Noah, I think you're wrong about PHIMBY. I'd LOVE for it to be a "Why not do both?" thing, and to whatever extent that it is, I *do* agree with you.
But the plain fact is -- as Matt pointed out -- that the PHIMBYs themselves are NOT selling this as a "Why not do both?". Rather, it's a lot of tankies and other crypto-socialists engaging in blatant checkism -- just get government to write a big enough check, and the problem will go away, right? They're explicitly saying that NO regulatory reform is needed, because they're just going to fix everything with [definitely NOT Soviet] housing blocks.
Public housing keeps running into the same roadblocks as private housing. The problem isn't whether it's public or private, it's the roadblocks. And happily, we will GET both by destroying the roadblocks! But public housing has such a politically toxic reputation in the US that it doesn't have a snowball's chance of destroying the roadblocks for us. No, WE need to destroy the roadblocks for IT.
I have a maybe coherent theory of greedflation. It goes like this:
All companies are always trying to raise prices. However, they usually raise prices at different times. This means that all their competitors are not raising prices, and they are forced to lower them again.
However, when inflation strikes, it causes an indirect synchronization effect. The news of high inflation gives all companies in a market a signal to raise prices at the same time. Because all the companies in a market raised prices at once, the usual competitive forces that would push the price back down are not as quick to respond.
So while companies are not uniquely greedy in times of inflation, the inflation signal creates a temporary coordination effect.
For a future article, I would like your thoughts on this article by Stacy Mitchell in the NYT: The Real Reason Your Groceries Are Getting So Expensive (see https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/opinion/inflation-groceries-pricing-walmart.html). In the article, he argues that lack of anti-trust enforcement, particularly lack of enforcement of the Robinson-Patman Act, is to blame. And I don't think it just applies to groceries. We used to have independent gas stations too! Anyway, your thoughts would be appreciated.
Barry Ritholtz, who founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and curates financial-related news in his Big Picture blog, had a post last week: "POS* Tip Demands Are Driving Inflation Higher"
*-Point of sale, not the other thing. Then again, I ain't so sure. :)
Ritholtz, striking a rather populist tone, says: "I have a new thesis I have been noodling around with: All of those Square credit card processing machines you use to pay for coffee or sandwiches or small retail purchases are driving inflation higher. Demands for worker tips in non-tipping industries are having a meaningful impact on prices and CPI."
Economics substack writings very much concentrate on the g7 nations. Yet, day after day, the UN organise in the global south, conferences that identify challenges the global south faces. Here it is LLDC, Land locked developing countries in Africa.
Is it really a thing and if so are they going about it the right way. It is another "challenges facing Africa" story.
Readers may be interested in an economics approach, say the scenario of massive productivity growth for several years followed by massive layoffs and mass unemployment leading to either social unrest or UBI.
I do agree that many American cities had NIMBY qualities that were hidden before 2008 and have been brought to light since then, but I don't think they have become more like LA because they are increasingly valuable job centers. They are more like LA because their housing production numbers look more like LA. I will be laying out the details of this paper over the course of a few substack posts. Here is part 1.
Wondering what you think about these onerous new NIH rules and their effects on international collaboration. For foreign subrecipients, a provision requiring the foreign subrecipient to provide copies of all lab notebooks, all data, and all documentation that supports the research outcomes as described in the progress report. These supporting materials must be provided to prime recipient with each scientific update (no less than once every three months) in line with the timelines outlined in the agreement.
NOT-OD-23-133: NIH Updated Policy Guidance for Subaward/Consortium Written Agreements
NIH Funding Opportunities and Notices in the NIH Guide for Grants and Contracts: NIH Updated Policy Guidance for Subaward/Consortium Written Agreements NOT-OD-23-133. NIH
At the beginning of the year you teased a series of posts on the economies of US states, and said it was coming "very soon". Any updates? I remain eager to read these.
“We need to be focusing on helping a bunch of companies that might be the next Nvidia or the next TSMC, instead of just throwing a bunch of government money at big incumbents.”
