128 Comments
User's avatar
Nathan Smith's avatar

The Putin comparison actually gives him too much credit. Putin has long been more popular than Trump ever was, and for a while he did provide stability in a country that had suffered from a lot of chaos. Russians didn't understand-- didn't have the virtue to understand-- that if you trade liberty for security, you deserve neither and eventually lose both. But they had a lot more excuse for turning to authoritarianism than Americans do.

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

The man (Stepan Bandera) that Russia uses more than anyone else to argue that Ukraine is an inherently Nazi nation that must be destroyed, had his own variant of Benjamin Franklin's liberty-vs-security aphorism:

"Коли поміж хлібом і свободою народ обирає хліб, він зрештою втрачає все, в тому числі і хліб. Якщо народ обирає свободу, він матиме хліб, вирощений ним самим і ніким не відібраний."

(Translation: "When between bread and freedom, the people choose bread, they ultimately lose everything, including bread. If the people choose freedom, they will have bread grown by themselves and not taken away by anyone.")

I wonder how much you could explain the 2024 US election result by substituting "cheap eggs" for "bread" in Bandera's proverb?

Expand full comment
Ken Kovar's avatar

Yes those eggs are still hella expensive.

MAGA is an embarrassment for America in so many ways and it has no real future. I wish the same was true with Putin but he has done well enough for enough Russians that they are not kicking him out for the near term.

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

Putin of course had the advantage of operating in a society whose political culture had been firmly autocratic for at least the last half-millennium – Ukrainian nationalism is in many ways a reaction against that culture.

And Russia in the '90s was also royally screwed by the Soviet Empire's division of labor: its main products were oil and gas (whose world market price was low at the time) and weapons (practically worthless when the whole world was looking for a peace dividend).

Expand full comment
Dhonz's avatar
3dEdited

I agree with this - I remember when some Russian friends I knew talked glowingly of Putin. They told me that life was absolutely miserable in the 90s compared to ~2010 for the middle class in Moscow. Relative improvement in living standards matters a lot. Trump 1.0 was popular because the economy still continued to improve from 2016 to 2020. Inheriting a solid economy in Jan 2025 and ruining it by June 2025 will not be accepted by Americans. If there is one thing Americans do not deal with well, it is scarcity.

I sometimes joke with my friends that the one clear way to spark a revolution in this country is to simply have eggs be unavailable at any grocery store. You'll have caravans from Arizona and Texas starting up tomorrow if that were the case heading to DC.

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

True except that the improvement in Russian living standards in the '00s was overwhelmingly on the back of rising fossil fuel prices, rather than anything Putin did.

Expand full comment
Joel M's avatar

Agreed. I think the only way that MAGA and Trump are thoroughly discredited is for the US to suffer a severe economic downturn. I just hate that those of us who didn’t vote for him will have to suffer too.

Expand full comment
John Murphy's avatar

Yeah, Putin genuinely inherited a badly-broken country - the collapse of the Soviet Union followed by kleptocracy and chaos under Yeltsin did a number on Russia. For all the overheated rhetoric about "woke" the worst that happened in the United States was that some very silly people instituted some very silly policies in the context of a more-or-less highly functioning economy.

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

Last time they tried those "very silly" policies of racial discrimination it led to mass riots and unrest that forced the government to remove those policies. And that was when they used them against 15% of the population who couldn't vote. Instead of learning a lesson, the same political party tried those very silly policies again, but this time against 60% of the population who very much can vote. It doesn't take a genius to predict that it would lead to a very silly outcome.

Expand full comment
Noah's avatar

It sounds like youre saying non-blacks faced measures similar to Jim Crow at the hands of the woke, which would demonstrate a truly extreme and hyperbolic victim mindset, with a very shallow understanding of history .... basically similar in tone to the fringe wokists

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

You hit one man with a firehose and set the dogs on him for his race and you deny another a promotion in favor of a less qualified coworker for his. You've made an enemy either way and moral comparisons between the means of making those enemies is completely irrelevant to that fact.

Expand full comment
John Murphy's avatar

If wokeness was really preventing the promotion of more-qualified people, then why is the Trump administration - by all accounts not woke AT ALL - so inundated, even saturated, with utter incompetence?

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

You and I both know that political appointments are never done by merit by any administration of any party because they are by their very nature political. Yes, certain Trump administration appointees take this to an egregious and unprecedented (in recent history) level. No, this is not at all relevant to anything I am talking about and you know it.

Expand full comment
John Laver's avatar

"Love builds up and unites; hate tears down and destroys." M.L.King Jr. "Advice for Living, November 1957"

Expand full comment
Roland Bitterli's avatar

MAGA is definitely not a conservative but rather a deeply cultural reactive movement that happened to hijack the conservative party.

