The reader of the article might assume that when Israel carried out its disengagement from Gaza in 2005, it left it under siege. This is not true. Everyone anticipated economic growth. However, Hamas launched terror attacks from Gaza and subsequently rose to power in elections, leading to the siege policy. In reality, the siege diminished over the years, and recently there was no shortage of anything in Gaza. This set the background for the strategic surprise Hamas prepared for Israel. The Israeli assessment was that Hamas aimed to focus on economic growth.
Moreover, the challenge for Gaza residents in leaving the strip stemmed from restrictions imposed by Hamas itself, unrelated to Israel
Really don’t want to open a worm can here, but... would it be more accurate to say, “The Israeli/Egyptian blockade of Gaza”?
This is a conversation that bleaches nuance faster than the Negev sun bleaches a desert antelope skeleton, but I’m working to maintain compassion for everyone affected.
"Agriculture is really off the table for Gaza; even under the best of circumstances "
There were some sizable tomato farms that exported all their fruit to EU countries prior to the Israeli withdrawal. When Israel left, the Palestinians demolished all the green houses. Any effort to improve the lot of the Palestinians will require the bulk of the populace to renounce Hamas and look for a path to development. The same can be said of the West Bank but that land is complicated by all the settlements.
Unless there is a political will to seek peace and development, both regions will continue to fester violence.
Yes - it is a worthy dream and maybe someday it might happen if Gaza was ruled by a government that wanted peaceful co-existence and economic well-being. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards anytime soon. By the way, there was a notable Israeli tech entrepreneur who established some tech assembly operations in Gaza , trying to employ Palestinians and improve the strip. Hamas murdered his daughter this month.
The effort to separate Gazans from Hamas, while understandably humanitarian, is both starry-eyed and impractical. Where exactly do you think Hamas draws its willing granny murderers and rapists from? Have you seen examples of tbe “educational materials” used to educate Gazans (paid for by our money via the UNRWA)? Brainwashed, Jew-hating Gazans, infiltrated with actual terrorists with connections to either or both Iran and the Brotherhood aren’t really a hot commodity on the refugee market for any Western country, unfortunately. The other Arab countries view Palestinians as intelligent and crafty and the Gulf, which already has many Palestinians, could (in theory) replace Filipino, Bangladeshi and Pakistani guest workers with Palestinians. The Gulf Arabs don’t seem to trust them and they don’t want to create a dominant and potentially hard to control subculture. I know people working in office towers in KSA who are discouraged from hiring Palestinian staff by the government (preferring they hire Indian subcontinent).
The Germans elected Hitler - once, as the Gazans did of Hamas and didn’t get much choice in the matter afterwards, but Hitler was their government. The Japanese on WWII were ruled by an emperor. The Iraqis probably weren’t too wild about Saddam. The citizens of a country are accountable for the decisions of their rulers to invade countries and slaughter civilians. This doesn’t mean they should be deliberately targeted (as we allies targeted German and Japanese civilians in WWII)- we have moved on from that, hopefully (and legally). But they are certainly going to suffer from the horrors of war and tens of thousands of Gazans (at least) are going to perish. In fact, that would be a miracle in such a population- dense place. Civilian deaths estimates in the 2nd Iraq war range from 150,000 to over 1 million. On a smaller scale, Biden murdered an entire Afghani family on the basis of “ bad intelligence” - whoops- so he could look tough after his Kabul debacle in 2021.
This is going to be horrible and ugly and likely incomplete (failure to eradicate Hamas as a legitimate entity) because of both practical difficulties and the Biden admin being more excited about ending Bibi’s career and enabling the PA than about crushing Hamas and demanding Palestinians (or even American pols and profs) accept Israel’s existence and live peacefully.
Sadly this seems like another bloody step in the same old unwillingness to accept the redrawing of post-imperial borders and mandates after WWII. Crazy this has dragged on so pointlessly for 75+ years. The creation of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Gulf states, etc wasn’t even anywhere near as traumatic and deadly and disruptive as the shifting of borders and populations in Europe (Germany, Ukraine, Poland) let alone the Indian partition. The Abraham accords could, in time, heal these wounds but not until the West, the UN and the Arab world stop enabling (and funding) Palestinian terrorism and hate. Most Israelis seem to be willing to exchange land for peace, but the Hamas attack has shown the folly of exchanging land with people who wish to eliminate you.
