with a lot of people in pubs, Uber drivers, etc. Sounds like you guys have your own problems. Throwing people in jail for wrong-speak, and making yourselves completely energy dependent. Most young people we spoke with were struggling to get by. Owning a car, let alone a home, was not in their immediate future. Nor was a good job, whatever that means.
Everyone was extremely polite and nice, though. Did not get any anti-tourist vibes.
Amen. Hope lots of swing state voters will read this.
> I’m not going to come throw eggs at your house, or scream at you in a restaurant.
Hey, I volunteer
Honestly Noah, yours is the best and most balanced analysis I’ve encountered in quite some time. I look forward to every post.
I was sorta hoping the "4 reasons TO vote for Harris" would have something I could use to bend the ears of Jill Stein voters...
But in my experience, most people who are voting for Stein are doing so exactly because of point #2 you mentioned as a reason to vote for Harris.
Make of this what you will.
Yes. They are idiots. Ignore them.
As an Indian, I do hope Americans vote for Harris because there's a slim hope that she can look beyond the BJP's identarian politics the way she has with Israel's genocidal politics (although, yes, Hamas is way worse) and truly convince India to be an ally and abandon its non-aligned foreign policy and convince American CEOs to build in India for the world. It's been a pipe dream for so many of us that may not materialise as Southeast Asia is just easier to use as a manufacturing base for Chinese bosses who ultimately want to have Chinese food when they visit their joint venture partners and do not want to piss off the CCP by visiting a country that they think of as a strategic rival.
Well said, there is so much promise of a world where democracies unite and help each other economically. I'd love to see closer integration between democracies and I am hoping Noah can write more about the promise of India in the coming years. It is a long game and I am also hopeful that BJP doesn't go the route it looks like it is going...
He's written about it often but I think he doesn't quite get how bean counters think it terms of costs, CEOs think in terms of efficiency and speed of delivery and suppliers care about cultural similarities with partners. Outsourcing did go from Japan to Korea/Singapore to China/Taiwan and it will only go to India if policymakers put tbeir thumb on the scale. They won't and businesses will friendshore operations in Malaysia/Indonesia which will turncoat and become anti-West in a decade. India didn't even want to be a rival to China until some soldiers picked a pointless fight high up in the mountains
Well written and defended Noah. One of your best ever.
I’m praying for a Republican Senate just. Just in case Harris wins. Her comments on removing the filibuster, expanding the Supreme Court, a wealth tax and her inability to answer simple questions gives me pause.
Sam
You make a reasonable case, but I can't agree. If the Democrats in power were like Noah, I would vote for them, but they're not. FWIW I think a Harris administration would be better for the US over the next 4 years, but what about the next 40? The Democrats are simply a continuation of the bureaucratic elite that has been running the country for the last 50 years. They have had their successes, but it has run its course. It's now an entrenched, bloated, and risk averse bureaucracy so unproductive it has no chance to compete with China. We went from the country that put a man on the moon to the country that delayed a rocket launch for three months to bicker over a sprinkler system in Texas. Even if they know all the right moves, they won't be able to execute.
Furthermore the elites of the Democratic party are so entrenched that they feel so entitled to their power that they see any dissent as a threat and will use every lever of power to attack it. They see the first amendment not as a fundamental right, but as an unfortunate obstacle to their power. They will stretch the laws to ban whatever they declare "hate speech" or "misinformation" and put in place the judges they need to "reinterpret" the first amendment in their favor.
Anyone who succeeds in private business is a target of their envy. They are people who have never worked a real job where they have to be productive see wealth as a fixed quantity that is theirs for the taking and not something created by those who own it. They are the type of people who advance through political maneuvering and sticking to the party line to please those above them rather than by generating revenue.
They may make some changes. They may deregulate a few things. But they will never cut deep enough or really fix anything. They won't fundamentally change the system because they are the system. Change and innovation, which we really need right now, is a threat to them, and endless bureaucracy to prevent is is a defense against it.
So I will vote for Trump. He's not competent. He won't fix anything. But he may break things, and that might be enough to give him a chance to build something better after him. And his worst impulses will be constrained by the realities of democracy. If he actually tries to deport 20 million workers, or cut the budget by $2 trillion, he will be stopped by smarter members of his party who realize what that will do to their careers. He is an agent of chaos, but sometimes you need a little chaos, and it will be controlled chaos.
