Yeah, the pre-condition for all of this would be having some kind of state apparatus capable of policing extremists whose top priority is murdering the neighbors. As long as Hamas can stage a strike, and trigger Israelis to lash out in retaliation, it's impossible to build up a peaceful economy. As long as there are people in Gaza who are perfectly willing to engage in kidnapping and extortion, you can't have a tourism industry, or really any other industry, because they will extort the operators of any peaceful industry to give them resources, help them smuggle in arms, etc.
yep. the problem is you have 2 million hostages and money is fungible so a percentage of aid goes to hamas. and physically rooting out hamas will cause great pain to the 2 million gazans.
so what is to be done. nothing doesnt seem to be a good idea
The reader of the article might assume that when Israel carried out its disengagement from Gaza in 2005, it left it under siege. This is not true. Everyone anticipated economic growth. However, Hamas launched terror attacks from Gaza and subsequently rose to power in elections, leading to the siege policy. In reality, the siege diminished over the years, and recently there was no shortage of anything in Gaza. This set the background for the strategic surprise Hamas prepared for Israel. The Israeli assessment was that Hamas aimed to focus on economic growth.
Moreover, the challenge for Gaza residents in leaving the strip stemmed from restrictions imposed by Hamas itself, unrelated to Israel
I love Noah's writing, but he misses the mark on that one IMO. In a recent podcast he said the reason Gaza and Israel are in this sad situation is because they are 'dumb' and that if Israel were smart they would attempt to encourage Gazan economy which would prevent the war. This again ignores the fact that encouraging the Gazan economy was the exact policy that the Israeli regime was trying to push over the past couple of years, which blew up in its face - because Hamas is a terrorist organization uninterested in economic growth
He needs to understand that humans have additional needs besides economic growth. These are related to religion and tribalism, and in some cultures, these needs are central. Jonathan Haidt wrote about the different moral theories between cultures, and about the fact that Western morality is really not universal, even though Westerners mistakenly think so.
Thanks to your comment for pointing out an important point I have missed. I'd like to return the favor by doing the same. It seems you have missed that Noah has caveated, in this article and others, that "there are plenty of important things GDP leaves out". The link with the text "not Hamas" in the first paragraph also goes to an article discussing the cultural points you have raised. Noah does understand what you think he needs to.
Really don’t want to open a worm can here, but... would it be more accurate to say, “The Israeli/Egyptian blockade of Gaza”?
This is a conversation that bleaches nuance faster than the Negev sun bleaches a desert antelope skeleton, but I’m working to maintain compassion for everyone affected.
"Agriculture is really off the table for Gaza; even under the best of circumstances "
There were some sizable tomato farms that exported all their fruit to EU countries prior to the Israeli withdrawal. When Israel left, the Palestinians demolished all the green houses. Any effort to improve the lot of the Palestinians will require the bulk of the populace to renounce Hamas and look for a path to development. The same can be said of the West Bank but that land is complicated by all the settlements.
Unless there is a political will to seek peace and development, both regions will continue to fester violence.
There are still farms (especially along the river that is the southern edge of the evacuation zone) as well as along the Israeli border on southern Gaza.
High value vegetables or fruit would seem to be the way to go
Yes - it is a worthy dream and maybe someday it might happen if Gaza was ruled by a government that wanted peaceful co-existence and economic well-being. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards anytime soon. By the way, there was a notable Israeli tech entrepreneur who established some tech assembly operations in Gaza , trying to employ Palestinians and improve the strip. Hamas murdered his daughter this month.
The effort to separate Gazans from Hamas, while understandably humanitarian, is both starry-eyed and impractical. Where exactly do you think Hamas draws its willing granny murderers and rapists from? Have you seen examples of tbe “educational materials” used to educate Gazans (paid for by our money via the UNRWA)? Brainwashed, Jew-hating Gazans, infiltrated with actual terrorists with connections to either or both Iran and the Brotherhood aren’t really a hot commodity on the refugee market for any Western country, unfortunately. The other Arab countries view Palestinians as intelligent and crafty and the Gulf, which already has many Palestinians, could (in theory) replace Filipino, Bangladeshi and Pakistani guest workers with Palestinians. The Gulf Arabs don’t seem to trust them and they don’t want to create a dominant and potentially hard to control subculture. I know people working in office towers in KSA who are discouraged from hiring Palestinian staff by the government (preferring they hire Indian subcontinent).
