One “advantage” many people have is they they live in a non battleground state. Where I live my vote is functionally meaningless. Therefore I tend to vote for a person I thing will do a good job or even just make a protest vote to a third party.
If you live in a battle ground state I would not recommend this but for most of us it is an option that might encourage one or both parties to adjust their behavior.
Curious, in no way judging and I think you might have an interesting answer:
If you were called today by a pollster in a Joe Biden approval survey, would you say you Strongly/mostly disapprove of the job he is doing as president?
I feel like there's a good number of people who disapprove of Biden but will vote for him if it's a choice of him vs. Trump again.
That’s 100% me. I voted for Biden (and will again to stop Trump), but Joe has reminded a lot of folks why Trump got elected in the first place (see Gaza for example)
How do you think Trump would have responded to Gaza? I think he'd have provided full-throated and unwavering support for Bibi. Is that why he got elected?
I agree with you, Noah, that a second Trump term would almost certainly be a disaster for both the United States and for all of our allies, and probably all countries other than Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. The rule of law in this country is at stake, as Trump has been trying to undermine respect for our justice system for many years, and is demanding total immunity for himself. In addition, if he is allowed to replace any of the liberal or relatively moderate justices on the Supreme Court, he and the reactionary billionaires who support him will be able to completely rig our legal system in their favor. He will be completely above the law, and I strongly suspect he would then try to remain in office as long as the leaders he so admires in Russia and China. In addition, if he is re-elected, we would likely lose any hope of limiting global warming to a degree that will not be catastrophic and possibly irreversible.
Trump is a chaotic imbecile, but you overstate what he can do. United States carbon emissions fell 14% between 2016 and 2019, and keeping carbon emissions is now mostly up to China and India. If Biden blocks LNG export terminal permits as John Podesta wants him to appease brain-fried Bill McKibben, then Biden will be the one increasing emissions since Europes alternative to American LNG is dirty coal. Which of the four liberal Supreme Court justices are you expecting to die before he and Biden kick the bucket? And Noah worries about him weakening election laws, but Trump only cares about himself and once elected he’ll drop all that crap. The worst thing I am worried about Trump implementing is the across the board 10% tariffs that would be an immediate inflationary jump and loss in purchasing power for all consumers and businesses. Noah didn’t mention that either because Biden might foolishly do the same thing since he kept the other bad Trump tariffs.
US carbon emissions fell during Trump's administration, but no thanks to Trump, who consistently tried to support the fossil fuel industry, including coal power plants, rolled back Obama's vehicle emission standard and sabotaged California's program to increase sale of electric vehicles. In addition, he will not cooperate in any global effort to combat global warming. Justice Sotomayor is 69 years old with a 62 year history of type 1 (insulin dependent) diabetes mellitus, which is associated with a significantly shortened life expectancy and markedly increased risk of heart attack, stroke and kidney failure. Justice Roberts is a 68 year-old man with a seizure disorder. Either one could quite conceivably become incapacitated within the next 5 years. Furthermore, I would not assume that Trump, if elected, would not want to subvert our election laws in 2028, depending on how fast his mental function declines.
Well written. Indeed you definitely don't suffer TDS and as an ex-Googler from long ago I find it deeply amusing how easily you extracted some bunny money from them by exploiting their rampant TDS. It's very sad what that company has become, along with many of America's other great institutions.
Not a US citizen so I have little stake in the outcome. A few thoughts occurred anyway:
- The US media is very deliberately not covering Trump at all this time around. This may mean his rambling brooding on the past simply doesn't get noticed by potential voters, because there's almost no coverage. So people's memory of and assumptions about him will remain fixed on what he said during his last term.
- The chaos/anarchy argument looks like a very risky one for Democrats to make, frankly. The obvious counterpoint from his supporters will be that the chaotic nature of Trump's first term was the work of the woke left, who rioted, made up fake conspiracy theories about him, persecuted his supporters and subverted the institutions that were supposed to do his bidding, destroying their legitimacy in the process.
So surely the reason Trump is so obsessive about loyalty is because the Federal government was repeatedly disloyal to him. I guess if I were in his position, or really if I were any Republican presidential candidate, I'd have exactly the same concerns and a large part of how I'd gain credibility with the base would have to be promising to get the civil service under control. Otherwise what's even the point in running?
Another counterpoint Trumpists might make is that I recall reading somewhere some months ago that unlike in his first surprise win, when he had very few people loyal to him available, this time Trump has built a large group of people who are ready and able to make up a new administration should he win again. If this is true then it suggests there may be much less chaos next time around, because he'd immediately have the organizational capacity to take over the institutions properly. You list the risk of endless institutional warfare as a big risk, but if he has enough supporters then this could become less of an issue.
I disagree with one thing you said, the media continues it's obsession with Trump, daily he is at the top of the show on CNN and on news scrolls I read. Memeoranda for one, often the first ten or more articles are Trump and I have gotten to the point where I just scroll by them. Every single day.
I just opened memeorandum, 17 straight articles on Trump and I stopped counting, one was even about his weight loss program for God's sake. Here's the link:
the media is obsessed with him along with everyone else---I just went downstairs to fix breakfast and my wife started talking about him! enough already
If he actually was able to overthrow the democratic system, the media attention on him is probably worth it (if it is framed right around what he is saying, his lack of policy details, etc). And the truth is nobody can answer that question, as there are a lot of norms he can violate, and a lot of questions left unanswered about what happens if someone smarter tried to do Jan 6th...
I don't like the media attention, but I think he is a danger to American democracy. It is just hard to how much, better safe than sorry possibly...
All very well said, Noah. The return of the woke wars is what I dread most. Sorry if this makes me seem weak, but the late 2010s really were traumatizing for me. I watched helplessly as lefty/liberal people who I used to enjoy hanging out with online completely lost their minds and turned into stark raving lunatics. Some of those people still haven't recovered from those years.
Twitter in particular was awful. The Great Awokening produced a class of people so angry, so aggressive, and so prone to bullying that I constantly felt despair over my own "side." Even after I deleted my account in 2018, I still constantly stalked the place silently because I had this idea in my head that the yelling lefties were correct and I was just suffering from white fragility or whatever. It was a serious mental health issue that I did seek therapy for from 2019-2021.
I'm just now emerging from all this stuff emotionally, and Substacks like yours have helped a great deal. America, please don't bring this shit back in our homes again. Please.
My impression is that (1) this stuff is slowing down. But also, (2) I have to question the intellectual competence of all the people who reacted to "woke" stuff on Twitter with votes for Federal candidates. Despite what Fox News will tell you, there's not a ton of "woke stuff" being implemented by the Democratic party at the Federal level. On the other hand, the institutional GOP and their Judicial appointees are actually promoting some pretty intense and reactionary policies. See e.g., policies designed the President more direct control over the FBI (to promote his vendettas); new state laws and court decisions against abortion and social media free speech; a close 5-4 SCOTUS vote that almost overturned centuries of Federal supremacy at the border, etc. Whether you like them or not, these policies have real stakes that affect how actual people live, whereas "woke" is mostly a social media phenomenon.
Don't even get me started on the "every state for itself" disaster that was the Federal response to the pandemic in 2020/21 (wherein my own state's Republican governor had to use state police to protect PPE shipments *from the Federal government*) [1]. I cannot believe we've memory-holed that stuff. These things all really matter, in a way that "woke stuff" does not.
I agree with you. That's why in spite of all the unpleasant woke stuff, I never once thought about voting for the GOP. But I've seen far too many people react to woke stuff by embracing full blown reactionary politics. They just turn their backs on decades of supporting liberalism and pull a 180.
It's extremely frustrating. The root of all of it IMHO is that those people are way too Online and need to touch grass more. A lot more.
I think you should consider the possibility that Trump's election didn't cause wokeness, which is why your friends haven't recovered even after years of him being gone, and the apparent "calm" is only there because the highly woke media and upper classes feel that they are winning.
The usual date given for the start of the Great Awokening is 2012. There's a lot of evidence for this based on word frequency.
It's true that in the short term Trump is a chaotic candidate. The question is whether in the long term it isn't actually Biden who is turning the United States, by accepting unchecked illegal immigration, into a not-so-functional Latin state like Venezuela or at least Brazil.
First, in no way is the border unchecked. There has and will always be illegal immigration as it is nearly impossible to secure a border so long and over such geography.
Biden has continued to build the border wall and improve enforcement, sources:
Immigration has more to do with the places people are leaving, given drug/crime problems in central and south america, as well as people looking for freedom and opportunity in the USA.