I couldn’t agree more. Lest we forget, INTL help d develop EUV, then handed it off to the Dutch. INTL’s problem is it’s suspended in amber, unwilling to get its hands dirty in the chip-fab sector. Why be a lowly industrial operation and actually make things, when you can design chips and look down on everybody from on high? INTL’s problem to this day is it’s corporate culture. This isn’t a start-up fab developing its culture because it must stay flexible to compete and adapt to rapidly evolving products and competition. INTL should have been required, as part of receiving subsidies, it must start with a trailing-edge chip fab. You can’t just spend $180 million for ASML’s 3nm machine and expect to crank-out chips with a 99.9% yield. This is TSMC’s strengths: decades of experience working with clients, not dictating to them.
Mr. Smith: Vacant public land in useful locations is not abundant. For instance, in Los Angeles County the state inventory maps show mostly infill sites, inadequate for the ~500,000 housing units that are needed. As a result, vacant public land will provide only an incremental improvement in housing supply.
If supply is the name of the game (as Mr. Erdmann’s research suggests), then upzoning remains the surest approach.
Regarding counter-cyclical benefits to public investment, this could be accommodated through Federal/State financing programs for qualifying developments.
Best wishes
Ed Salisbury
P.S. Standalone (low-income) public housing projects have a bad history in the United States, and physically reinforce ‘otherness’. Integrating low-income housing into the urban/suburban fabric seems far preferable.
Noah, I disagree with your arguments in favor of public housing. First, it’s important to note that public housing advocates are explicitly not promoting a housing authority that develops and sells properties. In Seattle, our new public housing authority is prohibited from ever divesting of properties. Public ownership is the goal, not housing development. This creates a real headwind to operating an efficient developer.
Second, I’m unconvinced by the counter-cyclical arguments. The housing authority would be subject to the same vagaries of capital markets. Market liquidity, borrowing costs, returns, etc would all be indistinguishable from a private provider.
Third, it’s a distraction from actually creating regulatory reform. The opportunity costs for these public dollars would be really high when you’ve not solved the root issue.
Noah, I think you're wrong about PHIMBY. I'd LOVE for it to be a "Why not do both?" thing, and to whatever extent that it is, I *do* agree with you.
But the plain fact is -- as Matt pointed out -- that the PHIMBYs themselves are NOT selling this as a "Why not do both?". Rather, it's a lot of tankies and other crypto-socialists engaging in blatant checkism -- just get government to write a big enough check, and the problem will go away, right? They're explicitly saying that NO regulatory reform is needed, because they're just going to fix everything with [definitely NOT Soviet] housing blocks.
Public housing keeps running into the same roadblocks as private housing. The problem isn't whether it's public or private, it's the roadblocks. And happily, we will GET both by destroying the roadblocks! But public housing has such a politically toxic reputation in the US that it doesn't have a snowball's chance of destroying the roadblocks for us. No, WE need to destroy the roadblocks for IT.
I have a maybe coherent theory of greedflation. It goes like this:
All companies are always trying to raise prices. However, they usually raise prices at different times. This means that all their competitors are not raising prices, and they are forced to lower them again.
However, when inflation strikes, it causes an indirect synchronization effect. The news of high inflation gives all companies in a market a signal to raise prices at the same time. Because all the companies in a market raised prices at once, the usual competitive forces that would push the price back down are not as quick to respond.
So while companies are not uniquely greedy in times of inflation, the inflation signal creates a temporary coordination effect.
For a future article, I would like your thoughts on this article by Stacy Mitchell in the NYT: The Real Reason Your Groceries Are Getting So Expensive (see https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/opinion/inflation-groceries-pricing-walmart.html). In the article, he argues that lack of anti-trust enforcement, particularly lack of enforcement of the Robinson-Patman Act, is to blame. And I don't think it just applies to groceries. We used to have independent gas stations too! Anyway, your thoughts would be appreciated.
Barry Ritholtz, who founded Ritholtz Wealth Management and curates financial-related news in his Big Picture blog, had a post last week: "POS* Tip Demands Are Driving Inflation Higher"
https://ritholtz.com/2023/05/tip-demands-inflation-higher/
*-Point of sale, not the other thing. Then again, I ain't so sure. :)
Ritholtz, striking a rather populist tone, says: "I have a new thesis I have been noodling around with: All of those Square credit card processing machines you use to pay for coffee or sandwiches or small retail purchases are driving inflation higher. Demands for worker tips in non-tipping industries are having a meaningful impact on prices and CPI."