Expand full comment
John Murphy's avatar

I just listened to the interview Dan Carlin did with Mike Rowe on the Hardcore History Addendum podcast, and it dovetailed so neatly with what Noah’s saying here, but also adds one piece of important context I hadn’t known: even before all the tariff nonsense, there were hundreds of thousands of open manufacturing and construction jobs that were already going unfilled. Even if Trump were right that what he’s doing would induce domestic manufacturing to build capacity, we wouldn’t have the people to do it! MAGA being a largely online isolationist movement is a big part of why it’s not moving the needle: it’s not doing the cultural work of making these jobs attractive to the people who might do them, because the MAGA movement is itself made up of people who disdain the kind of work that needs to be done.

Expand full comment
Joel M's avatar

I have worked in manufacturing for 30 years, my entire career. My company pays very well and has excellent benefits. In recent years we have struggled to find good workers. Few people under the age of 40 want to work in a factory. They will go to work somewhere like Amazon for less pay.

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

That's shocking, given that I was sure that Amazon had a reputation as being (like Walmart) an especially bad place to work.

Expand full comment
Ken Zinn's avatar

Your postscript mentions "no religion" but we see pervasive Trump Worship in MAGA. The idolatry of Trump by his followers is mind boggling.

Expand full comment
Kenny Easwaran's avatar

But not in a way that leads to Trump temples or Trump prayer circles or reading groups to study Donald Trump Though - just atomized at-home on-Twitter worship.

Expand full comment
KetamineCal's avatar

We saw glimpses of QAnon trying to become a MAGA religion. But it turns out that there's no need to cloak the grift in anything.

Expand full comment
Jon's avatar

You're right about their approach being a form of sterilisation and I think that's why MAGA supporters have stayed at home. They're sitting back and watching exactly what they wanted to see by voting for Trump: other people suffering. What are you going to do? Decency and cruelty like most other human attributes are on a normal distribution curve, so half the population are more than averagely cruel - and they get a vote, too. And it's not just the US. In the UK we may be only a few years out from an election which votes in the Reform Party: an unholy alliance of shysters, egotists, racists, crypto-fascists and thugs. That'll be fun - for people who enjoyed pulling the legs off insects when they were kids.

Expand full comment
Jeff Giesea's avatar

The tech bro thesis for supporting Trump 2.0 isn’t looking so good

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

Our society is run by computer. I can't speak to exactly what the original tech bro thesis was, but if you tear down the existing institutional structure of our society and the dominant class who built it, it does seem likely that the new dominant class to emerge from the fray would be those who control the computers. Maybe the tech bro thesis for Trump 2.0 is looking better than ever.

Expand full comment
John's avatar

A comment on your footnote that MAGA, unlike Hitler, is not building social structures or clubs. Last night was the inaugural party of the Executive Branch Club founded by Don Jr. and a bunch of billionaire friends. So, you know, give MAGA some credit.

Expand full comment
Mabelman's avatar

Wow! Amazing piece Noah. Well said.

Expand full comment
Miles's avatar
3dEdited

The federal moves against green energy are the most infuriating thing to me. As a purely practical matter, only GOOD can come from greater domestic energy production. It's a complete culture-war own-goal to reduce energy production.

Expand full comment
Buzen's avatar

The federal moves against it are just removing subsidies, aren’t they? Trump doesn’t understand much about anything, but even though he hates windmills, he hasn’t explicitly banned them. Same thing with electric cars, no ban, just a removal of subsidies and hopefully ending the California ban on ICE cars, which Biden refused to limit from being taken nationwide.

Expand full comment
Miles's avatar

no, check the links Noah had above.

Trump is blocking the permitting needed for the projects. https://clearpath.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/44/2025/02/Trump-Halts-Renewables-Permitting-on-Private-Land_-Energy-Brief.pdf

Expand full comment
Buzen's avatar

That describes a US Army Corp of Engineers freeze on Clean Water Act permits for solar and wind projects on private land, which as usual is environmental regulations blocking energy production. Biden also did a similarly bad freeze on LNG export terminals causing Europe to use more coal for electricity production. If we got rid of expanded executive orders, and reduced environmental permitting regulations we could have more energy, but on the bright side Trump is crashing the economy, so we won’t actually need much more energy.

Expand full comment
Warden Gulley's avatar

The final sentence is reminiscent of Nicholas Maduro's comment about Venezuela's toilet paper shortage. "It will be OK because Venezuelans are now eating less". At that time there was also a food shortage and many were hungry. I guess it's operational economics in which the input equals the output.

