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Tapen Sinha's avatar

There is a fundamental question: Do our models represent the "real world" sufficiently so that any policy experiment on a model would actually work out there?

Having studied in Minnesota, taking classes with Sargent, Prescott, Wallace, Sims and Hurwicz, I came out convinced that DSGE models that *assume* linearity right at the outset (with quadratic utility function for all participants if not outright identical ones) is far far away from reality. Leo Hurwicz taught us (taking a cue from Koopmans) that utility function additive in time require absurd assumptions about the preferences of the participants.

All of this is shoved under the carpet in a Lucas island model.

For the economics profession, what it has done is to completely take over the macro research. IMHO, in the long run, it has done more damage than help.

Executive summary: In the even longer run, we know what will happen to us as Keynes noted.

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Ning's avatar

While I'm sure this is meant to be complimentary, this ultimately sounds like he posed some interesting research work that ended up being counterproductive and probably hurt the economy. In the end we ended up with the old Keynesian insights. The market monetarists and monetarists can pretend they have something altogether new but it all builds on Keynesianism in the end.

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