To compare the USA to Venezuela is laughable.
To compare it to Brazil is interesting. In what ways is Brazil not functional?
What type of experience do you have in Brazil and Venezuela? Why do you find them similar to the USA under Biden and Trump?
People are leaving South and Central America for the United States because they want to live in a society where European culture is dominant, due to the enormous positive influences European culture has on wealth, innovation, low crime, and generally high trust among strangers. In a global sense, the United States being European will also support liberal democracies and stand against China, Russia, Iran, and Jihadism, as it saved the world from Nazism 70 years ago.
The only problem is that not only these migrants, whom I completely understand and in no way want to demonize, have a desire to live in European culture. The current residents of the United States also want to remain a country where the dominant culture is European. As long as you control immigration and integration and navigate it carefully, it is possible to combine the two aspirations. When you burst the gates wildly and irresponsibly as the Biden administration does, you create an inevitable conflict.
The gates are not "burst [open] wildly and irresponsibly", you have refused to engage with what Ben Fox has laid out, your European culture angle is weird and wrong, and you can't just say things over and over again like they're facts.
America is American, not European, there is a distinct difference, and neither being European nor assimilating into a European culture are requirements for being American, and buddy I'm going to be honest, not accusing you of being a groyper, but this European culture bit is classic groyper shit. America is America, it is a new and better form of society that is not European, not Asian, not any region, not anything blood or soil, it has vast powers of assimilation, integration and incorporation, it is an idea that allows for the most human flourishing seen yet in the history of civilization and I don't know what to tell you if you think it's so fragile and bound to some weird neoclassical sense of "European" culture (although wink wink right?)
I won't be responding to any more of your replies and I urge all others who see my comment to do the same.
Wow, your last words are really like a parody of the culture of silencing by the elites. And then it's surprising that people follow Trump and the Groypers (I actually didn't know the term and had to Google it. No, I'm not a racist of white supremacy, but I am aware that historically and culturally, European culture has been the engine of liberalism in the last 300 years).
Historically a lot of places were bastions of liberalism in comparison to the time period... the middle east was at one point, so was China. I am not sure historically that really means much when you can cherry pick.
But like the data showed, numbers haven't really changed under Biden.
It's not our skin color or lineage that makes us have Western culture, it's the environment we are raised in. Anyone born here or arriving here at an early age is an American. If we are failing to pass along our values to future generations of Americans, that is our failure as a society - we have to engage marginalized communities and be a shining example for the world. It has nothing to do with immigrants, who can be educated as easily as anyone else can.
If I look at the Americans and US residents who don't support Western values it largely isn't the immigrants - it's MAGA. MAGA is corrupt, authoritarian, divisive, belligerent, lazy, and ignorant. These are the ones that we failed to Westernize and these are the ones that threaten our democracy.
Not the hypothetical as of yet unrealized world in which some children of immigrants support a robust social safety net (god forbid).
Unfortunately, it seems your perspective may be dangerously misguided. The approach to integration has proven to be a resounding failure in nations like Sweden and France, as can be seen with second-generation immigrants. Sometimes, the stark realities of life need to confront and challenge our rose-colored theories. Additionally, if white liberals are genuinely concerned about racial superiority, they should critically reflect on the notion that a European-American heritage could easily overshadow other cultural heritages in immigrant communities. This belief in an automatic and universal adaptation to the American way of life, dismissing the traditions immigrants bring with them, could itself be considered a form of racial superiority. These traditions include very nice things, like food and celebrations. But not only them.
Americans have lived this many times. Irish, Germans, and Italians, were at times considered too foreign to assimilate - now its hard for Americans to imagine a time it was ever any different. Right now we have many regional success stories of powerful assimilation, especially in cities - Hispanic Texan Republicans, Asian Californian Tech CEOs, Chinese American Research Scientists, Indian American Doctors. The places and professions that have the highest rates of immigrants are the very places that Americans express the fewest reservations about immigration. They are the most economically and culturally successful places in the country.
We don't have to speculate, it's clear you are wrong. Americans live this everyday.
You should spend more time thinking about why your expectations are wrong. Either you are as wrong about other countries as you are about America, or you should think about how assimilation in other countries can learn from the American model.
How is it that a MIT graduate maintains a certain standards and culture all while the entire MIT undergraduate class turns over every four years? America is the same - its a place that turns people into Americans.
As the grandchild of one of those thought-to-be unassimilated immigrants, I am grateful for the 1924 immigration law that allowed him the space to assimilate and build a home and family without being economically undermined by mass immigration of yet more poor people from southern Italy.
Sweden has developed an extremely serious problem with bombings and grenade attacks, invariably the work of migrants. This just wasn't a problem before, and still isn't in the smaller towns and villages that remain primarily Swedish. Malmö on the other hand ....
Immigration is the poster child for the debility of the Democratic Party. It’s a running sore for them politically, and Biden knows it, but he evidently cannot control the leftists in the party who truly do want open borders. Whether this is his personal failure or an indication that the party is ungovernable, it indicates that the party is incapable of governing responsibly across the board. Americans have the choice of chaos with Trump or dangerous incompetence with the Democrats.
People are leaving countries (including those settled by Europeans) where social, political and economic unrest have made life impossible for many, just as Europeans did for 300 years.
Did you actually read those links? they do not suggest calm at the border by any means, the Pew link actually says migrant encounters at the border have reached record highs. Maybe ask Eric Adams or the several black and brown community groups in Chicago.
This is one of those issues where Dems have decided to pretend nothing is happening, like critical race theory and genderwang in schools. It's happening, people are not making these concerns up.
According to Noah, the main cause of homelessness is lack of housing. We do not have the housing for all these people coming in. There are a lot of ways to slice and dice the numbers to make it look this way or that, but otoh there are article after article of the crisis on the southern border, you must have seen one. I include one to make the point.
"Migrant crossings soar to near-record levels, testing Biden's border strategy"
When, in 2035, someone writes a book length treatment of the causes of illegal immigration into the United States during the 2020’s, how prominently do you think it will feature Joe Biden’s personal decision making?
Let’s say that the whole book wasn’t really a book, but it was just a single paragraph blaming Joe Biden for illegal immigration; would your intuition be that this was a well researched argument?
If you read the blog of economist Scott Sumner, he often insists that the Federal Reserve creates inflation, not just fails to curb it. Although the debate is a bit semantic, there is significance to this principle. Someone who has absolute power in a certain matter, like the Federal Reserve in the matter of inflation/money creation and like Joe Biden in creating incentives against illegal immigration, cannot escape by claiming he is a victim of fate. He bears the absolute responsibility.
How does Joe Biden have absolute power in illegal immigration?
The law binds him. Congress could change it but they haven't? In fact didn't the GOP house decline to create a bill so they can use it as a talking point in the upcoming election?
In every Western country, a leader who wants to stop illegal immigration faces two obstacles: the parliament and the supreme court. In Australia, they managed to overcome both obstacles, and the boats stopped coming. In Germany, they managed to stop the flood when they signed an agreement with Erdogan. In Britain, they are unable to overcome opposition in the parliament and the supreme court, and the Rwanda plan is not being implemented. In Poland, nothing prevented the government from stopping the migrants, and Putin and Lukashenko's plan to torment Europeans by bringing in migrants collapsed.
Biden has a right-wing Congress that will agree to any right-wing idea, and a Supreme Court that will agree to any right-wing idea. Even the Democrats will not object if he says the flood is too great and there is no choice. Even humanitarian countries like Sweden and Denmark decided one day that enough is enough. Therefore, the conclusion is that there is illegal immigration only because he decided so, and for no other reason.
Seems to me what you’ve described is the opposite of the conclusion you’ve drawn. It’s actually 100% within the power of Congress to write laws that change the illegal immigration question. Congress can even overcome the objections of the President, and the reverse is not true. And because Congress writes the laws, they are in the best position to navigate any objections from the Supreme Court.
You completely miss the fact that there likely would be NO immigration issue if the laws ALREADY ON THE BOOKS were being enforced. Biden has CHOSEN not to enforce them. It is clear where the blame lies. You can try to sweet talk your way around all kinds of niceties, but his violation of the laws are profound. If you are interested, read Governor Abbot's letter of yesterday. The constitutional issues are clear as is Biden's abrogation of duty.
other Presidents have at least managed it way better, there seems to be no management whatsoever by Biden. Obama deported a lot of illegal immigrants, I was a farmer in Ca dependent on their labor when Obama was President and he made it so tough for them to get across the border they stopped coming. It was actually bad. White House policy has a huge impact on the border, if they know they can't get across they stop coming.
