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John E's avatar

I had thought that the ancient life expectancy you describe would apply to men, but that women's life expectancy was much lower due to death from childbirth. One of the modern miracles is the drop in infant/child mortality, but also in reducing the death from childbirth for women. This is an area where the US lags behind and contributes to our lower life expectancy relative to other developed countries.

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Peregrine Journal's avatar

Generally agree, not deserving of pessimism, but it is difficult to sort out tech impacts here.

Cleaner power and cars will reduce local pollution, providing bankshot health wins. I'm definitely bullish on medical therapies too.

The problem is that behavioral factors can swamp everything else going on. Reductions in smoking, as you mention, contributed a lot to the decline. (Not only in cancer and heart attack rates, but even in things like household fires: https://www.nber.org/papers/w16625 )

In the other direction, that dip a year or so ago was mostly from spiking suicide rates in the mountain west, which doesn't seem to really be a tech story (maybe the lack of mental health tech?) Also, cheap synthetic opiods, which could be called tech working against us.

I'm still holding out for a moonshot on malaria or cancer to improve global health.

Along the way I'm expecting non-health tech to contribute incremental improvements too.

But I still worry the overall trendline will be dominated by behavioral choices, which still need clever new policy solutions in areas where there aren't easy answers.

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