Agreed. Decoupling has also happened here in Korea a little bit earlier than the rest of the world after China's relation for the THAAD missile defense system where they all of a sudden banned just about everything Korean with complete opacity. The Korean government was fairly meek about the whole thing (because China is totally unpredictable) but quietly just started moving production out of China and investment has completely dried up. In 2019 Samsung completely moved out: https://www.gsmarena.com/samsung_closes_its_last_smartphone_factory_in_china-news-39442.php
And so on and so forth. And that was under President Moon whose party is the more pro-Chinese of the two. (Not exceptionally pro-Chinese because nobody in Korea is, but their party will err on the side of worsening relations with Japan while playing nice with China and riffing with them on things like the Fukushima water release plan)
But decoupling hasn't resulted in good economic performance for Korea. It has a trade deficit for almost a year now and trade deficit with China is strongly negative.
Chinese companies are taking market share in key Korean industries like displays, semiconductors, petrochemicals, batteries and ship building. Korean manufactures still depend heavily on Chinese inputs and import the vast majority of key metals and other chemicals from China.
Also not in the wester narrative is that although Samsung has moved smartphone manufacturing to Vietnam, since 2020, it has paid Chinese OEMs to directly produce white labled smart phones for the low end market.
What would be nice would be for the West’s billionaires to understand that it is the political-economic system built by the west that allowed them to live the lives of luxury they lead and to show a little bit of gratitude and some bloody patriotism, I really don’t think it’s too much to ask
So when the Chinese Govt asks the NBA or EPL to silence its players or block out images to protect their delicate sensibilities or they will stop the NBA and EPL from being shown in China they should tell Xi and the Wolf Warriors that we live in a free country and will do no such thing and then let them explain to their millions of sports fans why they can’t watch these sports anymore
When China asks Disney to change scripts to be shown in China they should tell them ‘No way’ and let the CCP explain to its ppl why they can’t watch Marvel movies anymore
Manufacturers are another issue but should recognise the ‘corruption’ campaigns are a danger to them and start moving to other SE Asian nations
But the cultural stuff is the powerful stuff, if Blue Jeans and Rock n Roll helped bring down the Iron Curtain and free millions from dictatorship then maybe Lebron James and Spider-Man can do the same for the Bamboo curtain and free the billion Chinese ppl from their autocratic rulers
But that would require some patriotism from ppl who have more reason to be patriotic than most, the people who have benefited most from the system that the west built but prepared to do the least to defend it
The "system built by the west" is one based on incentives, not patriotism. We can do better by tweaking incentives. I am not sure what it is you are really proposing other than just shaming people.
Maybe don’t reply to things if you can’t understand basic concepts
I am asking that ppl who have benefited most from this system to show the same amount of patriotism as the average 9-5 worker, I mean I don’t know what you think your reply is even replying too
Michael, never discount the benefit of publicly and loudly shaming someone.
At the same time, never expect that such shaming is an adequate response in and of itself; it is simply one tool in an arsenal. If you don't have such an arsenal, then don't even bother with the shaming as all it will do is to expose "you" as weak and impotent.
It would also help if they got on board with tax reform to bring deficits way down and not support politicians who don't support merit-based immigration.
I’d rather support pols who want to invest in the US workforce, co-ops and apprenticeships, the vocational training system at the secondary school level and industrial programs at state universities. Sure, we should supplement it with qualified immigrants, but our priority should be creating opportunities for our own citizens and incenting or requiring corporations to invest in training and co-ops, starting at the high school level.
Good luck with that…unfortunately the decay in western countries…is quite severe. People can’t even do simple math…20% of people are late on their credit card payments etc…I don’t see a shift anytime soon…more dumb developments among the US political establishment. They can ban tik tok in a week…but they can’t figure out everything else that’s wrong with the US…alas
Pretty predictable anti-China writing as the US government pay check is coming to Noah this month. China is the biggest business partner with many countries. With a population of 1.3B people and a huge consumer market, it's probably easier to decouple from the US than to China. Even Taiwan is doing more business with China than to the US if we exclude the weapon sales.
