I really do try not to make a habit of wishing for the death of my political opponents, but I've been feeling for a while now that if Trump dies before 2024 of his own bad health, Western civilization will be dodging a bullet the likes of which we haven't seen since Attila the Hun conveniently died in 453 before he could finish finishing off what was left of Rome.
To clarify: It's not that "Trump is Attila/Hitler/whatever", it's that his running in the 2024 election, as Noah points out, is probably the single most destabilizing thing that could happen to America in the near future.
People should be focusing on flipping state legislative seats, and in particular on electing state legislators in purple states who are willing to ram through new maps to de-gerrymander, and ideally push for citizen initiatives that prevent gerrymandering going forwards. (possibly under threat of imposing a blue gerrymander if the red team refuses to agree to a truce). Texas 2003 proved that it's constitutional to re-district mid-cycle.
But, what about climate change -- both the disruptions it will cause (crop failures, catastrophic displacements of communities, forced migrations) and the political cynicism it will generate (no amount of incremental policy responses will ever be enough)? The mother of all externalities! I can also imagine a more unifying coming together across borders as nations respond to these challenges (an Earth Shot as a successor to the Moon Shot), but that's my imagination at work, not my more considered expectation. Many of the disruptions experienced in prior turns of history were climate driven.
To your point, I'd say the exhaustion is becoming more evident here, at least on the streets and in our politics. One example: An attempt to recall the Portland mayor may fail for lack of signatures. If I could do GIFs to illustrate the mood of the moment, I'd grab the final scene from On the Waterfront, when the foreman growls, "Alright, now let's get back to work!"
But we in the Northwest had smugly assumed that we'd be a haven from climate change and that climate migrants would flock here. Now we're turning into the new Fresno. It's humbling for our vaunted pride of place.
Generally, I'm hearing less concern about pass-through costs to consumers for these kinds of changes.
But, with the exception of the conflicts over drought in the Klamath Basin, most of the dissatisfaction here is being voiced by the environmental left, which just lost a battle over expanding the I-5 freeway in Portland and considers everything the legislature does as too little, too late. Which is what they're saying about Biden's infrastructure bill. But no one is taking to the streets over this.
Also to your point, and to my more hopeful mode of thinking, states like Oregon have a lot of strengths to play to -- lots of land in rural areas to build out ground-based community solar and large-scale solar farms, without giving up much of our productive farmland, lots of sun in Eastern Oregon and a lot more now in the Willamette Valley, lots of opportunity for farmers and ranchers to adopt battery-powered equipment (when my battery-powered tractor can outpull your diesel-guzzler, watch how quickly farmers adopt these new technologies; ditto for drip irrigation and drones to make better use of water and other resources), lots of local mechanical talent (how about a new garage industry of retrofitting gas vehicles to EVs?), lots going on via OSU with the deployment of wave energy devices etc. Our response to the climate challenge here and elsewhere can be a unifying factor for rural development. So I'll end on that Pollyanna-ish note, even though I'm wary of how this will play out nationally and globally.
I think there's a lot that seems correct here, but I do wonder if the ebb will be lasting.
First and foremost, unlike Nixon who resigned and basically disappeared from public life, Trump seems near certain to run again in 2024. Inasmuch as he is a driver of unrest, it is easy to see 2024 being dominated by Trump-driven unrest, especially in some nightmare scenarios about attempted election theft, a la what Rick Hasen has been banging the drum about. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/08/trump-2024-coup-federalist-society-doctrine.html
Second, I wonder how the long-term pandemic conditions might impact things. We are seeing for example that airplanes have had huge amounts of passenger disruption and conflict, largely around mask mandates. On the flip side of that rage, there's a lot of palpable rage from vaccinated people against those refusing vaccines for things getting out of control. If variants keep popping up and we keep having tension over masks, vaccines, and other mitigation measures, that seems like it could be a big driver of unrest.
We are in uncharted waters with regard to government fiscal matters, the position of the dollar as the global currency, and other forms of actual or potential inflationary pressures. We could hit the rocks very suddenly and without much notice.
A sustained period of 1970’s style inflation in this country could be highly destabilizing.
I think what we have now is a hard core of racists and a big mushy middle that's tired of the whole thing and just wants to go back to the way life was. Meaning, the racism will continue until morale improves.
I really do try not to make a habit of wishing for the death of my political opponents, but I've been feeling for a while now that if Trump dies before 2024 of his own bad health, Western civilization will be dodging a bullet the likes of which we haven't seen since Attila the Hun conveniently died in 453 before he could finish finishing off what was left of Rome.
I hear and I see and I speak no evil
I carry no malice within my breast
But quite without wishing a man to the Devil
One may be permitted to hope for the best
-- Piet Hein
To clarify: It's not that "Trump is Attila/Hitler/whatever", it's that his running in the 2024 election, as Noah points out, is probably the single most destabilizing thing that could happen to America in the near future.