The Germans elected Hitler - once, as the Gazans did of Hamas and didn’t get much choice in the matter afterwards, but Hitler was their government. The Japanese on WWII were ruled by an emperor. The Iraqis probably weren’t too wild about Saddam. The citizens of a country are accountable for the decisions of their rulers to invade countries and slaughter civilians. This doesn’t mean they should be deliberately targeted (as we allies targeted German and Japanese civilians in WWII)- we have moved on from that, hopefully (and legally). But they are certainly going to suffer from the horrors of war and tens of thousands of Gazans (at least) are going to perish. In fact, that would be a miracle in such a population- dense place. Civilian deaths estimates in the 2nd Iraq war range from 150,000 to over 1 million. On a smaller scale, Biden murdered an entire Afghani family on the basis of “ bad intelligence” - whoops- so he could look tough after his Kabul debacle in 2021.
This is going to be horrible and ugly and likely incomplete (failure to eradicate Hamas as a legitimate entity) because of both practical difficulties and the Biden admin being more excited about ending Bibi’s career and enabling the PA than about crushing Hamas and demanding Palestinians (or even American pols and profs) accept Israel’s existence and live peacefully.
Sadly this seems like another bloody step in the same old unwillingness to accept the redrawing of post-imperial borders and mandates after WWII. Crazy this has dragged on so pointlessly for 75+ years. The creation of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Gulf states, etc wasn’t even anywhere near as traumatic and deadly and disruptive as the shifting of borders and populations in Europe (Germany, Ukraine, Poland) let alone the Indian partition. The Abraham accords could, in time, heal these wounds but not until the West, the UN and the Arab world stop enabling (and funding) Palestinian terrorism and hate. Most Israelis seem to be willing to exchange land for peace, but the Hamas attack has shown the folly of exchanging land with people who wish to eliminate you.
This is exactly the time to imagine how it could be.
1 Reinforcing two points. Impressionistically, the Palestinian diaspora is already strong on IT and finance: with open borders (etc) it will drive a lot of business and investment. Your three state solution is also critical: Gaza will succeed as a nation.
2 Repeating two earlier comments: That nation has an ancient and resonant name, Gaza, and we must never allow it to be thought of it as a colonial or military “strip”. The government of the Gaza city state will be the government of a well-structured, efficient metropolitan region comparable to many other successful metropolitan regions. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374814152_ISOCARP_Plan_No_2_Gaza_2015_ISSN_2414-2840, pp 28-36.
Good post, and a good continuation of your thoughts on the subject so far.
However, you're skirting one political aspect which is an absolute must, and that everything else hinges on: Hamas can't stay in power in Gaza. What would the GDP of Germany be today if the allies failed to topple the Nazi regime at the end of WW2? What would a still active Nazi regime today have done to *global* GDPs?
the flip side of that is Germany is an incredibly rich country today even though the country was nearly burnt to the ground getting rid of the Nazis. So it won't happen tomorrow or the day after that, but theres no reason Noahs dream cant happen within a couple decades
I agree, so long as Hamas is removed from power. Germany would still be a poor, backwards hellpit if the Nazi regime would have retained power after WW2. Violent authoritarian governments just don't have what it takes to thrive in the 21st century, and doubly so when they're puppets of far away bad guys (in this case Iran) and are severely outmatched by their neighbors (in this case Israel). Gaza can and should thrive - IF it is given a chance. And far and away the greatest blocking force from having that chance is Hamas.
To Noah's point about software, this is an interview Bloomberg did with my Israeli cousin last week on his organization that works to build capacity for Palestinian entrepeneurship in the West Bank (easier) and Gaza (harder) both by bringing Palestinians to Israel to learn skills and by providing VC to support Palestinian startups. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-11/kaufmann-need-to-encourage-palestinian-entrepreneurs-video
There are *tons* of people in Israel who are trying to make life better for the Palestinians (and fighting for a Palestinian state). But it's really hard to do that when you're being slaughtered.