This website is banned in China, you do know that right?
I love the hypocrisy of people that come to freely debate in these forums, and then, implicitly or explicitly, assume the Chinese position that the right to engage in such debate is some kind of Western Imperial subterfuge. If you don't believe the right to free expression is a meaningful distinction between the US and China, why are you coming here to debate?
If it's worthwhile and legitimate for you to come make this case here, then there is something very, very wrong with China.
It's yet another example of racist anti-Chinese BS. There are thousands of these government sponsored "think tanks" given access to policy makers and media.
I have never met a Chinese who hates the west and wants war over Taiwan. In particular the nonsense "survey" seems to be based on some strange concoction of questions. Instead of "wanting to go to war" the conclusion that most Chinese want to go to war over Taiwan could easily have been represented as the majority want to maintain the status quo, with no war. Which is exactly what the Taiwanese and Chinese want.
But you can tell as soon as the phrase "democracies" versus China who the sponsors are and who the target audiences are. It's this pathetic bloc mentality based on the false premise that the west has functioning democracies in the first place.
The US certainly is not a democracy. It is a corrupt plutocracy, with policies determined by the sponsors, lobbyists and think tanks. The majority paid by the major corporations, and the think tanks often with a circular system of government grants. Support the right narrative or no more cash.
Europe is going the same way,
Indeed, if we want to separate the world into blocs, then it should be called the whitie US led imperialists plus the vassals Korea and Japan versus the global south, the old colonies.
The exploiters, rapers, thieves, murderers and destroyers trying to retain their wellbeing versus the ex-colonies who want to profit from their own resources.
very well written but i strongly feel it will be proxy- trade- technology war and not full fledged war by china -anywhere specially after seeing what is happening bet Russia and Ukraine..
I have laowai friends who had to take their kids out of Chinese primary school becauss they came home talking about "Japanese devils." At one point bus stops carried adverts saying "be careful of your foreign friends, they could be spies." It's a system built on hate, so opposite to what we are building over this side of the world.
I don't know, Noah. FDI is down to 1%? What if it is done via RMB funds or loans/bonds? Meanwhile, China's economy grew massively so it makes sense that it fell as a proportion of GDP, right?
FDI is only relevant insofar as companies want to build factories in China. However, they mostly work with suppliers. They don't need to build factories. Does it really make sense to look at FDI?
Secondly, you assume that company executives will be worried about either violating sanctions during war or else being cut off from their China operations. However, you pointed out in an earlier post that sanctioning China would be too difficult for the world.
Also, the CCP is a very pro-business (as long as they sing the same tune) organisation. Wouldn't it be in their best interest to ensure business is not disrupted? Won't they have a war economy already in the work that's cordoned off from the civilian ecosystem? Whether foreign executives continue to work with the Chinese supply chain would then be an ethical decision. Meanwhile, McDonald's will continue to sell McSpicy burgers to Chinese consumers. A number of companies will head for the exit but it will be the ones that aren't doing that well in China anyway. The capital controls and export controls will be ratcheted up, of course, but nationalisation and asset seizure.. I don't think they're as jingoistic and xenophobic as you think.
The executive of a U.S. company considering whether to put your factories and offices in China (or keep them in China) is not really paying attention to such reports. They live within an echo chamber. Their outlook is short-termist because they intend to jump ship anyway after a couple of years.
Meanwhile, the war on Ukraine has shown that the majority of the world is apathetic. The conscientous ones here in Hong Kong & China will pack up our bags and leave but I do feel you're too optimistic on the decoupling thesis.
Not unreasonable points, but Noah's accompanying data just makes his argument more persuasive, frankly.
The only number you bothered with was--
"FDI is down to 1%? What if it is done via RMB funds or loans/bonds? Meanwhile, China's economy grew massively so it makes sense that it fell as a proportion of GDP, right?"