There are graphs there showing Biden is doing a ton. Not sure what to say. You can see that they are expelling and apprehending people the same year after year. Covid allowed some emergency changes to how they processed people and kept them in Mexico partly, but you can read up on that nuance.
Asylum laws allow for people to make legal filings. Call your house rep and get CONGRESS to actually fix something. Biden enforces laws, Congress makes them.
What do you want here? How does this impact you? Why does it matter?
I imagine you find a great deal of psychic value in reducing the complexity of the world down to the single variable of “that which Joe Biden wills to be”. I tend to think a more nuanced understanding has value, but there may be no bridge between us here worth brokering (Popper be damned).
Hi Tamritz, I am a US citizen now and a (legal) Venezuelan immigrant 👋. The US is a magnet for immigrants, and that’s hardly new. The US has also been remarkably successful in integrating its immigrants (see Noah’s recent article). The US also needs to put controls on its borders and develop a better immigration policy. Having said that, the US will not become Venezuela or any other failed state just by letting a fraction of its current population in. Most of them come to work, abide by law and raise their families. I can argue that the US will never become Venezuela (radically different starting conditions), however, you have a point in saying the US might deteriorate, buy only if it lets its society and democracy erode.
I don't think we are divided in our opinions about what needs to be done. In any case, one should never underestimate the impact of bad incentives. A government that decides, under the influence of crazy woke circles, that it needs to incentivize smugglers to bring the world's poor population into it, will find that incentives work with amazing effectiveness.
I recall Dana Lind, the immigration correspondent for Vox and by no means a right-wing or racist voice, to say the least, being utterly taken aback by Hillary Clinton's strong pro-open borders stance during her 2016 debates with Bernie Sanders.
Do you "Liberals" ever ask yourself WHY so many vote for Trump? Maybe you should try to understand normal people (you know, those who work with their hands), instead of permanently teaching them what to think.
I understand why *some* people vote for Trump, but people do it for a lot of different reasons, just like people vote for Biden for a lot of different reasons.
I don't "teach people what to think", I offer my assessments and opinions. They're here for you to consider, and you can take them or leave them.
Your comments of Trump are based on all these left wing arrogance and moralism, which drive voters to Trump. Ask yourself WHY people vote for Trump, Brexit, AfD, Front National, Sweden Democrats? Because they know that the "Liberals" despise them, because they are taken for a ride.
I agree with you on the importance of "teaching" or sharing assessments/opinions. However, I think Klaus' first point on "understanding normal people" is relevant. I live in Arkansas. Democratic politicians have pretty much given up on red states like ours. They don't come here, they don't listen. Therefore, they cannot understand. Stereotypes run rampant. Democrats that raise this point get ostracized, and now they are pretty much extinct. You cannot educate someone unless you have built a trust relationship first. I used to live in Texas, and Beto O'Rourke understood this but he came to the party too late. "Normal people" don't trust "liberals" or "elites". Why should they? That's the problem.
My dad works with his hands, my stepmom works with her hands, neither are voting for Trump. There isn't some weird divide over people who work with their hands versus those who don't and how they vote. Just another way to break out stats and I am not sure is that helpful to understand anything.
I do agree that Trump's rise in popularity is a symptom of a lot of deep issues in the USA with things like housing cost, health care costs, licensing gone crazy, minimum wage and the decline of unions, etc etc...
But Trump doesn't address those with policies or real change... he just uses fear mongering to make people scared of the "other." Something the GOP built their party on over the last 15 years. Now they are stuck riding a tiger they can't get off.
Biden has done a ton of things... I'll point to just one that rocks my families world, that is the bill to allow the gov to actually negotiate for drug prices. Sure it is just 10 drugs to start but that is a huge start in allowing the gov to practice free market capitalism in negotiating pricing. Insulin is a big deal too.
The list of what Biden has done is pretty dang long, what is missing for you right now?
Those are all good things, but in a wholly different register from what I am talking about. We are not in transactional time. The Democrats will not do anything about the educated classes ruling the country according to their (strange and unpopular) values, but Trump might. Democrats won't prioritize the interests of ordinary American citizens on immigration, or trade, or the economy, but Trump might.
Given that you’ve already seen Trump in action, it seems strange to speculate favourably on what he ‘might’ do.
It’s like you’re choosing to think the worst of Biden but also choosing to take a very generous view of Trump.
To give you one example: (like many non-Americans) I can see that the US healthcare system is not working very well for many normal Americans, and it’s very expensive compared to other countries. This is a huge problem that should be part of every voter’s considerations.
In 2016 it might have been reasonable to say “Trump might do better”.
By 2020 it was obvious that Republicans had no healthcare plan. Trump regularly lied that a plan was ‘coming soon’.
Has Trump done anything to suggest that he would rectify this failure if given a second chance?
I don’t think he has. And on that basis it’s more reasonable to assume he would disregard ordinary people in a second term, just like he did in the first.
I like Biden himself (as opposed to the Democrats) quite well. But there is a huge wave coming in America. Trump is just riding it. At this moment the details of healthcare policies just don’t matter. What matters is trust in the basic character of our government. A very large number of ordinary people are fed up with the way both parties are running their country into the ground. They are not looking for policy initiatives, rather they want some things said and heeded. Trump is saying them,the Democrats are not. Which is why someone of such vast deficiencies is doing so frighteningly well. It is not for us to tell them that they should be looking at it differently.
I am an ordinary American, I am happy with a lot of things he is doing. What are you specifically wanting when it comes to immigration, trade, or the economy?
I've been predicting this for a few years now and I don't know why the Democrats couldn't get their act together and find an alternative candidate. Gavin Newsom would have been just the white guy the white supremacist supporters of Trump would have a hard time disliking. I'm really surprised they want Biden to run against Trump.
The MAGAnuts hate Gavin Newsome just as much, if not more than Biden; DeSantis even debated him for no apparent reason. I think you bought too much into the “Trump supporters are all racists” talking point that the dems and MSM put out. Maybe Biden kicks the bucket, and if Harris steps aside (while laughing maniacally) we could end up with Dean Phillips as their candidate and I would even vote for him, but never Newsome.
Sure, I'm not an American nor knowledgeable about American electoral politics. Just wish they had a serious conversation amongst themselves and prepared a candidate two heads back
A long time ago a teacher told me that a lot of Buddhist in Tibet view Mao as both a curse/blessing, the blessing being that he caused Tibetan buddhism to leave Tibet and spread all over the world.
I am trying to view Trump through the same lens...
If Trump wins and dissolves NATO and strikes down the international order we all know, maybe something better rises from that. Maybe Europe gets a unified defense organization and starts getting serious about protecting and promoting Europe's interest. Maybe they actively get more involved in Ukraine and provide the funds/supplies Ukraine needs. Maybe they start getting more serious about China and the gov subsidies that gov is using to promote certain industries.
But on the other hand, that is an incredible dangerous period and there is no guarantee it goes the way we want.
Same. I need to go back and finish that sci-fi story I was writing about the octopus version of Isaac Newton inventing calculus and physics underwater...
I'd go a step further. Trump was a virus for the global liberal ecosystem. His second coming would actually be less chaotic. The world has been inoculated and people would just ignore him the way they ignore KJU. The role of the US as a global policeman would diminish and middle powers would work together to discipline revanchists. The EU or European leaders could actually become a force to reckon with diplomatically even if they don't have the strength economically. What will disrupt the world would be the 10% tax on all US imports. China, Chinese consumers and Western Europe would become much stronger as a reliable trade partner/market.
Since Brexit the only nuclear power in Europe is France, and given how Germany can’t even stand peaceful nuclear or to agree with France on much, I don’t think Europe can or will take over global police duties.
Is there a next round after the time of chaos and suffering? If so, your argument makes sense. The problem with geopolitical competitions is that the winner tends to end the game for a very long time, there simply isn't a second round.
A Russian Empire in Eastern Europe would be there to stay, same with Chinese domination of Southeast Asia and parts of Africa in case they decide to go there.
Yes, the covid vaccine saved countless lives but how many more would have been saved if a president that respected science had been in the White House? He probably would have immediately formed a blue ribbon panel like Biden did and taken Covid much more seriously from the outset instead of downplaying the seriousness and sending mixed messages.
I argue that a science respecting President with a panel of experts at his side might have expedited the roll out of personnel protective equipment for health care professionals. They also might have come to the conclusion sooner about rolling out vaccines. Remember Pfizer basically had theirs designed at the end of January when Trump was downplaying the pandemic.
