“And after the Russians are fully ejected from the country”
Herein lies the problem. If your argument is predicated on this assumption, well, it becomes a lot harder to imagine a prosperous Ukraine. Even the most optimistic forecasts rarely imagine a total Russian ejection from the country (and are we including Crimea here?).
Even if they aren't ejected, Crimea hasn't been part of Ukraine for almost a decade and wasn't a meaningful part of its GDP. The eastern part of the country though is important as and industrial base and replacing that will take time and investment. If it has lost 37% GDP in the depths of the war the recovery will take well over a decade but there's no reason to believe it can't return to its previous power and surpass it even with LNR and DPR missing (and it seems like UAF will take some of that back).
What seems most important long term is for western supermajor energy companies to come in asap and start drilling for all the shale Ukraine has to screw Russia and make Ukraine tons of money :)
Noah, are you really advocating for a tax increase in a country with a 37% GDP decline, 25% inflation, a war that has removed 9 million people from the country, and forced millions of others into internal refugees? As well as a 20% UAH devaluation?
You make statements like Ukraine "has a pretty robust welfare state" -- but compared to what? The UAH-denominated welfare payments are right now substantially all late. And with inflation and the UAH devaluation, there is not much left.
Moreover, you talk about "solidarity", but most entrepreneurs have (rightly) seen the government as being predatory in terms of taxation in the past, without offering any real social benefits or returns. There is a real reason that people prefer not to declare their true incomes: it's a sure route to expropriation by corrupt tax officials, corrupt fire officials, police, customs officials, rival oligarchs and pretty much everyone. Surely you are familiar with the problems of bribery in Ukraine.
Ukraine does have a lot of potential. But this is going to be a very rough winter for the average population still within its borders, as well as those outside.
There are very few scenarios where higher taxes are going to be achievable, even if laws are passed.
In contrast, the west should be doing a lot more with real support, paid out rapidly, not announced and then debated upon for months.
As to corruption, this is the whole point. A total war forces people to reevaluate things. I’d be very surprised if petty corruption and oligarchy was not significantly reduced in Ukraine post conflict.
Let's hope so. This is definitely an opportunity for a re-start, albeit a bitter and devastating one. From what I see from companies and friends on the ground, there is little fiscal space for raising taxes, even targetted taxes, while many still encounter the same problems they had previously.
Bribery? Did you forget about the Russian invasion with bizarre genocidal tones? Surely the latter is more important? Of course, if Ukraine can get the money it needs via foreign aid, that would be better, but if Ukraine's government needs more revenue, then it should be able to get it.
It will be interesting to see the political dynamics in post-war Ukraine, because after literally dying to preserve the country, the Ukrainian population will likely have little tolerance for both corruption and rich people not paying the taxes needed to rebuild the country.
My point is that if Ukraine's government cannot raise revenue to fight the risk of genocide of its people, then Ukraine is in serious trouble beyond Russia's invasion. In that case, Ukrainians might want to reflect on whether they really want to fight for their country, or just pack their bags and move everyone to Europe.
I totally agree: the government needs revenue for sure. The problems of Kyiv's economy are relatively well documented: a minimum $ 5 billion monthly deficit, if recent numbers are to be believed. I think it's imperative that western countries help. I don't see any fiscal space for tax increases, not in an economic environment where 20% of the population has fled, GDP has fallen by at least 30%, etc.
I am advising corporate clients and friends in Ukraine now and the situation is absolutely disastrous.
Many of the industries which developed in Ukraine after 1990 were based on supplying the tremendous re-development of the Ukrainian economy, but also exporting to Russia. Both markets are now devastated.
There were a few companies which managed to get non-CIS exports to something like 10-15% of turnover, but right now they can't get working capital to export, and they can't get transport routes out of the country. (A few Ukrainian firms were totally western-oriented, such as many agriculture and steel firms, some IT services firms, etc.) Anyone with a physical product is encountering major difficulty right now.
That applies to the fabled oligarchs as much as it applies to the large number of SMEs that dominate the economy.
A key determinant of Ukraine's future is whether the country can escape its longstanding practice and legacy of corruption.
I'm skeptical that removing a few oligarchs from the scene will make a significant difference.
It will take a lot of effort and time to reverse the previous way of doing business.