You start with a highly speculative "what if". Then you claim that FDI only went down as a percentage of GDP because GDP grew quickly. The data doesn't show that though. Noah shared a chart which showed quite clearly that FDI has fallen in absolute terms, not just relative to GDP.
"I don't think they're as jingoistic and xenophobic as you think."
You are entitled to your opinion here, but Noah's opinion poll data suggests that jingoism is robust in China. The data is convincing! You are not.
Agree- but it will be a slow de-coupling based more on new investments going elsewhere (much less frequently to China) at the margin rather than pulling up stakes in existing investments and supply chains.
In other words, many US companies and most industries and consumers are going to be highly dependent upon China for years to come and many companies see China as a valuable market for sales (as noted in the piece). It took 25 years of investment to build up these Chinese supply chains and it will take decades to supplant them.
Jon Bateman, Senior Fellow Carnegie, probably the leading US expert on US-China tech decoupling, explains how the official justification for the chips export controls - "inhibit Chinese military modernization" - is basically bullshit, and that it's rather "to embargo China's development".
Thanks for many insightful observations. And yet by an increasing number of measures, China, BRICS+, and the Global South continue to displace Anglo-European economic hegemony regardless of any desperate de-risking and/or decoupling. Including perspectives from the Global South would help this analysis. After all the overall demographics in the long run do not favor the waning influence of the old imperial metropole. De-risking strategies are arguably too little too late. There's a whole new world of economic cooperation and integration taking place. Critical analysis of China that cannot see the forrest from the trees poses a major risk in and of itself.
It is inevitable that with India rising, its national interests will start colliding with China’s more and more. By 2050, it will be India who would be intent on keeping the US on board as an ally to counter China rather than the US India.
The future will depend on how Africa and the Indian subcontinent develop over the coming decades, to be sure.
China will likely not escape the middle income trap, its population will be only slightly larger than the combo of the Americas, Europe and Australia and with a much smaller GDP and a less appealing political and economic model. Turns out the Chinese century will have lasted only 40 years or so.
On a positive note - robots/automation in a new factory cost about the same everywhere around the world and the US is very competitive in terms of land prices, electricity prices (ex California and a few other states) and freight rail system. Labor costs are less of an issue. Labor skills are the issue (as Noah points out) but American companies working with state universities should be able to turn out engineers or manufacturing operations specialists who can help be the glue that holds an automated floor together.
The top schools (MIT, Cal tech, Stanford, Berkeley et al) are always going to have their grads chasing money at startups or the high paying and glamorous tech names. Our second and third tier schools should be able to educate skilled factory floor workers and problem solvers - which may be a 2 or 3 year co-op program rather than a typical 4 year engineering degree. The money these sorts of roles make (even in traditional manufacturing) is already better than what most college grads earn.
We will still need real engineers to design and build- and we may have too many people trying to be those - but operations and trouble shooting and optimization are valuable skills we seem short of. Importing foreigners is not the real answer- just a stop gap and a potentially harmful one. Importing foreigners actually disincents the investment in co-ops and training US companies and universities need to make. Just as a large supply of illegal labor has retarded investment in automation (until recently) by American wineries and ag producers - lagging far behind Australia and Europe.
With the possible exception of India, I agree with your analysis of where companies should be looking to invest. India is moving toward a theocracy, and I see increased strife among its various groups of citizens. I would want to see a move back toward democracy and religious tolerance before investing large sums of money. The friction between Pakistan and India will only worsen as the BJP becomes more bellicose and anti-Muslim rhetoric becomes more outspoken.
I mean, look at the US in the 19th century. Actually, most of its history. I don’t think any minority group in India is treated as badly as African-Americans in the US before the Civil Rights Acts of the ‘60’s.
Good thing you are not the one moving the money into India but corporations who don't care about your "theocratic" label. If they can invest in the "communist" Vietnam then they will invest in India too. India has received more than half a trillion dollars in FDI from 2015 to 2022.