Very interesting and useful. However, the explicit advocacy of Gaza becoming a tax haven detracts considerably from this presentation. This is what happens when economic theory abandons moral theory. Longing here for a return of political economy as the way to think, not just economics.
Ireland is a historical parallel. It is allowed to be a corporate tax haven now, and it suffered oppression from the British before. It is a form of tacit reparation.
Fertiliity rate is important. Actually, if you look at the data, almost every country with high fertility rates is poor (except oil sheikdoms), while every country with low fertility (except the Cuban dictatorship) is rich or getting more prosperous fast. Women in the workforce instead of pregnant and taking care or numerous kids they can't afford, and lower child dependency ratios provide a significant demographic dividend. If I were negotiating a peace treaty, demographic agreements to promote family planning on both sides would be a big part of the agreement. There isn't enough land and water for these populations, much less if they double every 30 years.
How to make tourism work with an Islamist terrorist group? Even just the legacy of it creates a lot of problems
Yes Gaza has the beach and the sun and interesting history, but if there isn’t booze or sex or maybe even drugs, why don’t I go to Mallorca? If I have to visit the Islamic word, then why not, say, Antalya?
Here is the link to the longer RAND Palestine Arc video. The link includes links to their reports, which you might find interesting as they discuss the viability of Gaza as a separate entity from the West Bank. There is also the political issue of dividing Gaza from the West Bank, even if each could be viable separately, as weakening an otherwise United Palestine.
What it needs is to stop having kids. Seriously, you live in a high density slum with a 50%+ unemployment rate and decide “yes, having an average of 4 kids is rational”. Any aid should be conditional on rigorous family planning- the lower the TFR, the more aid their get
It looks like they only have four of the past 20 years represented here, and it's for Gaza+West Bank rather than breaking out Gaza individually, but since TFR has been decreasing almost everywhere else, it would be weird to think that Gaza isn't doing the same thing, particularly given this data.
It's not exactly "case-closed" on this Gaza hospital strike, and I'm a little surprised (and concerned) that you don't seem to apply much skepticism toward what the Israeli and American governments are saying about this, given the mendacity of both during previous Middle East conflicts (WMDs, anyone?).
Nor is this Tweet from an Australian think-tanker some definitive evidence (or even presented by them as such!): "Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed."
"some PRELIMINARY thoughts" (!!!) He further qualifies like so, "First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another."
So, ergo it "turned out not to be true"? Honestly.
Generally, in my *VERY not-expert* opinion, this (again "PRELIMINARY" non-forensic-expert) photographic evidence does seem convincing that this at least wasn't a direct-hit Israeli airstrike that killed 500+ people. But then where does it follow that we know what it was? That it definitely was what the IDF or the DoD are saying?
1) the hospital was not destroyed or even significantly damaged (aside from broken windows)
2) 500 people did not die in the hospital nor were any buried under the rubble of the hospital.
3) the explosion was likely an air blast in a neighboring parking lot rather than an impact projectile or bomb as there is no crater.
The first two points were Hamas fabrications. One would have too somewhat naive to assume they lied and invented a hospital atrocity but were telling the truth that Israel was behind the air blast in the neighboring parking lot.
The third point (air blast) doesn’t necessarily exonerate Israel- western militaries and the IDF have the ability to use air blasts (or have weaponry misfire and detonate early- though it would have to be a very small explosive not to create a crater at that altitude, one that doesn’t seem to be in the inventory but could theoretically be cobbled together). Why the IDF would cobble together a special weapon and target a parking lot and destroy some parked cars (and likely people passing by) is a question. Why anyone would consider a parking lot strike an atrocity (when there are other, more catastrophic strikes that killed some civilians and actually destroyed residential buildings) is another.
Hamas invented a hospital atrocity and the western media acted as Hamas’ PR agencies with zero fact-checking. That much we know. It wasn’t the first Hamas disinfo we have gobbled up and it won’t be the last. You are right to be sceptical of what any party to a war says, but an air blast over a parking lot with minor damage to infrastructure seems hardly worthy of any analysis or debate (nor worthy of lies by the US or Israel) when we know entire apartment blocks are being leveled (with civilian deaths)
As I said, it's undoubtedly true that everyone who has spoken on this in an official capacity is spinning it for optimal propaganda value. That includes Hamas, but also the Israeli and American defense leadership (and every other interested government). That's what happens in war. Understandably.