Ukrainians are no better nor worse than people anywhere; they're not angels so they will need strong laws strongly enforced. to achieve a trust based, non bribery based commercial society.
The main thing for Ukraine, especially long-term, is its demographics. Younger females who fled to Europe (unlike 40+ yo) will probably stay there + once males are allowed to leave, many will. Bet on people, not countries. So you should be bullish on Poland and the Baltics, perhaps.
What? Do you really think that Ukraine's population would cede even more territory (what about the people there?) in exchange for 20 or 40 billion? Why do you think Ukrainians are fighting? Also, why on Earth do you think Putin only wanted the Donbas? Did you really miss the Russian attempt to take the Ukrainian capital, and then the ongoing Russian attempt to annex as much of Ukrainian territory as possible?
Whether he is irrational or not doesn't make your argument correct. Nothing you have said indicates that that proposal would be something that Russia would want let alone propose.
And the reason the factories moved is not to better integrate with the EU, it is because it is untenable to do business and produce goods in their previous industrial heartland which is now occupied by Russia. Don't try and make this seem like something Ukraine wanted to do ahead of time - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/business/war-ukraine-factories.html
Let me repeat it again, Russia wanted to take control of Ukraine. You kind of concede this by saying they want Ukraine as a satellite. Well, do you know what Ukrainians want? They want not to be controlled by Russia. Do you see the problem here? There is a fundamental contradiction between what the Ukrainians want, ie independence, and what the Russians want, ie control of Ukraine.
And what are these reasons? Can you explain them to me? Because so far, you're making zero sense. Zelensky didn't want to cause panic, and he probably wished the invasion didn't happen. He received a lot of criticism in Ukraine for this though.
More to the point, Ukrainians are literally dying by the thousands because they don't want to cede more territory to Russia. Did you see the polls? Ukrainians want to fight until they drive out the Russians. Why the hell would you think that 20 or 40 billion would be more important to Ukrainians than their lives, normality and tranquility, things they are sacrificing now to fight the Russians?
The other nonsense you said is that Russia would only want the Donbas, despite the fact that they launched a full-scale invasion to take the capital, and once that failed, they tried to take the whole of Eastern Ukraine.
Again, you are either arguing in bad faith or look upon Ukraine as a zero agency actor with Western imperialistic lenses. At this point anyone with half a brain cell can see Ukraine will fight on with or without Western help/pressure. So your fake concern is in fact telling rape victims to shut up and enjoy themselves, which apart from cruel is also useless.
If you start a sentence with “I support Ukraine *but*,” you’re sure what follows is pro Kremlin bs. You don’t in fact support Ukraine when you want to impose upon them a Russian ceasefire despite their willingness to fight.
In short, no and no. i.e. you're right that Ukraine has a right wing/fascist element but it is, for example, far less present that what you can find -if you're looking for it - in Germany, let alone Russia.
and the idea of an AQ complex is not realistic b/c Ukrainians even far right ones don't have an interest in foreign expansion/foreign interference. Most of their concerns are bread and butter ones or national identity ones and they got tons of targets at home for that kind of stuff. They would present it as 'decolonisation efforts'. Which isn't necessarily wrong, if we're honest, just totally unhelpful and impractical when the country and its history is so mixed.
Oh, I don't mean a literal bot. Russia has a bunch of guys going around writing stuff like "Ukraine are a bunch of Nazis!" on anything Ukraine-related.
It's indeed not the first time I've responded to that kind of critiques but it comes even from people I don't otherwise dislike like, say, Freddie deBoer. He's never mentioned Ukrainian far righters turning into AQ but has also "expressed concerns" they'd trade the weapons we give them on the black market...
To me, that sounds like a very dumb thing to fear but worthy of a rebuttal (sadly, as opposed to the AQ fear, that one cannot be debunked in 15 seconds).
“And after the Russians are fully ejected from the country”
Herein lies the problem. If your argument is predicated on this assumption, well, it becomes a lot harder to imagine a prosperous Ukraine. Even the most optimistic forecasts rarely imagine a total Russian ejection from the country (and are we including Crimea here?).
