Thanks for all of your excellent writing this last year.
One thing that was not addressed in the recap is whether the Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs, and what will happen if they do. If Trump had any kind of self awareness he would take it as a face saving way out of an unpopular policy that is hurting the economy. But of course he will lash out. I think we will see even more of his outbursts in the coming year as his popularity continues to fall and his lame duck status becomes more and more apparent.
Regarding the interesting observation that Americans may be coming to 'fear the future'.
In the 20th century, the future was led by American inventions, American inventors were celebrated... so why would be afraid of a future that we were leading!
With the death/devolution of the giant corporate R and D labs in the US (Bell Labs, IBM, Exxon) most major technology breakthroughs (not in software and human interface) were made by large corporate labs in EU and Asia (Phillips, Sony, etc).
The 21st century future is not America branded. Much of that electric tech stack had its major R and D done elsewhere.
But maybe we will own space, the high frontier, and figure out how to build some of that stack American-style. And then the future will appeal to (most) young people again.
I see what you're saying...But didn't we invent all the AI stuff? And isn't America among the most AI-fearing countries in the world? Not to mention that we invented mRNA vaccines but we're also the epicenter of the antivax movement?
"The administration’s falling popularity, as well as emerging divisions between various factions on the right, will act as a partial check on Trump’s program. So I predict a more static, less terrifying year in the world of politics and policy."
You've talked before about the stock market seeming to be Trump's largest measuring stick for himself (along with the whole idea of TACO). Do you think falling polls but continued growth of the AI bubble would still lead to more stasis? I can see it but also wouldn't be shocked to see a rising market used as justification for continued meddling.
That's a great question. But my instinct is that Trump's reference point for stocks is always pretty recent. If stocks rise 1000 points over 3 months and then fall 200 points in a day, he'll still read the negative headlines and get more cautious, I think.
Looking to Silver Bulletin average published yesterday 26th (https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) they note the erosion of the components of support, "Strong" approve eroding. Unless there is some surprising change to competency, it seems most likely that ongoing poor economics (without falling into prediction of crisis) will eat like acid away at approval and when one is getting on Pocket Book issues approvals in the low 40s-to-30s, the political leverage he has is going to weaken further. Trump being who he is is likely to lash out and be unhelpful to himself. AI macro infra build bubble seems to me unlikely to fully off-set wider erosion from ongoing bubbling inflation and ebbing wider economic growth.
Now can Democrats pull their heads out of Woke and drop self-harming posturing? ...
"Updated November 26, 2025
Happy Thanksgiving, Silver Bulletin readers! Donald Trump’s net approval rating has been hovering around -14 since last week. As of today, 41.1 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing and 55.3 percent disapprove. I’d expect that consistency to continue through Sunday, just because we aren’t likely to see too many new polls come out over Thanksgiving weekend.
But the share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump is still decreasing: it hit a second term low of 24.0 percent yesterday. On the other hand, 44.7 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump."
I can see retrenchment in 2026... but I worry about chaotic events and chaos within the Trump administration. The Epstein story shambles onward, and Trump is ramping up his pressure on Venezuela.
My sense is that Trump is not a warmonger... but he is certainly a bully, and can draw on the long American history of striking various enemies short of war to score points.
Really enjoying the post! Also had my coffee and spotted this:
“An AI-driven financial bust could also happen if the AI industry turns out to be much 𝗅̶𝖾̶𝗌̶𝗌̶ more competitive than the traditional software industry.”
Trump is giving progressives energy. I think it is far more likely Democrats will nominate someone like JD Pritzker rather than Amy Klobuchar. If the bases were to get behind a Mark Kelly or Mark Warner, the county would be as well, and they would easily beat a JD Vance or a Marco Rubio.
The stink of the MAGA Presidency will ruin the GOP for some time. Incompetence is the stock-in-trade of the Trump Administration.
We are not going to become a socialist country. Socialism has never worked because it defies human behavior. So you end up needing more and more authoritarian measures to force humans into doing what they are not naturally built for.
There is only one socialist institution in America, and that is the family. We run our families on socialist ideas. Love is the reward.
Whether AGI happens in two or twenty years, if it comes, it will cause havoc. Dislocation will be the feeling, and some jobs will be eliminated. If they can build a robot with human-like hands that walks normally, it would have huge ramifications.
The difference between a China that looms over the world and an America that loomed over the world has no comparison. We rebuilt the world and created institutions that fit naturally into liberal democratic capitalism. We used to want to help and support democracies; we built institutions that help third-world nations. Whatever China is doing, it is not doing so to help mankind. It is fulfilling its dream of global domination. Taking its rightful place as the most powerful nation in to world. It is doing so, while it sits on a pile of corruption and genocide.
That nation may be able to push its way around, but it won’t be admired. MAGA has destroyed whatever goodwill America had. Trump is just hastening our slide.
The Genesis Project? Laughable, this is a man who destroys science. Trump is Godzilla marching through our institutions that made America great, while ruining them. You cannot be a great leader and be morally bankrupt. Eventually, it catches up with you.
