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Bill Flarsheim's avatar

I suspect there will be an AI bust before the benefits of AI (machine learning) show up in national productivity data. Computers and the Internet went through similar shakeouts. I don’t think today’s much hyped LLMs will ever produce anything but mediocre prose and six fingered people. OTOH, when companies invest the resources to use machine learning for drug discovery, power grid management, or process control there are large opportunities for improved productivity, but this will only become apparent when the LLM hype fades.

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rahul razdan's avatar

Interesting and important topic. Generally agree with the conclusions... productivity up, competitive advantages exist, and creative destruction is very important. However, the data collection and metrics leave a lot of questions. For example, how is outsourcing accounted for in this flow. This was the predominant economic reality in the period where it is claimed that productivity was flat.

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