This is exactly the time to imagine how it could be.
1 Reinforcing two points. Impressionistically, the Palestinian diaspora is already strong on IT and finance: with open borders (etc) it will drive a lot of business and investment. Your three state solution is also critical: Gaza will succeed as a nation.
2 Repeating two earlier comments: That nation has an ancient and resonant name, Gaza, and we must never allow it to be thought of it as a colonial or military “strip”. The government of the Gaza city state will be the government of a well-structured, efficient metropolitan region comparable to many other successful metropolitan regions. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374814152_ISOCARP_Plan_No_2_Gaza_2015_ISSN_2414-2840, pp 28-36.
Good post, and a good continuation of your thoughts on the subject so far.
However, you're skirting one political aspect which is an absolute must, and that everything else hinges on: Hamas can't stay in power in Gaza. What would the GDP of Germany be today if the allies failed to topple the Nazi regime at the end of WW2? What would a still active Nazi regime today have done to *global* GDPs?
To Noah's point about software, this is an interview Bloomberg did with my Israeli cousin last week on his organization that works to build capacity for Palestinian entrepeneurship in the West Bank (easier) and Gaza (harder) both by bringing Palestinians to Israel to learn skills and by providing VC to support Palestinian startups. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-11/kaufmann-need-to-encourage-palestinian-entrepreneurs-video
There are *tons* of people in Israel who are trying to make life better for the Palestinians (and fighting for a Palestinian state). But it's really hard to do that when you're being slaughtered.
Very interesting and useful. However, the explicit advocacy of Gaza becoming a tax haven detracts considerably from this presentation. This is what happens when economic theory abandons moral theory. Longing here for a return of political economy as the way to think, not just economics.
Fertiliity rate is important. Actually, if you look at the data, almost every country with high fertility rates is poor (except oil sheikdoms), while every country with low fertility (except the Cuban dictatorship) is rich or getting more prosperous fast. Women in the workforce instead of pregnant and taking care or numerous kids they can't afford, and lower child dependency ratios provide a significant demographic dividend. If I were negotiating a peace treaty, demographic agreements to promote family planning on both sides would be a big part of the agreement. There isn't enough land and water for these populations, much less if they double every 30 years.
How to make tourism work with an Islamist terrorist group? Even just the legacy of it creates a lot of problems
Yes Gaza has the beach and the sun and interesting history, but if there isn’t booze or sex or maybe even drugs, why don’t I go to Mallorca? If I have to visit the Islamic word, then why not, say, Antalya?
Here is the link to the longer RAND Palestine Arc video. The link includes links to their reports, which you might find interesting as they discuss the viability of Gaza as a separate entity from the West Bank. There is also the political issue of dividing Gaza from the West Bank, even if each could be viable separately, as weakening an otherwise United Palestine.
What it needs is to stop having kids. Seriously, you live in a high density slum with a 50%+ unemployment rate and decide “yes, having an average of 4 kids is rational”. Any aid should be conditional on rigorous family planning- the lower the TFR, the more aid their get
It's not exactly "case-closed" on this Gaza hospital strike, and I'm a little surprised (and concerned) that you don't seem to apply much skepticism toward what the Israeli and American governments are saying about this, given the mendacity of both during previous Middle East conflicts (WMDs, anyone?).
Nor is this Tweet from an Australian think-tanker some definitive evidence (or even presented by them as such!): "Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed."
"some PRELIMINARY thoughts" (!!!) He further qualifies like so, "First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another."
So, ergo it "turned out not to be true"? Honestly.
Generally, in my *VERY not-expert* opinion, this (again "PRELIMINARY" non-forensic-expert) photographic evidence does seem convincing that this at least wasn't a direct-hit Israeli airstrike that killed 500+ people. But then where does it follow that we know what it was? That it definitely was what the IDF or the DoD are saying?
All great. All possible. One slight problem. Hamas!