You say he did right thing by being hands off. I say he was too busy campaigning and promoting the big lie that the 2020 election might be stolen. He botched the distribution and wider acceptance of the vaccine because he politicized and weaponized the pandemic.
I'm sorry, I just don't believe Trump should get credit for saving millions of lives during the pandemic. I actually think he cost many lives that could have saved with the right person at the helm.
I'm sorry, I don't think someone who suggests injecting bleach as a cure for Covid on live national TV should get credit for saving countless lives.
Science-respecting? Like Fauci and Collins? Read the latest article from Emily Koop about how NIH and EcoHealth had a hand in funding the probable research in Wuhan than started the pandemic.
I'm not convinced a different US administration could have done much better in 2020 re Covid, because the US isn't an isolated island with easily sealable borders (like Australia, NZ or Taiwan) or a totalitarian surveillance state where almost everyone lives in a walled compound (China).
Noah, you are right to focus on chaos. That really does override everything else.
Are you being too generous to the 2017 tax law? You probably know better, but the reports I've read assert that it widened both inequality and the deficit. Here is an analysis of what the effect would be of extending all the provisions,
Your thoughtful analysis has to be among the best, especially your perspective on Trump ushering in a break with the bipartisan neoliberal economic thinking that ignored the necessity of investing in the US with Trump-Biden years delivering Warp Speed, Covid relief acts, the Chips and Inflatable Reduction Acts et. al. which changed the trajectory of the economy. Americans are at their best when they agree their shared aspirations are integrity, commitment and gratitude. That’s where Liz Cheney and Rachel Maddow meet. Donald Trump and his enablers are the opposite of those values which is why he is the chaos agent and corrupt as all tyrants and would be tyrants prove to be. When corruption prevails no one is safe and secure. That is why everyone close to Trump is immediately a prospective casualty and democracy unravels as a consequence because there is no trust. Only fear, which of course is secret sauce of chaos. Thank you.
Trump is a political entertainer. He loves to hear himself talk and see himself on TV: vanity of vanities, Donald John is thy name.
He tries to be funny, a comedian, and his crowd does laugh at his jokes, such as they are. He's so vain that he's playing a game: Look At Me: I'm Famous, Funny, Rich, And Cool. He's a narcissist's narcissist. He unintentionally mocks himself, but he doesn't get the joke; he believes himself to be the greatest American ever. Does one laugh or cry at this self-scripted charade of a leader?
If there was a god, he may forgive him because this man really does not know what the hell he's doing. Yet tens of millions of Americans love him. Can 70 million fans be wrong? Tragically, they can and are.
Donald J. Trump will likely get some 75 million people to vote for him this fall and, as you point to the betting markets, has a better than even chance of returning to the presidency. Isn’t it time, Noah, (maybe well past time) that we ask ourselves if such an elected leader as our head of state isn’t really a function of two generations of a monopolistic, union-run, pretty damn mediocre public K-12 education system?
The irony is: if Trump is the outcome of a non-functional education system, why in the world would he (or his party) ever promote policies that improve the system?
Incumbent presidents in any decent economy are re-elected. “It’s the economy, stupid,” James Caravelle, Clinton’s campaign manager, made the main emphasis of the campaign. Bush peré got beat by a bad economy. The Vibecession is over. Voters polled about their personal finances are positive by more than 60%. Barring a geopolitical event, the economy will continue to grow.
“The new axis of China, Russia, and Iran threatens to achieve dominance of the Eurasian continent, home to two-thirds of the world’s population and two-thirds of global GDP.”
This nexus is overrated. Nobody has done more to damage an economy for generations than Putin and Xi. This is what makes them dangerous. The U.S. became the self-sufficient, independent producer of fossil fuels with a massive build-out of energy infrastructure and pioneering fracking, as well as cost-efficiency (six or more horizontal drills radiating from a single well-head. Pundits can talk all they want about China attacking Taiwan, but a blockade would quickly deplete its energy supply. As for Putin, he put himself at the mercy of China’s low-price energy consumption because of his invasion of Ukraine. The world still runs on conventional energy sources. The Saudis underestimated the U.S. energy sector and created a massive reaction called the U.S. Shale Gale. OPEC was permanently weakened. Full stop.
Invade Taiwan and the workers walk-off the job, followed a worldwide recession triggered by the high-tech sector. ASML is building a huge second manufacturing facility and corporate campus in Taiwan to meet the coming needs of the AI Bubble. Where China is a future threat is in the lagging/edge chip sector (20nm), which is crucial to the military, automotive, appliance industries -- to name just a few. The U.S. should be building lagging-edge chip fabs across the Rust Belt, where abundant sources of fresh water exist (Great Lakes). This would do double duty: a huge and necessary economic shot in the arm and a counter to China’s only playing card in the computer chip sector.
As for Trump, now that the economy has created an unprecedented number of new businesses for three consecutive years, real-wage gains for the lowest quartile of workers, I trust voters don’t want to see an Agent Orange (Trump) blast radius on the horizon.
Our institutions withstood Trump once and they can again. This is not a fragile country. The biggest issue is that Biden is a poor candidate, advanced age and obvious decline being the most acute in the public eye. Biden is also losing a part of the historical Democratic base, people of color, working class, etc., and it doesn't help that he has no message beyond I’m not the orange monkey man. What does he and the party stand for?
Why don’t we stop warning the world about Trump and start pressuring the Democratic party to select someone who can win regardless of what happens with Trump.
Actuarial odds on an 80 year old American man dieing within a year are about 7%, probably higher for someone with a stressful job and with the latest life expectancy declines.
I will, in fact, vote for Biden even though he supports a lot of stuff that is terrible. I agree with everything you said.
One “advantage” many people have is they they live in a non battleground state. Where I live my vote is functionally meaningless. Therefore I tend to vote for a person I thing will do a good job or even just make a protest vote to a third party.
If you live in a battle ground state I would not recommend this but for most of us it is an option that might encourage one or both parties to adjust their behavior.
Curious, in no way judging and I think you might have an interesting answer:
If you were called today by a pollster in a Joe Biden approval survey, would you say you Strongly/mostly disapprove of the job he is doing as president?
I feel like there's a good number of people who disapprove of Biden but will vote for him if it's a choice of him vs. Trump again.
That’s 100% me. I voted for Biden (and will again to stop Trump), but Joe has reminded a lot of folks why Trump got elected in the first place (see Gaza for example)
How do you think Trump would have responded to Gaza? I think he'd have provided full-throated and unwavering support for Bibi. Is that why he got elected?
Trump talked big but was in practice extremely dovish
Oh, he wouldn't have sent troops or anything, but he'd have publicly sided with Israel and provided whatever sort of arms or aid Bibi asked for.
I agree with you, Noah, that a second Trump term would almost certainly be a disaster for both the United States and for all of our allies, and probably all countries other than Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. The rule of law in this country is at stake, as Trump has been trying to undermine respect for our justice system for many years, and is demanding total immunity for himself. In addition, if he is allowed to replace any of the liberal or relatively moderate justices on the Supreme Court, he and the reactionary billionaires who support him will be able to completely rig our legal system in their favor. He will be completely above the law, and I strongly suspect he would then try to remain in office as long as the leaders he so admires in Russia and China. In addition, if he is re-elected, we would likely lose any hope of limiting global warming to a degree that will not be catastrophic and possibly irreversible.
Trump is a chaotic imbecile, but you overstate what he can do. United States carbon emissions fell 14% between 2016 and 2019, and keeping carbon emissions is now mostly up to China and India. If Biden blocks LNG export terminal permits as John Podesta wants him to appease brain-fried Bill McKibben, then Biden will be the one increasing emissions since Europes alternative to American LNG is dirty coal. Which of the four liberal Supreme Court justices are you expecting to die before he and Biden kick the bucket? And Noah worries about him weakening election laws, but Trump only cares about himself and once elected he’ll drop all that crap. The worst thing I am worried about Trump implementing is the across the board 10% tariffs that would be an immediate inflationary jump and loss in purchasing power for all consumers and businesses. Noah didn’t mention that either because Biden might foolishly do the same thing since he kept the other bad Trump tariffs.
US carbon emissions fell during Trump's administration, but no thanks to Trump, who consistently tried to support the fossil fuel industry, including coal power plants, rolled back Obama's vehicle emission standard and sabotaged California's program to increase sale of electric vehicles. In addition, he will not cooperate in any global effort to combat global warming. Justice Sotomayor is 69 years old with a 62 year history of type 1 (insulin dependent) diabetes mellitus, which is associated with a significantly shortened life expectancy and markedly increased risk of heart attack, stroke and kidney failure. Justice Roberts is a 68 year-old man with a seizure disorder. Either one could quite conceivably become incapacitated within the next 5 years. Furthermore, I would not assume that Trump, if elected, would not want to subvert our election laws in 2028, depending on how fast his mental function declines.