Economics substack writings very much concentrate on the g7 nations. Yet, day after day, the UN organise in the global south, conferences that identify challenges the global south faces. Here it is LLDC, Land locked developing countries in Africa.
Is it really a thing and if so are they going about it the right way. It is another "challenges facing Africa" story.
https://open.substack.com/pub/africabrief/p/eca-african-lldcs-face-challenges?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android
Hey Noah - this is awesome. New format? I love it.
A disagreement with Matt? FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
But my guess is that you'd both come to a rational consensus.
The existential risks posed by A.I.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/30/technology/ai-threat-warning.html
Readers may be interested in an economics approach, say the scenario of massive productivity growth for several years followed by massive layoffs and mass unemployment leading to either social unrest or UBI.
I do agree that many American cities had NIMBY qualities that were hidden before 2008 and have been brought to light since then, but I don't think they have become more like LA because they are increasingly valuable job centers. They are more like LA because their housing production numbers look more like LA. I will be laying out the details of this paper over the course of a few substack posts. Here is part 1.
https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/home-price-trends-point-to-a-worsening
Here is the twitter thread.
https://twitter.com/KAErdmann/status/1663973555435089920
Hi Noah,
Wondering what you think about these onerous new NIH rules and their effects on international collaboration. For foreign subrecipients, a provision requiring the foreign subrecipient to provide copies of all lab notebooks, all data, and all documentation that supports the research outcomes as described in the progress report. These supporting materials must be provided to prime recipient with each scientific update (no less than once every three months) in line with the timelines outlined in the agreement.
grants.nih.govgrants.nih.gov
NOT-OD-23-133: NIH Updated Policy Guidance for Subaward/Consortium Written Agreements
NIH Funding Opportunities and Notices in the NIH Guide for Grants and Contracts: NIH Updated Policy Guidance for Subaward/Consortium Written Agreements NOT-OD-23-133. NIH
At the beginning of the year you teased a series of posts on the economies of US states, and said it was coming "very soon". Any updates? I remain eager to read these.
Suggestion.
Finally, an article abou.t SUCCESS in teaching poor kids to read!
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/opinion/mississippi-education-poverty.htm
Great list!
“We need to be focusing on helping a bunch of companies that might be the next Nvidia or the next TSMC, instead of just throwing a bunch of government money at big incumbents.”
I couldn’t agree more. Lest we forget, INTL help d develop EUV, then handed it off to the Dutch. INTL’s problem is it’s suspended in amber, unwilling to get its hands dirty in the chip-fab sector. Why be a lowly industrial operation and actually make things, when you can design chips and look down on everybody from on high? INTL’s problem to this day is it’s corporate culture. This isn’t a start-up fab developing its culture because it must stay flexible to compete and adapt to rapidly evolving products and competition. INTL should have been required, as part of receiving subsidies, it must start with a trailing-edge chip fab. You can’t just spend $180 million for ASML’s 3nm machine and expect to crank-out chips with a 99.9% yield. This is TSMC’s strengths: decades of experience working with clients, not dictating to them.
Mr. Smith: Vacant public land in useful locations is not abundant. For instance, in Los Angeles County the state inventory maps show mostly infill sites, inadequate for the ~500,000 housing units that are needed. As a result, vacant public land will provide only an incremental improvement in housing supply.
If supply is the name of the game (as Mr. Erdmann’s research suggests), then upzoning remains the surest approach.
Regarding counter-cyclical benefits to public investment, this could be accommodated through Federal/State financing programs for qualifying developments.
Best wishes
Ed Salisbury
P.S. Standalone (low-income) public housing projects have a bad history in the United States, and physically reinforce ‘otherness’. Integrating low-income housing into the urban/suburban fabric seems far preferable.
Excellent format filled with interesting stories
Noah, I disagree with your arguments in favor of public housing. First, it’s important to note that public housing advocates are explicitly not promoting a housing authority that develops and sells properties. In Seattle, our new public housing authority is prohibited from ever divesting of properties. Public ownership is the goal, not housing development. This creates a real headwind to operating an efficient developer.
Second, I’m unconvinced by the counter-cyclical arguments. The housing authority would be subject to the same vagaries of capital markets. Market liquidity, borrowing costs, returns, etc would all be indistinguishable from a private provider.
Third, it’s a distraction from actually creating regulatory reform. The opportunity costs for these public dollars would be really high when you’ve not solved the root issue.