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Greg L.'s avatar

I think the fundamental logic here is more or less correct, but complicating the analysis and (IMO) making it even more likely that a Chinese attack on Taiwan precipitates WW3 are a few additional factors you don't get into here.

For one, this isn't a binary game between two actors - other countries which are major or regional powers in their own right will likely have a say in whether the situation escalates (most notably Japan, but possibly also South Korea, Australia, Vietnam, etc.). Okinawa hosts a major US base that is even closer to Taiwan than Guam is, and a Chinese attack on that base would also be an act of war against Japan that would likely make it extremely likely to escalate as well.

Secondly, we live in a much richer information environment than we did in the era of Pearl Harbor - with surveillance satellites, modern signals intelligence, and the like, there's no way China would be able to keep a comprehensive attack against either Taiwan or major US bases a secret until the last second. We'd see it coming and have time to prepare and/or escalate our defensive posture, which might cause the Chinese to think better of it, but also might lead to risky gambles on their part.

Finally there's the vital economic importance of Taiwan - this isn't a relative hinterland like 1938 Czechoslovakia was, this is a country that plays a crucial role in the modern global economy. China invading it would be more akin to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait than to Hitler's pre-war conquests.

I don't think there's any Taiwan invasion scenario that isn't a massive and very dangerous gamble for the CCP. That doesn't mean Xi won't be dumb enough to try it (he doesn't strike me as an especially insightful or competent leader) but we have to hope that he decides the risk isn't worth it.

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DxS's avatar

China's military pattern since the revolution is to "slice the salami" with gradual escalations. (Very unlike the Russian coup-de-main approach of all-or-nothing sudden strikes!)

The "salami" Chinese approach forfeits some surprise, but maximizes political flexibility and lets them either push on weakness or pull back from unexpected strength. Also it lets both sides have a face-saving deal.

If that pattern continues, I expect China to blockade, not invade, Taiwan. Much more controllable for Beijing.

We could still get WW3 out of that, of course: suppose America sends a supply convoy to Taiwan, and a Chinese submarine sinks some American ships...

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