Well written. Indeed you definitely don't suffer TDS and as an ex-Googler from long ago I find it deeply amusing how easily you extracted some bunny money from them by exploiting their rampant TDS. It's very sad what that company has become, along with many of America's other great institutions.
Not a US citizen so I have little stake in the outcome. A few thoughts occurred anyway:
- The US media is very deliberately not covering Trump at all this time around. This may mean his rambling brooding on the past simply doesn't get noticed by potential voters, because there's almost no coverage. So people's memory of and assumptions about him will remain fixed on what he said during his last term.
- The chaos/anarchy argument looks like a very risky one for Democrats to make, frankly. The obvious counterpoint from his supporters will be that the chaotic nature of Trump's first term was the work of the woke left, who rioted, made up fake conspiracy theories about him, persecuted his supporters and subverted the institutions that were supposed to do his bidding, destroying their legitimacy in the process.
So surely the reason Trump is so obsessive about loyalty is because the Federal government was repeatedly disloyal to him. I guess if I were in his position, or really if I were any Republican presidential candidate, I'd have exactly the same concerns and a large part of how I'd gain credibility with the base would have to be promising to get the civil service under control. Otherwise what's even the point in running?
Another counterpoint Trumpists might make is that I recall reading somewhere some months ago that unlike in his first surprise win, when he had very few people loyal to him available, this time Trump has built a large group of people who are ready and able to make up a new administration should he win again. If this is true then it suggests there may be much less chaos next time around, because he'd immediately have the organizational capacity to take over the institutions properly. You list the risk of endless institutional warfare as a big risk, but if he has enough supporters then this could become less of an issue.
I disagree with one thing you said, the media continues it's obsession with Trump, daily he is at the top of the show on CNN and on news scrolls I read. Memeoranda for one, often the first ten or more articles are Trump and I have gotten to the point where I just scroll by them. Every single day.
That's interesting. I'm not there so shall defer to your experience. I'm only repeating what I've read elsewhere, it's second hand information.
I just opened memeorandum, 17 straight articles on Trump and I stopped counting, one was even about his weight loss program for God's sake. Here's the link:
https://www.memeorandum.com/
the media is obsessed with him along with everyone else---I just went downstairs to fix breakfast and my wife started talking about him! enough already
If he actually was able to overthrow the democratic system, the media attention on him is probably worth it (if it is framed right around what he is saying, his lack of policy details, etc). And the truth is nobody can answer that question, as there are a lot of norms he can violate, and a lot of questions left unanswered about what happens if someone smarter tried to do Jan 6th...
I don't like the media attention, but I think he is a danger to American democracy. It is just hard to how much, better safe than sorry possibly...
All very well said, Noah. The return of the woke wars is what I dread most. Sorry if this makes me seem weak, but the late 2010s really were traumatizing for me. I watched helplessly as lefty/liberal people who I used to enjoy hanging out with online completely lost their minds and turned into stark raving lunatics. Some of those people still haven't recovered from those years.
Twitter in particular was awful. The Great Awokening produced a class of people so angry, so aggressive, and so prone to bullying that I constantly felt despair over my own "side." Even after I deleted my account in 2018, I still constantly stalked the place silently because I had this idea in my head that the yelling lefties were correct and I was just suffering from white fragility or whatever. It was a serious mental health issue that I did seek therapy for from 2019-2021.
I'm just now emerging from all this stuff emotionally, and Substacks like yours have helped a great deal. America, please don't bring this shit back in our homes again. Please.
My impression is that (1) this stuff is slowing down. But also, (2) I have to question the intellectual competence of all the people who reacted to "woke" stuff on Twitter with votes for Federal candidates. Despite what Fox News will tell you, there's not a ton of "woke stuff" being implemented by the Democratic party at the Federal level. On the other hand, the institutional GOP and their Judicial appointees are actually promoting some pretty intense and reactionary policies. See e.g., policies designed the President more direct control over the FBI (to promote his vendettas); new state laws and court decisions against abortion and social media free speech; a close 5-4 SCOTUS vote that almost overturned centuries of Federal supremacy at the border, etc. Whether you like them or not, these policies have real stakes that affect how actual people live, whereas "woke" is mostly a social media phenomenon.
Don't even get me started on the "every state for itself" disaster that was the Federal response to the pandemic in 2020/21 (wherein my own state's Republican governor had to use state police to protect PPE shipments *from the Federal government*) [1]. I cannot believe we've memory-holed that stuff. These things all really matter, in a way that "woke stuff" does not.
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/politics/larry-hogan-coronavirus-masks-national-guard/index.html
I agree with you. That's why in spite of all the unpleasant woke stuff, I never once thought about voting for the GOP. But I've seen far too many people react to woke stuff by embracing full blown reactionary politics. They just turn their backs on decades of supporting liberalism and pull a 180.
It's extremely frustrating. The root of all of it IMHO is that those people are way too Online and need to touch grass more. A lot more.
The extremely online crowd has moved on to Israel/Palestine now.
Sadly, the extremely online have moved to street theater as well.
I think you should consider the possibility that Trump's election didn't cause wokeness, which is why your friends haven't recovered even after years of him being gone, and the apparent "calm" is only there because the highly woke media and upper classes feel that they are winning.
The usual date given for the start of the Great Awokening is 2012. There's a lot of evidence for this based on word frequency.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/02/update-on-the-new-york-times-word-frequency-chart.html
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/06/the-nytimes-is-woke.html
As you can see, the inflection point is around 2010-2012, not 2016. By that point wokeness had already gone parabolic.
Of course it started before Trump won. But he gave it an injection of steroids.
It's true that in the short term Trump is a chaotic candidate. The question is whether in the long term it isn't actually Biden who is turning the United States, by accepting unchecked illegal immigration, into a not-so-functional Latin state like Venezuela or at least Brazil.
I will write more about that, but the answer is no. Our asylum laws are broken and need to be fixed, but Biden isn't the root cause of the issue.
This is a case where challenging Republicans to do some of what they want might have been helpful
First, in no way is the border unchecked. There has and will always be illegal immigration as it is nearly impossible to secure a border so long and over such geography.
Biden has continued to build the border wall and improve enforcement, sources:
https://www.factcheck.org/2023/10/bidens-border-wall-explained/
How do the numbers stack up?
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/16/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/
*through 2021.
The numbers look pretty stable on that graph.
In 2022 it increased to about 11.35 million, so maybe a 10% increase: https://cis.org/Report/Estimating-Illegal-Immigrant-Population-Using-Current-Population-Survey
Immigration has more to do with the places people are leaving, given drug/crime problems in central and south america, as well as people looking for freedom and opportunity in the USA.
To compare the USA to Venezuela is laughable.
To compare it to Brazil is interesting. In what ways is Brazil not functional?
What type of experience do you have in Brazil and Venezuela? Why do you find them similar to the USA under Biden and Trump?
People are leaving South and Central America for the United States because they want to live in a society where European culture is dominant, due to the enormous positive influences European culture has on wealth, innovation, low crime, and generally high trust among strangers. In a global sense, the United States being European will also support liberal democracies and stand against China, Russia, Iran, and Jihadism, as it saved the world from Nazism 70 years ago.
The only problem is that not only these migrants, whom I completely understand and in no way want to demonize, have a desire to live in European culture. The current residents of the United States also want to remain a country where the dominant culture is European. As long as you control immigration and integration and navigate it carefully, it is possible to combine the two aspirations. When you burst the gates wildly and irresponsibly as the Biden administration does, you create an inevitable conflict.
The gates are not "burst [open] wildly and irresponsibly", you have refused to engage with what Ben Fox has laid out, your European culture angle is weird and wrong, and you can't just say things over and over again like they're facts.
America is American, not European, there is a distinct difference, and neither being European nor assimilating into a European culture are requirements for being American, and buddy I'm going to be honest, not accusing you of being a groyper, but this European culture bit is classic groyper shit. America is America, it is a new and better form of society that is not European, not Asian, not any region, not anything blood or soil, it has vast powers of assimilation, integration and incorporation, it is an idea that allows for the most human flourishing seen yet in the history of civilization and I don't know what to tell you if you think it's so fragile and bound to some weird neoclassical sense of "European" culture (although wink wink right?)