It's also undoubtedly true that media outlets worldwide have spoken rashly about this event where the facts of the case are incomplete, at best. Hence my criticism about Noah posting a link to a Tweet (which was itself extremely qualified) as "proof."
We don't "know" that "Western media acted as Hamas' PR agencies with zero fact-checking." I certainly don't know that because the front pages of the NYT, WashPost, Bloomberg, and FT were all echoing the Israel and American line when I read about it. I mean, I can post the links, but surely you've seen these same headlines. So which Western media are you talking about? Who is your "we" here?
So, what I'm saying is that everyone (like you here) who is suddenly an expert in possession of perfect insight into what happened are being rash. Like the Australian think-tanker, you aren't a forensic expert, I assume? I'm certainly not. I can be swayed by informed opinion based on the (limited) available evidence, but I'd be a fool to assume I know what happened.
We know that everyone is going to try to spin whatever story actually happened. Regardless of whether a stray Israeli or Palestinian weapon caused it, each side will claim that the other did. The fact that the first report contained falsehoods about other parts of the story is no evidence for or against what it said about which side did it. All we have to go on are priors, and the claims by biased parties on all sides.
I probably wouldn't go so far as Geoffrey Greene to discount the American government claim *all* the way to zero. But I wouldn't let a Hamas claim here affect my beliefs in *either* direction, for or against what they say.
Russia has been killing a lot of civilians for some time now in Ukraine by landing missiles in public squares, parking lots, open-air markets, and other crowded areas that aren't buildings. So whether the hospital was blown up or the crowded parking lot directly outside the hospital was blown up isn't really an important distinction in this context.
What matters here is who was at fault for the wanton killing of many civilians (including already injured or sick ones) in what most people would consider an area of sanctuary and safety. Not whether that killing was happening in the hospital's OR, parking lot, or ambulance garage. And, if it was a mistake (either by the IDF or Islamic Jihad or Hamas), that also completely changes the implications from war crime to tragic mistake.
>So whether the hospital was blown up or the crowded parking lot directly outside the hospital was blown up isn't really an important distinction in this context.
The initial reporting was that a hospital was blown up and they were pulling bodies out of the rubble so yes actually it is important if the hospital is still there or not, because it shows the incident was a total lie from the start
There's also zero evidence IDF did this and decent evidence that an Islamist group did, I don't know what standard of proof you think will ever come out of a war zone controlled by terrorists but it's as open and shut as you're going to get in this war
It's probably the case that *everyone* is lying (or at least exaggerating) here. It's not either-or. And that the "fog of war" factor in an active war zone and restrictions on access for journalists prevents us from knowing exactly what did happen. Maybe it was an Islamic Jihad missile or a Hamas one. Or maybe an Israeli missile mis-fired, too! Probably nobody meant to actually explode a hospital parking lot and it was a horrific accident in a war that is full of horrific non-accidents. Which is much less satisfying a narrative for all involved. And all the more important to verify.
Actually, the fact that newspapers print the earliest possible report of a breaking news event and get some things wrong is no story at all. That is dog-bites-man.
All great. All possible. One slight problem. Hamas!
Yeah, the pre-condition for all of this would be having some kind of state apparatus capable of policing extremists whose top priority is murdering the neighbors. As long as Hamas can stage a strike, and trigger Israelis to lash out in retaliation, it's impossible to build up a peaceful economy. As long as there are people in Gaza who are perfectly willing to engage in kidnapping and extortion, you can't have a tourism industry, or really any other industry, because they will extort the operators of any peaceful industry to give them resources, help them smuggle in arms, etc.