The reader of the article might assume that when Israel carried out its disengagement from Gaza in 2005, it left it under siege. This is not true. Everyone anticipated economic growth. However, Hamas launched terror attacks from Gaza and subsequently rose to power in elections, leading to the siege policy. In reality, the siege diminished over the years, and recently there was no shortage of anything in Gaza. This set the background for the strategic surprise Hamas prepared for Israel. The Israeli assessment was that Hamas aimed to focus on economic growth.
Moreover, the challenge for Gaza residents in leaving the strip stemmed from restrictions imposed by Hamas itself, unrelated to Israel
Really don’t want to open a worm can here, but... would it be more accurate to say, “The Israeli/Egyptian blockade of Gaza”?
This is a conversation that bleaches nuance faster than the Negev sun bleaches a desert antelope skeleton, but I’m working to maintain compassion for everyone affected.
"Agriculture is really off the table for Gaza; even under the best of circumstances "
There were some sizable tomato farms that exported all their fruit to EU countries prior to the Israeli withdrawal. When Israel left, the Palestinians demolished all the green houses. Any effort to improve the lot of the Palestinians will require the bulk of the populace to renounce Hamas and look for a path to development. The same can be said of the West Bank but that land is complicated by all the settlements.
Unless there is a political will to seek peace and development, both regions will continue to fester violence.
Yes - it is a worthy dream and maybe someday it might happen if Gaza was ruled by a government that wanted peaceful co-existence and economic well-being. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards anytime soon. By the way, there was a notable Israeli tech entrepreneur who established some tech assembly operations in Gaza , trying to employ Palestinians and improve the strip. Hamas murdered his daughter this month.
The effort to separate Gazans from Hamas, while understandably humanitarian, is both starry-eyed and impractical. Where exactly do you think Hamas draws its willing granny murderers and rapists from? Have you seen examples of tbe “educational materials” used to educate Gazans (paid for by our money via the UNRWA)? Brainwashed, Jew-hating Gazans, infiltrated with actual terrorists with connections to either or both Iran and the Brotherhood aren’t really a hot commodity on the refugee market for any Western country, unfortunately. The other Arab countries view Palestinians as intelligent and crafty and the Gulf, which already has many Palestinians, could (in theory) replace Filipino, Bangladeshi and Pakistani guest workers with Palestinians. The Gulf Arabs don’t seem to trust them and they don’t want to create a dominant and potentially hard to control subculture. I know people working in office towers in KSA who are discouraged from hiring Palestinian staff by the government (preferring they hire Indian subcontinent).
The Germans elected Hitler - once, as the Gazans did of Hamas and didn’t get much choice in the matter afterwards, but Hitler was their government. The Japanese on WWII were ruled by an emperor. The Iraqis probably weren’t too wild about Saddam. The citizens of a country are accountable for the decisions of their rulers to invade countries and slaughter civilians. This doesn’t mean they should be deliberately targeted (as we allies targeted German and Japanese civilians in WWII)- we have moved on from that, hopefully (and legally). But they are certainly going to suffer from the horrors of war and tens of thousands of Gazans (at least) are going to perish. In fact, that would be a miracle in such a population- dense place. Civilian deaths estimates in the 2nd Iraq war range from 150,000 to over 1 million. On a smaller scale, Biden murdered an entire Afghani family on the basis of “ bad intelligence” - whoops- so he could look tough after his Kabul debacle in 2021.
This is going to be horrible and ugly and likely incomplete (failure to eradicate Hamas as a legitimate entity) because of both practical difficulties and the Biden admin being more excited about ending Bibi’s career and enabling the PA than about crushing Hamas and demanding Palestinians (or even American pols and profs) accept Israel’s existence and live peacefully.
Sadly this seems like another bloody step in the same old unwillingness to accept the redrawing of post-imperial borders and mandates after WWII. Crazy this has dragged on so pointlessly for 75+ years. The creation of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Gulf states, etc wasn’t even anywhere near as traumatic and deadly and disruptive as the shifting of borders and populations in Europe (Germany, Ukraine, Poland) let alone the Indian partition. The Abraham accords could, in time, heal these wounds but not until the West, the UN and the Arab world stop enabling (and funding) Palestinian terrorism and hate. Most Israelis seem to be willing to exchange land for peace, but the Hamas attack has shown the folly of exchanging land with people who wish to eliminate you.