I won't be responding to any more of your replies and I urge all others who see my comment to do the same.
Wow, your last words are really like a parody of the culture of silencing by the elites. And then it's surprising that people follow Trump and the Groypers (I actually didn't know the term and had to Google it. No, I'm not a racist of white supremacy, but I am aware that historically and culturally, European culture has been the engine of liberalism in the last 300 years).
Historically a lot of places were bastions of liberalism in comparison to the time period... the middle east was at one point, so was China. I am not sure historically that really means much when you can cherry pick.
But like the data showed, numbers haven't really changed under Biden.
Islam was never, ever “liberal”.
You can say whatever you want in these comments. However, no one has the obligation to respond to you. That's not "silencing."
It's not our skin color or lineage that makes us have Western culture, it's the environment we are raised in. Anyone born here or arriving here at an early age is an American. If we are failing to pass along our values to future generations of Americans, that is our failure as a society - we have to engage marginalized communities and be a shining example for the world. It has nothing to do with immigrants, who can be educated as easily as anyone else can.
If I look at the Americans and US residents who don't support Western values it largely isn't the immigrants - it's MAGA. MAGA is corrupt, authoritarian, divisive, belligerent, lazy, and ignorant. These are the ones that we failed to Westernize and these are the ones that threaten our democracy.
Not the hypothetical as of yet unrealized world in which some children of immigrants support a robust social safety net (god forbid).
Unfortunately, it seems your perspective may be dangerously misguided. The approach to integration has proven to be a resounding failure in nations like Sweden and France, as can be seen with second-generation immigrants. Sometimes, the stark realities of life need to confront and challenge our rose-colored theories. Additionally, if white liberals are genuinely concerned about racial superiority, they should critically reflect on the notion that a European-American heritage could easily overshadow other cultural heritages in immigrant communities. This belief in an automatic and universal adaptation to the American way of life, dismissing the traditions immigrants bring with them, could itself be considered a form of racial superiority. These traditions include very nice things, like food and celebrations. But not only them.
Americans have lived this many times. Irish, Germans, and Italians, were at times considered too foreign to assimilate - now its hard for Americans to imagine a time it was ever any different. Right now we have many regional success stories of powerful assimilation, especially in cities - Hispanic Texan Republicans, Asian Californian Tech CEOs, Chinese American Research Scientists, Indian American Doctors. The places and professions that have the highest rates of immigrants are the very places that Americans express the fewest reservations about immigration. They are the most economically and culturally successful places in the country.
We don't have to speculate, it's clear you are wrong. Americans live this everyday.
You should spend more time thinking about why your expectations are wrong. Either you are as wrong about other countries as you are about America, or you should think about how assimilation in other countries can learn from the American model.
How is it that a MIT graduate maintains a certain standards and culture all while the entire MIT undergraduate class turns over every four years? America is the same - its a place that turns people into Americans.
As the grandchild of one of those thought-to-be unassimilated immigrants, I am grateful for the 1924 immigration law that allowed him the space to assimilate and build a home and family without being economically undermined by mass immigration of yet more poor people from southern Italy.
Great examples. In those regions, not only is it an assimilation but at times, an advancement and improvement on the current culture.
Where in the data for Sweden and France can you point me to "resounding failure"? I'd really like to see that.
Sweden has developed an extremely serious problem with bombings and grenade attacks, invariably the work of migrants. This just wasn't a problem before, and still isn't in the smaller towns and villages that remain primarily Swedish. Malmö on the other hand ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombings_in_Sweden
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50339977
One completely random example of quick googling
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/30/the-muslim-effect-on-immigrant-integration-in-france-2/
Immigration is the poster child for the debility of the Democratic Party. It’s a running sore for them politically, and Biden knows it, but he evidently cannot control the leftists in the party who truly do want open borders. Whether this is his personal failure or an indication that the party is ungovernable, it indicates that the party is incapable of governing responsibly across the board. Americans have the choice of chaos with Trump or dangerous incompetence with the Democrats.
Can the extremist open-borders faction of the Democrats be likened to the extremist pro-Russia faction of the Republicans?
I don’t know that you can liken them to each other but it is sure a reason why I don’t want to vote Republican.
People are leaving countries (including those settled by Europeans) where social, political and economic unrest have made life impossible for many, just as Europeans did for 300 years.
Did you actually read those links? they do not suggest calm at the border by any means, the Pew link actually says migrant encounters at the border have reached record highs. Maybe ask Eric Adams or the several black and brown community groups in Chicago.
This is one of those issues where Dems have decided to pretend nothing is happening, like critical race theory and genderwang in schools. It's happening, people are not making these concerns up.
The numbers are not that different under Biden than other presidents.
What are you seeing?
Why does it affect you so much? I am curious, why is this so important to you personally?
According to Noah, the main cause of homelessness is lack of housing. We do not have the housing for all these people coming in. There are a lot of ways to slice and dice the numbers to make it look this way or that, but otoh there are article after article of the crisis on the southern border, you must have seen one. I include one to make the point.
"Migrant crossings soar to near-record levels, testing Biden's border strategy"
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/border-crossings-migrants-us-mexico-biden-strategy/
When, in 2035, someone writes a book length treatment of the causes of illegal immigration into the United States during the 2020’s, how prominently do you think it will feature Joe Biden’s personal decision making?
Let’s say that the whole book wasn’t really a book, but it was just a single paragraph blaming Joe Biden for illegal immigration; would your intuition be that this was a well researched argument?
If you read the blog of economist Scott Sumner, he often insists that the Federal Reserve creates inflation, not just fails to curb it. Although the debate is a bit semantic, there is significance to this principle. Someone who has absolute power in a certain matter, like the Federal Reserve in the matter of inflation/money creation and like Joe Biden in creating incentives against illegal immigration, cannot escape by claiming he is a victim of fate. He bears the absolute responsibility.
How does Joe Biden have absolute power in illegal immigration?
The law binds him. Congress could change it but they haven't? In fact didn't the GOP house decline to create a bill so they can use it as a talking point in the upcoming election?
In every Western country, a leader who wants to stop illegal immigration faces two obstacles: the parliament and the supreme court. In Australia, they managed to overcome both obstacles, and the boats stopped coming. In Germany, they managed to stop the flood when they signed an agreement with Erdogan. In Britain, they are unable to overcome opposition in the parliament and the supreme court, and the Rwanda plan is not being implemented. In Poland, nothing prevented the government from stopping the migrants, and Putin and Lukashenko's plan to torment Europeans by bringing in migrants collapsed.
Biden has a right-wing Congress that will agree to any right-wing idea, and a Supreme Court that will agree to any right-wing idea. Even the Democrats will not object if he says the flood is too great and there is no choice. Even humanitarian countries like Sweden and Denmark decided one day that enough is enough. Therefore, the conclusion is that there is illegal immigration only because he decided so, and for no other reason.
Seems to me what you’ve described is the opposite of the conclusion you’ve drawn. It’s actually 100% within the power of Congress to write laws that change the illegal immigration question. Congress can even overcome the objections of the President, and the reverse is not true. And because Congress writes the laws, they are in the best position to navigate any objections from the Supreme Court.
You completely miss the fact that there likely would be NO immigration issue if the laws ALREADY ON THE BOOKS were being enforced. Biden has CHOSEN not to enforce them. It is clear where the blame lies. You can try to sweet talk your way around all kinds of niceties, but his violation of the laws are profound. If you are interested, read Governor Abbot's letter of yesterday. The constitutional issues are clear as is Biden's abrogation of duty.
other Presidents have at least managed it way better, there seems to be no management whatsoever by Biden. Obama deported a lot of illegal immigrants, I was a farmer in Ca dependent on their labor when Obama was President and he made it so tough for them to get across the border they stopped coming. It was actually bad. White House policy has a huge impact on the border, if they know they can't get across they stop coming.
Proof? Data?
I found this data here:
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/03/02/how-border-apprehensions-ice-arrests-and-deportations-have-changed-under-trump/
Under Trump ICE arrests went way lower than Obama. Same for deportations.
But that is probably because of COVID given that stopped all migration globally.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61989673
There are graphs there showing Biden is doing a ton. Not sure what to say. You can see that they are expelling and apprehending people the same year after year. Covid allowed some emergency changes to how they processed people and kept them in Mexico partly, but you can read up on that nuance.
Asylum laws allow for people to make legal filings. Call your house rep and get CONGRESS to actually fix something. Biden enforces laws, Congress makes them.
What do you want here? How does this impact you? Why does it matter?
