Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Ning's avatar

One reason China hit the slowdown at an earlier stage surely is due to its sheer size. Japan was 100 million or so. SK, Taiwan, fractions of that. All relied on exports driven to grow fast.

But you need a large external market for that, and the larger the ROW is relative to you the longer you can extend that period. That's probably why Singapore can do it indefinitely, and China hits a wall at circa 35% of US GDP. Because ROW relative to China is much smaller, compared to Taiwan, Japan, SK.

Expand full comment
DxS's avatar

Japan's growth plummeted after its crash, but Korea kept growing fast even after 1998.

Should we expect China in 20 years to have income up just 50% like post-89 Japan, or up 250% like post-98 Korea?

One billion people with average income of $21,000 is very different from one billion people with average income of $42,000.

Expand full comment
22 more comments...

No posts