Related: The West still hasn’t figured out how to support Gaza’s civilian population without also helping Hamas fighters.https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-gaza-humanitarian-aid-diverted-cf356c48?st=hetd9umbh9h1klp&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
yep. the problem is you have 2 million hostages and money is fungible so a percentage of aid goes to hamas. and physically rooting out hamas will cause great pain to the 2 million gazans.
so what is to be done. nothing doesnt seem to be a good idea
The reader of the article might assume that when Israel carried out its disengagement from Gaza in 2005, it left it under siege. This is not true. Everyone anticipated economic growth. However, Hamas launched terror attacks from Gaza and subsequently rose to power in elections, leading to the siege policy. In reality, the siege diminished over the years, and recently there was no shortage of anything in Gaza. This set the background for the strategic surprise Hamas prepared for Israel. The Israeli assessment was that Hamas aimed to focus on economic growth.
Moreover, the challenge for Gaza residents in leaving the strip stemmed from restrictions imposed by Hamas itself, unrelated to Israel
Thanks for that.
I love Noah's writing, but he misses the mark on that one IMO. In a recent podcast he said the reason Gaza and Israel are in this sad situation is because they are 'dumb' and that if Israel were smart they would attempt to encourage Gazan economy which would prevent the war. This again ignores the fact that encouraging the Gazan economy was the exact policy that the Israeli regime was trying to push over the past couple of years, which blew up in its face - because Hamas is a terrorist organization uninterested in economic growth
He needs to understand that humans have additional needs besides economic growth. These are related to religion and tribalism, and in some cultures, these needs are central. Jonathan Haidt wrote about the different moral theories between cultures, and about the fact that Western morality is really not universal, even though Westerners mistakenly think so.
Thanks to your comment for pointing out an important point I have missed. I'd like to return the favor by doing the same. It seems you have missed that Noah has caveated, in this article and others, that "there are plenty of important things GDP leaves out". The link with the text "not Hamas" in the first paragraph also goes to an article discussing the cultural points you have raised. Noah does understand what you think he needs to.
Really don’t want to open a worm can here, but... would it be more accurate to say, “The Israeli/Egyptian blockade of Gaza”?
This is a conversation that bleaches nuance faster than the Negev sun bleaches a desert antelope skeleton, but I’m working to maintain compassion for everyone affected.
"Agriculture is really off the table for Gaza; even under the best of circumstances "
There were some sizable tomato farms that exported all their fruit to EU countries prior to the Israeli withdrawal. When Israel left, the Palestinians demolished all the green houses. Any effort to improve the lot of the Palestinians will require the bulk of the populace to renounce Hamas and look for a path to development. The same can be said of the West Bank but that land is complicated by all the settlements.
Unless there is a political will to seek peace and development, both regions will continue to fester violence.
There are still farms (especially along the river that is the southern edge of the evacuation zone) as well as along the Israeli border on southern Gaza.
High value vegetables or fruit would seem to be the way to go
Yes - it is a worthy dream and maybe someday it might happen if Gaza was ruled by a government that wanted peaceful co-existence and economic well-being. That doesn’t seem to be in the cards anytime soon. By the way, there was a notable Israeli tech entrepreneur who established some tech assembly operations in Gaza , trying to employ Palestinians and improve the strip. Hamas murdered his daughter this month.
The effort to separate Gazans from Hamas, while understandably humanitarian, is both starry-eyed and impractical. Where exactly do you think Hamas draws its willing granny murderers and rapists from? Have you seen examples of tbe “educational materials” used to educate Gazans (paid for by our money via the UNRWA)? Brainwashed, Jew-hating Gazans, infiltrated with actual terrorists with connections to either or both Iran and the Brotherhood aren’t really a hot commodity on the refugee market for any Western country, unfortunately. The other Arab countries view Palestinians as intelligent and crafty and the Gulf, which already has many Palestinians, could (in theory) replace Filipino, Bangladeshi and Pakistani guest workers with Palestinians. The Gulf Arabs don’t seem to trust them and they don’t want to create a dominant and potentially hard to control subculture. I know people working in office towers in KSA who are discouraged from hiring Palestinian staff by the government (preferring they hire Indian subcontinent).