I imagine you find a great deal of psychic value in reducing the complexity of the world down to the single variable of “that which Joe Biden wills to be”. I tend to think a more nuanced understanding has value, but there may be no bridge between us here worth brokering (Popper be damned).
Good luck with everything!
Hi Tamritz, I am a US citizen now and a (legal) Venezuelan immigrant 👋. The US is a magnet for immigrants, and that’s hardly new. The US has also been remarkably successful in integrating its immigrants (see Noah’s recent article). The US also needs to put controls on its borders and develop a better immigration policy. Having said that, the US will not become Venezuela or any other failed state just by letting a fraction of its current population in. Most of them come to work, abide by law and raise their families. I can argue that the US will never become Venezuela (radically different starting conditions), however, you have a point in saying the US might deteriorate, buy only if it lets its society and democracy erode.
I don't think we are divided in our opinions about what needs to be done. In any case, one should never underestimate the impact of bad incentives. A government that decides, under the influence of crazy woke circles, that it needs to incentivize smugglers to bring the world's poor population into it, will find that incentives work with amazing effectiveness.
I recall Dana Lind, the immigration correspondent for Vox and by no means a right-wing or racist voice, to say the least, being utterly taken aback by Hillary Clinton's strong pro-open borders stance during her 2016 debates with Bernie Sanders.
I don't think any mainstream politician has ever had a "pro open borders" stance.
Can you point to where Hilary Clinton said that or said that?
https://www.vox.com/2016/3/9/11191364/hillary-clinton-immigration
ya she didn't say that and the article is about a huge immigration reform bill....
Spot on, Tamritz.
Two centuries of almost unchecked immigration has turned this country into a hellhole.
. . . /s
Do you "Liberals" ever ask yourself WHY so many vote for Trump? Maybe you should try to understand normal people (you know, those who work with their hands), instead of permanently teaching them what to think.
I understand why *some* people vote for Trump, but people do it for a lot of different reasons, just like people vote for Biden for a lot of different reasons.
I don't "teach people what to think", I offer my assessments and opinions. They're here for you to consider, and you can take them or leave them.
Your comments of Trump are based on all these left wing arrogance and moralism, which drive voters to Trump. Ask yourself WHY people vote for Trump, Brexit, AfD, Front National, Sweden Democrats? Because they know that the "Liberals" despise them, because they are taken for a ride.
I think you perceiving Noah's assessment and opinions as arrogant moralism says more about how your brain is cooked than it does about Noah
I can never understand why the focus is on liberals looking down on conservatives, when conservatives look down on liberals at least as much.
I agree with you on the importance of "teaching" or sharing assessments/opinions. However, I think Klaus' first point on "understanding normal people" is relevant. I live in Arkansas. Democratic politicians have pretty much given up on red states like ours. They don't come here, they don't listen. Therefore, they cannot understand. Stereotypes run rampant. Democrats that raise this point get ostracized, and now they are pretty much extinct. You cannot educate someone unless you have built a trust relationship first. I used to live in Texas, and Beto O'Rourke understood this but he came to the party too late. "Normal people" don't trust "liberals" or "elites". Why should they? That's the problem.
My dad works with his hands, my stepmom works with her hands, neither are voting for Trump. There isn't some weird divide over people who work with their hands versus those who don't and how they vote. Just another way to break out stats and I am not sure is that helpful to understand anything.
I do agree that Trump's rise in popularity is a symptom of a lot of deep issues in the USA with things like housing cost, health care costs, licensing gone crazy, minimum wage and the decline of unions, etc etc...
But Trump doesn't address those with policies or real change... he just uses fear mongering to make people scared of the "other." Something the GOP built their party on over the last 15 years. Now they are stuck riding a tiger they can't get off.
Consider this - what choice do such normal people have. Trump may or may not do anything about their concerns, but the Democrats certainly won’t.
I don't understand, choice about what?
Biden has done a ton of things... I'll point to just one that rocks my families world, that is the bill to allow the gov to actually negotiate for drug prices. Sure it is just 10 drugs to start but that is a huge start in allowing the gov to practice free market capitalism in negotiating pricing. Insulin is a big deal too.
The list of what Biden has done is pretty dang long, what is missing for you right now?
Those are all good things, but in a wholly different register from what I am talking about. We are not in transactional time. The Democrats will not do anything about the educated classes ruling the country according to their (strange and unpopular) values, but Trump might. Democrats won't prioritize the interests of ordinary American citizens on immigration, or trade, or the economy, but Trump might.
Given that you’ve already seen Trump in action, it seems strange to speculate favourably on what he ‘might’ do.
It’s like you’re choosing to think the worst of Biden but also choosing to take a very generous view of Trump.
To give you one example: (like many non-Americans) I can see that the US healthcare system is not working very well for many normal Americans, and it’s very expensive compared to other countries. This is a huge problem that should be part of every voter’s considerations.
In 2016 it might have been reasonable to say “Trump might do better”.
By 2020 it was obvious that Republicans had no healthcare plan. Trump regularly lied that a plan was ‘coming soon’.
Has Trump done anything to suggest that he would rectify this failure if given a second chance?
I don’t think he has. And on that basis it’s more reasonable to assume he would disregard ordinary people in a second term, just like he did in the first.
I like Biden himself (as opposed to the Democrats) quite well. But there is a huge wave coming in America. Trump is just riding it. At this moment the details of healthcare policies just don’t matter. What matters is trust in the basic character of our government. A very large number of ordinary people are fed up with the way both parties are running their country into the ground. They are not looking for policy initiatives, rather they want some things said and heeded. Trump is saying them,the Democrats are not. Which is why someone of such vast deficiencies is doing so frighteningly well. It is not for us to tell them that they should be looking at it differently.
I don't understand.
What are you wanting that you are not getting?
I am an ordinary American, I am happy with a lot of things he is doing. What are you specifically wanting when it comes to immigration, trade, or the economy?
Went to school and the teacher said the Earth was round. Made me so angry
"Don't teach me what to think!"
"Let me be wrong, but let me never encounter a contrary opinion!"
"Don't teachers ever follow the whims of opinionated children?"
Understanding why people vote for Trump has been a constant talking point in both traditional media and social media for at least eight years.
At this point I’d be more surprised if anyone hadn’t thought about it.
I think you’re on the wrong track with your implication that ‘normal people’ vote for Trump.
My observation is that the core of his base is abnormal. Specifically: weak-minded people who are vulnerable to feelings of resentment and anger.
The core of Trumps base is a bunch of freaks, as are the terrorist-loving leftists who are in the Democratic Party. That’s not most people.
There is a big difference:
If Republicans nominate Trump, the normals will be unhappy (although they ought to blame themselves for not voting) and the crazies will be delighted.
If the Democrats nominate Biden, the normals will be (somewhat) happy and the crazies will be furious.
I've been predicting this for a few years now and I don't know why the Democrats couldn't get their act together and find an alternative candidate. Gavin Newsom would have been just the white guy the white supremacist supporters of Trump would have a hard time disliking. I'm really surprised they want Biden to run against Trump.
The MAGAnuts hate Gavin Newsome just as much, if not more than Biden; DeSantis even debated him for no apparent reason. I think you bought too much into the “Trump supporters are all racists” talking point that the dems and MSM put out. Maybe Biden kicks the bucket, and if Harris steps aside (while laughing maniacally) we could end up with Dean Phillips as their candidate and I would even vote for him, but never Newsome.
Sure, I'm not an American nor knowledgeable about American electoral politics. Just wish they had a serious conversation amongst themselves and prepared a candidate two heads back
They hate the California governor so much they think misspelling his last name with an e at the end is a clever insult.
I knew some.
A long time ago a teacher told me that a lot of Buddhist in Tibet view Mao as both a curse/blessing, the blessing being that he caused Tibetan buddhism to leave Tibet and spread all over the world.
I am trying to view Trump through the same lens...
If Trump wins and dissolves NATO and strikes down the international order we all know, maybe something better rises from that. Maybe Europe gets a unified defense organization and starts getting serious about protecting and promoting Europe's interest. Maybe they actively get more involved in Ukraine and provide the funds/supplies Ukraine needs. Maybe they start getting more serious about China and the gov subsidies that gov is using to promote certain industries.
But on the other hand, that is an incredible dangerous period and there is no guarantee it goes the way we want.
Interesting times.
And perhaps if we wipe out the human race, a better species will evolve in our place! Still, I'm going to vote "no" on that. 😉
Hah don't take away my silver lining, keeps me slightly hopeful in case of the worst case scenario :)
I have high hopes for Octopi
Same. I need to go back and finish that sci-fi story I was writing about the octopus version of Isaac Newton inventing calculus and physics underwater...