Sounds like a US version of Mao's Cultural Revolution. What could possibly go wrong with that plan?
The Cultural Revolution consisted of the government in the name of equity denouncing and growing after the wealthy, closing schools and causing riots and chaos by recruited student activists, suppressing free speech and dissent and jailing political enemies. I see more similarities with the current administration than with Trump’s.
If anything, the Red Guard analogy better captures the political Right and its assortment of far-right militias and conspiracy quacks, as well as the cult of personality around Donald Trump
You do?
Lol if trump gets elected and breaks things, you’ll be looking at a Dem trifecta in 2028 that will dictate whatever comes after Trump
I thought you partisans a,ways say if Trump wins it’s the end of democracy.
It'd be irrelevant. Xi has announced 2027 as the year he'll move on Taiwan.
“You partisans” I never said it was the end of American democracy. In fact, you don’t even know me so I think it might be better for you to not assume what I believe.
Thank you for laying out your reasoning. Unfortunately I think it is extremely silly.
Maybe try responding to Noah point by point. Which points is he wrong about, in either the Trump or Kamala section?
> FWIW I think a Harris administration would be better for the US over the next 4 years, but what about the next 40?
Asked and answered: It would be better for the US over the next 40 as well.
Here’s three reasons to vote for Harris:
Trump is a convicted sexual predator, convicted by a jury he and his defense counsel approved.
Trump is a convicted felon on 34 counts, convicted by a jury he and his defense counsel approved.
Trump is a failed businessman. How do you go broke in the casino business. If Trump had taken his inheritance from his father and put it in an S&P 500 Index Fund, he would be multiples richer.
China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea are all in economic trouble. I recommend people have friendships with people who have left these countries but left family behind. For example, a Chinese-American will tell you how corruption has long been a problem in China, which is why it’s so difficult to sit in Beijing, dictate policy, and expect provincial leaders to conscientiously carry out policy. China’s economy is a wreck in the wake of over-investment in real estate. All the provincial governments are bankrupt. Violent crime is widespread and still increasing. China’s boasted of its enforcement of a successful pandemic policy. That blew up in Xi’s face. China is manufacturing anything and everything in an effort to stimulate its economy. This has resulted in a glut of Chinese goods entering global markets, triggering the beginning of tariffs by other countries to protect their own manufacturing sectors. China won’t be making friendships doing this. I don’t think the mainstream press realized how badly the Chinese economy has been damaged. China needs outside help/cooperation from other countries to repair it economy. Attacking Taiwan just isn’t in the immediate future. In a sense, the outside world could strategically limit just the right amount of trade with China to slow its efforts to restore the economy. This buys additional time needed for other countries to manufacture munitions and redesign, build-out new military technologies and planning for any future conflicts. In short, China can’t afford a war.
There is no way in hell that Xi is happy with Putin making nice with North Korea and bringing in North Korean troops to the Ukraine War. North Korea has been a problem for China. North Korea is supposed to take orders from China, not Russia. Some alliance, eh?
Iran is so scared of Israel and its allies that it gave the U.S. a heads-up before it launched missiles at Israel. That was pulling a big punch. The U.S. just sent a second leading-edge missile system to Israel and made it operational in less than two weeks. The U.S. also began embargoing Iranian oil tankers that turned off their identification signals, reducing the amount of money Iran can spend manufacturing weapons.
The U.S. and its allies are using confiscated Russian oligarchs property as collateral to pay for more munitions to provide the Ukrainians. Putin is throwing large sums of money at men who will join the military. Russia’s birth rate has fallen off a cliff (the same holds true in China, and Iran). It’s so bad that Russian newborn babies are wrapped in Russian flags a used in promoting family formation.
It's a historically axiomatic that when dictators screw up domestically, they create foreign wars.
Trump derangement syndrome. Get help.
Trump Derangement Syndrome means supporting Trump, despite all of the very obvious reasons not to do so.
Ah TDS... a syndrome that almost exclusively applies to the diagnoser rather than the diagnosee.
You responded to a well argued article with a bullshit talking point. Totally pathetic.