The Germans elected Hitler - once, as the Gazans did of Hamas and didn’t get much choice in the matter afterwards, but Hitler was their government. The Japanese on WWII were ruled by an emperor. The Iraqis probably weren’t too wild about Saddam. The citizens of a country are accountable for the decisions of their rulers to invade countries and slaughter civilians. This doesn’t mean they should be deliberately targeted (as we allies targeted German and Japanese civilians in WWII)- we have moved on from that, hopefully (and legally). But they are certainly going to suffer from the horrors of war and tens of thousands of Gazans (at least) are going to perish. In fact, that would be a miracle in such a population- dense place. Civilian deaths estimates in the 2nd Iraq war range from 150,000 to over 1 million. On a smaller scale, Biden murdered an entire Afghani family on the basis of “ bad intelligence” - whoops- so he could look tough after his Kabul debacle in 2021.
This is going to be horrible and ugly and likely incomplete (failure to eradicate Hamas as a legitimate entity) because of both practical difficulties and the Biden admin being more excited about ending Bibi’s career and enabling the PA than about crushing Hamas and demanding Palestinians (or even American pols and profs) accept Israel’s existence and live peacefully.
Sadly this seems like another bloody step in the same old unwillingness to accept the redrawing of post-imperial borders and mandates after WWII. Crazy this has dragged on so pointlessly for 75+ years. The creation of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Gulf states, etc wasn’t even anywhere near as traumatic and deadly and disruptive as the shifting of borders and populations in Europe (Germany, Ukraine, Poland) let alone the Indian partition. The Abraham accords could, in time, heal these wounds but not until the West, the UN and the Arab world stop enabling (and funding) Palestinian terrorism and hate. Most Israelis seem to be willing to exchange land for peace, but the Hamas attack has shown the folly of exchanging land with people who wish to eliminate you.
That's all stuff we can try...
after Hamas is destroyed. As it stands, economic aid to Gaza right now just funds weapons for Hamas.
You wouldn't try the Marshall Plan while Hitler is still in charge.
As I see it, right in every respect.
This is exactly the time to imagine how it could be.
1 Reinforcing two points. Impressionistically, the Palestinian diaspora is already strong on IT and finance: with open borders (etc) it will drive a lot of business and investment. Your three state solution is also critical: Gaza will succeed as a nation.
2 Repeating two earlier comments: That nation has an ancient and resonant name, Gaza, and we must never allow it to be thought of it as a colonial or military “strip”. The government of the Gaza city state will be the government of a well-structured, efficient metropolitan region comparable to many other successful metropolitan regions. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374814152_ISOCARP_Plan_No_2_Gaza_2015_ISSN_2414-2840, pp 28-36.
Good post, and a good continuation of your thoughts on the subject so far.
However, you're skirting one political aspect which is an absolute must, and that everything else hinges on: Hamas can't stay in power in Gaza. What would the GDP of Germany be today if the allies failed to topple the Nazi regime at the end of WW2? What would a still active Nazi regime today have done to *global* GDPs?
the flip side of that is Germany is an incredibly rich country today even though the country was nearly burnt to the ground getting rid of the Nazis. So it won't happen tomorrow or the day after that, but theres no reason Noahs dream cant happen within a couple decades
I agree, so long as Hamas is removed from power. Germany would still be a poor, backwards hellpit if the Nazi regime would have retained power after WW2. Violent authoritarian governments just don't have what it takes to thrive in the 21st century, and doubly so when they're puppets of far away bad guys (in this case Iran) and are severely outmatched by their neighbors (in this case Israel). Gaza can and should thrive - IF it is given a chance. And far and away the greatest blocking force from having that chance is Hamas.
To Noah's point about software, this is an interview Bloomberg did with my Israeli cousin last week on his organization that works to build capacity for Palestinian entrepeneurship in the West Bank (easier) and Gaza (harder) both by bringing Palestinians to Israel to learn skills and by providing VC to support Palestinian startups. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-10-11/kaufmann-need-to-encourage-palestinian-entrepreneurs-video
There are *tons* of people in Israel who are trying to make life better for the Palestinians (and fighting for a Palestinian state). But it's really hard to do that when you're being slaughtered.
Very interesting and useful. However, the explicit advocacy of Gaza becoming a tax haven detracts considerably from this presentation. This is what happens when economic theory abandons moral theory. Longing here for a return of political economy as the way to think, not just economics.