Expand full comment
Miles's avatar

Liking in that I agree, but obviously disliking all of this!

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

MAGA supporters are wedded to fossil fuels in particular for various reasons.

Expand full comment
Kenny Easwaran's avatar

It’s one thing to be wedded to fossil fuels for sentimental reasons. It’s another to say that other people shouldn’t be allowed to build solar and wind.

Expand full comment
Miles's avatar

any of them explainable reasons?

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

One reason is that fossil extraction provides opportunities (eg oil rig worker) for poorly-educated but risk-tolerant men to earn big money, which is highly appealing to a movement as macho as MAGA.

Expand full comment
Miles's avatar

Actually that tracks... Bringing back more familiar jobs versus moving ahead to jobs of the future :( Sad to me, but I see how they get there.

Expand full comment
Warden Gulley's avatar

all those explanations are credible. It's always more complicated than a single cause. One additional contributing factor is tribal affiliation. Tribal fealty ofttimes has nothing to do with reality, fact and logic except when it sweeps aside all rational thought and exterminates truth.

Expand full comment
Ronan Barry's avatar

Interesting. Although I'd understood the Strauss-Howe thesis to foretell first an upending of existing institutions followed by a renaissance of sorts. In that respect, MAGA is the tear it all down phase and whatever comes next will get to build the future. This will presumably by a decade (or two) long process.

Expand full comment
Matchetes's avatar

Correct. The Fourth Turning is specifically described as a destruction of institutions followed by a rebuild. If anything MAGA arrived right on schedule

Expand full comment
Michael Haley's avatar

I think you are right on this, and there was a lot of destruction under Biden as well, the border comes to mind, identity politics became more about punishing whites than uplifting minorities, etc. It was more of a social destruction.

I think the fourth turning is just taking a lot longer than people expect, and their every twenty years, generation thing is less precise than they formulated it. I expect this mess to continue til 2040, maybe longer.

I would also note that there is a lot of creation going on in the midst of the destruction, it is not pure destruction.

Expand full comment
Matchetes's avatar

Right I think institutional churn is probably a better description. Using the 4th turning framing, which I have a healthy amount of skepticism for but I feel has been right more often than not, Biden's attempt at physical infrastructure rebuilding had some success but failed to lead us out of the wilderness because there is still too much rot in the system and Biden didn't have the force of personality to sell the national project to the public

Expand full comment
Ronan Barry's avatar

Yeas but the problem with MAGA is that it’s destroying, not just America’s failing institutions, but all the sources of American power and prosperity. It risks burning itself out and ceding to something else to write the future. Trump’s second MAGA outing is a kamikaze mission.

Expand full comment
Matchetes's avatar

I never endorsed any of this

Expand full comment
John Woods's avatar

Think of the experience of the UK in 2022 where a majority of members of the Conservative Party voted for Liz Truss to be Prime Minister. She appointed a Chancellor of the Exchequer who produced a budget which the Financial Services sector thought would bankrupt the economy. Truss sacked her Chancellor and resigned herself after 49 days in office. How long before the American Financial Sector decide that Trump is working against their interests. America benefits from an enormous flow of foreign investment which could easily be switched off. This will resolve the Trump problem for America and the West.

Expand full comment
George Carty's avatar

I regard the sorry Liz Truss saga as a demonstration of the superiority of parliamentary systems over presidential ones.

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

If the American financial sector had such a tight control over the US government, we wouldn't be nearly this poorly governed.

Expand full comment
Buzen's avatar

Well, I doubt Trump would ever resign, especially under pressure, but when the shelves are empty in June because over 60% of Chinese imports are no longer on the way across the Pacific, there will be growing pressure against him. Businesses will run out of components and raw materials, truckers will be idle and even the most American made car (Tesla Model 3) can’t be produced without rare earth metals for their motors. Farmers will not be able to export because of retaliatory tariffs and collapsed shipping, Trump will bail them out with subsidies further increasing our debt, and causing inflation to come back, and without growth that means stagflation and recession. A blue summer is coming, it’s dusk in America.

Expand full comment
Ken Kovar's avatar

Clearly we wish we could trussify Trump 😡

Expand full comment
Warden Gulley's avatar

Trump is making a grand attempt to build an authoritarian future. Hopefully, America will awaken in time and return to building and creating a future for itself rather than slithering into subjugation.

Expand full comment
KetamineCal's avatar

The Trump rhetoric is, "We will tear everything down and replace it greater than before." The Trump experience is, "We will tear everything down, half-ass the replacement, and skim off the top." As you said, Russia.

