Thanks for the article, I think this needed to be said.
As a side-note:
"“Negative partisanship” — the hatred of anything that’s perceived as being aligned or associated with the opposing party —" As a European citizen, that's the impression I get about the USA, looking in from the outside.
If Biden had declared 'We have no dog in this fight' and ignored Ukraine's plea for military aid, the very Republican people who now decry that aid would have been the first to demand it and accuse Biden of abandoning the USA's most important allies (Europe) to their miserable fate. Conversely, if Trump had still been in office and done as Biden does now, Democrats would have accused him of war-mongering the world into WW3.
As a subscriber, I'd prefer that you stick to writing about economics. That's a subject you've studied and can contribute to. This post was juvenile in its reasoning and its language.
“More generally, the evidence is clear that Russia’s new imperialists see their country’s mission as one of regaining control over territories it feels it lost when the Soviet Union fell — former USSR republics like Ukraine and the Baltics, former Warsaw Pact countries like Poland, and even parts of Germany.”
A Russian TV variety show repackaged by a Ukrainian pro-business, propaganda group is no more convincing than a Pravda report or a CCP spokesman. Sorry, Noah, but you didn't even come close to making this case. "To Berlin" written on tanks? Really?
"Russia’s new imperialists see their country’s mission as one of regaining control over territories it feels it lost when the Soviet Union fell"
This gets to the heart of the matter. Either it is imperialism for a large and powerful country to seek to influence, cajole, and even topple rival governments... or it isn't. If it is, and "imperialism" is bad, America has a lot of explaining to do: Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and our hands aren't exactly clean in Ukraine either. Anyone unwilling to repudiate the Monroe Doctrine is pretty hypocritical to refuse Russia and Japan and China their own spheres of influence.
"Relentless anti-Ukraine messaging by right-wing media figures like Tucker Carlson has taken its toll"
Or... the portion of the populace least inclined to view America as a global policeman (which tends to overlap with the Republican Party) has started to come to its senses. Noah wants to paint this as a negative, but I'm unclear why Americans NOT wanting to fight a war on the front porch of a major nuclear power is a bad thing. Of course, if one believes that Putin is Hitler redux, then he will view this differently. But if you treat every peace proposal as Munich, Ukraine will be 100% women and children within a few years.
This poll can also be read this way: "a remarkably bipartisan consensus supports Ukraine, with more than half the country saying they believe America should provide as much or more aid than it currently is, including 40% of Republicans agreeing with this sentiment." There's imperialism for you: Americans willing to make money on arms sales (subsidized by their own government) while Ukrainians do all the dying.
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I have rarely so agreed with the final conclusions of an article and so disagreed with its reasoning. I hope the EU takes this advice and starts defending itself -- it's long past time. However, that hope is not rooted in a desire for my own nation to start "refocusing on China".
There is a saying about European royalty: "There was a time that the law and the consent of the governed clothed kings in a power that is nearly unimaginable, but rarely did they make use of it." Let us learn from this example. A superpower should have the strongest military and should use it rarely.
It isn't time for America to refocus on China. It's time for America to do what we should have done at the end of the Cold War: refocus on America.
Important to note that it's not just negative partisanship, which could have been expressed by an ultra-hawk position. The dominant faction in the Republican party is fascist (Biden was being charitable in saying "semi") and they correctly see Putin as an ideological ally, and backer of Trump.
Europe needs to be prepared for the likelihood that the US won't merely get distracted, it will change sides.
FYI: I worked as a full-time volunteer as a member of the Oklahoma Medical Reserve Corps in the Tulsa Covid-19 POD which vaccinated 2,000 patients each day.
Noah, I think you're right that 'the United States can’t be counted on to be a permanent trump card against' Russia, but I don't think that necessarily means that 'If Europe’s great enemy is likely to be relentless, its great ally is likely to be fickle and inconstant.'
Possibly, but not necessarily. I'd bet on a Russian systemic collapse before an American one.
I find it somewhat amusing and also saddening that you talk about "negative partisanship" as though it's a bad thing, then immediately blame Republicans for it, thus reinforcing exactly that.
Tucker Carlson's behavior has of course been completely reprehensible (as always), but from what I saw, it was the left that started this divide and continued to widen it. From inventing a fake Russian scandal to try to discredit Trump, to claiming that all right-wing engagement on Twitter came from Russian bots, the left has also done plenty to damage the unity of the USA's response to Russia's aggression.
A solution to this sort of negative partisanship is not going to come from simply recognizing that it exists and then blaming the other side for it; that's just lampshading the issue while perpetuating it.
Excellent article Noah! I’m would also be interested as to what role Turkey will play going forth. If I’m not mistaken they have the 2nd largest standing army in NATO yet culturally and politically have much more in common with the Russians, including their neo-Ottoman imperial expansion aspirations, and seem to be helping the Russians evade sanctions. There is much, much more they can do if Turkey really wanted to hurt the Russians. Are they going to continue playing both sides?
As a subscriber, I am happy to see posts like this.
Thanks for the article, I think this needed to be said.
As a side-note:
"“Negative partisanship” — the hatred of anything that’s perceived as being aligned or associated with the opposing party —" As a European citizen, that's the impression I get about the USA, looking in from the outside.