I'd like to be under the sea in an octopus's garden in the shade.
But suppose it's cockroaches?
Wow, Noah, you're risking losing your maga audience and your Nietzschean audience as well today. :)
Let’s call it plan B
or AI replaces us, as Elon says: don’t be specieist.
That was Larry Page talking TO Elon Musk, not the other way around!
I'd go a step further. Trump was a virus for the global liberal ecosystem. His second coming would actually be less chaotic. The world has been inoculated and people would just ignore him the way they ignore KJU. The role of the US as a global policeman would diminish and middle powers would work together to discipline revanchists. The EU or European leaders could actually become a force to reckon with diplomatically even if they don't have the strength economically. What will disrupt the world would be the 10% tax on all US imports. China, Chinese consumers and Western Europe would become much stronger as a reliable trade partner/market.
Yes, but last time Trump was temporary. I am not sure whether the US Supreme Court is inoculated against him yet.
Since Brexit the only nuclear power in Europe is France, and given how Germany can’t even stand peaceful nuclear or to agree with France on much, I don’t think Europe can or will take over global police duties.
You know the UK is still in Europe, right? The EU is not the same thing as Europe, and in case of nuclear war Brussels wouldn't matter much anyway!
Is there a next round after the time of chaos and suffering? If so, your argument makes sense. The problem with geopolitical competitions is that the winner tends to end the game for a very long time, there simply isn't a second round.
A Russian Empire in Eastern Europe would be there to stay, same with Chinese domination of Southeast Asia and parts of Africa in case they decide to go there.
Noah, I had a question for you.
What happens if Trump dies during the campaign (given his age/health)?
How does that work legally and within the GOP party system to pick someone else?
Does it go to his VP nominee legally or traditionally, or might they pick someone else? IE, can the GOP party just pick anyone they want?
Is this something you could address or explain as I was really curious :)
They pick someone else.
https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden-death-what-happens
oh wow, that is 10x more simple then I thought, crazy town.
Yes, the covid vaccine saved countless lives but how many more would have been saved if a president that respected science had been in the White House? He probably would have immediately formed a blue ribbon panel like Biden did and taken Covid much more seriously from the outset instead of downplaying the seriousness and sending mixed messages.
I argue that a science respecting President with a panel of experts at his side might have expedited the roll out of personnel protective equipment for health care professionals. They also might have come to the conclusion sooner about rolling out vaccines. Remember Pfizer basically had theirs designed at the end of January when Trump was downplaying the pandemic.
You say he did right thing by being hands off. I say he was too busy campaigning and promoting the big lie that the 2020 election might be stolen. He botched the distribution and wider acceptance of the vaccine because he politicized and weaponized the pandemic.
I'm sorry, I just don't believe Trump should get credit for saving millions of lives during the pandemic. I actually think he cost many lives that could have saved with the right person at the helm.
I'm sorry, I don't think someone who suggests injecting bleach as a cure for Covid on live national TV should get credit for saving countless lives.
Science-respecting? Like Fauci and Collins? Read the latest article from Emily Koop about how NIH and EcoHealth had a hand in funding the probable research in Wuhan than started the pandemic.
https://usrtk.org/covid-19-origins/scientists-proposed-making-viruses-with-unique-features-of-sars-cov-2-in-wuhan/
I'm not convinced a different US administration could have done much better in 2020 re Covid, because the US isn't an isolated island with easily sealable borders (like Australia, NZ or Taiwan) or a totalitarian surveillance state where almost everyone lives in a walled compound (China).
We will never know but in 2017 Trump closed the office that was designed to help the nation prepare for pandemics, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/nsc-pandemic-office-trump-closed/2020/03/13/a70de09c-6491-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html .
Noah, you are right to focus on chaos. That really does override everything else.
Are you being too generous to the 2017 tax law? You probably know better, but the reports I've read assert that it widened both inequality and the deficit. Here is an analysis of what the effect would be of extending all the provisions,
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/4/11/long-term-effects-of-permanent-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act
Your thoughtful analysis has to be among the best, especially your perspective on Trump ushering in a break with the bipartisan neoliberal economic thinking that ignored the necessity of investing in the US with Trump-Biden years delivering Warp Speed, Covid relief acts, the Chips and Inflatable Reduction Acts et. al. which changed the trajectory of the economy. Americans are at their best when they agree their shared aspirations are integrity, commitment and gratitude. That’s where Liz Cheney and Rachel Maddow meet. Donald Trump and his enablers are the opposite of those values which is why he is the chaos agent and corrupt as all tyrants and would be tyrants prove to be. When corruption prevails no one is safe and secure. That is why everyone close to Trump is immediately a prospective casualty and democracy unravels as a consequence because there is no trust. Only fear, which of course is secret sauce of chaos. Thank you.
Trump is a political entertainer. He loves to hear himself talk and see himself on TV: vanity of vanities, Donald John is thy name.
He tries to be funny, a comedian, and his crowd does laugh at his jokes, such as they are. He's so vain that he's playing a game: Look At Me: I'm Famous, Funny, Rich, And Cool. He's a narcissist's narcissist. He unintentionally mocks himself, but he doesn't get the joke; he believes himself to be the greatest American ever. Does one laugh or cry at this self-scripted charade of a leader?
If there was a god, he may forgive him because this man really does not know what the hell he's doing. Yet tens of millions of Americans love him. Can 70 million fans be wrong? Tragically, they can and are.
Donald J. Trump will likely get some 75 million people to vote for him this fall and, as you point to the betting markets, has a better than even chance of returning to the presidency. Isn’t it time, Noah, (maybe well past time) that we ask ourselves if such an elected leader as our head of state isn’t really a function of two generations of a monopolistic, union-run, pretty damn mediocre public K-12 education system?
The irony is: if Trump is the outcome of a non-functional education system, why in the world would he (or his party) ever promote policies that improve the system?
Incumbent presidents in any decent economy are re-elected. “It’s the economy, stupid,” James Caravelle, Clinton’s campaign manager, made the main emphasis of the campaign. Bush peré got beat by a bad economy. The Vibecession is over. Voters polled about their personal finances are positive by more than 60%. Barring a geopolitical event, the economy will continue to grow.
“The new axis of China, Russia, and Iran threatens to achieve dominance of the Eurasian continent, home to two-thirds of the world’s population and two-thirds of global GDP.”
This nexus is overrated. Nobody has done more to damage an economy for generations than Putin and Xi. This is what makes them dangerous. The U.S. became the self-sufficient, independent producer of fossil fuels with a massive build-out of energy infrastructure and pioneering fracking, as well as cost-efficiency (six or more horizontal drills radiating from a single well-head. Pundits can talk all they want about China attacking Taiwan, but a blockade would quickly deplete its energy supply. As for Putin, he put himself at the mercy of China’s low-price energy consumption because of his invasion of Ukraine. The world still runs on conventional energy sources. The Saudis underestimated the U.S. energy sector and created a massive reaction called the U.S. Shale Gale. OPEC was permanently weakened. Full stop.
Invade Taiwan and the workers walk-off the job, followed a worldwide recession triggered by the high-tech sector. ASML is building a huge second manufacturing facility and corporate campus in Taiwan to meet the coming needs of the AI Bubble. Where China is a future threat is in the lagging/edge chip sector (20nm), which is crucial to the military, automotive, appliance industries -- to name just a few. The U.S. should be building lagging-edge chip fabs across the Rust Belt, where abundant sources of fresh water exist (Great Lakes). This would do double duty: a huge and necessary economic shot in the arm and a counter to China’s only playing card in the computer chip sector.
As for Trump, now that the economy has created an unprecedented number of new businesses for three consecutive years, real-wage gains for the lowest quartile of workers, I trust voters don’t want to see an Agent Orange (Trump) blast radius on the horizon.
Our institutions withstood Trump once and they can again. This is not a fragile country. The biggest issue is that Biden is a poor candidate, advanced age and obvious decline being the most acute in the public eye. Biden is also losing a part of the historical Democratic base, people of color, working class, etc., and it doesn't help that he has no message beyond I’m not the orange monkey man. What does he and the party stand for?
Why don’t we stop warning the world about Trump and start pressuring the Democratic party to select someone who can win regardless of what happens with Trump.
Problem solved….
Too late.
Actuarial odds on an 80 year old American man dieing within a year are about 7%, probably higher for someone with a stressful job and with the latest life expectancy declines.