That's all stuff we can try...
after Hamas is destroyed. As it stands, economic aid to Gaza right now just funds weapons for Hamas.
You wouldn't try the Marshall Plan while Hitler is still in charge.
As I see it, right in every respect.
This is exactly the time to imagine how it could be.
1 Reinforcing two points. Impressionistically, the Palestinian diaspora is already strong on IT and finance: with open borders (etc) it will drive a lot of business and investment. Your three state solution is also critical: Gaza will succeed as a nation.
2 Repeating two earlier comments: That nation has an ancient and resonant name, Gaza, and we must never allow it to be thought of it as a colonial or military “strip”. The government of the Gaza city state will be the government of a well-structured, efficient metropolitan region comparable to many other successful metropolitan regions. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374814152_ISOCARP_Plan_No_2_Gaza_2015_ISSN_2414-2840, pp 28-36.
Good post, and a good continuation of your thoughts on the subject so far.
However, you're skirting one political aspect which is an absolute must, and that everything else hinges on: Hamas can't stay in power in Gaza. What would the GDP of Germany be today if the allies failed to topple the Nazi regime at the end of WW2? What would a still active Nazi regime today have done to *global* GDPs?
To Noah's point about software, this is an interview Bloomberg did with my Israeli cousin last week on his organization that works to build capacity for Palestinian entrepeneurship in the West Bank (easier) and Gaza (harder) both by bringing Palestinians to Israel to learn skills and by providing VC to support Palestinian startups. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-11/kaufmann-need-to-encourage-palestinian-entrepreneurs-video
There are *tons* of people in Israel who are trying to make life better for the Palestinians (and fighting for a Palestinian state). But it's really hard to do that when you're being slaughtered.
Very interesting and useful. However, the explicit advocacy of Gaza becoming a tax haven detracts considerably from this presentation. This is what happens when economic theory abandons moral theory. Longing here for a return of political economy as the way to think, not just economics.
Fertiliity rate is important. Actually, if you look at the data, almost every country with high fertility rates is poor (except oil sheikdoms), while every country with low fertility (except the Cuban dictatorship) is rich or getting more prosperous fast. Women in the workforce instead of pregnant and taking care or numerous kids they can't afford, and lower child dependency ratios provide a significant demographic dividend. If I were negotiating a peace treaty, demographic agreements to promote family planning on both sides would be a big part of the agreement. There isn't enough land and water for these populations, much less if they double every 30 years.
How to make tourism work with an Islamist terrorist group? Even just the legacy of it creates a lot of problems
Yes Gaza has the beach and the sun and interesting history, but if there isn’t booze or sex or maybe even drugs, why don’t I go to Mallorca? If I have to visit the Islamic word, then why not, say, Antalya?
Hi Noah
Here is the link to the longer RAND Palestine Arc video. The link includes links to their reports, which you might find interesting as they discuss the viability of Gaza as a separate entity from the West Bank. There is also the political issue of dividing Gaza from the West Bank, even if each could be viable separately, as weakening an otherwise United Palestine.
https://www.rand.org/multimedia/video/2008/08/26/the_arc.html
Be well
What it needs is to stop having kids. Seriously, you live in a high density slum with a 50%+ unemployment rate and decide “yes, having an average of 4 kids is rational”. Any aid should be conditional on rigorous family planning- the lower the TFR, the more aid their get
It's not exactly "case-closed" on this Gaza hospital strike, and I'm a little surprised (and concerned) that you don't seem to apply much skepticism toward what the Israeli and American governments are saying about this, given the mendacity of both during previous Middle East conflicts (WMDs, anyone?).
Nor is this Tweet from an Australian think-tanker some definitive evidence (or even presented by them as such!): "Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed."
"some PRELIMINARY thoughts" (!!!) He further qualifies like so, "First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another."
So, ergo it "turned out not to be true"? Honestly.
Generally, in my *VERY not-expert* opinion, this (again "PRELIMINARY" non-forensic-expert) photographic evidence does seem convincing that this at least wasn't a direct-hit Israeli airstrike that killed 500+ people. But then where does it follow that we know what it was? That it definitely was what the IDF or the DoD are saying?
How does the world deal with Hamas?