Sure but it just proves concern about human rights is a farce and it is rather about maintaining US hegemony. If it's China now it could be India a couple of decades from now. All this cozying up to India simply to counter China will look pretty stupid then if it isn't already.
There’s a just a bit of a difference between an autocratic dictatorship and a democracy, even one where 1 party tries to tilt the playing field in its favor.
It will not look stupid by any measure since a stronger India automatically means a less influential China. For an example no one thinks that allying with Soviets to defeat Nazis was stupid.
Yes but the real problem is that the US wants to retain its hegemony . Are we to believe if India was about to surpass America the US would just happily allow it because India was a democracy? No doubt if India and China's position were reversed the US would be desperately supporting China to try to slow India's rise.
Hindus are the most progressive people and the most educated. See the top leaders in your tech companies. Compare this to, say, Muslims and Islam and the trail of destruction this ideology has left.
We need to come together to oppose such violent, divisive ideologies.
Citizenship Amendment Bill, numerous anti-conversion laws....there are tons of recent Indian laws which are effectively anti-Muslim. It is disingenuous to pretend otherwise. Good of you to provide your own anti-Muslim rhetoric so that nobody will be mistaken where you stand.
CAA is not anti-Muslim. It is pro-minority communities in Pak, Bangla and Afg to escape persecution in the Muslim majority nations. The list of affected communities include Hindu, Christian, Jewish, Sikh and Buddhist. You don't want these vulnerable minorities to escape the wrath of the Taliban?
There are several laws which are pro-Dalit, doesn't make them anti-non-Dalit.
Anti-conversion laws protect Muslims from forceful conversion to Hinduism. Or a Christian being force converted to Islam. I don't know how you can characterise it as anti-Muslim.
Good article. Another factor: Climate change and China's declining population coupled with low fertility rates mean all that capital has fewer consumers. The market for unused existing stuff will compete with new stuff, lowering GDP. I don't see population decline reversing. The physics laws of conservation of mass and energy put limits on growth, true world-wide. Quantity has limits, even as Quality can go up, which results from better information, with no apparent growth limit. People who think we can expand to the stars have no clue about how slow our current rockets are, or the energy needed to get anywhere, even as close as the moon. The speed of light is nearly 27,000 times earth's escape velocity. Space shuttles couldn't even make it past low orbit.
So from the last paragraph I see that for the investment to come back to the US and to create millions of high paying jobs for non University graduates as well as hurt China economically will require the working class ppl who would most benefit from this to stop voting for Republicans
Ironic, then, that just before WW1, trade and economic interdependence between the various European powers was greater than it had ever been up to that point.
I noticed you shamelessly have no problem with India even as they become more illiberal and autocratic under the BJP as long as they can be used to counter China. Once again proving the concern about 'human rights' is a complete farce and only as long as us hegemony can be maintained. If it's China now, it could be India a few decades from now. Either apply human rights uniformly and not conveniently or else the US will be seen as a laughing stock if it isn't already as the biggest violator of human rights. US is completely silent about Muslims in Kashmit while pretending to care about them in China!
There’s a just a bit of a difference between an autocratic dictatorship and a democracy, even one where 1 party tries to tilt the playing field in its favor.
And did you note how terrible the US was at human rights/civil rights before the Civil Rights Acts of the ‘60’s? If the US became more liberal, why do you expect India’s illiberal trend to continue? Please research and tell me what the younger generations in India think.
Agreed. Decoupling has also happened here in Korea a little bit earlier than the rest of the world after China's relation for the THAAD missile defense system where they all of a sudden banned just about everything Korean with complete opacity. The Korean government was fairly meek about the whole thing (because China is totally unpredictable) but quietly just started moving production out of China and investment has completely dried up. In 2019 Samsung completely moved out: https://www.gsmarena.com/samsung_closes_its_last_smartphone_factory_in_china-news-39442.php
Lotte moved out by 2022: https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2022/05/419_329617.html
And so on and so forth. And that was under President Moon whose party is the more pro-Chinese of the two. (Not exceptionally pro-Chinese because nobody in Korea is, but their party will err on the side of worsening relations with Japan while playing nice with China and riffing with them on things like the Fukushima water release plan)
But decoupling hasn't resulted in good economic performance for Korea. It has a trade deficit for almost a year now and trade deficit with China is strongly negative.