A great year of endlessly interesting articles from the best thinker and communicator on the interwebs. Come to Melbourne Australia Noah! I will throw you a party.
Great post Noah! I too am pretty bullish on America bouncing back and solving a lot of our issues.
There are 3 things I'll slightly disagree with you on though.
1 - You say that the MAGA movement feels strangely weak and that MAGA isn't building anything new and its mostly just online rage. I don't really agree with that. The constitutional attacks on all of us whether it be free speech or DHS being able to arrest you because you speak Spanish, and general continued enablement of the executive branch by SCOTUS and Congress are big issues and most Republicans aren't outraged by any of this behaviour and think Trump should keep doing it. Even the fact that the majority of Republicans now think that soldiers and Fed Gov employees should be loyal to Trump, not the Constitution or laws (see the reaction to ships being blown up in Venezuela) is alarming. Additionally, Turning Point USA is a huge organization across the nation on college campuses and in some high schools. I don't see them going away, and then we have the whole Groyper movement which seems to be radicalizing a lot of young men. I think if the election was held again with all the knowledge people have now, Trump would still win because Republicans are overall way more socially regressive than they let on. It seems that they are fine with some authoritarianism as long as they win.
2 - I don't think anyone wants a recession outside of the crazy people who somehow think they won't be affected, or the people that are accelerationists'. However, you say that the AI driven burst probably won't happen in 2026 at all because they are still mostly using their own cash. That is true, but what if the models just don't keep improving and these companies start to just invest a little bit more slowly, won't that slow down the entire thing? Either way we don't know much yet, but I think it'll be tough to know especially if we go another quarter without quality jobs or government reporting.
3 - Can we say that Trump successfully brokered a ceasefire in Gaza when it seems people keep getting blown up and kids keep getting shot every week?
Happy Holidays and a late Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
This was a great recap of 2025.
Thanks for all of your excellent writing this last year.
One thing that was not addressed in the recap is whether the Supreme Court will strike down Trump’s tariffs, and what will happen if they do. If Trump had any kind of self awareness he would take it as a face saving way out of an unpopular policy that is hurting the economy. But of course he will lash out. I think we will see even more of his outbursts in the coming year as his popularity continues to fall and his lame duck status becomes more and more apparent.
Thanks! Yep, that's a big question. I forgot to mention that.
Thanks, Noah! You keep writing and we’ll keep reading.
Regarding the interesting observation that Americans may be coming to 'fear the future'.
In the 20th century, the future was led by American inventions, American inventors were celebrated... so why would be afraid of a future that we were leading!
With the death/devolution of the giant corporate R and D labs in the US (Bell Labs, IBM, Exxon) most major technology breakthroughs (not in software and human interface) were made by large corporate labs in EU and Asia (Phillips, Sony, etc).
The 21st century future is not America branded. Much of that electric tech stack had its major R and D done elsewhere.
But maybe we will own space, the high frontier, and figure out how to build some of that stack American-style. And then the future will appeal to (most) young people again.
I see what you're saying...But didn't we invent all the AI stuff? And isn't America among the most AI-fearing countries in the world? Not to mention that we invented mRNA vaccines but we're also the epicenter of the antivax movement?
Looking forward to another year of Noahpinion!
"The administration’s falling popularity, as well as emerging divisions between various factions on the right, will act as a partial check on Trump’s program. So I predict a more static, less terrifying year in the world of politics and policy."
You've talked before about the stock market seeming to be Trump's largest measuring stick for himself (along with the whole idea of TACO). Do you think falling polls but continued growth of the AI bubble would still lead to more stasis? I can see it but also wouldn't be shocked to see a rising market used as justification for continued meddling.
That's a great question. But my instinct is that Trump's reference point for stocks is always pretty recent. If stocks rise 1000 points over 3 months and then fall 200 points in a day, he'll still read the negative headlines and get more cautious, I think.
Looking to Silver Bulletin average published yesterday 26th (https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) they note the erosion of the components of support, "Strong" approve eroding. Unless there is some surprising change to competency, it seems most likely that ongoing poor economics (without falling into prediction of crisis) will eat like acid away at approval and when one is getting on Pocket Book issues approvals in the low 40s-to-30s, the political leverage he has is going to weaken further. Trump being who he is is likely to lash out and be unhelpful to himself. AI macro infra build bubble seems to me unlikely to fully off-set wider erosion from ongoing bubbling inflation and ebbing wider economic growth.
Now can Democrats pull their heads out of Woke and drop self-harming posturing? ...
"Updated November 26, 2025
Happy Thanksgiving, Silver Bulletin readers! Donald Trump’s net approval rating has been hovering around -14 since last week. As of today, 41.1 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing and 55.3 percent disapprove. I’d expect that consistency to continue through Sunday, just because we aren’t likely to see too many new polls come out over Thanksgiving weekend.
But the share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump is still decreasing: it hit a second term low of 24.0 percent yesterday. On the other hand, 44.7 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump."
