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David in Tokyo's avatar

Long story short: The current round of AI is, intellectually, on the level of parlor tricks. There's no intellectual, theoretical, or scientific there there. Really, there isn't. (This is easy for me to say: I have an all-but-thesis in AI from Roger Schank.)

AI, originally, was defined to be a branch of psychology in which computation (the mathematical abstraction) would be used to analyze and theorize about various human capabilities, and computers (real devices) would be used to verify that analisys/resultant theories. But AI grew a monster other half whose goal was to make computers do interesting things. With no intellectual basis or theoretical/academic concerns whatsoever.

It is this other half of the field that has taken over.

Slightly longer story: It turns out that we humans really do think; we actually do logical reasoning about things in the real world quite well. But we (1980s AI types) couldn't figure out how to persuade computers to do this logical reasoning. Simple logic was simply inadequate, and it turns out that people really are seriously amazing. (Animals are far more limited than most people think: there is no animal other than humans, that understands that sex causes pregnancy and pregnancy leads to childbirth. Animals can "understand" that the tiny thing in front of them is cute and needs care, but that realizing that it has a father is not within their intellectual abilities.)

So the field gave up on even trying, and reverted to statistical computation with no underlying models. The dream is that if you can find the statistical relationship, you don't need to understand what's going on. This leaves the whole game at essentially a parlor trick level: when the user thinks that the "object recognition" system has recognized a starfish, the neural net has actually recognized the common textures that occurred in all the starfish images.

So here's the "parlor trick" bit: the magician doesn't actually do the things he claims to do, neither do the AI programs. (The 1970s and 1980s programs from Minsky an Schank and other labs actually tried to do the things they claimed to do.) And just as getting better and better at making silver dollars appear in strange places doesn't lead to an ability to actually make silver dollars, better and better statistics really isn't going to lead to understanding how intelligent beings build quite good and effective models of the world in their heads and reason using those models.

So while AI isn't incomprehensible (it's a collection of parlor tricks), it is an intellectual horror show.

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Lyric Hughes Hale's avatar

At this point I am willing to give the AI aliens a chance.

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