Agreed. It seems likely that his ill-health and possible mental issues will keep him from running, or if does, make him beatable.
Turns out having a boring president is pretty good for the country.
There's a reason that "may you live in interesting times" is considered a curse.
People should be focusing on flipping state legislative seats, and in particular on electing state legislators in purple states who are willing to ram through new maps to de-gerrymander, and ideally push for citizen initiatives that prevent gerrymandering going forwards. (possibly under threat of imposing a blue gerrymander if the red team refuses to agree to a truce). Texas 2003 proved that it's constitutional to re-district mid-cycle.
Lol.... https://davesdailydiscourse.substack.com/p/on-priorities
Beat you to it.
But, what about climate change -- both the disruptions it will cause (crop failures, catastrophic displacements of communities, forced migrations) and the political cynicism it will generate (no amount of incremental policy responses will ever be enough)? The mother of all externalities! I can also imagine a more unifying coming together across borders as nations respond to these challenges (an Earth Shot as a successor to the Moon Shot), but that's my imagination at work, not my more considered expectation. Many of the disruptions experienced in prior turns of history were climate driven.
We shall see! How's it working out in Oregon so far?
To your point, I'd say the exhaustion is becoming more evident here, at least on the streets and in our politics. One example: An attempt to recall the Portland mayor may fail for lack of signatures. If I could do GIFs to illustrate the mood of the moment, I'd grab the final scene from On the Waterfront, when the foreman growls, "Alright, now let's get back to work!"
But we in the Northwest had smugly assumed that we'd be a haven from climate change and that climate migrants would flock here. Now we're turning into the new Fresno. It's humbling for our vaunted pride of place.
Right. Very interesting stuff about Portland unrest, but how did the heat dome affect politics there?
TBD. As with the later stages of Covid, there is more acknowledgement of the problem in rural areas. And I sense less resistance to the easy stuff, like 20-year goals for de-carbonizing the electrical grid, which the legislature just enacted. https://www.opb.org/article/2021/06/26/oregon-lawmakers-carbon-emissions-reduction-goals-state-energy-grid/
Generally, I'm hearing less concern about pass-through costs to consumers for these kinds of changes.
But, with the exception of the conflicts over drought in the Klamath Basin, most of the dissatisfaction here is being voiced by the environmental left, which just lost a battle over expanding the I-5 freeway in Portland and considers everything the legislature does as too little, too late. Which is what they're saying about Biden's infrastructure bill. But no one is taking to the streets over this.
Also to your point, and to my more hopeful mode of thinking, states like Oregon have a lot of strengths to play to -- lots of land in rural areas to build out ground-based community solar and large-scale solar farms, without giving up much of our productive farmland, lots of sun in Eastern Oregon and a lot more now in the Willamette Valley, lots of opportunity for farmers and ranchers to adopt battery-powered equipment (when my battery-powered tractor can outpull your diesel-guzzler, watch how quickly farmers adopt these new technologies; ditto for drip irrigation and drones to make better use of water and other resources), lots of local mechanical talent (how about a new garage industry of retrofitting gas vehicles to EVs?), lots going on via OSU with the deployment of wave energy devices etc. Our response to the climate challenge here and elsewhere can be a unifying factor for rural development. So I'll end on that Pollyanna-ish note, even though I'm wary of how this will play out nationally and globally.
I think there's a lot that seems correct here, but I do wonder if the ebb will be lasting.
First and foremost, unlike Nixon who resigned and basically disappeared from public life, Trump seems near certain to run again in 2024. Inasmuch as he is a driver of unrest, it is easy to see 2024 being dominated by Trump-driven unrest, especially in some nightmare scenarios about attempted election theft, a la what Rick Hasen has been banging the drum about. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/08/trump-2024-coup-federalist-society-doctrine.html
Second, I wonder how the long-term pandemic conditions might impact things. We are seeing for example that airplanes have had huge amounts of passenger disruption and conflict, largely around mask mandates. On the flip side of that rage, there's a lot of palpable rage from vaccinated people against those refusing vaccines for things getting out of control. If variants keep popping up and we keep having tension over masks, vaccines, and other mitigation measures, that seems like it could be a big driver of unrest.
We are in uncharted waters with regard to government fiscal matters, the position of the dollar as the global currency, and other forms of actual or potential inflationary pressures. We could hit the rocks very suddenly and without much notice.
A sustained period of 1970’s style inflation in this country could be highly destabilizing.
I think what we have now is a hard core of racists and a big mushy middle that's tired of the whole thing and just wants to go back to the way life was. Meaning, the racism will continue until morale improves.