Chinese companies are taking market share in key Korean industries like displays, semiconductors, petrochemicals, batteries and ship building. Korean manufactures still depend heavily on Chinese inputs and import the vast majority of key metals and other chemicals from China.
Also not in the wester narrative is that although Samsung has moved smartphone manufacturing to Vietnam, since 2020, it has paid Chinese OEMs to directly produce white labled smart phones for the low end market.
What would be nice would be for the West’s billionaires to understand that it is the political-economic system built by the west that allowed them to live the lives of luxury they lead and to show a little bit of gratitude and some bloody patriotism, I really don’t think it’s too much to ask
So when the Chinese Govt asks the NBA or EPL to silence its players or block out images to protect their delicate sensibilities or they will stop the NBA and EPL from being shown in China they should tell Xi and the Wolf Warriors that we live in a free country and will do no such thing and then let them explain to their millions of sports fans why they can’t watch these sports anymore
When China asks Disney to change scripts to be shown in China they should tell them ‘No way’ and let the CCP explain to its ppl why they can’t watch Marvel movies anymore
Manufacturers are another issue but should recognise the ‘corruption’ campaigns are a danger to them and start moving to other SE Asian nations
But the cultural stuff is the powerful stuff, if Blue Jeans and Rock n Roll helped bring down the Iron Curtain and free millions from dictatorship then maybe Lebron James and Spider-Man can do the same for the Bamboo curtain and free the billion Chinese ppl from their autocratic rulers
But that would require some patriotism from ppl who have more reason to be patriotic than most, the people who have benefited most from the system that the west built but prepared to do the least to defend it
The "system built by the west" is one based on incentives, not patriotism. We can do better by tweaking incentives. I am not sure what it is you are really proposing other than just shaming people.
Maybe don’t reply to things if you can’t understand basic concepts
I am asking that ppl who have benefited most from this system to show the same amount of patriotism as the average 9-5 worker, I mean I don’t know what you think your reply is even replying too
But ppl like you are why the block button exists
People have no incentive whatsoever to satisfy your wishes though. Have fun with that.
Michael, never discount the benefit of publicly and loudly shaming someone.
At the same time, never expect that such shaming is an adequate response in and of itself; it is simply one tool in an arsenal. If you don't have such an arsenal, then don't even bother with the shaming as all it will do is to expose "you" as weak and impotent.
It would also help if they got on board with tax reform to bring deficits way down and not support politicians who don't support merit-based immigration.
I’d rather support pols who want to invest in the US workforce, co-ops and apprenticeships, the vocational training system at the secondary school level and industrial programs at state universities. Sure, we should supplement it with qualified immigrants, but our priority should be creating opportunities for our own citizens and incenting or requiring corporations to invest in training and co-ops, starting at the high school level.
Good luck with that…unfortunately the decay in western countries…is quite severe. People can’t even do simple math…20% of people are late on their credit card payments etc…I don’t see a shift anytime soon…more dumb developments among the US political establishment. They can ban tik tok in a week…but they can’t figure out everything else that’s wrong with the US…alas
But there is no trade-off. Merit immigrants are a net positive, GDP and revenue, revenue for investing in human capital of residents.
Very good analysis!
Pretty predictable anti-China writing as the US government pay check is coming to Noah this month. China is the biggest business partner with many countries. With a population of 1.3B people and a huge consumer market, it's probably easier to decouple from the US than to China. Even Taiwan is doing more business with China than to the US if we exclude the weapon sales.
This website is banned in China, you do know that right?
I love the hypocrisy of people that come to freely debate in these forums, and then, implicitly or explicitly, assume the Chinese position that the right to engage in such debate is some kind of Western Imperial subterfuge. If you don't believe the right to free expression is a meaningful distinction between the US and China, why are you coming here to debate?