Even if they aren't ejected, Crimea hasn't been part of Ukraine for almost a decade and wasn't a meaningful part of its GDP. The eastern part of the country though is important as and industrial base and replacing that will take time and investment. If it has lost 37% GDP in the depths of the war the recovery will take well over a decade but there's no reason to believe it can't return to its previous power and surpass it even with LNR and DPR missing (and it seems like UAF will take some of that back).
What seems most important long term is for western supermajor energy companies to come in asap and start drilling for all the shale Ukraine has to screw Russia and make Ukraine tons of money :)
Update your priors, a full rejection is now a real possibility. Don’t fake concern for Ukraine as your pro-Russian nihilistic agenda.
Do you mean me? I'm pro-Russian?
Noah, are you really advocating for a tax increase in a country with a 37% GDP decline, 25% inflation, a war that has removed 9 million people from the country, and forced millions of others into internal refugees? As well as a 20% UAH devaluation?
You make statements like Ukraine "has a pretty robust welfare state" -- but compared to what? The UAH-denominated welfare payments are right now substantially all late. And with inflation and the UAH devaluation, there is not much left.
Moreover, you talk about "solidarity", but most entrepreneurs have (rightly) seen the government as being predatory in terms of taxation in the past, without offering any real social benefits or returns. There is a real reason that people prefer not to declare their true incomes: it's a sure route to expropriation by corrupt tax officials, corrupt fire officials, police, customs officials, rival oligarchs and pretty much everyone. Surely you are familiar with the problems of bribery in Ukraine.
Ukraine does have a lot of potential. But this is going to be a very rough winter for the average population still within its borders, as well as those outside.
There are very few scenarios where higher taxes are going to be achievable, even if laws are passed.
In contrast, the west should be doing a lot more with real support, paid out rapidly, not announced and then debated upon for months.
Taxes can be targeted to those able to pay them.
As to corruption, this is the whole point. A total war forces people to reevaluate things. I’d be very surprised if petty corruption and oligarchy was not significantly reduced in Ukraine post conflict.
Let's hope so. This is definitely an opportunity for a re-start, albeit a bitter and devastating one. From what I see from companies and friends on the ground, there is little fiscal space for raising taxes, even targetted taxes, while many still encounter the same problems they had previously.
Right, high taxes and high interest rates don't seem to be a good combination.
Bribery? Did you forget about the Russian invasion with bizarre genocidal tones? Surely the latter is more important? Of course, if Ukraine can get the money it needs via foreign aid, that would be better, but if Ukraine's government needs more revenue, then it should be able to get it.
It will be interesting to see the political dynamics in post-war Ukraine, because after literally dying to preserve the country, the Ukrainian population will likely have little tolerance for both corruption and rich people not paying the taxes needed to rebuild the country.
If you read the first paragraph of my post, you will see that I have not.
My point is that if Ukraine's government cannot raise revenue to fight the risk of genocide of its people, then Ukraine is in serious trouble beyond Russia's invasion. In that case, Ukrainians might want to reflect on whether they really want to fight for their country, or just pack their bags and move everyone to Europe.
I totally agree: the government needs revenue for sure. The problems of Kyiv's economy are relatively well documented: a minimum $ 5 billion monthly deficit, if recent numbers are to be believed. I think it's imperative that western countries help. I don't see any fiscal space for tax increases, not in an economic environment where 20% of the population has fled, GDP has fallen by at least 30%, etc.
I am advising corporate clients and friends in Ukraine now and the situation is absolutely disastrous.
Many of the industries which developed in Ukraine after 1990 were based on supplying the tremendous re-development of the Ukrainian economy, but also exporting to Russia. Both markets are now devastated.
There were a few companies which managed to get non-CIS exports to something like 10-15% of turnover, but right now they can't get working capital to export, and they can't get transport routes out of the country. (A few Ukrainian firms were totally western-oriented, such as many agriculture and steel firms, some IT services firms, etc.) Anyone with a physical product is encountering major difficulty right now.
That applies to the fabled oligarchs as much as it applies to the large number of SMEs that dominate the economy.
A key determinant of Ukraine's future is whether the country can escape its longstanding practice and legacy of corruption.
I'm skeptical that removing a few oligarchs from the scene will make a significant difference.
It will take a lot of effort and time to reverse the previous way of doing business.