Congratulations on building your Substack... It is quite an accomplishment
Thank you!
I can see retrenchment in 2026... but I worry about chaotic events and chaos within the Trump administration. The Epstein story shambles onward, and Trump is ramping up his pressure on Venezuela.
My sense is that Trump is not a warmonger... but he is certainly a bully, and can draw on the long American history of striking various enemies short of war to score points.
Really enjoying the post! Also had my coffee and spotted this:
“An AI-driven financial bust could also happen if the AI industry turns out to be much 𝗅̶𝖾̶𝗌̶𝗌̶ more competitive than the traditional software industry.”
Trump is giving progressives energy. I think it is far more likely Democrats will nominate someone like JD Pritzker rather than Amy Klobuchar. If the bases were to get behind a Mark Kelly or Mark Warner, the county would be as well, and they would easily beat a JD Vance or a Marco Rubio.
The stink of the MAGA Presidency will ruin the GOP for some time. Incompetence is the stock-in-trade of the Trump Administration.
We are not going to become a socialist country. Socialism has never worked because it defies human behavior. So you end up needing more and more authoritarian measures to force humans into doing what they are not naturally built for.
There is only one socialist institution in America, and that is the family. We run our families on socialist ideas. Love is the reward.
Whether AGI happens in two or twenty years, if it comes, it will cause havoc. Dislocation will be the feeling, and some jobs will be eliminated. If they can build a robot with human-like hands that walks normally, it would have huge ramifications.
The difference between a China that looms over the world and an America that loomed over the world has no comparison. We rebuilt the world and created institutions that fit naturally into liberal democratic capitalism. We used to want to help and support democracies; we built institutions that help third-world nations. Whatever China is doing, it is not doing so to help mankind. It is fulfilling its dream of global domination. Taking its rightful place as the most powerful nation in to world. It is doing so, while it sits on a pile of corruption and genocide.
That nation may be able to push its way around, but it won’t be admired. MAGA has destroyed whatever goodwill America had. Trump is just hastening our slide.
The Genesis Project? Laughable, this is a man who destroys science. Trump is Godzilla marching through our institutions that made America great, while ruining them. You cannot be a great leader and be morally bankrupt. Eventually, it catches up with you.
I’m very thankful for your writing, Noah. Every time I see a new post in my inbox, it’s like a little present I get to unwrap.
Hope you have many more productive years ahead. And if you’re ever in the Palo Alto area, I’d love to buy you a beer.
Cheers, sir!
Wow, thank you!!
Congratulations and great work! Happy Thanksgiving.
Thanks!
"Five years ago, I made the (questionable) decision to launch my Substack over Thanksgiving weekend."
Mistake to launch (unlikely)?
Or mistake to launch at Thanksgiving?
If the latter, why? Thanksgiving feels like it might be a surge moment for people reading blogs.
The latter. I thought it might be a surge moment, but in fact readership was pretty low!
A great year of endlessly interesting articles from the best thinker and communicator on the interwebs. Come to Melbourne Australia Noah! I will throw you a party.
Noah, do you think you’ll look back at this post and regret not including anything on AI capabilities? IMO that feels like a big gap here.
Well, it's something I don't know much about, but other people know a lot about!!
The AI boom accelerating may flip the game board
Great post Noah! I too am pretty bullish on America bouncing back and solving a lot of our issues.
There are 3 things I'll slightly disagree with you on though.
1 - You say that the MAGA movement feels strangely weak and that MAGA isn't building anything new and its mostly just online rage. I don't really agree with that. The constitutional attacks on all of us whether it be free speech or DHS being able to arrest you because you speak Spanish, and general continued enablement of the executive branch by SCOTUS and Congress are big issues and most Republicans aren't outraged by any of this behaviour and think Trump should keep doing it. Even the fact that the majority of Republicans now think that soldiers and Fed Gov employees should be loyal to Trump, not the Constitution or laws (see the reaction to ships being blown up in Venezuela) is alarming. Additionally, Turning Point USA is a huge organization across the nation on college campuses and in some high schools. I don't see them going away, and then we have the whole Groyper movement which seems to be radicalizing a lot of young men. I think if the election was held again with all the knowledge people have now, Trump would still win because Republicans are overall way more socially regressive than they let on. It seems that they are fine with some authoritarianism as long as they win.
2 - I don't think anyone wants a recession outside of the crazy people who somehow think they won't be affected, or the people that are accelerationists'. However, you say that the AI driven burst probably won't happen in 2026 at all because they are still mostly using their own cash. That is true, but what if the models just don't keep improving and these companies start to just invest a little bit more slowly, won't that slow down the entire thing? Either way we don't know much yet, but I think it'll be tough to know especially if we go another quarter without quality jobs or government reporting.
3 - Can we say that Trump successfully brokered a ceasefire in Gaza when it seems people keep getting blown up and kids keep getting shot every week?
Happy Holidays and a late Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
Cheers, Noah! 💚 🥃