If it's worthwhile and legitimate for you to come make this case here, then there is something very, very wrong with China.
Open your eyes, friend.
Don't be so hard on the shills. They're entertaining.
Every society has their redlines…they’re all different…”free” is just a slogan…its how much freedom…and what kind you have.
Can you give on example of a way in which Chinese people are more free than Americans?
Thanks.
It's yet another example of racist anti-Chinese BS. There are thousands of these government sponsored "think tanks" given access to policy makers and media.
I have never met a Chinese who hates the west and wants war over Taiwan. In particular the nonsense "survey" seems to be based on some strange concoction of questions. Instead of "wanting to go to war" the conclusion that most Chinese want to go to war over Taiwan could easily have been represented as the majority want to maintain the status quo, with no war. Which is exactly what the Taiwanese and Chinese want.
But you can tell as soon as the phrase "democracies" versus China who the sponsors are and who the target audiences are. It's this pathetic bloc mentality based on the false premise that the west has functioning democracies in the first place.
The US certainly is not a democracy. It is a corrupt plutocracy, with policies determined by the sponsors, lobbyists and think tanks. The majority paid by the major corporations, and the think tanks often with a circular system of government grants. Support the right narrative or no more cash.
Europe is going the same way,
Indeed, if we want to separate the world into blocs, then it should be called the whitie US led imperialists plus the vassals Korea and Japan versus the global south, the old colonies.
The exploiters, rapers, thieves, murderers and destroyers trying to retain their wellbeing versus the ex-colonies who want to profit from their own resources.
Fascinating! US government paycheck coming to Noah?
Do tell us where you found that evidence. I'm sure you wouldn't throw around accusations like that without solid basis.
very well written but i strongly feel it will be proxy- trade- technology war and not full fledged war by china -anywhere specially after seeing what is happening bet Russia and Ukraine..
Sure.
I have laowai friends who had to take their kids out of Chinese primary school becauss they came home talking about "Japanese devils." At one point bus stops carried adverts saying "be careful of your foreign friends, they could be spies." It's a system built on hate, so opposite to what we are building over this side of the world.
I don't know, Noah. FDI is down to 1%? What if it is done via RMB funds or loans/bonds? Meanwhile, China's economy grew massively so it makes sense that it fell as a proportion of GDP, right?
FDI is only relevant insofar as companies want to build factories in China. However, they mostly work with suppliers. They don't need to build factories. Does it really make sense to look at FDI?
Secondly, you assume that company executives will be worried about either violating sanctions during war or else being cut off from their China operations. However, you pointed out in an earlier post that sanctioning China would be too difficult for the world.
Also, the CCP is a very pro-business (as long as they sing the same tune) organisation. Wouldn't it be in their best interest to ensure business is not disrupted? Won't they have a war economy already in the work that's cordoned off from the civilian ecosystem? Whether foreign executives continue to work with the Chinese supply chain would then be an ethical decision. Meanwhile, McDonald's will continue to sell McSpicy burgers to Chinese consumers. A number of companies will head for the exit but it will be the ones that aren't doing that well in China anyway. The capital controls and export controls will be ratcheted up, of course, but nationalisation and asset seizure.. I don't think they're as jingoistic and xenophobic as you think.
The executive of a U.S. company considering whether to put your factories and offices in China (or keep them in China) is not really paying attention to such reports. They live within an echo chamber. Their outlook is short-termist because they intend to jump ship anyway after a couple of years.
Meanwhile, the war on Ukraine has shown that the majority of the world is apathetic. The conscientous ones here in Hong Kong & China will pack up our bags and leave but I do feel you're too optimistic on the decoupling thesis.
Not unreasonable points, but Noah's accompanying data just makes his argument more persuasive, frankly.
The only number you bothered with was--
"FDI is down to 1%? What if it is done via RMB funds or loans/bonds? Meanwhile, China's economy grew massively so it makes sense that it fell as a proportion of GDP, right?"