Ireland is a historical parallel. It is allowed to be a corporate tax haven now, and it suffered oppression from the British before. It is a form of tacit reparation.
Fertiliity rate is important. Actually, if you look at the data, almost every country with high fertility rates is poor (except oil sheikdoms), while every country with low fertility (except the Cuban dictatorship) is rich or getting more prosperous fast. Women in the workforce instead of pregnant and taking care or numerous kids they can't afford, and lower child dependency ratios provide a significant demographic dividend. If I were negotiating a peace treaty, demographic agreements to promote family planning on both sides would be a big part of the agreement. There isn't enough land and water for these populations, much less if they double every 30 years.
How to make tourism work with an Islamist terrorist group? Even just the legacy of it creates a lot of problems
Yes Gaza has the beach and the sun and interesting history, but if there isn’t booze or sex or maybe even drugs, why don’t I go to Mallorca? If I have to visit the Islamic word, then why not, say, Antalya?
I don't think Gaza would be trying to get *you* as a tourist - it would probably be trying to get middle-income Jordanians and Egyptians.
Hi Noah
Here is the link to the longer RAND Palestine Arc video. The link includes links to their reports, which you might find interesting as they discuss the viability of Gaza as a separate entity from the West Bank. There is also the political issue of dividing Gaza from the West Bank, even if each could be viable separately, as weakening an otherwise United Palestine.
https://www.rand.org/multimedia/video/2008/08/26/the_arc.html
Be well
What it needs is to stop having kids. Seriously, you live in a high density slum with a 50%+ unemployment rate and decide “yes, having an average of 4 kids is rational”. Any aid should be conditional on rigorous family planning- the lower the TFR, the more aid their get
TFR has been decreasing.
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/palestinian-territory-occupied/vital-statistics/total-fertility-rate
It looks like they only have four of the past 20 years represented here, and it's for Gaza+West Bank rather than breaking out Gaza individually, but since TFR has been decreasing almost everywhere else, it would be weird to think that Gaza isn't doing the same thing, particularly given this data.
As what China experienced before
It's not exactly "case-closed" on this Gaza hospital strike, and I'm a little surprised (and concerned) that you don't seem to apply much skepticism toward what the Israeli and American governments are saying about this, given the mendacity of both during previous Middle East conflicts (WMDs, anyone?).
Nor is this Tweet from an Australian think-tanker some definitive evidence (or even presented by them as such!): "Now that day has broken, and we're getting better evidence, I'm willing to share some PRELIMINARY thoughts on the al-Ahli hospital explosion. The photos of the scene are, to me, not consistent with an airstrike and are not consistent with claims that 500+ people were killed."
"some PRELIMINARY thoughts" (!!!) He further qualifies like so, "First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another."
So, ergo it "turned out not to be true"? Honestly.
Generally, in my *VERY not-expert* opinion, this (again "PRELIMINARY" non-forensic-expert) photographic evidence does seem convincing that this at least wasn't a direct-hit Israeli airstrike that killed 500+ people. But then where does it follow that we know what it was? That it definitely was what the IDF or the DoD are saying?
There is zero doubt that
1) the hospital was not destroyed or even significantly damaged (aside from broken windows)
2) 500 people did not die in the hospital nor were any buried under the rubble of the hospital.
3) the explosion was likely an air blast in a neighboring parking lot rather than an impact projectile or bomb as there is no crater.
The first two points were Hamas fabrications. One would have too somewhat naive to assume they lied and invented a hospital atrocity but were telling the truth that Israel was behind the air blast in the neighboring parking lot.
The third point (air blast) doesn’t necessarily exonerate Israel- western militaries and the IDF have the ability to use air blasts (or have weaponry misfire and detonate early- though it would have to be a very small explosive not to create a crater at that altitude, one that doesn’t seem to be in the inventory but could theoretically be cobbled together). Why the IDF would cobble together a special weapon and target a parking lot and destroy some parked cars (and likely people passing by) is a question. Why anyone would consider a parking lot strike an atrocity (when there are other, more catastrophic strikes that killed some civilians and actually destroyed residential buildings) is another.