If Biden had declared 'We have no dog in this fight' and ignored Ukraine's plea for military aid, the very Republican people who now decry that aid would have been the first to demand it and accuse Biden of abandoning the USA's most important allies (Europe) to their miserable fate. Conversely, if Trump had still been in office and done as Biden does now, Democrats would have accused him of war-mongering the world into WW3.
Any way you slice it...
Well, that's at least how it seems to me.
How sure are we that those tanks don't say "to Berlin" because they're left over from World War II?
As a subscriber, I'd prefer that you stick to writing about economics. That's a subject you've studied and can contribute to. This post was juvenile in its reasoning and its language.
“Militarily, Europe will be able to outmatch Russia — if it tries to do so.” Frankly it’s a big if.
Although Poland with its purchase of 485 Himars systems shows the way. As well as few others.
“More generally, the evidence is clear that Russia’s new imperialists see their country’s mission as one of regaining control over territories it feels it lost when the Soviet Union fell — former USSR republics like Ukraine and the Baltics, former Warsaw Pact countries like Poland, and even parts of Germany.”
That’s not clear at all. It’s a fantasy.
Didn’t see anyone else mention it but did you mean to pun “Trump card” with a capital T or autocorrect?
"Russia is committed to imperialism in Europe"
A Russian TV variety show repackaged by a Ukrainian pro-business, propaganda group is no more convincing than a Pravda report or a CCP spokesman. Sorry, Noah, but you didn't even come close to making this case. "To Berlin" written on tanks? Really?
"Russia’s new imperialists see their country’s mission as one of regaining control over territories it feels it lost when the Soviet Union fell"
This gets to the heart of the matter. Either it is imperialism for a large and powerful country to seek to influence, cajole, and even topple rival governments... or it isn't. If it is, and "imperialism" is bad, America has a lot of explaining to do: Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and our hands aren't exactly clean in Ukraine either. Anyone unwilling to repudiate the Monroe Doctrine is pretty hypocritical to refuse Russia and Japan and China their own spheres of influence.
"Relentless anti-Ukraine messaging by right-wing media figures like Tucker Carlson has taken its toll"
Or... the portion of the populace least inclined to view America as a global policeman (which tends to overlap with the Republican Party) has started to come to its senses. Noah wants to paint this as a negative, but I'm unclear why Americans NOT wanting to fight a war on the front porch of a major nuclear power is a bad thing. Of course, if one believes that Putin is Hitler redux, then he will view this differently. But if you treat every peace proposal as Munich, Ukraine will be 100% women and children within a few years.
This poll can also be read this way: "a remarkably bipartisan consensus supports Ukraine, with more than half the country saying they believe America should provide as much or more aid than it currently is, including 40% of Republicans agreeing with this sentiment." There's imperialism for you: Americans willing to make money on arms sales (subsidized by their own government) while Ukrainians do all the dying.
---
I have rarely so agreed with the final conclusions of an article and so disagreed with its reasoning. I hope the EU takes this advice and starts defending itself -- it's long past time. However, that hope is not rooted in a desire for my own nation to start "refocusing on China".
There is a saying about European royalty: "There was a time that the law and the consent of the governed clothed kings in a power that is nearly unimaginable, but rarely did they make use of it." Let us learn from this example. A superpower should have the strongest military and should use it rarely.
It isn't time for America to refocus on China. It's time for America to do what we should have done at the end of the Cold War: refocus on America.
Important to note that it's not just negative partisanship, which could have been expressed by an ultra-hawk position. The dominant faction in the Republican party is fascist (Biden was being charitable in saying "semi") and they correctly see Putin as an ideological ally, and backer of Trump.
Europe needs to be prepared for the likelihood that the US won't merely get distracted, it will change sides.
FYI: I worked as a full-time volunteer as a member of the Oklahoma Medical Reserve Corps in the Tulsa Covid-19 POD which vaccinated 2,000 patients each day.
Noah, I think you're right that 'the United States can’t be counted on to be a permanent trump card against' Russia, but I don't think that necessarily means that 'If Europe’s great enemy is likely to be relentless, its great ally is likely to be fickle and inconstant.'
Possibly, but not necessarily. I'd bet on a Russian systemic collapse before an American one.
I find it somewhat amusing and also saddening that you talk about "negative partisanship" as though it's a bad thing, then immediately blame Republicans for it, thus reinforcing exactly that.
Tucker Carlson's behavior has of course been completely reprehensible (as always), but from what I saw, it was the left that started this divide and continued to widen it. From inventing a fake Russian scandal to try to discredit Trump, to claiming that all right-wing engagement on Twitter came from Russian bots, the left has also done plenty to damage the unity of the USA's response to Russia's aggression.
A solution to this sort of negative partisanship is not going to come from simply recognizing that it exists and then blaming the other side for it; that's just lampshading the issue while perpetuating it.
Excellent analysis Noah. I think you are spot on
Excellent analysis Noah. I think you are spot on
Great article!
Excellent article Noah! I’m would also be interested as to what role Turkey will play going forth. If I’m not mistaken they have the 2nd largest standing army in NATO yet culturally and politically have much more in common with the Russians, including their neo-Ottoman imperial expansion aspirations, and seem to be helping the Russians evade sanctions. There is much, much more they can do if Turkey really wanted to hurt the Russians. Are they going to continue playing both sides?