You start with a highly speculative "what if". Then you claim that FDI only went down as a percentage of GDP because GDP grew quickly. The data doesn't show that though. Noah shared a chart which showed quite clearly that FDI has fallen in absolute terms, not just relative to GDP.
"I don't think they're as jingoistic and xenophobic as you think."
You are entitled to your opinion here, but Noah's opinion poll data suggests that jingoism is robust in China. The data is convincing! You are not.
Good piece!
Agree- but it will be a slow de-coupling based more on new investments going elsewhere (much less frequently to China) at the margin rather than pulling up stakes in existing investments and supply chains.
In other words, many US companies and most industries and consumers are going to be highly dependent upon China for years to come and many companies see China as a valuable market for sales (as noted in the piece). It took 25 years of investment to build up these Chinese supply chains and it will take decades to supplant them.
Jon Bateman, Senior Fellow Carnegie, probably the leading US expert on US-China tech decoupling, explains how the official justification for the chips export controls - "inhibit Chinese military modernization" - is basically bullshit, and that it's rather "to embargo China's development".
https://prada.substack.com/p/china-black-box-an-engineering-data
wrong link friend. The name Bateman is not mentioned at your URL.
Thanks for many insightful observations. And yet by an increasing number of measures, China, BRICS+, and the Global South continue to displace Anglo-European economic hegemony regardless of any desperate de-risking and/or decoupling. Including perspectives from the Global South would help this analysis. After all the overall demographics in the long run do not favor the waning influence of the old imperial metropole. De-risking strategies are arguably too little too late. There's a whole new world of economic cooperation and integration taking place. Critical analysis of China that cannot see the forrest from the trees poses a major risk in and of itself.
It is inevitable that with India rising, its national interests will start colliding with China’s more and more. By 2050, it will be India who would be intent on keeping the US on board as an ally to counter China rather than the US India.
The future will depend on how Africa and the Indian subcontinent develop over the coming decades, to be sure.
China will likely not escape the middle income trap, its population will be only slightly larger than the combo of the Americas, Europe and Australia and with a much smaller GDP and a less appealing political and economic model. Turns out the Chinese century will have lasted only 40 years or so.
And great point about our permitting process.
On a positive note - robots/automation in a new factory cost about the same everywhere around the world and the US is very competitive in terms of land prices, electricity prices (ex California and a few other states) and freight rail system. Labor costs are less of an issue. Labor skills are the issue (as Noah points out) but American companies working with state universities should be able to turn out engineers or manufacturing operations specialists who can help be the glue that holds an automated floor together.
The top schools (MIT, Cal tech, Stanford, Berkeley et al) are always going to have their grads chasing money at startups or the high paying and glamorous tech names. Our second and third tier schools should be able to educate skilled factory floor workers and problem solvers - which may be a 2 or 3 year co-op program rather than a typical 4 year engineering degree. The money these sorts of roles make (even in traditional manufacturing) is already better than what most college grads earn.
We will still need real engineers to design and build- and we may have too many people trying to be those - but operations and trouble shooting and optimization are valuable skills we seem short of. Importing foreigners is not the real answer- just a stop gap and a potentially harmful one. Importing foreigners actually disincents the investment in co-ops and training US companies and universities need to make. Just as a large supply of illegal labor has retarded investment in automation (until recently) by American wineries and ag producers - lagging far behind Australia and Europe.
With the possible exception of India, I agree with your analysis of where companies should be looking to invest. India is moving toward a theocracy, and I see increased strife among its various groups of citizens. I would want to see a move back toward democracy and religious tolerance before investing large sums of money. The friction between Pakistan and India will only worsen as the BJP becomes more bellicose and anti-Muslim rhetoric becomes more outspoken.
I mean, look at the US in the 19th century. Actually, most of its history. I don’t think any minority group in India is treated as badly as African-Americans in the US before the Civil Rights Acts of the ‘60’s.
