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Sean Fulop's avatar

Upward nominal wage rigidity is so obviously a thing, I can't believe anyone would discount it. I have unique access to this phenomenon, as a Professor (top rank) at a 3rd-class public non-research university. Faculty salaries here do not have cost-of-living adjustments. Once we have reached the top rank (I call myself a "gargoyle") we are both 100% job-locked (no other university in its right mind would hire any one of us) and subject to the results of union negotiations. Our paychecks might be the same for years on end, unless the union can negotiate an increase here and there. The union can point to inflation and beg and plead, but the idea that they could ever win a 10% increase in a single year is laughable. 3% per year for 3 years is considered a huge win.

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Charles Ryder's avatar

Interesting piece. And although I agree with Noah that it seems highly likely there's probably something deeper at work (that economists need to research), I was intrigued by this sentence:

>>Another possible reason is that everyone keeps expecting inflation to be transitory.<<

The above rings credible to my ears, although I might be tempted to replace "expecting" with "hoping." It's a royal P.I.A. to switch jobs. In some cases doing so means moving to a different city. Perhaps a super expensive one. In many cases (yes, even in this age of remote work) it entails screwing up your commute. And who wants to move when you've got a good deal on rent or your kids are happy in school? There's also spousal income to consider, which has been linked to a general decline in employment-related geographic mobility.

Plus, there's this: for most workers I'd imagine that "amount of time with an employer" correlates positively (almost by definition) with job security. The employee who has been working for a given employer for (say) nine years is understandably going to be nervous about making a move to a job where the long term prospects for stability are questionable. This is all the more true given the fact that, in the US at least, it wasn't all that long ago that underemployment was a persistent, nagging problem (and indeed we had a scary episode of *mass* unemployment only 2.5 years ago!). So a lot of workers have vivid memories of a recent, weaker job market, and thus they're understandably hoping for the best in terms of their own wages rather than getting into a situation characterized by less job security that increases the risk of joblessness.

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