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Tran Hung Dao's avatar

"forecasters couldn’t have predicted the breathtaking size and boldness of the three U.S. relief bills"

Just to push back on this slightly -- predicting the response of institutions is exactly part of the prediction game. I see this kind of excuse a lot in stock market predictions where (bearish) prognosticators often say something like "my prediction would have been totally right except the Fed did stuff". Predicting the Federal Reserve response is part of your job! It is part of the equilibrium you're solving for!

Biden was talking about massive stimulus at least as far back as March 2020. It isn't like predictions had to predict huge stimulus based on zero evidence. All you had to do was take a presidential candidate at his word. From an April interview with Politico:

"The former vice president said the next round of coronavirus stimulus needs to be “a hell of a lot bigger” than last month’s $2 trillion CARES Act"

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JJ's avatar

Great post. Just two minor things: 1) great news that suicides fell, but I don’t think it necessarily means the pandemic wasn’t associated with spikes in poor mental health. There’s lots of reasons why those are two related but different questions. 2) Mills College, at least, was absolutely already going to close before the pandemic. I knew people who worked there and the writing was clearly on the wall before (one actually left a couple years ago specifically because it was clear the institution wouldn’t exist in a few more years), so I don’t think it’s quite right to blame the pandemic for that specific example, though of course the broader issue of the devastation the pandemic is wreaking on higher ed is of course true.

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