Good thing you are not the one moving the money into India but corporations who don't care about your "theocratic" label. If they can invest in the "communist" Vietnam then they will invest in India too. India has received more than half a trillion dollars in FDI from 2015 to 2022.
Western countries care very much about the "theocratic" label - look at Iran.
Look at Saudi and a Gazillion other theocracies.
Sure but it just proves concern about human rights is a farce and it is rather about maintaining US hegemony. If it's China now it could be India a couple of decades from now. All this cozying up to India simply to counter China will look pretty stupid then if it isn't already.
There’s a just a bit of a difference between an autocratic dictatorship and a democracy, even one where 1 party tries to tilt the playing field in its favor.
It will not look stupid by any measure since a stronger India automatically means a less influential China. For an example no one thinks that allying with Soviets to defeat Nazis was stupid.
Yes but the real problem is that the US wants to retain its hegemony . Are we to believe if India was about to surpass America the US would just happily allow it because India was a democracy? No doubt if India and China's position were reversed the US would be desperately supporting China to try to slow India's rise.
Can you name one-anti-Muslim law in India?
If not, please do not spread propaganda.
Hindus are the most progressive people and the most educated. See the top leaders in your tech companies. Compare this to, say, Muslims and Islam and the trail of destruction this ideology has left.
We need to come together to oppose such violent, divisive ideologies.
Citizenship Amendment Bill, numerous anti-conversion laws....there are tons of recent Indian laws which are effectively anti-Muslim. It is disingenuous to pretend otherwise. Good of you to provide your own anti-Muslim rhetoric so that nobody will be mistaken where you stand.
CAA is not anti-Muslim. It is pro-minority communities in Pak, Bangla and Afg to escape persecution in the Muslim majority nations. The list of affected communities include Hindu, Christian, Jewish, Sikh and Buddhist. You don't want these vulnerable minorities to escape the wrath of the Taliban?
There are several laws which are pro-Dalit, doesn't make them anti-non-Dalit.
Anti-conversion laws protect Muslims from forceful conversion to Hinduism. Or a Christian being force converted to Islam. I don't know how you can characterise it as anti-Muslim.
Good article. Another factor: Climate change and China's declining population coupled with low fertility rates mean all that capital has fewer consumers. The market for unused existing stuff will compete with new stuff, lowering GDP. I don't see population decline reversing. The physics laws of conservation of mass and energy put limits on growth, true world-wide. Quantity has limits, even as Quality can go up, which results from better information, with no apparent growth limit. People who think we can expand to the stars have no clue about how slow our current rockets are, or the energy needed to get anywhere, even as close as the moon. The speed of light is nearly 27,000 times earth's escape velocity. Space shuttles couldn't even make it past low orbit.
So from the last paragraph I see that for the investment to come back to the US and to create millions of high paying jobs for non University graduates as well as hurt China economically will require the working class ppl who would most benefit from this to stop voting for Republicans
The problem with the term “de-risking” is there might be less business risk but the risk of war increases with decoupling.
Well, according to one theory
Not really. Maybe of NATO, but there are plenty of purely economic benefits to the EU.
Ironic, then, that just before WW1, trade and economic interdependence between the various European powers was greater than it had ever been up to that point.
I noticed you shamelessly have no problem with India even as they become more illiberal and autocratic under the BJP as long as they can be used to counter China. Once again proving the concern about 'human rights' is a complete farce and only as long as us hegemony can be maintained. If it's China now, it could be India a few decades from now. Either apply human rights uniformly and not conveniently or else the US will be seen as a laughing stock if it isn't already as the biggest violator of human rights. US is completely silent about Muslims in Kashmit while pretending to care about them in China!
As I noted in another reply:
There’s a just a bit of a difference between an autocratic dictatorship and a democracy, even one where 1 party tries to tilt the playing field in its favor.
And did you note how terrible the US was at human rights/civil rights before the Civil Rights Acts of the ‘60’s? If the US became more liberal, why do you expect India’s illiberal trend to continue? Please research and tell me what the younger generations in India think.