Hamas invented a hospital atrocity and the western media acted as Hamas’ PR agencies with zero fact-checking. That much we know. It wasn’t the first Hamas disinfo we have gobbled up and it won’t be the last. You are right to be sceptical of what any party to a war says, but an air blast over a parking lot with minor damage to infrastructure seems hardly worthy of any analysis or debate (nor worthy of lies by the US or Israel) when we know entire apartment blocks are being leveled (with civilian deaths)
Use Occam’s razor.
Don’t feed a troll!
As I said, it's undoubtedly true that everyone who has spoken on this in an official capacity is spinning it for optimal propaganda value. That includes Hamas, but also the Israeli and American defense leadership (and every other interested government). That's what happens in war. Understandably.
It's also undoubtedly true that media outlets worldwide have spoken rashly about this event where the facts of the case are incomplete, at best. Hence my criticism about Noah posting a link to a Tweet (which was itself extremely qualified) as "proof."
We don't "know" that "Western media acted as Hamas' PR agencies with zero fact-checking." I certainly don't know that because the front pages of the NYT, WashPost, Bloomberg, and FT were all echoing the Israel and American line when I read about it. I mean, I can post the links, but surely you've seen these same headlines. So which Western media are you talking about? Who is your "we" here?
So, what I'm saying is that everyone (like you here) who is suddenly an expert in possession of perfect insight into what happened are being rash. Like the Australian think-tanker, you aren't a forensic expert, I assume? I'm certainly not. I can be swayed by informed opinion based on the (limited) available evidence, but I'd be a fool to assume I know what happened.
A fool isn’t the worst thing one can be.
We know that everyone is going to try to spin whatever story actually happened. Regardless of whether a stray Israeli or Palestinian weapon caused it, each side will claim that the other did. The fact that the first report contained falsehoods about other parts of the story is no evidence for or against what it said about which side did it. All we have to go on are priors, and the claims by biased parties on all sides.
I probably wouldn't go so far as Geoffrey Greene to discount the American government claim *all* the way to zero. But I wouldn't let a Hamas claim here affect my beliefs in *either* direction, for or against what they say.
one big clue about the hospital strike being a lie is that the destroyed hospital in question is actually still there
Russia has been killing a lot of civilians for some time now in Ukraine by landing missiles in public squares, parking lots, open-air markets, and other crowded areas that aren't buildings. So whether the hospital was blown up or the crowded parking lot directly outside the hospital was blown up isn't really an important distinction in this context.
What matters here is who was at fault for the wanton killing of many civilians (including already injured or sick ones) in what most people would consider an area of sanctuary and safety. Not whether that killing was happening in the hospital's OR, parking lot, or ambulance garage. And, if it was a mistake (either by the IDF or Islamic Jihad or Hamas), that also completely changes the implications from war crime to tragic mistake.
>So whether the hospital was blown up or the crowded parking lot directly outside the hospital was blown up isn't really an important distinction in this context.
The initial reporting was that a hospital was blown up and they were pulling bodies out of the rubble so yes actually it is important if the hospital is still there or not, because it shows the incident was a total lie from the start
There's also zero evidence IDF did this and decent evidence that an Islamist group did, I don't know what standard of proof you think will ever come out of a war zone controlled by terrorists but it's as open and shut as you're going to get in this war
It's probably the case that *everyone* is lying (or at least exaggerating) here. It's not either-or. And that the "fog of war" factor in an active war zone and restrictions on access for journalists prevents us from knowing exactly what did happen. Maybe it was an Islamic Jihad missile or a Hamas one. Or maybe an Israeli missile mis-fired, too! Probably nobody meant to actually explode a hospital parking lot and it was a horrific accident in a war that is full of horrific non-accidents. Which is much less satisfying a narrative for all involved. And all the more important to verify.
You are burying the lede.
That a missile might misfire is not a story nor a war crime.
That Hamas invents an atrocity out of whole cloth and the NYT and WP print it without fact checks is the story.
Actually, the fact that newspapers print the earliest possible report of a breaking news event and get some things wrong is no story at all. That is dog-bites-man.
Meh. Hamas should not be a trusted source for “breaking news”. I mean, can we at least check if the destroyed hospital is still standing?
How does the world deal with Hamas?
https://youtu.be/xPZ6eaL3S2E