Ukrainians are no better nor worse than people anywhere; they're not angels so they will need strong laws strongly enforced. to achieve a trust based, non bribery based commercial society.
The main thing for Ukraine, especially long-term, is its demographics. Younger females who fled to Europe (unlike 40+ yo) will probably stay there + once males are allowed to leave, many will. Bet on people, not countries. So you should be bullish on Poland and the Baltics, perhaps.
What? Do you really think that Ukraine's population would cede even more territory (what about the people there?) in exchange for 20 or 40 billion? Why do you think Ukrainians are fighting? Also, why on Earth do you think Putin only wanted the Donbas? Did you really miss the Russian attempt to take the Ukrainian capital, and then the ongoing Russian attempt to annex as much of Ukrainian territory as possible?
Ya Gene's argument seems silly, not only would Ukraine not want it, Russia wouldn't even offer it as an option.
Whether he is irrational or not doesn't make your argument correct. Nothing you have said indicates that that proposal would be something that Russia would want let alone propose.
And the reason the factories moved is not to better integrate with the EU, it is because it is untenable to do business and produce goods in their previous industrial heartland which is now occupied by Russia. Don't try and make this seem like something Ukraine wanted to do ahead of time - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/business/war-ukraine-factories.html
Let me repeat it again, Russia wanted to take control of Ukraine. You kind of concede this by saying they want Ukraine as a satellite. Well, do you know what Ukrainians want? They want not to be controlled by Russia. Do you see the problem here? There is a fundamental contradiction between what the Ukrainians want, ie independence, and what the Russians want, ie control of Ukraine.
And what are these reasons? Can you explain them to me? Because so far, you're making zero sense. Zelensky didn't want to cause panic, and he probably wished the invasion didn't happen. He received a lot of criticism in Ukraine for this though.
More to the point, Ukrainians are literally dying by the thousands because they don't want to cede more territory to Russia. Did you see the polls? Ukrainians want to fight until they drive out the Russians. Why the hell would you think that 20 or 40 billion would be more important to Ukrainians than their lives, normality and tranquility, things they are sacrificing now to fight the Russians?
The other nonsense you said is that Russia would only want the Donbas, despite the fact that they launched a full-scale invasion to take the capital, and once that failed, they tried to take the whole of Eastern Ukraine.
Again, you are either arguing in bad faith or look upon Ukraine as a zero agency actor with Western imperialistic lenses. At this point anyone with half a brain cell can see Ukraine will fight on with or without Western help/pressure. So your fake concern is in fact telling rape victims to shut up and enjoy themselves, which apart from cruel is also useless.
If you start a sentence with “I support Ukraine *but*,” you’re sure what follows is pro Kremlin bs. You don’t in fact support Ukraine when you want to impose upon them a Russian ceasefire despite their willingness to fight.
I lived in Ukraine for a few years.
In short, no and no. i.e. you're right that Ukraine has a right wing/fascist element but it is, for example, far less present that what you can find -if you're looking for it - in Germany, let alone Russia.
and the idea of an AQ complex is not realistic b/c Ukrainians even far right ones don't have an interest in foreign expansion/foreign interference. Most of their concerns are bread and butter ones or national identity ones and they got tons of targets at home for that kind of stuff. They would present it as 'decolonisation efforts'. Which isn't necessarily wrong, if we're honest, just totally unhelpful and impractical when the country and its history is so mixed.
I assume the account you're responding to is a propaganda-bot, so I removed it.
seemed like a cogently written critique for a bot? but sure, np, thanks for the heads up.
Oh, I don't mean a literal bot. Russia has a bunch of guys going around writing stuff like "Ukraine are a bunch of Nazis!" on anything Ukraine-related.
Understood and fair enough.
It's indeed not the first time I've responded to that kind of critiques but it comes even from people I don't otherwise dislike like, say, Freddie deBoer. He's never mentioned Ukrainian far righters turning into AQ but has also "expressed concerns" they'd trade the weapons we give them on the black market...
To me, that sounds like a very dumb thing to fear but worthy of a rebuttal (sadly, as opposed to the AQ fear, that one cannot be debunked in 15 seconds).
Sorry for the dumb question, what's AQ?
sorry about that, im just very worried about all this blowing up in our faces.