Expand full comment
sifrca's avatar
2dEdited

“I know some people like to draw analogies between MAGA and the Nazi movement in 1930’s Germany, but while Trump is certainly an authoritarian, the Nazis actually tried to build a new fascist civilization. Hitler built the Autobahn, Volkswagen, and many other pieces of infrastructure and industry. The Nazis also filled their society with social and cultural institutions — the Hitler Youth, the German Faith Movement, Strength Through Joy, and countless others in every walk of life.”

“Say what you will about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude. At least it’s an ethos!”

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

Did this happen before or after they were firmly in control of the state? It's hard to discern what the Trump faction really wants to do because they don't have anywhere close to the level of control over state power that they would need to implement any of those things.

Expand full comment
Ken Kovar's avatar

Great big Lebowski quote 😎

Expand full comment
Nathan Smith's avatar

The irony right now is that it might take some kind of a revolution to reestablish conservatism. Previous American presidents have respected the Constitution. Now that that norm's broken, how can it be restored? Why should future presidents respect the Constitution? It would be nice if the answer were, "Because if you don't, the streets will explode, and you'll be overthrown by angry patriots." But if that's the equilibrium we want, we have our work cut out for us to get there.

Expand full comment
Treeamigo's avatar

Have you been under a rock for the last 20 years?

How many 9-0 defeats did Obama suffer at SCOTUS (meaning his own appointees voted against his lawless decrees)?

Where were you when Biden claimed the right to spend hundreds of billions not appropriated by Congress (student loan handouts), and deliberately ignored the intent of two SCOTUS rulings against him, even bragging that “the Supreme Court tried to stop him but they couldn’t”- before they ruled against his third attempt to undermine the constitution?

America has been ruled by deceee for some time. Blind partisans love it when “their guy (or gal)” is dictator, but then suddenly remember the constitution when they are out of power. Pathetic, really.

Expand full comment
Nathan Smith's avatar

But when the Supreme Court ruled against Biden, he stopped. And anyway, it was far less of an aggressive push. No "dictator on day one.'

Expand full comment
William Ellis's avatar

I see a big difference in degree.

Expand full comment
Treeamigo's avatar

To me the biggest difference is incoherence. When Biden’s staff put the latest decree under his nose to sign (or maybe just put it under the auto pen), they knew exactly which activists wrote it, who paid for it, and what the intent was. When it comes to all the tariff decrees it doesn’t seem as though even Trump is clear on the intent. Much more chaotic and less predictable

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

> Previous American presidents have respected the Constitution.

Tell me you don't know American history without telling me you don't know American history.

Expand full comment
Nathan Smith's avatar

Oh come on, don't be obtuse. There's plenty of room to quibble, but before 2020, when you lost an election, you gave up power peacefully. One of many examples. Again, if you're going to claim that Trump isn't challenging, abusing, and violating the Constitution in a way that's unprecedented, severe, and flagrant, then you just need to read more and think more. There's plenty of places you can learn. Lots of people are writing about it these days.

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

"John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it!"

- Andrew Jackson

Expand full comment
Nathan Smith's avatar

The statement seems to be apocryphal, but it's true that Jackson treated the Cherokees very unjustly, against Supreme Court instructions. Even so, it's nowhere near as flagrantly unconstitutional as stirring up a crowd to attack the Capitol to prevent the transfer of power after losing an election, or plotting a third term directly contrary to the 22nd amendment, or issuing an executive order contrary to the 14th amendmeny, etc.

Trump supporters endlessly fall back on whataboutism to try to fend off condemnations of Trump. One problem with that is that two wrongs don't make a right. The other is that the whataboutism is unconvincing. The supposed precedents for Trump's misconduct never turn out, in examination, to be nearly as bad.

Expand full comment
Jonathan Foxman's avatar

My reading of the "Fourth Turning" is not simply that new institutions will be created. Rather, the old order will erode, fail, and ultimately give way to a profoundly different new order, likely through significant upheaval. It won't be like Indiana Jones trying to smoothly switch an ancient artifact for a sandbag of equal weight. It will be more like the first half of the 20th century when a world of great empires gave way to the current Western world order. Can you really say at this point that's not what's coming?

Expand full comment
Michael Haley's avatar

yes, it is going to take a lot longer than people realize

Expand full comment
Fallingknife's avatar

The "western world order" is just a new great empire, not a fundamental change. But the rest of your point stands.

Expand full comment
Jonathan Foxman's avatar

Fair, though it is a pretty big change to have the break up of the Austrian-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian empires and the very significant diminishing of the French and British empires all replaced by US hegemony and post-WW2 alliances and institutions.

Expand full comment